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Author Topic: 2020 Presidential Election  (Read 18642 times)

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Surly1

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Four reasons why Biden shocked Sanders
« Reply #195 on: March 04, 2020, 10:05:22 am »
Four reasons why Biden shocked Sanders
The scale of Biden's rout has no comparison.


But the impact of black voters was more important than the numbers suggest. It was Biden’s landslide victory in South Carolina that pushed party leaders around the country to back Biden in the 48 hours after the Saturday primary there. The Democratic establishment was divided and feckless before South Carolina. After African Americans weighed in, party leaders rallied around Biden. It’s the opposite of what political scientists often argue happens in a primary, when party leaders coalesce around a candidate early and voters follow along. For Biden, that dynamic happened after black voters had spoken in South Carolina. (One caveat: the black Democratic leadership of the state, especially Rep. Jim Clyburn, was clearly influential.)

Once the Democratic establishment spoke, the effect was powerful. When voters in a party are divided on a big issue, it’s a well-known fact that cues from respected party leaders can have a galvanizing effect. This happened recently when polling showed that Democrats were divided on the question of whether Donald Trump should be impeached. At the time of those polls, leaders in Congress were also divided. Once high-profile Democratic skeptics like Nancy Pelosi joined the pro-impeachment camp, creating a unified party position, the division among voters also disappeared. Something very similar happened with Biden after South Carolina and the firehose of major endorsements.

It’s only the degree of the shift that was so surprising. But it’s been clear that late-breaking positive news can have profound effects in a primary in which voters have been sloshing between several candidates all year. Biden hit a jackpot of timing. By one estimate the amount of positive coverage he received after the polls closed in South Carolina was worth over $100 million. The results seem to answer rather definitely that so-called earned media — free coverage — is superior to paid advertising.

As of late Tuesday Mike Bloomberg was on track to win four delegates, which would mean he paid over $100 million per delegate.

Finally, Biden was partially assisted by the dramatic rearrangement of the viable candidates after South Carolina when the moderates, Amy Klobuchar and Pete Buttigieg, dropped out while the left was divided by Warren remaining in the race. Biden might not have won Massachusetts or Minnesota, where the totals for Warren and Sanders exceeded Biden’s support, in a one-on-one race. And Warren likely kept Sanders from winning more delegates in California and Texas. (Though the impact of Bloomberg, who was on track to best Warren in both states, may have harmed Biden as much as Warren harmed Sanders.)

 

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