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Author Topic: Future Earth  (Read 62097 times)

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AGelbert

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Re: Future Earth
« Reply #240 on: August 05, 2017, 01:26:58 pm »
Agelbert NOTE: The following average temperature at 2 meters  projection for the year 2100 on the RCP 8.5 (highly optimistic IPCC "business as usual" scenario) ECM (Environmental Change Model) scenario is adapted from Birkel, 2010 (PhD. Dissertation).

Since 2010, we have learned that the follwing scenario will arrive about 50 years earlier than Birkel estimated. So, what you see below is what those alive will most likely experience in 2050, NOT in the year 2100. Have a nice day.


Quote
The most likely RCP of those presented is the 8.5 pathway, in the sense that it most closely resembles our observations so far. If anything, it looks quite optimistic right now.

It's hard to call any RCP truly unobtainable. If we'd invent a miraculous carbon "vacuum cleaner" tomorrow and decide to completely crash the world economy the day after tomorrow, so that we'd have negative worldwide emissions very soon, then we could probably follow the 2.6 trajectory. That is, however, very unlikely.

Realistically and unscientifically speaking, the completely disasterous RCP 8.5 pathway is a good-case scenario. The pretty disasterous RCP 6.0 pathway is a very-good-case scenario.

https://www.reddit.com/r/climate/comments/2tvwfr/what_rcp_are_we_headed_for/

He that loveth father or mother more than me is not worthy of me: and he that loveth son or daughter more than me is not worthy of me. Matt 10:37

 

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