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Author Topic: Photvoltaics (PV)  (Read 12621 times)

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Re: Photvoltaics (PV)
« Reply #15 on: April 29, 2014, 03:14:14 pm »
SNIPPETS: go to the links for full text:


Solar's Insane Cost Drop


 the cost of solar PV has come from - quite
literally - off the charts less than a decade ago to a point
where [investment bank Sanford] Bernstein says solar PV is now
cheaper than oil and Asian LNG (liquefied natural gas).
 "For these (developing Asian economies) solar is just cheap,
clean, convenient, reliable energy. And since it is a
technology, it will get even cheaper over time [while]
fossil fuel extraction costs will keep rising. There is a
massive global market for cheap energy and that market is
oblivious to policy changes" in China, Japan, the EU or the
US, it writes.
 And then Bernstein drops this bombshell - while solar has a
fractional share of the market now,  within one decade, solar
PV (plus battery storage) may have such a share of the market
that it becomes a trigger for energy price deflation, with
huge consequences for the massive fossil fuel industry that
relies on continued growth.
 Sitting on oil and gas reserves for the benefit of
generations yet to come ceases to be a rational strategy if
that reserve represents a depreciating rather than an
appreciating asset."
 This, Bernstein says, is the hidden flaw with the idea that
solar is "too small to matter". Ultimately, it says, what may
kill the  energy market for equity investors is not the fact
that renewable technology and battery storage will turn into
behemoths, but the realisation of that future as inevitable.




 Bernstein: Utilities Have 4 Choices In Solar Revolution (None
Are Easy To Swallow)

 Can electricity generation companies live off two hours of
demand a day? And what if utilities actually tried to slow
down the rollout of rooftop solar? If these are questions
energy utilities are asking themselves in the current market
environment, they may not like investment bank Bernstein's
 "Instead of high-cost (and high-priced) gas-fired peaking
power plants being engaged in the middle of the afternoon when
all of the air-conditioners are operating and all of the
factories are running, solar addresses that load. California -
like Germany and Australia - is already seeing this effect,"
Bernstein writes.
 Bernstein points out that by 2020, the installed capacity of
solar will be so great that the demand profile will resemble
the green line and daytime power demand will have effectively
collapsed... "For companies selling electricity into merchant
or competitive markets like California, this is a disaster,"
the Bernstein analysts write.
 "Demand during what was one of the most profitable times of
the day disappears. With it, the need for part of the merchant
fleet disappears too for all but the dinner hour. And that is
the issue competitive generators face globally in this
2020-scenario: how to live off demand of two hours a day."
 "The response of simply raising prices per kWh is therefore
unsustainable," the analysts note. And they are faced with
increasingly unattractive choices.
 "The behavior from here seems clear: the solar industry will
expand. Retaliatory steps from distribution utilities will
increase the market for cost-effective battery storage. This
becomes - initially - a secondary market for battery
technologies being developed for the auto sector. A failed
battery technology in the auto sector (too hot, too heavy, too
rigid a form factor) might well be perfect for the home energy
storage market... with an addressable end market of 2 billion


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