Renewable Revolution

Nicholas Grossman 

Senior Editor at Arc Digital. Poli Sci prof (IR) at U. Illinois. Author of “Drones and Terrorism.” Politics, national security, and occasional nerdery.

SepTEMBER  29, 2018

Brett Kavanaugh Is A Liar (And 44 Other Things I Believe)

Some honest thoughts about this fascinating, harrowing national drama

1. I believe Brett Kavanaugh is a liar.

2. I believe this primarily due to the hearings where he defended himself from accusations of sexual assault.

3. I believe he experienced nights of drinking where he couldn’t remember some stuff that happened. I believe his freshman year roommate — who described Kavanaugh as “frequently, incoherently drunk” — as well as others who said he drank a lot and often became belligerent.

4. I believe this, in part, because I knew guys like Brett in college. A lot of people knew guys like Brett in college.

5.. I don’t believe drinking to excess in high school or college matters. I strongly believe everyone’s responsible for their actions, intoxicated or otherwise, but the drinking itself doesn’t matter.

6.. I don’t believe it matters to the American people either. George W. Bush drank to excess, almost certainly drugs too, grew out of it. Barack Obama admitted to marijuana and c o c a i n e, grew out of it. Voters didn’t care.

7.But I believe lying about it matters.

8. I don’t believe “Renate Alumnius” is an innocent reference to friendship (though I believe Kavanaugh could have written it in his yearbook without ever hooking up with her). I don’t believe Kavanaugh called himself “Beach Week Ralph Club — Biggest Contributor” because he ate too much spicy food. I don’t believe “boofing” refers to flatulence or “Devil’s Triangle” refers to a drinking game. I believe Kavanaugh knows this.

9. I can’t believe youthful drinking and high school yearbooks are being discussed as an issue of national importance.

10. But I believe lying about unimportant things is important. Kavanaugh might be lying because he thinks the truth makes accusations against him more believable. He might be lying because he’s embarrassed. Neither makes it better.

11. I know that lying about innocuous things is a big red flag when applying for a security clearance. If you’d lie just because you’re embarrassed about youthful indiscretion, how can we trust you not to lie if you make a mistake, or something goes wrong?

12. I believe Brett Kavanaugh made a conscious decision to lie to America to get on the Supreme Court. I do not believe we can objectively determine if he’s lying about more serious things — especially pertaining to Christine Blasey Ford — but his willingness to lie about unimportant things raises suspicion.

13. I believe Christine Blasey Ford, and I did not say that before the hearing. I found her testimony credible and upsetting. I especially believed her when she opened with “I’m terrified.” Who wouldn’t be?

14. I was also moved by Kavanaugh’s testimony. I believed him when he choked up talking about how hard this has been on his family. I considered the possibility he’s completely innocent, and it’s horrifying.

15. I don’t believe anyone knows how they’d react if they faced false accusations in a setting like this. I believe Kavanaugh’s anger and emotion is one plausible reaction.

16, I also believe Kavanaugh’s anger and emotion is consistent with someone who believes he is being unfairly denied something that is rightfully his.

17. I believe he worked incredibly hard to get here. I believe he straightened up sometime after college, and lived the moral life his defenders describe. Some of the guys like Brett I knew in college did too.

18. I believe 25+ years of responsible adulthood easily outweighs drinking too much and acting like a jerk as a young man.

19. But I believe acting like a jerk is on one side of an important line, and sexual assault’s on the other.

20. I believe that saying you believe both Kavanaugh and Ford is a cop-out. In particular, believing she was assaulted as described, but by someone other than Kavanaugh, is a dodge — a way to keep supporting his nomination without having to say she’s lying or crazy.

21. I know memory can be unreliable. But Dr. Ford — an accomplished research psychologist — knows that as well as anyone. She still says “100% certain.”

22. I know I don’t remember specific dates of any social gatherings in high school, nor how I got to all of them. I believe people making a big deal out of Blasey Ford not remembering these details don’t remember dates of their high school gatherings either.

23. I believe it’s possible Blasey Ford is telling the truth and Kavanaugh doesn’t remember. I believe this because he drank a lot, because many high school upperclassmen barely notice younger teenagers around them, and because the incident sounds much more memorable for the victim than the perpetrator.

24. I believe it’s much more likely someone on the cusp of incredible power — someone who believes they deserve it — would lie. Especially compared to someone relatively anonymous who knew she’d be dragged through the mud for coming forward.

25. I believe lying in Blasey Ford’s position would be harder than lying in Kavanaugh’s.

26. I know some r a p e accusations are fabrications. But the research indicates fake accusations are usually over-the-top, often come from people with a history of lying, and don’t include admissions of imperfect memory. I don’t believe Blasey Ford’s accusation raises any of those red flags.

27. I believe Julie Swetnick’s accusation, conveyed through attorney/media personality Michael Avenatti — that Kavanaugh and Judge orchestrated gang r a p e parties — does.

28. I believe Democrats have played politics throughout, manipulating the timing to delay passed the midterms. I believe some of them see Blasey Ford more as a tool than a person.

29. But I don’t see how any of that reduces her credibility.

I30.  believe Republicans arguing that they have to take a stand or Democrats will drum up similar accusations against any future nominee need to ask themselves why Scalia, Kennedy, Roberts, Alito, and Gorsuch did not face accusations of sexual assault. I believe they should consider the possibility the relevant factor with Thomas and Kavanaugh was particular to Thomas and Kavanaugh, not the party of the president who nominated them.

31. I believe there’s a fundamental flaw in Republicans’ “gotta take a stand” logic: forgetting about the American people. Democrats will attack any Republican Supreme Court nominee, but attacks against squeaky-clean nominees like John Roberts won’t resonate outside of h a r d c o r e partisans. Polls show approval for Kavanaugh dropped over 10% since his nomination. That doesn’t happen to everyone Democrats attack.

32. I believe public opinion on this matters. Not because we should govern by public opinion poll — we definitely shouldn’t — but because Supreme Court legitimacy matters.

33. I know John Roberts thinks legitimacy matters, and I don’t believe he would ever make a blatantly partisan public statement like Kavanaugh did before the Senate, not even if he were falsely accused of sexual assault.

34. I believe the American Bar Association correctly emphasizes legitimacy in it’s Model Code of Judicial Conduct. The first canon reads: “A judge shall uphold and promote the independence, integrity, and impartiality of the judiciary, and shall avoid impropriety and the appearance of impropriety.”

35. By this standard, I believe Kavanaugh vowing revenge against Democrats — “what goes around comes around” —disqualifies him from the Supreme Court on its own.

36. I believe many Americans view this episode through a partisan filter. Bias and motivated reasoning are rampant, and I believe everyone should be honest about that and try to work towards objectivity.

37. I do not believe there is sufficient evidence to convict Brett Kavanaugh of attempted r a p e in a court of law. There’s no physical evidence and no corroborating witnesses. The victim’s testimony, however compelling, isn’t enough.

38. I do not believe the accusations have been refuted either. Blasey Ford says he did it, Kavanaugh says he didn’t, and everyone else says they don’t remember.

39. I believe “I don’t remember” means “I don’t remember,” not “I definitely remember and it didn’t happen. 😉”

40. I believe if we want to know what happened we need to hear from Mark Judge, the only witness to the alleged attack.

41.  do not believe we will know what happened beyond a reasonable doubt. But we have to make a decision despite the uncertainty.

42. I do not believe the criminal law standard of beyond a reasonable doubt is the correct one to use here. As I explained in a previous article, we’re choosing whether to elevate Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court, not whether to throw him in jail.

43. I believe Supreme Court Justices should be held to the highest standard of integrity, and that there are too many clouds over Kavanaugh to confirm.

44. I believe confirming him would do long-term harm to the country by damaging Supreme Court legitimacy, and that there are many qualified conservative jurists who wouldn’t.

45. I believe this episode will damage the country however it turns out. Millions of Americans believe Kavanaugh is a sex offender. And millions of Americans believe Kavanaugh is an innocent man smeared by political opportunists. Unfortunately, I do not believe there is anything that could change either of those beliefs.