Renewable Revolution

Jens Stubbe • 17 hours ago
CIP is already building the first real offshore project in USA and is growing fast with also the largest HVDC project in USA this millennium.

Offshore is in many ways the only way to save the globe and grew 31% last year while dropping cost 24% per produced kWh. 👍👍👍

This is just an extension of a long standing trend with 29% average annual growth since 2012 and 20% annual cost drop.

The future looks explosive as the two majors in the +8MW segment will be joined by GE Haliade 12MW and 14MW with astonishing capacity factors and yet again better than the square cube rule performance.

The latest market report was from GWEC and their first attempt ever on a prognosis for offshore wind. Even though GWEC lifted the 2030 target by BNEF a few month prior by 52% they still envision this strange collapse that also BNEF came up with.

We will know more when the results from a few ongoing zero subsidy projects roll in and also when the bids for the first offshore in India rolls in.

Jan Veselư > Jens Stubbe • 7 hours ago
Hi Jens,
do you have some info about real world tests of the new breed of wind turbines where they reached 60+% capacity factors? Even on test sites. Thanks.

Jens Stubbe > Jan Veselư • 5 hours ago
The GE Haliade 12MW and Siemens Gamesa 10MW are still in preparation.
https://www.4coffshore.com/news/ge-preps-for-12mw-test-turbine-nid12512.html

Interestingly the development costs disclosed where only slightly higher than for the MHI Vestas 8MW so also on development cost the industry are setting new standards.
https://www.offshorewind.biz/2018/05/18/siemens-gamesa-to-test-10mw-systems-in-spain/...

John > Jens Stubbe • 17 hours ago
I still can't believe Hornsea One is already halfway built. That is going up fast.

Jens Stubbe > John • 11 hours ago
Since the first project with MHI Vestas turbines went up three years ago the average construction time has been cut to just a third and this speeding up of operations is one of the cost drivers that will definitively continue unabated.

Especially the likely shift to floating fundaments will mean that turbines will be completed in the harbour and towed to position.

The same goes with the shift to PTX onboard where you do not use HVDC but simpler and cheaper pipelines for the PTX