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Author Topic: Photvoltaics (PV)  (Read 8326 times)

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AGelbert

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Re: Photvoltaics (PV)
« Reply #285 on: June 26, 2018, 02:25:17 pm »
Quote
AG: they still will have to compete with that clean renewable energy technology that Palloy is ALWAYS quick to claim (a TOTAL FABRICATION, by the way) is "ERoEI negative".

There no such thing as a negative ERoEI.  That is a basic error that shows you don't know what you are on about.  I think what you mean is "less than 1".

I don't claim, and never have, that the ERoEI of renewables is less than 1. My claim is the
ERoEI ethanol from sugarcane mollasses is 1.05 .  Evidence is this graph by CSIRO tests:


According to BP(2018) the quantity of Proved Reserves around the world is 1.696 trillion tonnes, and that is the same as 2011.  The peak was in 2014 at 1.702 .  I can't get the chart to work, but in 1980 the figure was 1.118 trillion barrels.  That is, the oil companies have been unable to find any "spare" reserves, like they could in the 1930s, and are flat out trying to find new stuff.  So they crow about a find of 330 million barrels, even though it is a TINY fraction of what is needed to keep ahead of demand. This is definitely NOT SUSTAINABLE. It is a silly question to ask "at what exact figure will it all collapse?", it is a matter of confidence that the oil is there to be had.  When the confidence goes, the oil majors' shares will collapse, and with it the financial system.

I should just say that the BP figures have to be ESTIMATED for countries like Russia who don't release that data.  And for the US, the whole thing is about what is going to be got out of an oil field before it is officially shut down.  This always off in the future so the companies can say what they like, no one will ever know.  The only other data sources are from EIA (USDoE) and IEA (OECD), both of whom are dominated by oil companies and trying to hide Peak Oil.

The ERoEI of PV farms is 3.0 (range 1.5 to 6.0).  Evidence this table from ISA's report to Australian PM and Cabinet, "Life Cycle Energy Balance":



(Energy Intensity is the reciprocal of ERoEI.)

From the same table, the ERoEI of wind turbines is 15 (range 8 to 25).

So PV manufacturers have to find a third of the energy UP FRONT that the panels will eventually produce, otherwise the panels can't be built.  That is easy while the quantity of panels is small, like now, but it becomes much bigger as the scale increases, and will overwhelm the energy system.  Bardi thinks we can just squeeze through, with much savings on efficiency, etc, but no one is doing that.

I would love to know how they come up with the PV numbers. Just the methodology I'm not doubting it but from my experience they are outliving their projected life and the panels from 20 years ago are nowhere near as well made as the current ones. It could change the eroei for solar. The massive industrial scale roll out is just too recent to know. Then there is the secondary market. They don't really die they just don't produce up to specifications. They are an unusual device that way they are not your typical good then not good they fade slowly. At what point is it considered at the end of its productive life? We sell off the old systems we upgrade and there is a market for the 12 volt 50-80 watt panels out there at $.25-.75 a watt.  Just some food for thought
Thank you for this both of you. David


You are welcome, David.

Palloy, not  only do you refuse to answer my questions, but your claim that you have "never said" Renewable Energy has an ERoEI less than 1.00 is doubletalk. You have gone on and on about upfront costs not justifying them, their low energy density, ther longevity issues, the fossil fuels need to make them and so on. So, YEAH, you have CONSISTENTLY gone out of your way to claim Renewable energy can NEVER compete with fossil fuels.

I disagree. I have posted many articles that provide evidence that Renewable Enrgy technology, not only can replace fossil fuels, but replacing polluting energy with Renewable Energy is our only option, if we wish to survice as a species.

The "peak oil caused collapse will save us" claim is a false meme. Collapse from lack of Fossil fuels is is not going to happen, at least not in our life time.

What is the minimum amount of fossil fuels we must burn each year to prevent a collapse of civilization during that year?

Answer the question Palloy.

K-Dog, you claim there is empirical evidence that Peak Oil is real after trashing an article that exposed a full DECADE of peak oil hysterics. Since Palloy refuses to answer, will you give me a number?

My estimate is that we MUST have, at minimum, 7 billion BOE - rounded off to the nearest Billion BOE  ;D - (this includes ALL fossil fuels) annually to prevent a collapse. What is your estimate?

If Peak Oil is to have more relevance than Catastrophic Climate Change, it MUST cause the collpase of Industrial Cvilization from the lack of them, PERIOD.
Hope deferred maketh the heart sick: but when the desire cometh, it is a tree of life. Pr. 13:12

 

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