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Author Topic: Electric Vehicles  (Read 22959 times)

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Re: Electric Vehicles
« Reply #420 on: July 08, 2018, 02:30:04 pm »
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Tesla Has “The Potential To Become BMW”

July 8th, 2018 by Matt Pressman

Originally published on EVANNEX.

Wall Street is obsessed with Tesla Model 3 production numbers. To some degree, this is understandable. But, according to one disruptive Wall Street analyst, Tesla’s production numbers don’t accurately reflect the bigger picture for Elon Musk.

Tesla’s Model 3 (Image: Tesla)

When you pull back the lens a bit, it appears the vast majority of those covering Tesla [NASDAQ: TSLA] on Wall Street are missing the forest for the trees. Pierre Ferragu, at New Street Research, explains (via Markets Insider), “You have this army of analysts today who are speculating about whether Tesla [is] producing 500 or 700 cars per day today, but honestly who cares?”

Ferragu elaborates, “The production rate is increasing. If they are at 500, they’re going to get to 10,000 [per week] maybe at the end of next year. And if they are at 700, maybe [they] are going to get to 10,000 in the middle of next year. But on the enterprise value [for] Tesla, whether they are at 10,000 [per week] now or in six months, what is the difference on valuation? It’s nothing.”

Perhaps CEO Elon Musk is playing the long game. Ferragu argues, “You have to move on and look at what matters… [Elon Musk] tells the company and he tells the public: ‘We are going to ramp Model 3 in nine months.’ He actually knows that the probability they fail is very high, but he wants everybody to shoot for that.”

Tesla’s CEO Elon Musk (Instagram: thaddeus_ces)

Analysts (mistakenly) take Musk’s word at face value. Ferragu contends, “Sell-side analysts who don’t know the guy, who don’t understand the technology, who don’t understand what it is like to work at Tesla — they translate his ‘shot for the moon’ as ‘they missed it.’ Instead of translating it as ‘they started,’ they translate that into ‘they failed,’ which is a massive mistake. It’s just a wrong way of translating Elon Musk.”

An over-obsession with production stats could prove myopic. Other factors might foreshadow the future more accurately — e.g. Tesla’s competitive advantage, market share Tesla steals from legacy automakers, and how those companies respond.” Ferragu says, “For all these questions there is no research. That’s where I can make a difference.”

So should analysts ignore production numbers altogether? Not necessarily. Ferragu tells The Street, “a near-term cash crunch could prove to be a problem.” However, “You should not look at how many cars are produced. Instead you should look at how much money each vehicle is bringing in, and as Tesla ramps production, their free cash flow will improve dramatically.”

An overview of Tesla (Infographic: The Street)*

At this stage, Tesla is a boutique automaker with only three cars in production. However, plans are underway for more vehicles (see The Street‘s infographic above) and significant growth lies ahead. Ferragu concludes, “The long-term, five- to seven-year trajectory is the real story of Tesla… Tesla has the potential to gain a lot of share in the premium market. It has the potential to become BMW.”

Source: Markets Insider; The Street; *Editor’s Note: Regarding the infographic — to be precise, Tesla was actually the first American car company to make an IPO since Ford went public in 1956. In addition, here are much more accurate design renderings/images shown for the Model Y and Tesla Semi.


Agelbert COMMENT:

Excellent article! 👍 I will expand a bit on how I believe Musk plans for the future. Musk understands, like nobody at Wall Street seems to, that Catastrophic Climate Change is a death sentence for   🏴‍☠️  for human civilization. 🚩

 Musk wants to make vehicles that can help civilization have a fighting chance to deal with this increasingly hostile environment while our scientists 👨‍🔬 come up with some way, not available at present 😨, to stop the increasingly destructive GHG pollution caused biosphere degradation. 😓

That part of his calculus does not impress, or make much news for, the greed based crowd that defines "reality" as short term pecuniary profit. Those profit over planet cretins 😈 👹 💵 🎩 🍌 are not now, or ever have been, part of the reality based community. They are part of the problem.

What I am sayng is that Musk's line of EVs will soon include models that will be able to handle extremes in temperature 🌡️, wind 💨 and precipitation 🌪 , now guaranteed to increase in frequency and duration by Catastrophic Climate Change, that gas guzzlers 🔥, while actually making the climate more deadly, cannot.

The security of those driving Electric Vehicles is not simply about surving a wreck with another car. Musk understands that like absolutely nobody on Wall Street does. All Wall Street can do is invent false equvalences between a few Tesla battery fires and 174,000 gasoline fires a year. 👎

 Already, EVs can provide power to a home during grid failure from a storm without generating toxic fumes or GHG pollution. 👍 Don't expect Wall Street to ever mention the fact that EVs in general, and Tesla EVs in particular, have already saved lives this way, or EVER mention the average 500 Carbon Monoxide caused deaths a year in the USA that would NOT HAPPEN if homes were powered exclusively by batteries during a grid power failure.

Eventually, Tesla vehicles will be making the news because a family survives a flash flood that totally immersed the car, but did not flood the inside or stop it's motor from giving power to thedrive train. enabling the EV to exit the flooded area while ever gas guzzler vehicle turned into a coffin for the drivers caught in the flood.

Musk's business model incorporates the long term safety and security of humans in our civilization. His EVs are just one part of that reality based logic driving his present actions and future plans. Wall Street never gave a rat's ass about that, and never will.

Elon Musk understands what it means to be a responsible human being. Elon Musk, like every human in the reality based community, is like the one eyed fellow in a civilization still dominated by blind greedballs. The reality based community will win this fight or we are all dead.   

What it Means to be Responsible - Reflections on Our Responsibility for the Future  by Theresa Morris, State University of New York at New Paltz
Rob not the poor, because he is poor: neither oppress the afflicted in the gate:
For the Lord will plead their cause, and spoil the soul of those that spoiled them. Pr. 22:22-23


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