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Topic Summary

Posted by: AGelbert
« on: December 15, 2017, 11:29:07 pm »

A number of outright mistakes in your history of RCP-2.6.  ::)

It WAS a peak-and-decline scenario when it was originally called RCP-3PD, but later it was converted to a "viable" scenario that achieved a temperature increase of less than 2°C.  This include a HUGE increase in renewable energy - enough to keep the total energy output increasing at 3% p.a.  The embedded energy in creating this much renewable energy infrastructure was NOT included, because that would have made the total energy fall.  (There is NO SOLUTION that allows total energy to keep increasing.)

The models were calibrated by running them using data up to 1984 and demonstrating that they predicted the same values as the REAL 1984-2014 data.  Therefore they DO contain all the factors that the models contain, including the CO2 lag effect. The lag isn't just 40 years, it depends on the assumptions and under RCP-2.6 it is 32 years. The following decline is very slow, but the peak temperature is +1.6°C.


Quote
AG: "Just use that polluting fuel all you want. It's gonna run out soon, real, real soon and it will all work out. "  

Van Vuuren doesn't exactly put it that way.  It is ME and other Peakists that says it's gonna run out real soon and then we will have kept temperature rise to below +1.6°C, BUT WE WILL HAVE AN EVEN WORSE PROBLEM ON OUR HANDS - COLLAPSE.

It is this bind that our leaders have to face, and there is NOTHING they can do about it, except plan to have us as weak (politically) as possible so that we won't be able to hang them from the nearest lamppost. So concentrate on the right problem, Collapse, not Climate Change.

RCP-2.6 says the quantity of natural gas being produced in 2070 will be three times the current level.  Do you believe that?  Imagine how much gas RCP-8.5 implies.


ALL the scenarios except the RCP 8.5 are "mitigation" scenarios. This "peak and decline" issue is contingent on technology for carbon sequestration THAT HASN'T BEEN INVENTED! The most advanced CO2 scrubbing technology is in nuclear submarines and they CANNOT get it below 5,000 PPM of CO2! They have to surface when it gets to 8,000 PPM (the scrubbing technology cannot keep up) after several months. The "mitigation" scenarios, including the RCP 2.6, ASS-U-ME carbon sequestration technology (the space aliens will give us, I guess  ::)) that NOBODY HAS INVENTED YET to get the radiative forcings down. Don't tell me you did not know that! Yeah, even the RCP 6.0 (QUOTE ... application of a range of technologies and strategies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions Fujino et al. 2006; Hijioka et al. 2008 UNQUOTE) ASS-U-MES that magical thinking!

Who said anything  about ENERGY INCREASING? YOU are the one that won't let that go. I am the one trying to get you to understand that the polluting particles in our atmosphere WILL PRODUCE the radiative forcings that will NEVER descend anywhere near 2.6 even with ZERO production of fossil fuels. You just cannot accept that. Yet, any climate scientist will be happy to explain it to you.

Putin and Trump sure as hell believe they will keep producing oil and gas willy nilly! But you still cannot wrap your head around the fact that radiative forcings will continue to INCREASE for 40 years (at least) even after production of fossil fuels decreases to zip. NO, the LAG is NOT properly accounted for. There are SEVERAL real world conditions ABSENT from ALL the models. You just cannot accept what a self reinforcing global warming feedback loop (i.e. "postive") is AND that there are well over THIRTY of them now in play the models DO NOT account for. And NO, that isn't just from Guy McPherson or Sam Carana, your favorite punching bags; eminent glaciologists have already made that clear.

Then there is the permafrost you don't realize will add one hell of lot more radiative forcings even after, to use your fascinating term, the lack "profitable" exploration for and extraction of fossil fuels makes them "too expensive" and they go the way of the dodo bird around the time your assumed collapse scenario happens


Sorry Palloy, your scenario has more logical holes in it than a piece of swiss cheese.

Give it a rest Palloy. You simply do not know what you are talking about. The fact is that they are going to SOON have to label the "Business as Usual" scenario the RCP 9.0  (radiative forcing of 9.0 W/m2 OR MORE for at least 40 years!) or higher because of the LATEST radiative forcings in 2017. That's right, Einstein, global greenhouse gas emissions are INCREASING (see my note after the Latin America Renewable Energy post below). Your "collapse will solve the emissions and warming" magical thinking is irrational. Clinging to it is delusional. Stop it. Join the real world of biosphere math and stop wishing reality away with a convenient collapse.

Have a nice day.       


Posted by: AGelbert
« on: December 15, 2017, 10:35:27 pm »



Latin America, A New Leader in Renewable Energy

December 12, 2017

By Katherine Olalla

Katherine is a Masters candidate at New York University Center for Global Affairs, with a concentration in Energy Policy and Environment. She is interested in sustainable development and renewable energy investment projects.

Latin America’s progress in tackling climate change is excelling and showing that its ambition plans are positioning this region as a new leader in renewable energy. In response to the threats of climate change, Latin America is taking bold climate actions to invest in renewable energy projects and adopting new energy policies to mitigate climate change impacts. As one of the most vulnerable regions to the effects of climate change, many Latin American countries showed their desire for a greener world at the recent United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP23) developing strategic plans to increase the deployment of renewable energy and reduce greenhouse emissions.

First, investment in renewable energy is on the rise as a result of the frequency of natural disasters in the region. In 2017, Latin American countries experienced catastrophic floods, droughts, and storms. Hurricanes like Irma and Maria caused major impacts on the Caribbean islands like Cuba and the Dominican Republic. Hurricane Irma devastated Cuba, 158,554 were displaced from their homes, 980 health facilities were affected, and 95,000 hectares of agriculture land was damaged. Hurricane Maria hit the Dominican Republic dropping 20 inches of rain flooding hundreds of houses. In countries like Peru and Colombia, the number of fatalities caused by natural disasters linked to climate change was even higher than previous years. In Peru, more than 100 people have died as a result, of the magnitude of this year’s floods. In October 2017, Colombia faced the deadliest flood in South America where at least 254 people died in Mocoa town.

Second, many Latin American countries like Uruguay are increasing the deployment of solar and wind energy supporting the reduction of global emissions of carbon dioxide. Scientists predict that greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels will rise by 2 percent by the end of this year. The rise in use of coal in China this year has been a contributor to this problem. According to National Geographic, there are positive trends showing that Mexico and other Latin American countries are decreasing their emissions. Costa Rica was the first Latin American country to run entirely on renewable energy for more than 250 days, leading by example as the greenest countries in the region.

Read: How Uruguay Became a Wind Power Powerhouse

Third,
Latin America demonstrated leadership at the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP23) in Bonn, Germany. Countries like Brazil, Mexico and Chile are heavily investing in solar and wind energy. Brazil invested 7.1 billion in renewables in 2015 demonstrating its high potential to transit to a low-carbon economy. While Chile is proudly leading solar energy with the implementation of the biggest photovoltaics plant (El Romero) in the region that has the capacity to produce energy for 240,000 Chilean homes. Chile is also promoting renewable energy at the commercial level as Google Chile gets 100 percent of its energy from this solar power plant. Argentina and Mexico showed their interest in being part of a meaningful change by setting renewable energy targets, adopting support policies and providing fiscal incentives. Mexico excelled by being the first developing country to submit a climate pledge to the Paris Climate Agreement in 2015 and the first one to address adaptation to climate change in its pledge. Mauricio Macri, President of Argentina expressed his support to renewable energy and issued a decree at the beginning of this year to make Argentina generate 8 percent of their electricity from renewable sources for the entire current year.

At the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP23), main Latin American cities such as Rio de Janeiro, Buenos Aires, Quito, Caracas, Mexico City, and Santiago de Chile participated in global alliances among 25 global cities, where they committed to work harder and implement projects to address climate change impacts before 2020. Colombia and Ecuador were awarded at COP23 for their thriving initiatives. Colombia won the Momentum for Change award for its work with young scientists from the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), and Ecuador received the Impulse for Change award for the initiative, Sustainable Agriculture with Inclusion and Participation of Gender.

Latin America’s actions are showing to the rest the world that it is a regional leader for scaling up the use of renewable energy. Latin America appears to be home for some of the most promising renewable energy projects. Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico are already taking advantage of green funds. As we see the world being impacted more frequently by natural disasters caused by climate change, we will see more pro-renewables actions from Latin America.

http://www.renewableenerg...-in-renewable-energy.html

Agelbert NOTE: I'm happy for Latin America but what they are doing to transition will probably not be enough to avoid more frequent and more intensely deadly catastrophic climate change damage.

WHY?  Because the fossil fuel industry worldwide is in a production binge! Did you know hat there are massive LNG carrier ship traffic jams in the newly expanded Panama Canal? The Canal authority is not allowing more than one natural gas ship a week.

Just a few years ago there weren't ANY of those ships going through the Canal. Now they are backed up there because of all the putput from Frackers from the USA that are exporting all they can. 

Yes, readers, instead of reducing the polluting, planet heating emissions, the fossil fuel industry worldwide has opened the production flood gates. Russia is producing more oil and gas than ever as it continues plans to extract all types of fossil fuels from the Arctic as the ice melts.

Goldman Sachs is saying Big Oil in the USA and Europe had a fantastically profitable year! The pollution business is BOOMING!


What this massive production spike of oil and gas means to the biosphere is that the radiative forcing level from the RCP 8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway), considered  the "Business as Usual" scenario by he IPCC, is WELL BELOW the actual emissions in 2017. That's right, folks. BUSINESS AS USUAL is now producing MORE than 8.5 W/m2 of radiative forcings. IOW, they are going to have to come up with a NEW "Trump and Putin Business as Usual" Global Warming scenario called the RCP 9.0 (or greater).

The graphic below was our new reality as of 2016. Now at the end of 2017, it has only gotten WORSE.
Posted by: AGelbert
« on: December 15, 2017, 12:39:13 am »

Why the RCP 2.6 scenario is wishful thinking

THIS is what the RCP 2.6 is all about:

QUOTE:

RCP2.6 was developed by the IMAGE modeling team of the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency.

The emission pathway is representative of scenarios in the literature that lead to very low greenhouse gas concentration levels.    ;) It  is a “peak-and-decline”  scenario; its radiative forcing level first reaches a value of around 3.1 W/m2  by mid-century, and returns to 2.6 W/m2  by 2100.

In order to reach such radiative forcing levels, greenhouse gas emissions (and indirectly emissions of air pollutants) are reduced substantially, over time (Van Vuuren et al. 2007a). (Characteristics quoted from van Vuuren et.al. 2011)

UNQUOTE

https://www.skepticalscience.com/rcp.php?t=3

Agelbert Explanation: First of all the emissions have not shown ANY tendency to slow down yet. But let us say that wishful thinkers (or perhaps fossil fuel industry propgandist status quo defending liars and crooks   ) are counting on a collapse to get the radiative forcings down to the RCP 2.6 level, INSTEAD OF ABOVE THE RCP 8.5 scenario, as they are NOW tracking.

Let us say that on January 1, 2018, we stop all polluting emissions of fossil fuels. Yeah, I know, RIDICULOUS. But here is where you are missing the pitch that the defenders of RCP 2.6 heaven are using. As long as the EVENT when fossil fuels use SLOWS DOWN is somewhere in the future (i.e. 2050) the BASTARDS that push this BALONEY can contiue urging us to burn fossil fuels with the CON that the radiative forcings are going to go WAY DOWN in 2050 and make everything better. That is BULLSHIT.

WHY? Because the radiative forcings DO NOT GO DOWN, as projected in RCP 2.6, just because emissions slow down! How can that be? It IS because CO2 doesn't just "go away" when you stop pumping more of it in to the atmosphere. It STAYS there for CENTURIES.

The whole CON here is the incredibly mendacious claim that there is a DIRECT cause and effect climate warming relationship to emissions. The FACT is that there is about a 40 year LAG. But the defenders of the RCP 2.6 do not want to talk about that.

For those who still cannot wrap their "collapse solves the problem" head around this inconvenient 40 year lag reality, that means that in 2017 plus 40 years - 2057 (if we come to a dead STOP on January 1, 2018 - you know that ain't gonna happen!), the radiative forcings we have TODAY, which are ABOVE RCP 8.5 (the number is related to the W/m2 of radiative forcings) will THEN begin to descend.

Oh, but there is MORE that those fine "honest"  fellows like Palloy do not want to discuss. You see, The radiative forcing scenarios are IRRELEVANT when a runaway greenhouse (several self reinforcing warming loops absent ANY added emissions) is in progress. THAT is where we are already at.

Consequently, for the two reasons I just stated, there is not a snowball's chance in hell that we will EVER get to a radiaitve forcings level of between 3.1 and 2.6 W/m2 by 2100. Our radiative forcings NOW are ABOVE 8.5 W/m2 and they ARE NOT going to go below that for at least 40 years, no mattter what the Palloys of this world otherwise mendaciously claim.

So why to the bullshitters pushing the RCP 2.6 scenario persist? BECAUSE they IGNORE the CO2 already in the atmosphere AND the 40 year lag while they give ALL THEIR ATTENTION (and they want YOU to look NOWHERE ELSE) at the amount of ENERGY generated by fossil fuels each year. That is just plain BONKERS. The other two factors are even MORE important at this stage of the runaway greenhouse!

But, as I said, the method in that madness is to make you and I believe the CON that collapse is going to make everything just dandy. Don't worry about a thing   . Just use that polluting fuel all you want. It's gonna run out soon, real, real soon and it will all work out.

Don't swallow the con. All these fossil fueler crooks and liars want is to keep you USING fossil fuels for profit over planet! Stop using them wherever you can. The only good Fossil fuel corporation is a BANKRUPT fossil fuel corporation.


Posted by: AGelbert
« on: December 14, 2017, 06:13:43 pm »

Agelbert NOTE: Here is the NTSB video of the El Faro's fatal last journey. What bothers me about this is that they do not say absolutely ANYTHING about the wave size or height. I continue to believe that at least one giant wave hit the El Faro, causing it to sink. The mangled bridge superstructure and the  broken in pieces lifeboat evidences this, yet the NTSB doesn't not want to talk about it.
The lifeboats on El Faro were 65 feet above the water line. From the condition of the lifeboat that was recovered, the evidence indicates a giant wave sank the El Faro.

Yes, the Captain screwed up. Yes, BVS weather service helped him screw up. Yes, the side holes in the El Faro made it less seaworthy in a hurricane. But, they could be secured in fairly bad weather. Only giant waves would be ferocious enough to break open the sealed hatches and overcome the ability of the bilge pumps to keep most of the sea out. I read the entire transcript (not shown in this abbreviated summary) and they were smacked massively several times in the last hour before the ship sunk. You can listen to the mayhem on the El Faro Bridge and hear the forceful catastrophic wave impacts at the link in the following quote:
Quote
NTSB Releases El Faro VDR Bridge Audio Transcript; Opens Investigation Docket

December 13, 2016 by gCaptain

http://gcaptain.com/ntsb-...-bridge-audio-transcript/


Agelbert post with the above article:


SS El Faro. Photo: MarineTraffic.com/

NTSB Determines Probable Cause of EL FARO Sinking

December 12, 2017 by gCaptain

SNIPPET:

NTSB investigators worked closely with the U.S. military and federal- and private-sector partners to locate the wreckage, photo- and video-document the ship and related debris field, and recover the El Faro’s voyage data recorder from more than 15,000 feet under the surface of the sea – which proved critical to the investigation.




Full article:

http://gcaptain.com/ntsb-determines-probable-cause-of-el-faro-sinking/




Posted by: AGelbert
« on: December 14, 2017, 01:21:55 pm »

Agelbert OBSERVATION: I just want to point something out I noticed yesterday on Google Earth. In those hills just west and north of Ventura (where there is still a lot of fire) there are umpteen Fracking pads. Every single one of them (active or not) has several varieties of hydrocarbon gases leaking ALL THE TIME. Hydrocarbon gases are, of course, known to aid combustion...

What goes around is comin' around for those Frackers in California. Maybe these fossil fuel fools will  finally learn to stop Fracking around with mother nature.

...and the Mansions just keep on burning!   


RE

http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-thomas-fire-ledeall-20171214-story.html

LOCAL L.A. Now

'This fire is a beast': Massive inferno keeps growing despite all-out battle

Firefighters try to stop the forward march of the Thomas Fire


Firefighter Chris Black with the Sacramento Fire Department douses flames Tuesday in Toro Canyon in Carpinteria. (Al Seib / Los Angeles Times)

Joseph Serna, Javier Panzar and Matt HamiltonContact Reporters

More than a week after the Thomas fire ignited in Ventura County, destroying hundreds of homes and displacing thousands as it grew into a massive inferno, firefighters are now in a race to protect the pristine coastal communities of neighboring Santa Barbara County before a shift in powerful winds forecast for this weekend.

Across the mountain ridges above Santa Barbara, Summerland and Montecito, firefighters Wednesday were building containment lines, clearing brush, digging breaks and setting small backfires to burn fuel, all in an effort to create barriers to stop the forward march of the fire.

Conditions so far this week have been favorable, allowing firefighters to attack the flames on the southwestern flank of the blaze as it moves west toward the Santa Ynez Mountains.

But the National Weather Service was forecasting sundowner winds blowing southeast at up to 35 mph Friday night, followed by Santa Ana winds Saturday that, at up to 45 mph, could steer the fire toward the southwest.

“When the wind starts pushing it, we can throw everything we have at it and it’s not going to do any good,” Mark Brown, an operations section chief for the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, told Santa Barbara residents Wednesday night.

The stakes are high. If the fire moves into Santa Barbara and Montecito, nearly a quarter million residents and 62,000 structures worth $46 billion would be at risk.

Dozers build containment lines as fire approaches

A dozer from the Santa Barbara County Fire Department clears a fire break across a canyon from atop Camino Cielo down to Gibraltar to make a stand should the fire move in that direction. (Mike Eliason / Santa Barbara County Fire Department via AP) (at article link)

“When the wind starts pushing it, we can throw everything we have at it and it’s not going to do any good." — Mark Brown, Cal Fire operations section chief

As firefighters well know, sundowner winds are notoriously unpredictable. The winds occur when hot air from the Santa Ynez Valley rises and swiftly pours over the mountain passes toward the Pacific Ocean, as if a person pressed a thumb over the end of a hose.

“It creates very erratic wind conditions, which are very difficult to predict and very difficult to fight fire in,” said Capt. Brendan Ripley, a fire behavior analyst with the Ventura County Fire Department. “It moves fire in different directions. It changes throughout the day.”

If crews can’t finish the containment line across a roughly six-mile stretch in the mountains fast enough to stop the fire’s march west, firefighters may have to burn the fuel themselves — a risky proposition and a scary sight for residents.

“It’s a proactive approach to fight the fire on our terms instead of on Mother Nature’s terms,” Brown said. “It’s well-coordinated if we do it. We’ve had numerous subject-matter experts put the plan together. It’s been vetted at all levels. All the local authorities have looked at it and approved it.”

Fire officials stressed that this plan would be used only if the weekend wind events occur as predicted and if crews can’t make a stand and fight the fire directly. The controlled blaze would burn up to 4,000 acres and be started when winds are favorable for firefighters.
Massive Thomas Fire Threatens Santa Barbara County
The Thomas Fire, feeding on thick chaparral brush which hasn't burned in generations, approaches homes in Montecito. (David McNew / Getty Images)

Meanwhile, firefighters hoped to slow the blaze by building breaks into areas with less vegetation because those areas burned in the last decade, said Chris Childers, a battalion chief with the Santa Barbara County Fire Department.

About 600 fire engines are jammed into the narrow, winding roads in the Santa Barbara County foothills. Trucks are spraying retardant on grassy hillsides and firefighters are wrapping small, indefensible buildings in protective metallic sheeting that looks like tinfoil to reduce the chances they ignite.

As smoke cleared and visibility improved, a conga line of low-flying helicopters started arriving at a county park in Santa Barbara off Highway 154 to pick up fire retardant. Officials said 33 helicopters and eight airplanes were dropping water and retardant on the blaze.

As of Wednesday night, the Thomas fire had burned more than 238,000 acres and was 30% contained. It has destroyed more than 900 homes in Ventura and Santa Barbara counties since it began Dec. 4 near Thomas Aquinas College in Santa Paula. In its first day, the fire spread southwest, toward Ventura, and northwest, eventually hugging Ojai before pushing to the Central Coast.

With containment lines now protecting Ventura and Santa Paula, firefighters there have been on a “seek and destroy” mission for any lingering hot spots that could threaten avocado groves, fire officials said Wednesday.

“This fire is a beast and you’re gonna kill it,” Martin Johnson, Santa Barbara County fire division chief, told fire crews at a morning briefing. “I have no doubt."

Authorities said it will probably take months for fire officials to determine the cause of the Thomas fire.

Serna from reported from Ventura, Panzar from Santa Barbara and Hamilton from Los Angeles.

joseph.serna@latimes.com

javier.panzar@latimes.com

matt.hamilton@latimes.com


Track the key details on Southern California’s fires


Posted by: AGelbert
« on: December 13, 2017, 10:34:58 pm »


Quote
AG:
And you still owe me an apology for claiming I was wrong in stating that reality is even worse than the RCP 8.5 Global Warming scenario. RCP 8.5 is too conservative. Admit it!

No, far from being conservative, RCP-8.5 is much too high (extremist) and would require there to be a LOT more fossils fuels than exist, let alone would be profitable to extract and refine. I think RCP-2.6 is much too high too. I just listened to Guy McPherson talk where he bases his incorrect scenario on Sam Canara's writings, a trickster who knows how to fool people with biased statistics. Fooled Guy anyway, who is not strong on statistics.


You are delusional.


Palloy SAID:
Quote
No, far from being conservative, RCP-8.5 is much too high (extremist) and would require there to be a LOT more fossils fuels than exist , let alone would be profitable to extract and refine.  I think RCP-2.6 is much too high too.


You are also a liar. I posted a video here that PROVED the EMPIRICAL Climate DATA has us tracking MORE EXTREME than the RCP 8.5 scenario!
Here it is again.

Are you going to claim the scientist in the video doesn't "understand" statistics or math too? Are you going to claim the charted EMPIRICAL data is "incorrect"? How many BULLSHIT straws are you going to grasp at now?

You know, your detatchment from reality is getting rather severe. You can still read a graph, right? I do believe they show one in the video with the RCP 8.5 track and the DATA right next to it.  ;)

Yet you STILL keep wallowing in your denial of reality. But that's how irrationally you cling to your world view.



You still owe me an apology for claiming I was wrong in stating that reality is even worse than the RCP 8.5 Global Warming scenario. RCP 8.5 is too conservative. Admit it!
Posted by: AGelbert
« on: December 12, 2017, 08:29:04 pm »

Earth's Melting Glaciers Captured in Stunning Before-and-After Images 1
 

Earth's Melting Glaciers Captured in Stunning Before-and-After Images 2
Retreat of the Columbia Glacier, Alaska, USA, by ~6.5 km between 2009 and 2015. Credit: James Balog and the Extreme Ice Survey


Earth's Melting Glaciers Captured in Stunning Before-and-After Images 3
Stein Glacier, Switzerland, retreat of ~550 m from 2006 to 2015. Credit: James Balog and the Extreme Ice Survey


Earth's Melting Glaciers Captured in Stunning Before-and-After Images 4
Solheimajokull, Iceland, retreat of ~625 m from 2007 to 2015. Credit: James Balog and the Extreme Ice Survey

Posted by: AGelbert
« on: December 12, 2017, 08:14:56 pm »

Arctic permafrost thawing faster than ever, US climate study finds


December 12, 2017

Permafrost in the Arctic is thawing faster than ever, according to a new US government report that also found Arctic seawater is warming and sea ice is melting at the fastest pace in 1,500 years.

The annual report released on Tuesday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration showed slightly less warming in many measurements than a record hot 2016. But scientists remain concerned because the far northern region is warming twice as fast as the rest of the globe and has reached a level of warming that’s unprecedented in modern times.

“2017 continued to show us we are on this deepening trend where the Arctic is a very different place than it was even a decade ago,” said Jeremy Mathis, head of NOAA’s Arctic research program and co-author of the 93-page report.

Findings were discussed at the American Geophysical Union meeting in New Orleans.

“What happens in the Arctic doesn’t stay in the Arctic; it affects the rest of the planet,” said acting NOAA chief Timothy Gallaudet. “The Arctic has huge influence on the world at large.”

Permafrost records show the frozen ground that many buildings, roads and pipelines are built on reached record warm temperatures last year nearing and sometimes exceeding the thawing point. That could make them vulnerable when the ground melts and shifts, the report said. Unlike other readings, permafrost data tend to lag a year.

Preliminary reports from the US and Canada in 2017 showed permafrost temperatures are “again the warmest for all sites” measured in North America, said study co-author Vladimir Romanovsky, a professor at the University of Alaska in Fairbanks.

Arctic sea ice usually shrinks in September and this year it was only the eighth lowest on record for the melting season. But scientists said they were most concerned about what happens in the winter – especially March – when sea ice is supposed to be building to its highest levels.

Arctic winter sea ice maximum levels in 2017 were the smallest they’ve ever been for the season when ice normally grows. It was the third straight year of record low winter sea ice recovery. Records go back to 1979.

About 79% of the Arctic sea ice is thin and only a year old. In 1985, 45% of the sea ice in the Arctic was thick, older ice, said NOAA Arctic scientist Emily Osborne.

New research looking into the Arctic’s past using ice cores, fossils, corals and shells as stand-ins for temperature measurements show that Arctic ocean temperatures are rising and sea ice levels are falling at rates not seen in the 1,500 years. And those dramatic changes coincide with the large increase in carbon dioxide levels in the air, the report said.

This isn’t just a concern for the few people who live north of the Arctic circle. Changes in the Arctic can alter fish supply. And more ice-free Arctic summers can lead to countries competing to exploit new areas for resources. Research also shows changes in Arctic sea ice and temperature can alter the jet stream, which is a major factor in US weather.

This is probably partly responsible for the current unusual weather in the United States that brought destructive wildfires to California and a sharp cold snap to the south and east, according to NOAA scientist James Overland and private meteorologist expert Judah Cohen.

“The Arctic has traditionally been the refrigerator to the planet, but the door of the refrigerator has been left open,” Mathis said.

Outside scientists praised the report card.

“Overall, the new data fit with the long-term trends, showing the clear evidence of warming causing major changes,” in the Arctic, said Pennsylvania State University ice scientist Richard Alley.

https://www.theguardian.c...haw-climate-change-report


Posted by: AGelbert
« on: December 12, 2017, 06:51:15 pm »

Dying Ecosystems



Earth’s ecosystems support all life, though collapsed ecosystems would be like stepping outside of the international space station not wearing a space suit. Pop! Bam! Gone!

A recent academic study about signals of ecosystem collapse throughout history fits the space suit analogy. Terrifying truth is exposed: The all-important biosphere is sending out warning signals of impending crises… worldwide. It does not seem possible that ecosystems collapse and life dies off. That’s too hard to believe… but, what if it does collapse?

“The Earth’s biodiversity is under attack. We would need to travel back over 65 million years to find rates of species loss as high as we are witnessing today.” (James Dyke, The Ecosystem Canaries, Which Act as Warning Signs of Collapse, The Guardian, Aug. 19, 2016).

“Biodiversity increases resilience: more species means each individual species is better able to withstand impacts. Think of decreasing biodiversity as popping out rivets from an aircraft. A few missing rivets here or there will not cause too much harm. But continuing to remove them threatens a collapse in ecosystem functioning. Forests give way to desert. Coral reefs bleach and then die,” Ibid.

It’s already happening! Imagine flying in an aircraft while watching the rivets pop, one by one. At some point in time screaming overrides thinking. But, thank heavens; we’re not quite there yet.
Scientists from University College London and the University of Maryland studied 2,378 archeological sites and discovered that every society for thousands of years gave early clues to its own demise. Of course, demise happened precisely because those early warnings were ignored, while thinking: “it’s impossible, can’t happen.”

The determinate signal of upcoming demise is referred to as “flickering,” which is a change in society’s responses to perturbations resulting in a society caught in a socio-ecological trap that reinforces negative behavior that started the issue in the first instance, thus, preventing adaption. (Source: Sean S. Downey, et al, European Neolithic Societies Showed Early Warning Signals of Population Collapse, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 113, no. 35, March 2016.)

The formula: Every time a society flickers, losing rivets, it loses recovery time, thereby moving closer to collapse. In every case study, with nearly 100% accuracy, researchers found flickers precedent to eventual collapse All but 2 of 27 test cases showed statistically significant results. Every case experienced massive population growth as a result of the emergence of agriculture followed by technological advancements. Sound familiar?

Societal decline is empirically signaled by any number of drivers such as (1) changing climate, (2) declining environmental productivity, (3) disease, (4) warfare, or (5) combinations thereof. Today, we’ve got’em all.

Rivets are popping all across the globe, e.g., the Great Barrier Reef, the largest living structure in the world, is signaling its demise like there’s no tomorrow. “Many scientists are now saying it is almost too late to save it. Strong and immediate action is required to alleviate water pollution and stop the underlying cause: climate change.” (Source: Michael Slezak, The Great Barrier Reef: A Catastrophe Laid Bare, The Guardian, June 6, 2016.)

According to David Attenborough, the world’s most famous naturalist: “The Great Barrier Reef is in grave danger… The twin perils brought by climate change – an increase in the temperature of the ocean and in its acidity – threaten its very existence,” Ibid. In point of fact, Attenborough’s remarkable new film Blue Planet 2 details the damage wreaked in the seas by climate change, plastic pollution, and overfishing. This final episode of his series lays bare shocking damage.

Compared with what was happening before the 20th century, three-times as much sediment, twice as much fertilizer and 17,000 extra kilograms of herbicide wash over the reef each year. When the coral dies, the entire ecosystem gets hit. Fish that feed on the coral, use it as shelter, or nibble on the algae die or move away. The bigger fish that feed on those fish disappear. But the cascading effects don’t stop there. Birds that eat fish lose their energy source, and island plants that thrive on bird droppings are depleted. And, of course, people who rely on reefs for food, income or shelter from waves lose their vital resource, as the final rivets pop followed by high-pitched screaming.
The signal or flicker of the Great Coral Reef is not nature’s way. It is an anomaly. It is easy to read about it and dismiss it and go on with life, but, in large measure, that’s the problem haunting and overriding ecosystem disintegration. It’s easy to read but punishingly painful to fix. Unwavering commitment is simply not there but for a select few like David Attenborough or Sylvia Earle, the world famous marine biologist.

Alas, groundswell of public opinion is not extant for collapsing ecosystems. It’s just not there at all. Yet, one hundred million people will be glued to TVs watching Super Bowl LII on Sunday, February 4th 2018, whilst the fate of the world’s largest and most important ecosystem rest in the hands of Attenborough, Earle and a handful of dedicated naturalists/marine biologists. Singularly, as well as unfortunately, ecosystem collapse is warranted based upon mathematical calculations alone: One hundred million (100,000,000) watch football while a handful of scientists work at fixing the world’s seas. Football’s more immediate.

Ad interim, massive environmental degradation flickers around the world, including climate change-derived crop losses for which the Federal Crop Insurance Program pays out $17.3B.

Meanwhile, heavily sprayed agrichemical pesticides and fertilizers bring about the absolutely shocking discovery that parts of the ecosystem are dropping dead right before society’s eyes, seventy-five percent (75%) insect loss detected in a major 27-yr. German study. How in the world is it possible for a 75% insect die-off, if not for chemically infested environmental degradation?

As it happens, the list of collapsing/flickering ecosystems is a very long list indeed. Here’s only a smattering:

Oceans have lost 40% of plankton production over past 50 years, threatening loss of one of the major sources of oxygen for the planet. (Boris Worm, Dalhousie Univ.)

If the same amount of global heat that went into top 2000m of ocean from 1955-2010 went instead into atmosphere, temps would warm by 36 C and destroy all life (Grantham Institute).

“Ocean seasons are changing as a result of too much heat and CO2… The scale of ocean warming is truly staggering with numbers so large that it is difficult for most people to comprehend.” (D. Laffoley, IUCN Global Marine and Polar Programme).

The ocean’s acidification rate of growth is unprecedented in Earth’s known history. (Jane Lubchenco, NOAA).

Ocean acidification occurring at least 1oxs faster than 55 million years ago based upon paleoclimate record. (C.L. Dybas, Oxford)

Nearly all marine life that builds calcium carbonate show deterioration due to increasing levels of CO2 and acidification. (Richard Feely, NOAA).

A foreboding flicker haunts the Arctic Circle, as permafrost melts away as a result of anthropogenic (human-caused) global warming, awakening forgotten pathogens from the depths. A Russian team analyzed material from 125 feet below surface in permafrost. They found extremely abnormal viruses, e.g., Pithovirus Sibericum, which survived 30,000 years frozen in ice. All of which brings to mind John Carpenter’s spectacular film The Thing (1982), and likelihood that zombie pathogens are buried in super-charged-melting-like-crazy permafrost.

Seven thousand (7,000) pingos discovered in Siberia… new development in permafrost science, never reported before, there could be 100,000 explosive methane pingos extant. (Vladimir Romanovsky, geophysicist Univ. of Alaska)

The East Siberian Arctic Shelf has reached “thaw point,” the turning point from linear to exponential release of CH4 leading to runaway global warming. (Natalia Shakhova, Int’l Arctic Research Centre)

Methane emissions in East Siberian Ice Shelves are 100xs higher than normal. (Igor Semiletov, Int’l Arctic Research Centre)

Tibetan Plateau headwater glaciers for Lancang River (Danube of the East) down by 70%- similarly for Yellow River and Yangtze River- that flow into Mekong Delta, which feeds the entire SE Asia basin of countries. (Yang Yong- Senior Chinese Geologist)

According to YaleEnvironment360: “As Oceans Warm, the World’s Kelp Forests Begin to Disappear,” Nov. 20,2017: “Kelp forests – luxuriant coastal ecosystems that are home to a wide variety of marine biodiversity – are being wiped out from Tasmania to California, replaced by sea urchin barrens that are nearly devoid of life.” Tasmania’s kelp forests hit by a devastating loss of 95%. In northern California, magnificent bull kelp forests along hundreds of miles of coastline have collapsed into an ecological wasteland, ocean desert.

Venice, Italy risks going on the UN’s endangered heritage site list unless it bans humongous cruise ships from the city’s lagoon, which is rapidly deteriorating into a state of utter disrepair.

Greenland’s entire surface experienced melt for the first time in scientific history. (Jason Box – Geologic Survey of Denmark & Greenland)

Greenland 2012 melt of the entire island not expected by scientific models for decades ahead, but it hit in 2012. (Michael Mann)

The all-important Atlantic ocean conveyor belt circulation pattern, aka: Thermohaline, has already started to slow down way ahead of schedule as predicted by scientific models – a result of global warming. This has strong negative ramifications for Europe. Models claimed it wouldn’t start slowing until 22nd century. It’s already started slowing down and could be sudden, maybe within decades! (Michael Mann)

In 2017, the Gulf of Mexico’s Dead Zone, where oxygen is so weak that fish die, is the largest ever at 8,800 square miles. (NOAA)

Positive Climate Feedbacks just starting to influence the warming process, meaning the planet itself is now emitting one molecule of CO2 via positive feedback for every two molecules of CO2 emitted by human activity. (Scripps Institution of Oceanography)

The scientific journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences has reported that the Earth is already in the stages of the sixth mass extinction, which will see the world’s wildlife and plants die out. The research found that species, including those, which are not endangered, had reduced in number due to habitation shrinkage, hunting, pollution and climate change.

The deadly trio, or fingerprints, of mass extinctions, including global warming, ocean acidification, and anoxia or lack of ocean oxygen at current rate of change are unprecedented in Earth’s known history. (Alex Rogers, Oxford, scientific director State of the Ocean)

According to YaleEnvironment360, d/d April 2017, a survey of 12,000 adults and children shows that people have lost a closeness or connection with nature. “It is increasingly normal to spend little time outside.”

In the face of people mindlessly staring at very small and/or super large screens, the planet’s ecosystems are flashing signals all the way from Patagonia to Burrow, Alaska with bells clanging, alarms blaring, sirens screeching, but not a word on Good Morning America. Ergo, people really do not know what’s going on, which in a strange, twisted macabre fashion may be a blessing in disguise, until the final rivets pop. Then, loud screaming will register all across the land: Off with their heads! But whose?

Postscript: For each of the past 5 mass extinctions the one common factor has been massive increase in CO2, but none of the mass extinctions in the past compare to the spike in CO2 today. (Jen Veron, Australian Institute of Marine Science)

https://www.counterpunch....7/12/11/dying-ecosystems/

Posted by: AGelbert
« on: December 11, 2017, 06:44:04 pm »




The Still-Raging Thomas Fire Torches Its Way into California Wildfire History

Bob Henson  ·  December 11, 2017, 3:40 PM EST


Above: The Multi Spectral Imager of the European Space Agency’s Sentinel-2 satellite captured this false-color image of the burn scar and active burn areas of the Thomas Fire in Southern California on Tuesday, December 5, during its first phase of rapid growth. The fire has since burned much further beyond the left and top of the image. Active fires appear orange; the burn scar is brown. Unburned vegetation is green; developed areas are gray. The Sentinel-2 image is based on observations of visible, shortwave infrared, and near infrared light. The city of Ventura is at far lower right. https://go.nasa.gov/2B6Drov

Partial Article:

ore than 6000 firefighters were engaged in a furious effort on Monday to contain the Thomas Fire, the largest of the multiple wildfires that have pummeled Southern California over the past week. The Thomas Fire made an enormous westward surge on Sunday, consuming tens of thousands of acres in Santa Barbara County and reducing the fire’s total containment level from 15% to 10%. Incredibly, the 57,000 acres burned between Sunday and Monday morning far exceeded the entire coverage of October’s catastrophic Tubbs Fire in the Santa Rosa area (36,807 acres).­

As of Monday morning, Cal Fire reported that the Thomas Fire had officially consumed 230,000 acres and at least 790 structures, making it the fifth largest and tenth most destructive wildfire in state history. Two of the top 20 most damaging fires occurred in November, but none of the previous top 20 fires in terms of acreage occurred any later than October—much less in December, well beyond the typical tail end of wildfire season. It’s entirely possible this fire will burn till Christmas and beyond, and not out of the question it will roll past the Cedar Fire of 2003 (273,246 acres) to become California’s largest fire on record.

On Monday morning, evacuation zones extended to the northern and eastern outskirts of the city of Santa Barbara and included coastal communities from Summerland to Carpinteria (see Figure 1). The University of California, Santa Barbara, postponed its final exams till early January.


Figure 1. Evacuation zones in Santa Barbara County as of 8 am PST Monday, December 11, 2017. Mandatory evacuations (red) cover a huge swath of higher terrain. Voluntary evacuations (orange) extend even further west, while also including more than 10 miles of land along the coast from the eastern end of the city of Santa Barbara to east of Carpinteria. If you are in the region of the Thomas Fire, please consult local authorities for the latest evacuation guidance. Image credit: County of Santa Barbara, via Google My Maps.


Figure 2. Christmas decorations illuminated a house in Carpinteria, Calif., on Sunday, December 10, 2017, as the growing Thomas Fire advanced toward seaside communities in Santa Barbara County. Image credit: David McNew/Getty Images.

Stubborn offshore flow, dry air will continue to hamper firefighting

Crews have gotten the upper hand on the other major fires that broke out last week. All of them were at least 75% contained as of late Sunday. However, the Thomas Fire is a beast unto itself. Control efforts have been complicated by the fire’s sheer scope, the ruggedness of the terrain, and the ample fuel present in the form of thick brush. Although major fires have occurred in the rugged land of Santa Barbara County every few decades, some tracts of land in this area reportedly haven’t seen a major fire for more than a century.

If nothing else, fire weather across coastal Southern California will be less extreme this week than last week. The highly amplified upper-level ridge has weakened and shifted north, and the pressure contrasts pushing air from the Great Basin toward and over the coastal ranges will be less intense overall. On the down side, however, surface winds will continue to blow in a downslope/offshore direction, allowing the air to warm as it descends. As a result, temperatures will remain well above average, especially during the daytime, and relative humidity will continue to dip into the 5-15% range. Weaker winds in general will be a major help in firefighting, though any periods of intensified wind could help the Thomas Fire take advantage of the very dry atmosphere.

In its Monday morning outlook, the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center put coastal southern California in “elevated” fire risk for both Monday and Tuesday. The center noted the possibility of an upgrade to “critical” (the second highest level) if winds increase somewhat on Tuesday, as models suggest.

In the longer range, forecast models continue to suggest a dry pattern across Southern California and the Southwest U.S. prevailing for at least the next 1-2 weeks.   


Full article:

https://www.wunderground....lifornia-wildfire-history






Posted by: AGelbert
« on: December 11, 2017, 06:05:48 pm »

How Our Health is Harmed (NOW) by Climate Change (it WILL get worse! )



Learn more from Medical Doctors:

http://medsocietiesforcli...armed-climate-change-map/

The Fossil Fuelers DID THE Clean Energy  Inventions suppressing, Climate Trashing, human health depleting CRIME,   but since they have ALWAYS BEEN liars and conscience free crooks, they are trying to AVOID   DOING THE TIME or     PAYING THE FINE!     Don't let them get away with it! Pass it on!   
Posted by: AGelbert
« on: December 11, 2017, 05:29:13 pm »

Climate Change is Bad for Health - Dr. Ahdoot's Story

This compelling video, featuring Dr. Samantha Ahdoot, highlights some of the ways our changing climate is affecting human health. Some vulnerable populations are particularly at risk, such as our nation’s children.


Dr. Samantha Ahdoot is an Assistant Professor of Pediatrics at Virginia Commonwealth University School of Medicine, and a partner with Pediatric Associates of Alexandria.

Learn more from Medical Doctors about Climate Change Damage to your Health (and wallet!) that the fossil fuelers and the profit over people and planet media will not tell you:

What Your Doctor Needs to Know About Climate Change

Posted November 27, 2017

Members in Action

SNIPPET:

TG: What’s your biggest concern in the relationship between climate change and health?

MS: The greatest concern is that, unless many more people connect the dots between climate change and the more and more blatant phenomena on the landscape, we may fail to act fast enough. The phenomena include excessive rain storms accompanied by flooding, larger more destructive wildfires, increased frequency of dangerously hot days, and the dramatic spread of ticks and mosquitos that carry illness.

It concerns me that people who are in excellent health may find it difficult to understand that not everyone is like them; in fact, other people are experiencing health harms because of climate change. But luckily, people tend to believe their doctors. Many physicians are very clear about what they are seeing. This explains is why we could get 18 medical societies, including all the largest ones, to come together as a group and send a clear message to the public and policymakers about the health harms of climate change and the health benefits of climate solutions. The Consortium represents well over half the doctors in the U.S. We are clear that climate change is harming health today—including mental health–and will be more harmful tomorrow if we don’t act.

Read more:

https://medsocietiesforcl...eeds-know-climate-change/
Posted by: AGelbert
« on: December 09, 2017, 10:13:48 pm »

Eddie, if a person comes to you with such severe problems in his teeth and gums that you, as an experienced dentist, KNOW he has a 93% chance of losing all his teeth, plus possible blood poisoning and God knows what else, you will, of course, tell him the bitter prognocis. But that does NOT mean that you would avoid learning WHAT HE DID to cause the diseased condition so he will not CONTINUE TO DO IT. That does not mean that, RIGHT NOW, you will not do your best to save some of his teeth.

Actually, what you do in this situation is avoid going to a Dentist who charges as much as Eddie does and fly down to Mexico to have the offending teeth yanked for 10 cents on the dollar by a Mexican Dentist.  Then you adjust to the new way of life by eating mostly soft foods.  My diet consists of stuff like Brie Cheese, Cottage Cheese, Bananas, Berries, Sashimi, Soups of various kinds, Raw Meat (either ground sirloin or thin sliced filet mignon if I feel like spending), rice & beans, etc.  When I do have enough of an appetite to actually eat, I have no problem fulfilling my nutritional requirements with the 6 teeth I have left at the top front of my mouth.

To extend the analogy, when your teeth are so far gone you can't fix them, don't waste your money getting expensive implants from an expensive Dentist.  Get rid of the fu ck ing teeth and adjust to the New Reality.

We need to adjust to the new reality here, not try to fix a terminally broken set of teeth.

RE

RE,
I understand what you did with your dentition and I'm glad it worked for you. But can you honestly say that you solved all your health problems with that decision? Can you honestly say that your diet did not contribute to PAD and other health woes you are now experiencing? If you want to push the analogy, I must say to you that you cannot simply cherry pick a symptoms solving therapy that solved the teeth issue but did not address the root causes in your overall health problems.

Reality IS. I ALWAYS deal with it. Sometimes I do not deal with it all that successfully , but I will not pretend it ain't there.

I disagree strongly with you if you think that I am the one "not adjusting to reality". The costs here are not just measured in dollars and cents; they are measured in quality of life and longevity. You are experiencing the effects of everything you have eaten and all the toxins you have been exposed to throughout your life. A decade ago, when I was a year older than you are now, I had to have a pacemaker implanted. I did not just treat the symptoms; I changed my activites to prevent further problems. It has worked well. That's all I'm saying we should do. I know you long ago made some decisions that you KNEW would shorten your life (like refusing to stop smoking). You have accepted that the consequences of that decision are inescapable. Accepting that REALITY is worthy of respect. It shows that you, unlike Palloy, understand that there ARE CAUSES, ROOT CAUSES, to any health problems we have now.

As to the inescapable reality of the accelerating deterioration of our environment and our society, Palloy is the one who cannot handle it. This la la land view that global warming and catastrophic climate change is "all going to go away with collapse" is the ultimate in wishful thinking and straw grasping.



RE, what part of the following do you not agree with?
Quote
Even if carbon dioxide emissions came to a sudden halt, the carbon dioxide already in Earth’s atmosphere could continue to warm our planet for hundreds of years, according to Princeton University-led research published in the journal Nature Climate Change.

I refuse to engage in Palloy's magical thinking, PERIOD!


Eddie said:
Quote
I think you make good points. I think the "silver lining" of collapse (if there is one) though, is that there is some truth to Palloy's thesis, which is that collapse will be what limits climate change.

I don't know whether immediate collapse tomorrow or next week would limit climate change ENOUGH to save humans or the higher animals, but I think it's possible. I'm not optimistic that it would, for the reason you stated. And I agree with you that reducing carbon emissions immediately is still a good idea.

As of now, it seems to still be getting worse instead of better, and those who should be leading us into a lower energy future are instead in complete denial, and doing all the wrong things.

It's seems more likely to me that collapse will do more to limit climate change than all the governments and al the elites and al the current lip service to change. that's a pessimistic view, I know, and I wish I had more reason not to be such a pessimist.


Eddie,

NO, Palloy's point is without any logical or rational foundation whatsover. A collapse WILL NOT stop global warming for several centuries. Until you can somehow prove that humans can routinely live under horrendous climate conditions for over 200 years, you do not have any basis whatsoever to assume that a collapse will "improve" the climate during those 200 years (2018-2218 at least!). Sure, after 1,000 years or so, the average global atmospheric temperature will start going down from ABOUT 10º C ABOVE Pre-Industrial!

It's wishful thinking that Palloy is engaging in. It's irrational to think otherwise.
Posted by: AGelbert
« on: December 09, 2017, 05:33:50 pm »



Here's the Teacher-Friendly Antidote to Heartland Institute's Anti-Science School Propaganda

Saturday, December 09, 2017

By Ashley Braun, DeSmogBlog | Report

SNIPPET:

Taking on Heartland Institute Myths

While they don't explicitly mention the Heartland teacher mailing in the FAQ, Duggan-Haas pointed out, "The first question of the FAQ chapter is 'Is there a consensus among climate scientists that global warming is occurring and that humans are the cause?'"

The title of the Heartland book, of course, was Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming

"That's a pretty direct response to the theme of their publication," he said.

In keeping with best practices for science communication, Duggan-Haas said they didn't want to trigger the "backfire effect," a phenomenon that may occur when trying to correct misinformation.

"We're trying to avoid restating the myth in a way that would reinforce it," he said. 

Ross agreed: "We did not dwell on the Heartland Institute, even in the FAQ, but we did try to make sure we addressed some of the most important points that the Heartland Institute was making in their propaganda."

In its FAQ, the Paleontological Research Institution's teacher guide answers 18 questions touching on common climate science denier points, including why we can trust the proven reliability of computer climate models and why humans, rather than natural variation or the sun, are the most likely explanation for observed global warming.

One of the questions, "Are people who are arguing that global warming is happening being alarmists?" is a likely reference to the derogatory term, "alarmist," frequently used by the Heartland Institute and other climate denier organizations.

Full article:

http://www.truth-out.org/...science-school-propaganda

FREE The Teacher-Friendly Guide to Climate Change

Stop the KOCHROACH  propaganda lies! Please pass this on.   

Posted by: AGelbert
« on: December 09, 2017, 03:35:53 pm »

http://grist.org/briefly/inmates-are-risking-their-lives-to-fight-californias-raging-fires/

Briefly
Stuff that matters
risky business


DAVID MCNEW / Stringer / Getty Images Inmates are risking their lives to fight California’s raging fires.
As wildfires tear through the greater Los Angeles area, destroying hundreds of homes, officials have warned nearly 200,000 people to evacuate.

Thousands of firefighters have arrived on the scene — many of them inmates, who make up about a third of the state’s wildfire-fighting force. Since the 1940s, California has relied on inmates to combat the flames by digging containment lines and clearing away brush. In return for this difficult and dangerous work — which has been compared to slave-era labor conditions — inmates get credit toward early parole and $2 per day in camp plus $1 per hour for their time on the fire line.

Roughly 250 women inmates serve on California’s firefighting force, risking their lives to get out of prison faster.

“I’ve seen women come back with broken ankles and broken arms, burns, or just suffering from exhaustion, you know, the psychological stress that people go through trying to just pass the requirements,” Romarilyn Ralston, a former firefighter trainer, told PBS.

As climate change makes wildfires worse, state officials are scrambling to recruit more inmates to fight them.
Posted by: AGelbert
« on: December 08, 2017, 02:44:01 pm »


An enormous waterfall gushes off the Nansen Ice Shelf. Credit: Jonathan Kingslake


New Climate Study: Most Severe Warming Projections Are Now the Most Likely

December 8, 2017

By Tim Radford

SNIPPET:

Global warming, under the notorious "business-as-usual scenario" in which humans go on burning fossil fuels to power economic growth, could by 2100 be at least 15 percent warmer than the worst UN projections so far. And the spread of uncertainty in such gloomy forecasts has been narrowed as well.

Climate scientists had worked on the assumption that there was a 62 percent chance that the world would have warmed on average by more than 4°C if no action was taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

But a new study has not only raised the stakes, it has narrowed the uncertainty. There is now a 93 percent chance that global warming will—once again, under the business-as-usual scenario—exceed 4°C by 2100.


Full article:

https://www.ecowatch.com/...nge-study-2515859984.html

Agelbert NOTE: For over a decade many observant and objectively analytical scientists have been saying that business as usual is suicidal and must not continue if we are to survive and proper as a species.

I have been voicing these warnings for over 5 years now.

It is sad that only major repeated catastrophic climate change events will finally get the greedballs running our civilization to smell the extinction coffee. WHY? Because it is crystal clear that any and all actions, as of a few years ago, will not stop the destruction for over a century.

We are now commited to a 4º C temperature increase horror.


Every YEAR, not every several years, that criminals like Trump delay action means more widespread deaths, misery and multiple extinctiions in the biosphere humanity requires to survive.

God will NOT intervene. He gave us FREE WILL! The wages of sin are DEATH.


For those of you who do not think that SIN is the problem here, please remember that SIN means to miss the mark. ANYBODY that thinks those running this profit over people and planet suicidal system are not MISSING THE MARK is in willful denial of reality.


And for all those happy wishful thinking GROUP THINKER Buddhists, who are so reality challenged  that they think you "cannor sin" because there is no "right or wrong" behavior to define "missing the mark", I can only say that you are too far up that river in Egypt to be of any use whatsoever in combating the evil that afflicts our society. I am sure that the evil forces in this world are quite happy to see so many people pretending that evil does not exist. You must be the brunt of jokes in the top Capitalist Profit over People and planet Board Meetings all over the planet.    

And mind you, the horror of a 4º C increase (PLUS!) may NOT be as far away as this new study predicts. Bear in mind that for the last three decades, EVERY SINGLE PREDICTION of temperature increase and global ice melt has been incredibly off the rapidly increasing global warming measured reality. Look at this chart and realize that those in charge are NOT going to keep you and your family from dying in heat and misery unless they are replaced by people who CARE about DOING THE RIGHT THING FOR GOD IN THE BIOSPHERE, PERIOD!



The Fossil Fuelers DID THE Clean Energy  Inventions suppressing, Climate Trashing, human health depleting CRIME,   but since they have ALWAYS BEEN liars and conscience free crooks, they are trying to AVOID   DOING THE TIME or     PAYING THE FINE!     Don't let them get away with it! Pass it on!   
Posted by: AGelbert
« on: December 08, 2017, 01:01:05 pm »

Wildfires are Leveling LA Neighborhoods, Is There More to Come?

Yes.  Further high winds and dry conditions expected tomorrow, then all week next week.

One has to wonder how CA musters up the money to pay the overtime to all these firefighters?  ???   

RE

Many of the firefighters are prison labor paid one dollar per hour.  :P When slavery was abolished in the USA over a century ago, the Capitalists left an exception for prison labor. LEGAL Prison (SLAVE) labor is a growth industry in the United Fascist States of America.   

 
Posted by: AGelbert
« on: December 07, 2017, 08:22:05 pm »

 



December 7, 2017

Wildfires are Leveling LA Neighborhoods, Is There More to Come?

TRNN's Climate Crisis Bureau speaks to leading experts to examine how climate change has contributed to the worst wildfire season ever recorded in California

http://therealnews.com/t2...emid=74&jumival=20664
Posted by: AGelbert
« on: December 06, 2017, 06:52:38 pm »



California's Year of Hellfire Continues As a Huge Blaze Erupts Outside of Los Angeles

December 6, 2017

Brian Kahn

SNIPPET:

The National Weather Service fire forecast indicates that extreme or critical fire weather could affect 20 million Southern Californians today and tomorrow. Through next week, that number balloons to 36 million.

The National Weather Service’s San Diego office took to Twitter to beg for a pattern change later this month. Right now, the city is on track to have tie 1929 for its driest start to the water year on record.

Parts of Southern California have been bone dry since the start of the water year on Oct. 1. Image: NOAA Western Regional Climate Center



Full article:


https://earther.com/calif...s-a-huge-blaze-1821012661

Agelbert NOTE: The level of CO and CO2 in the Los Angeles area right now is off the charts. :P  See for yourself:

https://earth.nullschool....raphic=-122.90,34.98,3000


I seem to remember reading about something else that happened in 1929...

Posted by: AGelbert
« on: December 06, 2017, 06:25:19 pm »





Dramatic Iceberg Breakup in Antarctica Has Scientists Even More Worried

December 6, 2017

Maddie Stone

SNIPPET:

“What’s both interesting and of concern is the lines along which the iceberg has broken follow the pattern of crevasses developed in the ice shelf that it calved from,” Larter continued. “This change of behavior might reflect the crevasses within the ice shelf having an increasing influence on the spacing and pattern of iceberg calving.”

Pine island is currently shedding about 45 billion tons of ice a year. Scientists are watching closely for signs that the glacier will retreat faster as temperatures rise (they’ve already risen more than two degrees Celsius at the nearby Byrd Station). And several recent calving events—a 252-square-mile glacier in 2013, a 225-square-miles glacier in 2015, and the 72-square-mile glacier earlier this year—have put the Antarctic science community on edge.

Full article:

https://earther.com/drama...s-scientists-e-1821018353
Posted by: AGelbert
« on: December 03, 2017, 06:24:59 pm »

http://www.cnn.com/2017/1...-recovery-trnd/index.html

75 days after Maria, this is life in St. Croix



By Cassandra Santiago, CNN

Updated 6:33 AM ET, Sun December 3, 2017

(CNN)The sound of rattling generators fill Tarik McMillan's ears when he wakes up.

The noise is all around him, a mix between a car engine and a really big blender.

On St. Croix, an island where many places still don't have power, the diesel generators in his neighborhood rumble through the night.
He walks to the kitchen and greets his grandpa, who's boiling water on a propane stove to make coffee. Without power, the coffeemaker is a museum piece.



Tarik McMillan

It's been 75 days since Hurricane Maria hammered the US Virgin Islands, and although the buzz of daily life is returning, the storm's ghost hovers over everything.

Power remains out for more than 60% of the territory. On St. Croix, the largest of the islands, only about a fourth of residents -- known as Crucians -- have electricity. Many homes still have no roofs. Cell networks are spotty.

This is the new normal for McMillan and the islands' other residents as they negotiate their daily lives. There's a gigantic line on their calendar -- before Maria, and after. Almost nothing about the two is the same...










[/center]

Posted by: AGelbert
« on: December 02, 2017, 01:09:21 pm »

EcoWatch

Global Warming Hiatus Isn’t Over: It Never Began

December 2, 2017

By Tim Radford

SNIPPET:

Just weeks after one group of scientists officially declared an end to the global warming pause, the so-called hiatus, another group has returned to the argument.

They argue that there never was a pause in global warming. There was instead a global misperception that warming slowed between 1998 and 2012, but only because of gaps in the data, in particular from the Arctic, the fastest-warming region of the planet.

"We recalculated the average global temperatures from 1998 to 2012 and found that the rate of global warming had continued to rise at 0.112°C per decade instead of slowing down to 0.05°C per decade as previously thought," said Xiangdong Zhang, of the International Arctic Research Centre at the University of Alaska, Fairbanks.

He and colleagues report in the journal Nature Climate Change that their new estimates suggest that the Arctic had warmed by more than six times the global average during the first dozen or so years of this century.

The argument about the apparent slowdown in the rate of increase in global warming—that warming slowed but never stopped—provides a case study of science in action.

Full article:

https://www.ecowatch.com/...ng-hiatus-2513233956.html
Posted by: AGelbert
« on: November 30, 2017, 07:21:50 pm »


Copperband butterflyfish tolerate a narrow range of temperatures, and already live at the edge of their limits. Ocean warming could push them (and other tropical fish) over the edge.  :( Photo Credit: Credit: POPimage/Shutterstock

Coral reef fish have the most to lose from climate change

BY: Madeline Bodin Thursday November 2, 2017

SNIPPET:

Quote
What’s at stake is more than the survival of the copperband butterflyfish. That’s because protecting coral reefs also protects the people that depend on them, McLeod said. “We have a moral obligation.”    


Of all the fish in the sea, tropical species are the most vulnerable. In streams and lakes, the opposite is true: Cold water fish are most likely to lose. Credit: Lotus_studio/Shutterstock


Full article:


http://oceana.org/blog/co...-most-lose-climate-change
Posted by: AGelbert
« on: November 28, 2017, 08:55:49 pm »

Is Puerto Rico Being Ethnically Cleansed for the Rich?


Thom is joined by Harvey Wasserman to discuss how after the devastating hurricane, predatory capitalists have started ethnically cleansing Puerto Rico to make it a paradise for the rich.

Thom Hartmann Nov. 27, 2017 6:00 pm
Posted by: AGelbert
« on: November 28, 2017, 05:55:28 pm »

 

 

November 28, 2017


Dangerous Climate Change is Here and Worse to Come, Major Report Warns

Contributing author to the report for the US Congress, Columbia University climate scientist, Dr. Radley Horton says more extreme weather events will be more common if U.S. doesn't curb use of fossil fuel



Agelbert NOTE: The NEW report discussed in the video states we are headed for a FIVE DEGREE C INCREASE!

http://therealnews.com/t2...27%20style=%27color:#000;

The Fossil Fuelers DID THE Clean Energy  Inventions suppressing, Climate Trashing, human health depleting CRIME,   but since they have ALWAYS BEEN liars and conscience free crooks, they are trying to AVOID   DOING THE TIME or     PAYING THE FINE!     Don't let them get away with it! Pass it on!   
Posted by: AGelbert
« on: November 26, 2017, 07:58:44 pm »

More Evidence of Runaway Greenhouse Gas Caused Catastrophic Climate Change
Agelbert NOTE: As Global Warming increases, storms form in places they did not form before. Have a nice day.



Nov 20, 2017

Rare hybrid tropical storm in the Mediterranean Sea 

NOAA/NASA's Suomi NPP captured this image of a rare tropical-like storm system in the Mediterranean Sea intensifying off of Italy's southern coast on November 18, 2017. The image shows a well-defined eyewall as the storm entered the Ionian Sea between Italy and Greece.

Named 'Numa' by the Free University of Berlin's Institute of Meteorology, the storm has caused heavy rainfall and deadly flooding in Greece and parts of the Balkans. Numa is considered a hybrid storm, with both tropical and subtropical characteristics. The Mediterranean Sea typically is not conducive to tropical cyclone development, due to its relatively shallow depth and the limited amount of open water uninterrupted by land areas.

Although true-color images like this may appear to be photographs of Earth, they aren't. They are created by combining data from the three color channels on the VIIRS instrument sensitive to the red, green and blue (or RGB) wavelengths of light into one composite image. In addition, data from several other channels are often also included to cancel out or correct atmospheric interference that may blur parts of the image.

    
Terms of Use:   Please credit NOAA/NASA

Keywords:   Mediterranean Sea, NPP, VIIRS, 2017.11.18


https://www.nnvl.noaa.gov...ID=2150&MediaTypeID=1
Posted by: AGelbert
« on: November 25, 2017, 06:29:46 pm »


Agelbert NOTE: Above is a screenshot from the video posted here. It's a long video, but Kevin Anderson makes it crystal clear that mitigating climate change is NOT about technofixes.


Bottom Line: NO ETHICS taught in universities and reinforced with laws against unethical behavior in business, NO VIABLE BIOSPHERE for humanity's offspring.


Are universities making the world worse? Education and research in an age of climate change

Centre for Environment and Development Studies in Uppsala, CEMUS

Published on Aug 10, 2017

From Almedalen 2017.

Kevin Anderson, Zennström Visiting Professor in Climate Change Leadership, Uppsala University

Josefin Wangel Weithz, Associate Professor in Sustainable Urban Development, KTH

Johanna van Schaik Dernfalk, Unit manager, Environmental and Agricultural Sciences, Formas

What is the role of universities in response to the great environmental and social challenges of our times? In an age of escalating climate change, ecological unravelling and societal instability and uncertainty, what is higher education and research really for? And for whom?

Posted by: AGelbert
« on: November 24, 2017, 07:53:07 pm »



Scientist Kevin Anderson: Our Socio-Economic Paradigm Is Incompatible With Climate Change Objectives


Democracy Now!

Published on Nov 16, 2017

https://democracynow.org - Broadcasting from the United Nations Climate Summit in Bonn, Germany, we continue our conversation with Kevin Anderson, one of the world’s leading climate scientists. Anderson is deputy director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research and professor of energy and climate change at the University of Manchester in Britain. The report is entitled “Can the Climate Afford Europe’s Gas Addiction?”

Democracy Now! is an independent global news hour that airs weekdays on nearly 1,400 TV and radio stations Monday through Friday. Watch our livestream 8-9AM ET: https://democracynow.org

Please consider supporting independent media by making a donation to Democracy Now! today: https://democracynow.org/donate


Posted by: AGelbert
« on: November 24, 2017, 07:33:31 pm »


Kevin Anderson & Hugh Hunt - Quit the loose talk on climate change and let's get serious!

UPFSI .org

Published on Nov 17, 2017

In this Climate Matters show live from COP-23 in Bonn, Kevin Anderson of Britain's Tyndall Center and Hugh Hunt of Cambridge University, go at it in a lively discussion of all the loose talk happening about climate change and the lack of meaningful action. A lively and light conversation for a very serious and weighty subject.

Category: Education

License: Standard YouTube License



Posted by: AGelbert
« on: November 24, 2017, 07:21:42 pm »

Coming Soon to your community: WATCH this real video of DESTRUCTIVE wind shifts:
Hurricane Maria Damage Estimate of $102 Billion Surpassed Only by Katrina

Dr. Jeff Masters  ·  November 22, 2017, 12:57 PM EST

SNIPPET:


Video 1. This video taken at Yabucoa, Puerto Rico, near Hurricane Maria’s landfall point shows an extraordinary reversal of Maria’s eyewall winds multiple times. The first huge gust happens around 0:50, throwing cars around. The reversal of the winds multiple times could be due to tornado-scale mesovortices embedded in the eyewall, in combination with the funneling effect of the high rise building across the street. Interestingly, a video shot by storm chaser Josh Morgerman of iCyclone just a few miles away shows a flow that is smoother and steadier, without wild directional shifts. He writes: “This makes sense, because I was right at the coast, where the wind was coming off the open ocean with very little friction.” (The weird reversing wind video was shot a couple of miles inland, where there was lots of friction.) Maria made landfall in Yabucoa, Puerto Rico as a strong category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 155 mph.


Full article with several eye opening graphics and drone video:

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/hurricane-maria-damages-102-billion-surpassed-only-katrina

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