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Author Topic: 🚩 Global Climate Chaos ☠️  (Read 89315 times)

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AGelbert

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Arctic Surprise
« Reply #2175 on: May 12, 2021, 01:53:26 pm »
Agelbert NOTE: This wasn't a surprise to me, but it is good that the true ice decline trend is finally being officially acknowledged.

Arctic surprise

In 2007, IPCC AR4 produced this figure showing projections of changes in Arctic sea ice extent in the summer (July-September). The different colours represent a wide range of different scenarios for future emissions. Observations (1979-2020, added purple line) have decreased far more rapidly than projected in the CMIP3 models used at the time, when plotted on the same scale with the same reference period.

This demonstrates the concept of a climate-related ‘surprise’, or what might have been considered a low-likelihood ;) event at the time.

The original figure is here. Also see Stroeve et al. (2012) for a CMIP5 comparison (Fig. 2a), and Notz et al. (2020) for a CMIP6 comparison (Fig. 2f).


About Ed Hawkins
Climate scientist in the National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS) at the University of Reading. IPCC AR5 Contributing Author. Can be found on twitter too:
http://www.climate-lab-book.ac.uk/2021/arctic-surprise/
« Last Edit: May 12, 2021, 03:01:25 pm by AGelbert »
Rob not the poor, because he is poor: neither oppress the afflicted in the gate:
For the Lord will plead their cause, and spoil the soul of those that spoiled them. Pr. 22:22-23

 

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