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91
Climate Lab Book

What would I say to COP26?

November 9, 2021 communication Ed Hawkins 👍

The recent 6th Assessment Report of Working Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the result of years of diligent assessment of the latest scientific evidence on climate change building on several previous similar assessments. It was written by hundreds of authors, and openly reviewed by thousands of experts. Every word of the Summary for Policymakers was agreed by all 195 parties to the UNFCCC and at COP26.

The report is clear that the world has warmed by around 1.1°C since the industrial revolution, and that this is due to human activities, primarily burning fossil fuels. As a direct consequence, heatwaves and heavy rainfall events have become more frequent and more intense. As the oceans have warmed and the ice sheets have melted, sea levels have risen, increasing the risk of coastal flooding. Our past greenhouse gas emissions have caused changes of the climate which have harmed both human society and ecosystems.

We are at a crossroads.

The global choices being made now determine what happens to the climate next.

A pathway of immediate, strong, rapid, sustained and large-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions would hold global warming to well below 2°C. If emissions are halved by 2030 and reach net-zero by around 2050 then there is a reasonable chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C. Such reductions in greenhouse gas and particulate emissions would also bring additional benefits through slowing ocean acidification and improving air quality.

Reaching net-zero emissions will halt global warming but, for some consequences, there is no going back. For example, sea level will continue to rise for centuries but the rate of change can be slowed through emission reductions. There is a small chance that sea level rise could rapidly accelerate if the Antarctic ice sheet is less stable than anticipated and every bit of warming increases the risk of this and other unexpected events.

For over 150 years the scientific community has understood the theory of how adding additional greenhouse gases to the atmosphere would warm the planet. Global warming was first observed and linked to rising carbon dioxide levels in the 1930s, and the IPCC assessed that there was a discernible influence of human activity on the rise in temperatures in 1995.

In 2021, the scientific community has again assessed the latest evidence from theory, measurements, and state-of-the-art simulations of our planet. We are certain that human actions have changed the climate and that we are already experiencing the consequences, especially though changes to extreme weather.

Every further tonne of greenhouse gas added to the atmosphere raises the planet’s temperature and makes the climatic consequences more severe. Each country faces different risks from the changing climate and every bit of warming avoided in future will limit those risks. Improving resilience and adapting to the ongoing changes will also reduce further suffering.

The global choices being made now matter, for all of us and for many generations to come.

Or in very short form:
If we choose not to act,
Or fail to adapt,
Then suffer we will.


Note: this is my personal summary of the science contained in IPCC AR6 WGI and the implications.


About Ed Hawkins
Climate scientist in the National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS) at the University of Reading. IPCC AR5 Contributing Author. Can be found on twitter too: @ed_hawkins View all posts by Ed Hawkins →
http://www.climate-lab-book.ac.uk/2021/what-would-i-say-to-cop26/




92
Advances in Health Care / COVID-19 WEEKLY UPDATE with Emphasis on Vermont
« Last post by AGelbert on February 16, 2022, 01:47:11 pm »
February 16, 2022

COVID-19 WEEKLY UPDATE with Emphasis on Vermont

SOURCES for the Stats: 🦉
COVID-19 Vermont Public Dashboard
COVID-19 Dashboard by CSSE at Johns Hopkins University

ONE YEAR AGO TODAY:
93
Renewables / Electric Everything, Part 4 — Buses, Trucks, Trailers, And More!
« Last post by AGelbert on February 15, 2022, 07:16:54 pm »
CleanTechnica

February 15, 2022 By Arthur Frederick (Fritz) HaslerP

Electric Everything, Part 4 — Buses, Trucks, Trailers, And More!

In parts one, two, and three of this “Electric Everything” series, I listed 43 things that have been electrified, mostly in recent years — from tiny scooters to giant ferries and ships, and everything in between. If we want to save the planet, we must electrify everything as soon as possible and convert to clean electricity generation.

Mark Jacobson of Stanford University has written a series of articles with more or less the title “100% Energy from Wind, Water, and Solar.” His first article was published in Scientific American in 2009. In March of 2011, “Providing all global energy with wind, water, and solar power … Part I” was written. In addition, in 2015, Jacobson first published a roadmap of renewable energy from wind, water, and solar (WWS) for all US 50 states. He has since published road maps for providing 100% energy supplies from wind, water, and solar for every US state and 46 countries minute by minute. This is especially relevant because wind and solar are intermittent sources and clean electricity generation must meet demand. We need to build out the electrical grid to transmit clean power over long distances. We also need to build out pumped water storage to fill in the gaps in wind and solar generation. Read Jacobson for the explanation for rejecting nuclear or any other source from the mix.

The bottom line is that Jacobson has presented a path where the entire global electrical energy supply can be derived 100% from clean sources. When first presented, the cost of converting to such a system would have required expenditures on the order of magnitude of what the US spent for WWII. In the meantime, the cost of wind and solar power generation has become so cheap that this conversion will be cheaper than continuing to generate power using fossil fuel.

Conversion from fossil fuel generation to clean generation will happen eventually through normal economics. However, to save the planet, this needs to be accelerated by government subsidies and regulation.

Jacobson makes the case that everything — including all vehicles, building heating, steel production, and cement production — must also be converted to 100% electric power. The states of California and Washington got the message. They have passed regulations that no fossil gas lines can be connected to new construction.

As individuals, we have little power to speed the conversion of industrial sources of power to electricity. However, we can assume that there will be dramatic progress towards clean electrical power generation. We can assume that any electricity we consume as individuals will eventually come from totally clean sources. In the meantime, we can help turn the tide away from fossil fuel toward 100% electric power consumption.

What we can do as individuals is reduce our own consumption of power as much as possible and convert the rest to 100% electricity.

Individuals should start with the biggest or at least the easiest things first:

֍ 1. Upgrade your house to use as little energy as possible through increased insulation, low-heat-loss windows, and sealing of all air leaks.
֍ 2. Convert all light bulbs to LEDs. (LEDs use 1/10 the power of incandescent bulbs.)
֍ 3. Convert gas stovetops to electricity if needed.
֍ 4. Replace all fossil-fuel-consuming vehicles with electric vehicles.
֍ 5. Replace your gas furnace with a heat pump.
֍ 6. Replace your water heater with a heat pump.
֍ 7. Convert all yard and workshop tools to battery electric.
֍ 8. Install solar panels on your roof so that the electricity you use now comes from a clean source and you don’t have to wait for the power grid to become clean.
֍ 9. Install a home electricity storage system from companies like Tesla and Generac for backup power in emergencies and complete independence from your local power company.

Figure 1: Photo taken soon after I had solar panels installed on my house in Lindon, Utah. I could then say: I’m driving my EV on sunshine. March 12, 2016. Photo by Fritz Hasler.

Converting your fossil gas furnace was something I covered in part two. Replacing your gasoline-burning car is covered in parts one, two, three, and four. I installed solar panels on my roof 8 years ago. At that time, it cost $20,000 for my 20 panel system after the federal government subsidy. Solar power prices have dropped almost 90% in the last 10 years, so you could spend much less for a new installation. Even with an electric car, my electric bill is as low as $10/month in the spring when sun is already high in the sky but air conditioning isn’t needed. I have saved many thousands of dollars over the last 8 years.

Challenges for Converting All Vehicles to Electricity

Cost: The cost of EVs is coming down and will reach parity within the next five years. In some classes, they are already at parity. Also, the fuel and maintenance costs for EVs are much lower, so the total cost of ownership is already at parity or far past it.

Cross country driving: The Tesla Supercharging network already makes it practical to drive a Tesla cross-country. Cross-country driving for other brands will be possible in the next five years. Also, Tesla plans to open its Supercharging network to other brands. at least in some regions.

Charging: Those with garages wired for 220-volt service can install “quick charging” for about $200. If needed, it will cost about $500 depending on the distance to run 220 volt AC to your garage. A splitter for the clothes dryer outlet will solve the problem for others. If you live in a condo, work with other residents to get power extended to your parking garage. If getting 220 volt service is prohibitively expensive or impossible, or just not needed, you can charge at 110 volts for local driving and use nearby fast charging or Supercharging for longer trips. Those with on-street parking may be able to run a power cord from the house to the street. Others will have to rely exclusively on nearby fast charging.

Supplemental Products

There are a couple of specific products or concepts that can support electrifying transport that I have not yet covered. See below.

Range Extenders and Electric Trailers

When the first electrified vehicles came out with the Toyota Prius in 1997, the batteries were so small that you were lucky to proceed at idle speed for a few minutes solely on electric power. Enterprising owners rigged up trailers with battery packs or generators to increase the all-electric range of their cars.

Figure 2: EV range extender trailer. Image courtesy of EP Tender.

As you can see in Figure 2, range-extending trailers are still available today for making long trips in short-range cars. From personal experience, I know that I have lost 40% of my range by putting two big e-bikes on the back of my long-range Tesla Model 3. I can still travel cross-country, but I must plan carefully. You can imagine how much range you would lose pulling a decent-sized trailer. The obvious solution is to pull a trailer that has its own electric drive system. One company has developed just the electric drive system, and Air Stream has developed the whole package.

Figure 3: eStream electric drive trailer. Image courtesy of Airstream.

The Airstream eStream senses the speed and acceleration of the towing vehicle and adjusts its power assist accordingly. It also comes with a remote so that you can park the trailer without using the tow vehicle. The battery is big enough to match the range of the towing vehicle.

Everything Electric Updates

Since the first three parts of “Everything Electric” were written, there has been further progress in electrification.

Electric Aircraft

Figure 4: Embraer prototype electric aircraft. Artwork by Embraer.

Numerous companies are now developing vertical takeoff and conventional tube electric aircraft with either battery or fuel cell power sources. Some of the companies are Embraer, Eviation, magniX, Pipistrela, Bye Aerospace, Ampaire, Zunum Aero, and Heart Aerospace. Heart Aerospace has taken orders for 200 planes from United Airlines. Look into those companies’ websites or social media accounts for continuing news on what they are doing. One spicy piece of news regarding Eviation is that, even as it is approaching a historic first flight, the CEO has been ousted.

Electric Freight Locomotives

Figure 5: Rio Tinto orders electric locomotives. Image courtesy of Wabtech.

Especially in North America and Australia, very few routes have overhead pantograph power delivery systems. Therefore, in those areas, another delivery system is needed for electrification. Numerous companies are converting diesel electric freight train locomotives to battery or fuel cell power. Companies like Wabtech are taking orders for e-locomotives in Canada, Australia, and Europe. Just this year already, Wabtech has taken orders from BHP Western Australia Iron Ore (WAIO), Rio Tinto, Union Pacific Railroad, and perhaps others.

Tesla Progress

Figure 6: Tesla Texas Gigafactory. Photo courtesy of Tesla.

Tesla has immense factories in Austin, Texas, and Berlin, Germany, that have completed construction and are on the verge of starting serial production. Both factories have produced a small number of finished Model Y vehicles. Tesla delivered 936,132 vehicles and produced almost as many in 2021. If the Austin and Berlin factories gear up quickly, Tesla should reach a rate of 2 million vehicles/year soon. Auto companies around the world are making massive increases in the number and types of EVs to be produced in 2022 and beyond, still led by Tesla.


EV Market Share Keeps Growing

In December 2021, plugin electric vehicle sales in Norway were 90% of auto sales. In Sweden, they were 54.3%; in Germany, 34.7%; in the Netherlands, 30%; in China, 21.3%; and in California, probably 15%. The world and California have reached the tipping point and the rest of the US will follow soon.

My advice for individuals: Don’t buy another gas vehicleYou don’t want to get stuck with a fossil gasoline car that has no resale value.

Electric Truck Progress

Figure 7: Kenworth electric trucks. Image courtesy of Kenworth.

When Tesla revealed two prototype battery electric semis in 2017, many observers thought the idea was preposterous. In some sense, they were correct, since here we are 5 years later and Tesla has yet to begin serial production. It seems Tesla delivered a few prototypes to PepsiCo recently, but true serial production won’t happen until 2023, because Tesla’s new, denser, more powerful battery cells won’t be prolific enough until then. However, numerous other companies — like Kenworth (See Figure 7), Volvo, Mercedes, Rivian, Chrysler Ram, Arrival, BYD, Daimler, Ford, Nikola, Workhorse — and many others are already building or planning to build battery electric trucks.

Electric School Bus Progress

Figure 8: Electric school buses. Image courtesy of Lion Electric.

There are nearly 500,000 school buses in the US. School buses are only used for a few hours every day and sit idle for hours when kids are at school as well as at night. Many have very short routes. Idling school buses subject young children to harmful combustion products. For these reasons, school buses are an ideal place for electrification. However, as of now, only a very small fraction of US buses are electric drive.

At this time, there are 1700 electric school buses in the US. Most states have at least one or two. California has 850 and Maryland has 331. The important thing is the tide is beginning to turn. The recently passed US Infrastructure Bill allocates $5 billion to upgrade school buses, with half set aside for zero-emission buses. This will mean that we will reach the tipping point on the conversion of school buses from fossil fuel to battery electric.

$6 Billion Contract for New USPS Vehicles: Fossil Gasoline or Battery Electric?

Figure 9: Proposed electric US Postal Service vehicle. Image courtesy of Workhorse.

The USPS has more that 230,000 vehicles. 190,000 are the kind that we see delivering mail 6 days per week. Many of the current vehicles are 35 years old. President Biden has a goal of converting the entire current public and private fleet of vehicles to battery electric drive ASAP. What better way to start than to make all government vehicle purchases 100% electric. There is a $6 billion contract to update the current fleet of USPS vehicles, and Biden would love to see these all be electric. However, under the direction of Postmaster General 🦖 Louis DeJoy, a Trump appointee that Democrats would love to get rid of, the contract has been awarded to Oshkosh Defense, which has specified that only 10% of the new vehicles will be electric.

Will there be a happy ending?
https://cleantechnica.com/2022/02/15/electric-everything-part-4-some-updates/
94
Renewables / 🌞 12 QuadPod solar canopies spanning two parking lots,
« Last post by AGelbert on February 15, 2022, 06:07:54 pm »



FIRST SOLAR CANOPY IN OSSINING, NY FEATURES QUADPOD FROM QUEST RENEWABLES

SNIPPET:

At their Ossining, NY campus, Maryknoll Fathers & Brothers (Maryknoll) and Quest Renewables’ customer, Ecogy Energy (Ecogy), held a ribbon cutting ceremony to celebrate the completion of their innovative and community-focused solar canopy system on September 14, 2021. The 2,184-panel canopy system, consisting of 12 QuadPod solar canopies spanning two parking lots, offsets part of Maryknoll’s energy consumption with renewable energy and provides clean energy access and electricity bill discounts to local community members.

The canopy solar project provides Maryknoll with covered parking, downward-facing LED parking lot lighting to increase nighttime security and a visible green initiative— all while extending 10% electricity bill discounts to Maryknoll and local community members through community solar. Further, this system employs the best land-use practices as it is built atop already existing infrastructure and does not increase any impermeable surfaces. Additionally, this community solar project provides a unique window into clean energy for those who are not able to finance their own system or simply do not have the space to install it— thereby ensuring that access to clean energy is equitable and inclusive of all.

Read more: 
https://questrenewables.com/first-solar-canopy/
95
Catastrophic Climate Change / 🚩 Worst Drought in 1200 Years 🥺
« Last post by AGelbert on February 15, 2022, 01:39:48 pm »

Make Nexus Hot News part of your morning: click here to subscribe.

February 15, 2022

The American West is experiencing the worst drought in at least 1,200 years and climate change is responsible for 42 percent of its severity

The drought, which began in 2000 and has taken a toll on water supplies and fueled wildfires across the region, had previously been considered the worst in 500 years but a dramatic drying in 2021, when about two-thirds of the American West was in extreme drought, “really pushed it over the top,” A. Park Williams, a climate scientist and author of a new study, told the New York Times. “The drought conditions [are] substantially worse because of climate change, but there is quite a bit of room for [the drought] to get even worse” Park explained to the LA Times. Park and his colleagues examined tree rings at about 1,600 sites across the region, from Montana to California and northern Mexico.

The study, which was published in the journal Nature Climate Change, warns that we “need to be even preparing for conditions in the future that are far worse than this.” (AP, NPR, ABC, CNN, Axios, CNBC, The Hill, LA Times $, Wall Street Journal $, Bloomberg $, San Francisco Chronicle, New York Times $)
96
Fwbruay 14, 2022 By U.S. Department of Energy


NREL experts in transportation electrification are helping launch the new Joint Office of Energy and Transportation, a new federal office focused on strategically and equitably expanding EV infrastructure to create a national network so everyone can drive electric.

Agelbert COMMENT:
What we need NOW is to get people in to EVs. The last time I checked, 99.99999% of humans in the USA have electricity in their homes. Yes, a charging network is fine, but it is NOT as imperative as providing a REAL EV subsidy for we-the-people.

THIS is what we need all over the world NOW, but I'll settle for it to start in the USA:

1. All governments must provide an EV for 🦖 gas guzzlers consumer trade in program at no cost to the owner until all on road and off road vehicles that are not fueled by biofuels have been recycled.

2. Small engines, like those used for lawn mowers, leaf blowers or weed whackers are to be outlawed. All ordinances requiring lawns are to be outlawed. All lawn, gardening or snow removal power equipment must to be powered electrically, except for those work vehicles that run exclusively on biofuels (e.g. E100), without any other exceptions or grace period.

HOW will the above be funded? SEE BELOW: 🌞

3. All subsidies for fossil fuels are be declared null and void in every country in the world. All rigs, refineries, tanker trucks, pipelines and other fossil fuel industry plant and equipment are to be recycled within a five year period. The fossil fuel industry stock holders are to shoulder the cost of this. Corporate bankruptcies of fossil fuel corporations will not limit the liability of the corporation stock holders according to a worldwide proclamation of Force Majeure. Executives, board members and all other stock holders will be liable for all recycling costs according to ownership records over the last 50 years.

4. Military budgets are to be limited to no more than 5% of tax receipts. 😁

97


February 14, 2022 By BENGT HALVORSON

2022 Tesla Model 3

Tesla tops 10% market share in California—an eighth of EV maker’s global deliveries

SNIPPET:

Heard Californians say that the Model 3 is the new Prius?

No exaggeration, they’re everywhere . Tesla surged to a 10.5% market share in California in the fourth quarter of the year, and it maintained an overall 6.5% market share in California for all of 2021, compared to 2.1% for the U.S. as a whole.

The figures were part of a quarterly report released this past week by the California New Car Dealers Association. According to the fourth-quarter report, also rounding up 2021, Tesla registrations grew by nearly 70% from 2020 to 2021.

Full article:
https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1135057_tesla-market-share-california-ev-global-deliveries
98


MOSCOW, Feb 12, 2022 (Reuters)

The Russian Navy's guided missile cruiser Moskva and frigate Admiral Grigorovich are seen ahead of the Navy Day parade in the Black Sea port of Sevastopol, Crimea July 23, 2021. REUTERS/Alexey Pavlishak

More Than 30 Russian Ships Start Drills Near Crimea Peninsula

SNIPPETS:

More than 30 ships from the Russian Black Sea fleet have started training exercises near the Crimea peninsula as part of wider navy drills, RIA news agency reported on Saturday citing the fleet, as Western nations warned that a war in Ukraine could ignite at any moment. ... ...

Moscow denies any plan to invade, saying it is maintaining its own security against aggression by NATO allies.

read more:
 https://gcaptain.com/30-russian-ships-start-drills-crimea-peninsula/

February 14, 2022

The Russian Navy Udaloy-class destroyer RFS Admiral Panteleyev (BPK 548) arrives at Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam to participate in the Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) exercise 2012. (U.S. Navy photo by Sean Furey)

99


Feb 12, 2022 • by Wolf Richter • 208 Comments


🦖 RH Feb 13, 2022 at 2:23 am
I suspect that most EV makers and other “new technology” producers are Ponzi schemes or scams of other types. Just the fact that Evergrande is now focusing on its EV “business” when it is not an established producer is an indicator that the whole area is full of scams. See “China’s Evergrande plans to prioritize EV business” in automotive news Europe. Clearly, creating EVs is a fad like EFTs (or the digital coins) and represent a quick way to get cash from the gullible.

Wolf Richter > 🦖 RH Feb 13, 2022 at 11:25 am
RH, “Clearly, creating EVs is a fad…”

You need to distinguish between the stocks of EV SPACs and the actual vehicles that the industry produces.

In terms of the vehicles, it’s a huge and booming industry that cannot produce enough to satisfy demand. All the global automakers are all over it because they understand that this is what customers want. ICE vehicle sales have been spiraling lower meanwhile. So EVs are not a fad.

What is, or rather was, a fad is the EV-startup SPAC craze discussed here.

Ambrose Bierce > Wolf Feb 13, 2022 at 12:45 pm
The governor of California just proposed a bill outlawing gasoline driven lawn machinery. There is some electric replacement equipment already, but most of it is light weight, and California is obsessive about weed abatement. Maybe some smart guy will figure out how to rig up his EV PU with an pull behind electric motor head on a blade. When they built my house in the 50s they built in outdoor 240 volt outlets which might come in handy again. I just wonder if the 200 amp service I upgraded to a few years ago is really enough. Take away the Briggs and Stratton and your whole world changes.

Gelbert > Wolf Feb 13, 2022 at 3:00 pm
Exactly right.

While EVs are not catching on as quick in the U.S. as elsewhere, the latest move by Ford will radically change that within a year.

The adoption rate of EV vehicles in Europe is irrefutable evdence that EVs are definitely not a “fad”. It is the gas guzzlers that are going the way of the dodo bird as they are rapidly replaced by the exponential EV adoption curve.

All these Headlines are from the past two weeks:

Electric Car Market Grows To 29% In Europe As EV Sales Explode!

First ride: 2022 Ford F-150 Lightning adds finesse to America’s bestselling truck

XPeng expands presence in Europe, establishing sales and service partnerships in Netherlands and Sweden

Renault Group, Valeo, and Valeo Siemens eAutomotive join forces to develop and manufacture a new-generation automotive electric motor in France

Toyota commits multimillion-dollar investment to further expand production of electrified vehicles

🦖 Cashboy > Wolf Feb 13, 2022 at 8:13 pm
Wolf, EVs are not what customers want.
The government with its policy is forcing people to buy EVs.

It is almost impossible to buy a car with an internal compbustion engine with no turbo charger/supercharger or isn’t hybrid.
And finding a manual transmission is almost impossible nowadays as well.

Wolf Richter > 🦖 Cashboy Feb 13, 2022 at 9:11 pm
Cashboy,

“The government with its policy is forcing people to buy EVs.”

Bullshit. NO ONE is forcing you to buy an EV. Maybe in the future, but that day is far away if it ever comes. Right now, there is big demand and not enough supply of EVs because people WANT to buy them. I should delete these effing lies.

I hear you about limited choices in terms of ICE power trains and transmissions. Time has moved on. You don’t get that old 3-spreed stick shift anymore.

Jack > Augustus Frost
Feb 12, 2022 at 10:49 pm
Augustus Frost

“The entire US stock market’s valuation is and has been based upon a complete fantasy. So are the market values of companies like Tesla and so are the market values of “industries” like crypto.”

This summarize the Crap show basically. So thank You.

And remember, once you remove the one vital element of a market function , you’ve removed them all!

No price discovery allowed!
No large companies allowed to fail!
Not allowing the market forces to find its equilibrium!!!
And.,. You can add your own here too:



-….

And another thing , I am Not trying to take the ! and feel deep empathy with the average American citizen, but!

At what point does he/she not realizes that the continued erosion of his/her Freedoms, quality and standards of living is in huge part due basically to their own doings and choices.

The abrogations of one’s critical processing of events and surrounding phenomena , (be them in life in general or specific to the financial realm )and surrendering them to others is inviting trouble!

The empathy tank thus far empties!!

And I ask once more, how long will it take you folks to see and comprehend the truth?

Your “ Elected are NOT working for you”!

You have being dealt with as mushrooms, and fed a whole heap of the proverbial.

Gelbert > Jack Feb 13, 2022 at 3:33 pm
Jack, what you stated is true. Thank you for saying it and voicing the question of why people don’t stop this abuse by doing what is best for them, rather than what the profit over people and planet greedballs dictate. As you surmised, ordinary propaganda is quite ineffective on people trained in critical thinking, but quite effective on those lacking critical thinking skills.

What I think has caused this lack if critical thinking skills in the general populace is the methodical application of Agnotology.

What don’t we know, and why don’t we know it? What keeps ignorance alive, or allows it to be used as a political instrument? Agnotology—the study of ignorance—provides a new theoretical perspective to broaden traditional questions about “how we know” to ask: Why don’t we know what we don’t know?

The essays assembled in Agnotology show that ignorance is often more than just an absence of knowledge. Ignorance has a history and a political geography, but there are also things people don’t want you to know (“Doubt is our product” is the tobacco industry slogan).

Google this for the full article on Agnotology:
Agnotology – The Making and Unmaking of Ignorance – Edited by Robert N. Proctor and Londa Schiebinger

Gelbert Feb 13, 2022 at 2:36 pm
Wolf,
Off topic, but maybe not, after reading your reply on where to learn about US Government Treasury Bonds and to be on the lookout for increased savings rates, I learned that I Series Bonds are paying 7.15% interest.

I don’t own any but, unless the government bean counters find a way to change the formula for I Series Treasury Bond interest payment rates in order to low ball the coupon rate like they now do with the “core” inflation, it seems like a decent hedge against inflation that the stock market may no longer offer. This is evidenced by the stocks you referenced that tanked 90%.

To save readers time, I read the fine print on the I Series Treasury Bonds (if I missed something or got something wrong, please correct me):

1. $10,000 per person per year max purchase. You can buy another $5,000 if you have a tax refund of at least that amount.

2. You can’t cash them in before a year.

3. If you cash them in before 5 years, you will not get the full interest due; you will lose three months of interest.

4. They are considered “non-Probate” 30 year Bonds. That is, they can be redeemed (i.e. renamed to the beneficiary) by the named beneficiary without inheritance issues or legal stuff.

5. The Treasury created 30 year I Bonds in 1998 so that investors had a tool they could use to hedge against inflation. They are backed by the federal government.

6. The I Bonds interest rate is a combination of two rates which is called the composite interest rate. I did not get into the weeds of the formula. I leave that to financial Experts like you.

7. The inflation adjusted-interest rate is calculated twice a year which is usually May 1 and November 1. So, if the current runaway inflation rate keeps up, in May the I Series Treasury Bond interest payment may be as high as 8%.

8. I Bonds are subject to federal income taxes but they are exempt from state and local income taxes. Despite the federal tax liability, bond owners can legally defer paying any tax due until maturity. Many owners die without paying the tax, so the named beneficiary will have to pay it when the bond is redeemd and renamed.

I am not advising anyone to buy I Series Treasury Bonds or not to buy them. Do what you think is best for you.


🎩🍌 Historicus > Gelbert Feb 14, 2022 at 4:57 am
The small increments 10K….become more and more trivial with each uptick in inflation. Curious that they would put such a limit on them. I guess they knew the inevitable.


Gelbert > 🎩🍌 Historicus Feb 14, 2022 at 2:38 pm
The small increments would actually become quite significant at up to $25,000 added every year at an over 8% coupon (for a married couple with at least a $5,000 tax refund). In four years that is $100,000 in I Series bonds at around 8%. That is an annual ROI of $8,000 or so, if inflation keeps going the way the Fed seems to want to make it keep going, regardless of their lip service about “controlling inflation”.

True, real inflation is probably higher than the CPI published numbers that cause upward adjustments in the I Series Bond coupon rate, but it is, unlike the stock market, guaranteed by the federal government. If you can get more than 8% ROI out of any stock this year, you will be very fortunate.

As to why the government would put such a limit on purchases, I suspect it is to avoid a mass exodus of sellers from the stock market rushing to buy I Series Bonds if the published CPI inflation spikes. It may hit 10% or so in May, when the next adjustment for I Series bonds is due. The Fed wants to herd everyone into stocks, so Inflation adjusted bonds are not something they want purchased without limit. The Fed doesn’t want you to ‘go away in May’, or any other month, for that matter…
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