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Topic Summary

Posted by: Surly1
« on: September 19, 2019, 07:05:58 am »

Sea Level Rise Maps
Speculative maps showing the changes to our world from an 80m sea level rise. Effectively all ice on earth having melted. Created with a variety of climate science reference, digital elevation models, and Photoshop.

Northern Hemisphere Sea Level Rise

Vancouver Sea Level Rise

Vancouver Sea Level Rise

Bay Area Sea Level Rise

Bay Area Sea Level Rise

Toronto Sea Level Rise

Toronto Sea Level Rise

Europe Sea Level Rise

Europe Sea Level Rise

North America Sea Level Rise

North America Sea Level Rise

Asia Sea Level Rise

Asia Sea Level Rise

Posted by: Surly1
« on: September 19, 2019, 06:57:16 am »

'Dead tree after dead tree.' The case of Washington's dying foliage

Trees are shown through fog on Friday, April 5, 2019, in the Hoh Rainforest on the Olympic Peninsula.
When Jim and Judy Davis moved to their property in Granite Falls two and a half years ago, the trees in their 25-acre forest were healthy.

Then the hemlocks started to turn brown.

Now, “if we were to walk this path completely -- it’s about a quarter of a mile -- this is what you would see,” Jim Davis said, “just dead tree after dead tree.

“It’s just a feeling of sadness and helplessness."

News outlets around the country are providing special coverage this week of climate change. KUOW will have stories and interviews on the crisis and what to do about it. #ClimateCoverageNow

So the Davises called in Kevin Zobrist.

“I feel like I'm always coming out to a crime scene, you know: another dead tree, another one lost, coming out to investigate,” Zobrist said.

Zobrist is a forestry professor at Washington State University. He said this isn’t just a problem on the Davis’ property.

“When I drive up and down the highways around western Washington, I just see dead and dying hemlocks all up and down the roads,” Zobrist said. “We first noticed it right around 2016, and now I just see it everywhere.”

And it’s not just hemlocks. Western red cedars and big-leaf maples are struggling as well. All three species are native to western Washington.

Zobrist isn’t the only one seeing this: KUOW’s listeners have been writing in to ask about why they’re seeing so many dead trees.

Zobrist thinks the answer lies in climate change.

“At this point in time, my top suspect is drought — drought stress from climate change,” he said. “We've seen records being set for heat and drought in a number of years in a row now, starting with 2012.”

“This summer was a little bit better,” he said. “But that cumulative drought stress is really taking its toll.”

Thirst can weaken trees’ immune systems, and then something else, like an insect or fungus, can kill them.

It's not just happening in places we can see it, like gardens, parks and roadways. It’s happening deep in the forest as well.

Glenn Kohler, a forest entomologist for the Washington Department of Natural Resources, visits a forest near Bellingham where he spotted dead trees during an annual forest health survey.
Enlarge Icon
Glenn Kohler, a forest entomologist for the Washington Department of Natural Resources, visits a forest near Bellingham where he spotted dead trees during an annual forest health survey.

Glenn Kohler, a forest entomologist for Washington’s Department of Natural Resources, and his colleagues fly over every forested acre of the state every year and measure how many trees have died.

“So the individual trees or a patch of dead trees are going to have the same kind of red color that's easy to see from an airplane,” Kohler said. “That's what we're mapping.”

“The amount of that is increasing right now,” he said.

In 2018, Kohler and his colleagues found that nearly 500,000 acres of Washington’s forests had some level of damage. That’s an area bigger than all of Kitsap County.

In short, western Washington’s forests are changing, Zobrist said. Some trees may be lost in places where they used to be able to survive.

“This is, I think, the first really visible impact of climate change in our area,” Zobrist said. “And it's kind of a warning of things to come.”

Jim and Judy Davis say, now that the initial shock of the dying hemlocks has worn off, they’ve come up with a plan. They’re going to take out some of the dead trees and limbs to reduce fire risk around their house, and they’ve started to plant new trees, choosing drought-tolerant native species.

Zobrist said other homeowners can do the same thing.

Also, he said, take a look around the tree, at what else might be competing for water.

“Grass is the worst,” he said. “I see lots of situations where there's a lawn or tall grass all the way up to the edge of the tree and that grass layer robs all the water, so get the grass out of there. Replace that with a good three to four inches of mulch.”

The Davises hope measures like these will help their forest survive for decades to come, for their kids and seven grandkids.

This story is part of Covering Climate Now, a global collaboration of more than 220 news outlets to strengthen coverage of the climate story.

Posted by: AGelbert
« on: September 18, 2019, 07:34:01 pm »

"Earth Warming More Quickly Thank Previously Thought" ( ::) What a Surprise)
575 views•Published on Sep 18, 2019

Collapse Chronicles
3.06K subscribers

In today's Chronicle of the Collapse, I read an article from titled "Earth Warming More Quickly Than Thought." Here is a link to the rest of the article:
If you would like to support Collapse Chronicles, there are several ways to do just that. You can hit the Paypal Donate icon on the homepage, or send a Paypal donation through

If you would like to become a Patron of Collapse Chronicles, here is a link to my Patreon page:

If you would like to send a check or money order to support this channel, you can email me at
Thank you!

Category News & Politics

Posted by: AGelbert
« on: September 18, 2019, 04:36:39 pm »


| Nine days left to raise $50,000. Can we do it? |


Noam Chomsky and Robert Pollin: If We Want a Future, Green New Deal Is Key
Yet, just at the time when all must act together, with dedication, to confront humanity’s “ultimate challenge,” the leaders of the most powerful state in human history, in full awareness of what they are doing, are dedicating themselves with passion to destroying the prospects for organized human life.

While the planetary future looks grim, there is a realistic global climate stabilization project that is economically and technically feasible -- if we can find the political will to implement it, say Noam Chomsky and Robert Pollin, co-authors of a forthcoming book on climate change and the Green New Deal. This month's climate strikes are a way to bring some urgency to the matter and raise public awareness.

Read the Interview →

Posted by: AGelbert
« on: September 17, 2019, 06:02:21 pm »

Posted by: AGelbert
« on: September 17, 2019, 01:15:10 pm »

Doomstead Diner's "RE": "I Cannot See How This Monetary System Can Survive More Than Ten Years"

Agelbert OBSERVATION: Surly, in this interview with Sam, RE tells the story of the Doomstead Diner, completely leaving my contributions to that forum and blog for nearly five years, out. :( Considering that I am the one who first brought the Collapse Chronicles dude videos to the attention of the Doomstead Diner, and considering that many views were generated there by my posts, it's rather disappointing. I remember when RE was ready to close up shop in the summer of 2013 from lack of visitors and new members and I helped cheer him up and keep going. I guess he forgot.

BUT, there is more. It seems that RE is unaware that you post here, because when he mentioned the Admins posting there, he specificially said that, though K-Dog posts additionally in his own blog, "Surly ONLY posts at the Doomstead Diner". It seems that RE has written me out of his history.

Most of the rest of the interview is devoted to RE's views on economics, always leaving Renewable Energy and ethics TOTALLY out of the picture, while harping on the "importance" of hydrocarbons. That is, the "lack" of hydrocarbons is what RE continues to, erroneously, IMHO, believe will cause the "collapse" (that never seems to come). I'm surprised he didn't launch into the old "high energy density" happy talk so favored by all hydrocarbon based energy WORSHIPPERS.

Although I am quite familiar with RE's arguments, listening to this interview I confirmed much about RE's world view that I had previously only suspected. I know RE is your friend, Surly, so I will not share with you what I think of RE's, "without oil, civilization will collapse and most of us are all gonna die" pitch, never mind his selective memory.

Of course RE is spot on about Trump. 👍

Finally, I will always be grateful to RE for setting up this forum and suggesting the "Renewable Revolution" name for it. 👍

That said, the interview cleared up any lingering doubts about the wisdom of my decision to stop posting at the Doomstead Diner.

The best way to court heartbreak is to expect gratitude from others. In his best days, RE has always been about himself, first, last, always, regardless of the pious pronouncements. And these are far from his best days. As his health deteriorates, his attitudes and awareness of others has as well. Don't sweat it. I run the DD Facebook page, which reaches more people in a week than the Diner forum , and he has no idea about that either.

Expect ingratitude, and you'll never be disappointed. Especially with him.

Agreed. What bothers me far more than my disappointment with RE's self centered selective memory is his irrational clinging to a theory about "collapse" based on a lack of availability of hydrocarbons. His fantasy about small tribes of humans survivng after "peak oil" causes a "collapse" has no scientific basis whatsoever.

The amount of hydrocarbons being produced for fuel worldwide is actually increasing, NOT "decreasing from peak oil".

On top of studiously ignoring that hydrocarbon hellspawn 'peddle to the metal' production reality, RE dismisses the 30 year lag time MASSIVE DEATH CAUSING INERTIA in Global Warming that puts us into the hothouse earth human species shitstorm as if that is a "survivable" situation. In the interview he admits the average global temperature may increase 10 degrees C but refuses to accept the FACT that anything above 2 degrees C is a funeral dirge for Homo sap. RE's pitch on the climate is that the Earth's biomass is "just too big" for GHG caused Catstrophic Climate Change to "threaten the human species with extinction".   

RE is worse than a climate change denier; he is a hydrocarbon fuels loving, Catastrophic Climate Change EXISTENTIAL THREAT DENIER.

IOW, RE is stuck in his, "peak oil will save us" pretzel logic ideology.

Catastrophic Climate Change Science FACTS pass over him like water off a duck. I pity anyone that is convinced by his dangerously flawed arguments. He is actually dooming people that are convinced by his pitch, not "saving" them.

But then, what can one expect from somebody who has publicly stated he is a great friend of 🦕 Gail Tverberg, the "energy expert" who is a card carrying member (see: "this finite world" hydrocarbon "scarcity" means the price has gotta go UP! 😈) of the 🦖 hydrocarbon hellspawn "industry"?

RE's claim in the interview that world shipping is showing signs of "collapse" evidences his delusional stance about the "coming collapse". Sam pointed out some facts about world shipping activity and RE responded with his famous "I'll cut up anybody's argument claiming world shipping is thriving like a thanksgiving turkey".

Apparantly RE, in his confirmation bias zeal to see only what he wants to see, never visits the World Marine Traffic website.

None so blind as those who refuse to see.
Posted by: AGelbert
« on: September 16, 2019, 03:43:30 pm »


By Olivia RosaneSep. 16, 2019 06:37AM EST

Posted by: AGelbert
« on: September 14, 2019, 10:01:38 pm »

BLACK BEAR NEWS 9.14.19 Extinction or Extermination?
287 views•Published on Sep 14, 2019

Black Bear News
2.4K subscribers

Rio de Janeiro Records its Highest Ever Winter Temperature

Drone strikes knock out half of Saudi oil capacity, 5 million barrels a day

This Is Not the Sixth Extinction. It’s the First Extermination Event.

Twitter @BlackBearNews1

Support via Paypal:

Support via Square:$RedLlamaMusic
Posted by: AGelbert
« on: September 13, 2019, 04:31:44 pm »


By Chris Mooney and John Muyskens | Photos and videos by Carolyn Van Houten

SEPT. 11, 2019

Posted by: AGelbert
« on: September 12, 2019, 10:07:22 pm »

How Greenland's massive ice melt will totally transform the world
55,476 views•Published on Sep 11, 2019

Channel 4 News
840K subscribers
Remember that heatwave back in August? Well, the Arctic remembers it too. Record rates of ice melt have been recorded on the great ice-shelf of Greenland. It's critical for all of us because of its potential effect on global sea levels. In the first of a series of special reports from Greenland, we examine the threat to the giant glaciers and to those whose lives depend upon the sea ice.

Follow us on Instagram -
News & Politics
Posted by: AGelbert
« on: September 12, 2019, 05:04:27 pm »

Climate Lab Book
Open Climate Science

September 12, 2019 By Ed Hawkins

Atmospheric temperature trends

The lower atmosphere is warming 🚩 while the upper atmosphere is cooling – a clear fingerprint of the enhanced greenhouse effect from human emissions of carbon dioxide.

The simple explanation is that some of the infrared radiation emitted by the surface, which would have normally reached the upper atmosphere, is absorbed by greenhouse gases in the lower atmosphere. The upper atmosphere therefore receives less energy than before, and so cools. The very warm years (intense reds) in the upper atmosphere are the 1982-83 El Chichón and 1991-92 Pinatubo eruptions respectively.

Changes in global atmospheric temperature at different levels in the atmosphere from 1979 to 2018: surface, TLT, TTT, TMT, TLS. Data from Cowtan & Way, and RSSv4. The colour scale goes from -0.75K to +0.75K, relative to the average of 1981-2010 for each layer separately.

Posted by: AGelbert
« on: September 10, 2019, 09:53:52 pm »

BLACK BEAR NEWS 9.9.19 Non reporting of casualties in Bahamas - New Yorker article

Black Bear News
Published on Sep 9, 2019

#HurricaneDorianCasualties #NewYorker #ClimateChange

Hurricane Dorian survivors take stock as death toll rises in the Bahamas

What If We Stopped Pretending?

Twitter @BlackBearNews1

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Red Llama Music
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So Pasadena, CA 91031
Category People & Blogs

Posted by: AGelbert
« on: September 09, 2019, 04:29:43 pm »

Agelbert NOTE: I am reposting ths article due to the fact that the graphics in the original have been so thoroughly hacked by the 🦖 Hydrocarbon Hellspawn, that anyone trying to read it would be discouraged from the missing graphics. I laboriously recovered the graphics, so the first part is, once again ;D, legible and instructive for those who care about the future of our biosphere and want to know where, EXACTLY, to assign the blame for the continued profit over people and planet multiple extinctions causing rampant degradation. Remember, somebody (i.e. 🦕😈🦖) out there hacked the crude oil tanker picture, the RCP scenario graphics, the scientists 2 degree C rise danger warning pictures and ALL the ECM graphics because they did not want YOU to know the Global Warming facts. All the graphics unrelated to climate change and hydrocarbon fuels were not hacked. The hacking is VERY targeted. For that reason alone, I encourage you to read it and pass it on.

Climate Change, Blue Water Cargo Shipping and Predicted Ocean Wave Activity


In this three part article I explain what the scientific community defines as the "Business as Usual" scenario in regard to atmospheric pollutants fueling Global Warming. A brief review of the existential threat to marine life that this scenario represents will follow.

Subsequently, I discuss global shipping. I provide a summary of the tremendous importance of blue water (deep ocean) cargo shipping to global civilization. You will be surprised at how vital to global civilization blue water cargo shipping is. All the military vessels, all the pleasure yachts and even all the fishing fleets are insignificant in tonnage compared to that of ocean going cargo and tanker vessels.

I then leave the subject of shipping and the types of cargo vessels, which I return to at the end, to provide the reader with a graphic climate history of the Northern Hemisphere, from the last Glacial Maximum to the present, followed by the, scientifically based, predicted sea level and land vegetation changes in the "Business as Usual" scenario within the next 85 years.

The discussion then returns to cargo ships and their behavior in rough seas. I provide graphics to explain what has been learned about ocean waves in the last 40 years that shocked the scientific community and caused them to go back to the drawing board on the science and math formulas of hydrodynamics in regard to maximum wave heights. Some tragic cargo vessel losses from "rogue" waves (that turned out not to be as "rogue" as science had thought) are presented as evidence that the oceans are becoming increasingly dangerous to shipping.

Finally, the Hansen et al paper, published in June of 2015, is referenced as evidence of a coming abrupt sea state change that will make modern blue water surface cargo shipping either too costly or impossible. The reason for this will be explained in detail with graphics showing ocean wave action and modern shipping design limitations.

Included in the last section that ties all the others together is a reference to another scientific paper published in July of this year (2015) that provides evidence that the worst case scenario ("Business as Usual") modeled by the scientific community severely understates the amount of sea level rise in the next 85 years.

I conclude with recommendations on what the governments of the industrialized countries of the world need to do within the next decade in order to prevent a collapse of civilization (or worse) within the next 25 years.

Let us begin with these nuggets of climate science from NASA:

Carbon Dioxide Controls Earth's Temperature

Water vapor and clouds are the major contributors to Earth's greenhouse effect, but a new atmosphere-ocean climate modeling study shows that the planet's temperature ultimately depends on the atmospheric level of carbon dioxide.

Without non-condensing greenhouse gases, water vapor and clouds would be unable to provide the feedback mechanisms that amplify the greenhouse effect.

The study ties in to the geologic record in which carbon dioxide levels have oscillated between approximately 180 parts per million during ice ages, and about 280 parts per million during warmer interglacial periods. To provide perspective to the nearly 1 C (1.8 F) increase in global temperature over the past century, it is estimated that the global mean temperature difference between the extremes of the ice age and interglacial periods is only about 5 C (9 F).

"When carbon dioxide increases, more water vapor returns to the atmosphere. This is what helped to melt the glaciers that once covered New York City," said co-author David Rind, of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies. "Today we are in uncharted territory as carbon dioxide approaches 390 parts per million in what has been referred to as the 'superinterglacial'."

"The bottom line is that atmospheric carbon dioxide acts as a thermostat in regulating the temperature of Earth," Lacis said.
"The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has fully documented the fact that industrial activity is responsible for the rapidly increasing levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.

It is not surprising then that global warming can be linked directly to the observed increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide and to human industrial activity in general

So, if you read some happy talk from the fossil fuel industry that it's the "water vapor" that is causing global warming, be sure and reference the above study (and the companion study also mentioned at the link) just before you call them on their ignorance, or worse, their duplicity.

You just read about the huge difference a mere 5 degrees C (Centigrade) can make.
Here's a graphic to give you an idea about how effective our greenhouse gas (GHG) shell is at keeping us from turning into a ball of ice.

Greenhouse gases are vital to regulating Earth's temperature. But there is a goldilocks band of these gases that must be adhered to in order to provide a viable biosphere.

In addition, GHG changes in concentration within that band must proceed, down or up, at or slower than a certain rate in order to allow the organisms that live in that biosphere to adapt to the changes or they will go extinct.

Industrial civilization has BOTH exceeded the upper margin of the GHG band by a huge margin AND has done it at a rate far above the ability of most complex non-microscopic organisms to adapt to these violent changes. Mammalian vertebrates, among the complex organisms on Earth, are the least able to adapt to rapid GHG concentration changes.

There is no precedent in the geological record for the increase in CO2 caused by the burning of fossil fuels over the last century. And the rate those fossil fuels are being burned is increasing, not slowing down or ceasing.

Non-self aware mammalian vertebrates, unlike us, cannot use technology to adapt. This is the part the CEO of ExxonMobil (Rex Tillerson) forgot accidentally on purpose when he said, "We will adapt to that". Mr. Tillerson is an idiot or a liar (possibly both). Those "qualities" seem to be a job requirement for those that work in the fossil fuel industry.

Mr. Tillerson's optimistic happy talk is not based on climate science or the geological record.

"Mass extinctions due to rapidly escalating levels of CO2 are recorded since as long as 580 million years ago."

Whether we humans want to admit it or not, we need the 75% of all of Earth's species in danger of extinction from climate change. I know it is really hard for the fossil fuel industry predators 'R' US crowd to wrap their greedy heads around this, but it's hard to live on a diet of hydrocarbons. And if we don't stop burning them, both our plant and animal food supply, along with thousands of other species of other earthlings that make this planet viable, will go extinct.

This is not hyperbole. Mass extinctions are part of the geological record. In all but one of those mass extinctions, the rapid rise in GHG was the cause of the extinctions. Furthermore, in all the former mass extinctions, the RATE of rise in GHG was much slower than today.

"As our anthropogenic global emissions of CO2 are rising  at a rate for which no precedence is known from the geological record with the exception of asteroid impacts, another wave of extinctions is unfolding."

According to the latest scientific studies on Global Warming, "Business as Usual", touted as the basis for the continued health of global civilization, is actually the greatest threat to global civilization and our species that we have ever faced.

Before we get to what exactly is meant by, "Business as Usual", let us first review the human caused pollution effects on ocean physical chemistry and temperature and marine species biochemistry.

The following review references an analysis of oceans that totally omits a growing problem for worldwide shipping. Although the review is mostly very bad news, it may turn out to be, in terms of what deals the collapse triggering blow to human civilization as we know it, the "good" news.

The World Ocean Review

The ocean may be buffering the most severe consequences of climate change for now. But in the long run we can only hope to avoid these if we strictly curb GHG emissions today.

Experts are concerned that hundreds of thousands of tonnes of methane hydrate could break down due to the warming of seawater – gas masses that are lying inertly in solid, frozen form in the sea floor sediments today. A portion of the methane, which is a powerful greenhouse gas, could then rise into the atmosphere and further accelerate the process of climate change – a vicious circle.

The oceans absorb many millions of tonnes of carbon dioxide annually. They are the largest “sink” for anthropogenic CO2 emissions. The excess carbon dioxide, however, upsets the chemical equilibrium of the ocean. It leads to acidification of the oceans, the consequences of which are unpredictable. Acidic water disrupts the sense of smell in fish larvae, carbonate formation by snails, and the growth rates of starfish. The phytoplankton, tiny algae in the ocean and vital nutrient basis for higher organisms, are also affected by acidification.

The coastal environment is still being damaged by effluent and toxic discharges, and especially by nutrients conveyed to the ocean by rivers. Thousands of tonnes of nitrogen and phosphorus compounds flow into the ocean around the world, causing an explosion in algal reproduction. In many coastal regions the catastrophe begins with the death of the algae. Bacteria feed on the algal remains and consume oxygen in the water. In these oxygen-depleted zones all higher life forms die off. Efforts to reduce nutrient levels have been successful in Western Europe.

Worldwide, however, the input of nutrients is becoming increasingly problematical. People are, without a doubt, abusing the oceans in many respects, and this is increasing the stress on marine organisms. Through over-fertilization and acidification of the water, rapid changes in water temperature or salinity, biological diversity in the ocean could drop worldwide at increasing rates. With the combination of all these factors, the disruption of habitats is so severe that species will continue to disappear.

Clearly the oceans continue to be the “last stop” for the dregs of our civilization, not only for the persistent chemicals, but also our everyday garbage. Six million tonnes of rubbish end up in the ocean worldwide every year. The trash is a fatal trap for dolphins, turtles and birds. Plastic is especially long-lived and, driven by ocean currents, it collects in the central oceans in gyres of garbage covering hundreds of square kilometres. A new problem has been identified in the microscopically small breakdown products of plastics, which are concentrated in the bodies of marine organisms.

That World Ocean Review I just quoted from, after laying out the hard facts, incredibly goes on to happily discuss ocean mining opportunities and methane hydrate harvesting plans for "energy products" for "energy independence". The only caveat they supply is more of an epitaph for human willful denial of facts than a precautionary warning. Please file the following in the WTF!? category.

Energy from burning ice

In addition to abundant minerals, there are large amounts of methane hydrate beneath the sea floor. Some countries hope to become independent of energy imports by exploiting marine gas hydrate deposits near their own coasts. The technology for production, however, is not yet available. Furthermore, the risks to climate stability and hazards to marine habitats associated with extraction of the methane hydrates must first be clarified.

Yes, it seems the DANGER of extracting methane hydrates has not been "CLARIFIED" enough. Neither the Permian Extinction geological record nor the PETM (Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum) geological record has "clarified" the methane issue enough.

Hello? Is this, a more recent pre-human epoch, CLARIFICATION enough for you fellows providing your business friendly "World Ocean Review ", claiming, among other wonders of optimistic prose, that the sea level is only going to rise about 180 cm by century's end?

The following alarming, but still too conservative, MIT study EXCLUDES the ABRUPT climate change positive feedback loop effects we are now beginning to experience.

Do they think this MIT study needs "clarification"?

And the DANGER of an acidified ocean to most marine species, which will clearly be exacerbated by the methane bomb, has not been clarified? Didn't Professor Gerardo Ceballos, lead author of a study published in June of 2015 on the Sixth Mass Extinction we are now entering, with particular emphasis on marine mammal extinction threats, get the word?

I think he and his fellow scientists CLARIFIED the methane issue AND the CO2 pollution issue rather well. For those that do not get it, the CO2 pollution, now baked in, is already threatening marine mammals with extinction. When methane hydrates are added to the mix from a warmed ocean, acidification will accelerate and trigger anoxic conditions throughout the ocean water column, thereby destroying the food chain. That is a death sentence for most non-microscopic marine life and a large portion of the microscopic oxygen producing microscopic phytoplankton as well.

These scientifically challenged, insultingly naive, business friendly, bland statements sold as "sober advice" are precisely the kind of double talk that has placed humanity in the polluted situation it finds itself.

Some have blamed the scientific community.

They forget that scientists are mostly employees. They forget that businesses gag their reports or keep their published, peer reviewed papers from the public on a regular basis. So the criminally negligent here are business leaders, not scientists.

My experience with reading these big picture reviews of our terribly polluted situation is that they seem to feel obligated to give some peppy, optimistic, happy talk at the end.

Do these people understand what "business as usual" means? It appears that either they don't or willfully avoid doing so.

The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) has a scientific name for Business as Usual. They have modeled it. They have a number for it. It's called the RCP-8.5. RCP stands for Representative Concentration Pathway.

Business as usual is a death sentence for over 75% (or more) of life on Earth.

The people that defend business as usual are deluded. There is evidence, which I will present, that even the RCP-8.5 scenario is too conservative. And yet the methane issue needs "clarification"?

Dr. Scott Goetz (Deputy Director and Senior Scientist of the Woods Hole Research Center) has that thousand yard stare for a reason.


Friends, there is a crime being committed. But the guiltiest parties do not want to pay for their share of the damage. And that is why these reviews lack the urgency that they need to have in order to successfully convince government policy makers to alter our destructive trajectory.

But I have discussed that in my recent article, Dianoia is sine qua non to a viable biosphere.  So, I will move on to other matters of concern to humanity.

Global shipping

Human civilization has come to rely on the relatively inexpensive movement of millions of tons of cargo over the oceans.

It is difficult or impossible to avoid a collapse without the use of the oceans.

To underline the importance of cargo shipping as the lifeblood of civilization, you need to look at the massive amount of tonnage these ships move globally on a daily basis.

Tankers, bulk carriers and container ships are the most important means of transportation of our time. Each year they carry billions of tonnes of goods along a few principal trade routes. Containerization has revolutionized global cargo shipping, bringing vast improvements in efficiency.

Throughout history the oceans have been important to people around the world as a means of transportation. Unlike a few decades ago, however, ships are now carrying goods rather than people.

Deadweight tonnage (abbreviated to dwt) or tons deadweight (TDW) is a measure of how much mass a ship is carrying or can safely carry; it does not include the weight of the ship.

Agelbert NOTE: Please take note of the caveat, "safely carry".  More on what that means later.

In terms of carrying capacity in dwt,

tankers account for 35 per cent,

bulk carriers account for 35 per cent,

container ships 14 per cent,

general cargo ships 9 per cent

and passenger liners less than 1 per cent.

In all, the global merchant fleet has a capacity of just under 1192 million dwt.

Shipping Activity of Tankers, Cargo and Cruise Ships on October 12, 2015:

The growth of the global merchant fleet according to type of vessel (as at 1 January [sic]) 2009.

There is a LOT of shipping out there and a LOT of ships. If the above graphics have not brought home to you how much shipping is going on 24 hours a day, 365 days a year, take a look at this:

In summary, this is what is out there going hither and yon across the oceans on a regular basis:
Singapore anchorage

Most of those affordable products in our homes are a direct result of a the uninterrupted global lifeblood of efficient blue ocean shipping. If that shipping was no longer possible, global civilization would be impossible because it would be unaffordable. It is, therefore, extremely important to ensure that human civilization can use those oceans for routine cargo transportation. 

The oceans, as was pointed out earlier in this article, are a giant heat sink. The more CO2 we pump into the air, the hotter the oceans get. When the oceans get hotter, they become more active. This means trouble for shipping.

Insurance companies do not like that. They analyze the risks of blue water shipping and track any trends that might increase those risks. They have actuaries that pay a lot of attention to losses of insured ships.

All commercial shipping is insured. You and I are billed for insuring, not just the merchant fleets, but the military ships too! That's what the "defense budgets" lobbied for by all those welfare queen corporations, constantly whining about that "dangerous world out there", are all about.

Well, it looks like all shipping is going to find out how DANGEROUS the oceans, not some invented threat about bellicose humans, can be. The insurance actuaries already know that the "terrorist" or piracy threat on the high seas is insignificant compared to the threat of sinking from rough seas.

Of course you haven't read that in the papers. But you will read it here. And I will provide evidence for it.

But I'm getting ahead of myself. To understand what is happening in the oceans today, we need to go back in time about 20,000 years. We need to go back to the Last Glacial Maximum.

WHY? Because the sea state, as well as the sea level, is a function of the average global temperature. In addition, the vegetation changes that accompany changes in the average global temperature can have deleterious effects on the sea state, totally separate from the dire extinction threat these temperature changes represent to marine organisms.

The Environmental Change Model (ECM)

The following series of graphics deals with accurately modeled representations of the climate in a large part of the Northern Hemisphere centered on the Arctic. A link to the science and the source is provided. The average global temperature and pertinent data on the ice cover and types of vegetation is provided. Of particular importance to the reader are the different types of Tundra coverage. The legend has color codes for the graphical representations.

NOTE: The Greek letter "DELTA" ="Δ". It is used in science to mean, "Change in". The referenced average global temperature is what we have today (about 15 degrees Centigrade = T).

So, ΔT = - 6C is a change in average temperature of minus 6 degrees centigrade from today. THAT was when there was a two mile high glacier sheet edge near what is now New York City. That was also when the oceans were 120 meters = 394 feet lower than they are today.

Notice how much dry and moist Tundra there was.
Notice the range and size of the types of forests and the polar desert coverage too. At a glance you can see that this was a very dry world in comparison to our world.

Fast forward to ΔT = - 0.5C.
This was the Little Ice Age of 1850. That was just before the industrial pollution revolution had gotten up to full biosphere trashing speed.

Sea level is close to the present level. Notice how the forest cover has changed. Notice how the Tundra moved north as the ice retreated. Notice how the forests and the forest Tundra transition changed.

Tundra responds in one of two ways when it goes above freezing. It has to do with the available oxygen. If there isn't enough in the soil, the microbes resort to anaerobic metabolism and make lots of methane. This is NOT methane locked in the Tundra. This is NEW methane. This is unrelated to the methane hydrates frozen on the ocean bottom, but it is still an additional feedback mechanism that increases the RATE of atmospheric heating. So these mechanisms are, by definition, not linear. They can become self reinforcing. That means they can go exponential.

Below, please find, the world we all grew up in (ΔT = 0C.). I have labeled some areas for clarity. The Tundra continues to shrink, as does the ice coverage. The forest transition area creeps north and the forests grow along with the prairie grass covered areas. There is less ice.

Which brings us the IPCC RCP-8.5 scenario labeled "Business as Usual".

This scenario is considered "worst case". It does not expect us to hit  ΔT = plus 2C until 2050. The boundless optimism of the IPCC sounds a lot like those fellows doing the "World Ocean Review" that mentioned the methane "issue" needed "clarification" right after they admitted that the PRESENT conditions were causing the extinction of most marine animals. 

Please look at this graph:

The line with the number "1" is the  IPCC RCP-8.5 scenario. The temperature increases in lines 2 and 3 ARE NOT in the IPCC RCP-8.5 scenario.

ΔT = plus 2C is considered extremely dangerous.

The IPCC projects a mere 0.5 meters sea level increase by 2050. But the July 2015 study that I reference in the graphic claims a sea level rise greater or equal to 6 meters (over 19 feet!) is evidenced in the geologic record for this type of temperature rise.

The IPCC projected sea ice decline to 2010 will give you more context to understand why it is unrealistic to believe that we will not hit the  ΔT = plus 2C until 2050.

But nevertheless, the IPCC RCP-8.5 scenario for ΔT = plus 2C is instructive because the Tundra is disappearing. You know what that means for increased methane release, don't you?

A note about the word, "Equilibrium" on the graphic: The word "Equilibrium" means that the full effects of the temperature change are being felt throughout the planet. Glaciologists had previously thought that "equilibrium" effects on ice sheets took centuries or millennia.

Now, because of empirical observations on the Greenland ice sheet, Antarctica and various glaciers in the world, they have come to accept that equilibrium is reached in decades or in years, depending on the temperature anomaly increase. As you know, or should know, the polar regions have warmed over 3C MORE than the rest of the planet in the last 50 years. 

The huge differential was not plugged in to the IPCC models so they are too conservative on ice retreat and sea level rise. So, if somebody tells you that all this is a long way off, they are uninformed or working for the fossil fuel industry.

I will return to the dangers of the ΔT = plus 2C (and beyond) world in a moment.

For now, I wish to show you the rest of the IPCC RCP-8.5 scenario projections. Please remember that they are conservative projections and the effects portrayed will most likely arrive 25 years or more earlier than predicted. Also please remember that the actual sea level increase (see graphic below),

Science 10 July 2015: Vol. 349 no. 6244 DOI: 10.1126/science.aaa4019
Sea-level rise due to polar ice-sheet mass loss during past warm periods

according to the July 2015 paper referenced previously, will be several METERS, not feet, above the predictions.

ΔT = plus 3C

Sometime after the loss of the ice cap, all the Tundra will have thawed. ALL the trapped gases, be they CO2 or CH4, will be released. Added grasses absorbing CO2 will not be enough to counteract the warming acceleration.

There are those who expect a negative feedback from the stopping of the thermohaline oceanic current circulation (stopped by all the cold fresh water melted off the Greenland ice cap into the oceans). Perhaps that will help slow the heating (north of about 45 degrees latitude - below that they will roast even more!) for a decade or so. But it will do nothing to calm the ocean surface.

ΔT = plus 4C

The worst effect is that Arctic ocean bottom frozen clathrates will thaw and the methane will be released. The planet will continue warming increasingly faster past  ΔT = plus 4C.

 That will exacerbate ocean conditions 🌊even more. With more and more heat energy present, the ocean surface will get increasingly more turbulent. And we will already be well past the ΔT = plus 2C mark.

As evidenced by the two referenced scientific studies, both published recently this year (2015), and the woefully conservative IPCC predictions on the rate of the North Polar Ice Cap retreat, Antarctic and Greenland ice cap melt rates, and temperature rise rate, sea level will most likely rise a minimum of 6 meters within 10 years, not 35 years. We are talking about 2025, not 2050, for a ΔT = plus 2C world. We are not preparing adequately for that.

For those who will point to the increase in size of the floating ice around Antarctica as evidence that the Earth is not really warming, I beg to differ.

The fact that the Antarctic land mass IS losing ice has been measured with satellites. It is losing ice because of global warming. It is true that the floating ice around Antarctica has increased and will continue to increase as long as the Antarctic land mass is shedding melt water.

This is because of two factors. The first one is that there are very high winds around Antarctica, unimpeded by any land mass. The second factor is that fresh water freezes more rapidly on the ocean surface than salty water.

That's why salt is spread on roads in winter. On the ocean, the water molecules must rid themselves of the sodium and chloride ions dissolved in them before they can freeze. All the ice floating on the oceans is water ice. It has no salt in it.

And as long as that floating ice is the product of melt water from the Antarctic land mass, it will ADD to sea level.

And when the sea level goes up just 6 feet, never mind the 19 feet or more increase expected with CURRENT CO2 levels, all shipping port facilities (and most coastal airport facilities too!) in the world are no longer usable without gargantuan and heroic efforts requiring trillions of dollars in costs for every foot the land and port infrastructure must be raised.

It seems that the countries (see every industrialized country on the planet) dragging their feet on CO2 reduction actions do not understand this. There are, as of this writing, over 140 countries investing trillions of dollars in port facilities.

No, they aren't raising the level of the port facilities to prepare for rapidly rising sea levels. They are trying to cash in on container shipping by building more container shipping infrastructure.  

Don't these governments listen to their climate scientists?

End of PART ONE.

Climate Change, Blue Water Cargo Shipping and Predicted Ocean Wave Activity: PART TWO

Thank you for reading this article. Have a nice day.
Posted by: AGelbert
« on: September 09, 2019, 02:29:26 pm »

Four Missing as Car Carrier Capsizes at Port of Brunswick, Georgia
September 8, 2019 by Mike Schuler

Golden Bay capsized at port of brunswick - U.S. Coast Guard Photo

Update (Monday, Sept. 9, 2019): Contact Made with Missing Crew Members -Breaking

(Sunday, Sept. 8, 2019): The U.S. Coast Guard and multiple agencies are responding after car carrier became disabled and capsized with a fire on board Sunday morning in St. Simons Sound, Brunswick, Georgia.

A search is underway for four missing people.

The U.S. Coast Guard said it was notified at approximately 2 a.m. on Sunday that the 656-foot vehicle carrier Golden Ray was disabled and listing heavily with a fire on board in the St. Simons Sound. The ship had a total of 24 people on board, including 23 crew members and 1 pilot.

U.S. Coast Guard Photo

The Coast Guard reported on Twitter that it and other agencies had multiple rescue assets on scene and were in process of evacuating crew members from the vessel.

Currently, 20 people have been safely removed and four people remain unaccounted for.

#Update Evacuations of the Golden Ray’s crew continue. All vessel traffic in the Port of Brunswick is currently suspended unless approved by the @USCG Captain of the Port. #HappeningNow
— USCGSoutheast (@USCGSoutheast) September 8, 2019

The vessel’s master and chief engineer are assisting authorities and salvage teams to develop plans to stabilize the vessel and continue rescue efforts, the Coast Guard reported.

Coast Guard units involved in the response include:

Two Coast Guard Station Brunswick Response Boat crews
Two Coast Guard Air Station Savannah MH-65 Dolphin helicopter crews
Coast Guard Cutter Heron launched to assist
Coast Guard Sector Charleston
Marine Safety Unit Savannah
Coast Guard Salvage Engineering Response Team (SERT) launched to assist

The Port of Brunswick Captain of the Port (COTP) has established an emergency safety zone in St. Simons Sound. Vessels are not authorized within .5 miles of the overturned ship.

The Port of Brunswick is the second busiest roll-on/roll-off port in the United States and the number one for new auto imports. Port of Brunswick is comprised of three deepwater terminals owned by Georgia Ports Authority, including two directly operated by the GPA.

AIS ship tracking data shows the Marshall Islands-flagged Golden Ray was outbound from the port when it became disabled. The ship has a destination of Baltimore.

The cause of the incident is under investigation.

Also assisting in the response are the Georgia Department of Natural Resources, Moran Towing, SeaTow, Brunswick Bar Pilots Association, and the Glynn County Fire Department.

Agelbert NOTE: Global warming is bringing rougher seas. It will get worse.

Climate Change, Blue Water Cargo Shipping and Predicted Ocean Wave Activity: PART 1 of 3
Posted by: AGelbert
« on: September 09, 2019, 02:12:07 pm »

Conditions ‘Rapidly Deteriorating’ in Bahamas After Dorian -Aid Group 😟

By Reuters on Sep 07, 2019 07:31 pm

A soldier leads people onto a plane during an evacuation operation after Hurricane Dorian hit the Abaco Islands in Treasure Cay, Bahamas, September 7, 2019. REUTERS/Marco Bello

By Nick Brown and Zachary Fagenson NASSAU, Bahamas, Sept 7 (Reuters) – Thousands of displaced people are living in “rapidly deteriorating” conditions in the worst-hit parts of the Bahamas six days after Hurricane Dorian made landfall, the United Nations World Food Programme warned on Saturday. The warning came as aid groups rushed emergency help to […]  Read full story...
Posted by: AGelbert
« on: September 06, 2019, 10:19:13 pm »

There is FRAUD in the  reporting on the Arctic sea

Published on Aug 30, 2019

This is a case of data being used to HIDE reality rather than shine a light on it.

Whereas the world media has had quite a lot to say about the record melting in Greenland there has been silence about the disastrous melt of the Arctic sea ice.

As in previous years, after a fierce melting during July once again we are seeing a reversal of the trend in August.

Or according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center in any case.


The Arctic melt has slowed down – REALLY?

National Snow and Ice Data Center

NASA Worldview

Category Science & Technology
Posted by: AGelbert
« on: September 06, 2019, 06:25:56 pm »

September 5, 2019

Earther: What do you hope voters took away from the town hall?

Larkin: The old frameworks for what is reasonable, they don’t apply anymore. That’s due to the scientific reality of climate change. Moderate, incremental policy is incompatible with a livable planet in the future. But also because the neoliberal project has been so delegitimized, people are looking for an alternative to that. And their eyes are going to find it in a sea of white nationalism and retrenching fascism or they’re going to find it in a vision of a better world, a more just world where everyone takes care of each other. So we should all organize and fight for that better world.

read more:

Posted by: AGelbert
« on: September 06, 2019, 05:52:39 pm »

Posted by: AGelbert
« on: September 06, 2019, 05:48:04 pm »

Caller Debates 🐒🙉🙊 Religious Right

Thom Hartmann Program
Published on Sep 5, 2019
Posted by: AGelbert
« on: September 06, 2019, 04:41:50 pm »


Friday, September 6, 2019

Business as usual is what's doing us in.

We live on a planet that finds itself rather suddenly in the midst of an enormous physical crisis. Because we burn so much coal and gas and oil, the atmosphere of our world is changing rapidly, and that atmospheric change is producing record heat. July was the hottest month we've ever recorded. Scientists predict with confidence that we stand on the edge of the sixth great extinction event of the last billion years. People are dying in large numbers and being left homeless; millions are already on the move because they have no choice.

That's why it's such good news that the climate movement has a new tactic. Pioneered last August by Greta Thunberg of Sweden, it involves disrupting business as usual. It began, of course, in schools: Within months, millions of young people around the world were striking for days at a time from their classes. Their logic was impeccable: If the institutions of our planet can't be bothered to prepare for a world we can live in, why must we spend years preparing ourselves? If you break the social contract, why are we bound by it?

Posted by: AGelbert
« on: September 06, 2019, 04:03:42 pm »

Total insured and uninsured losses in the Bahamas amounted to $7 billion, including buildings and business interruptions, according to a preliminary estimate by Karen Clark & Co, a consultancy that provides catastrophic modeling and risk management services.

International Effort to Aid Bahamas Underway in Dorian’s Wake

By Reuters on Sep 05, 2019 12:20 pm

By Nick Brown NASSAU, Bahamas, Sept 5 (Reuters) – An international relief effort to bring humanitarian aid to stunned residents of the Bahamas gathered pace on Thursday as Hurricane Dorian churned northward off the coast of South Carolina, threatening storm surges and flooding. Aerial video of the worst-hit Abaco Islands in the northern Bahamas showed widespread […] 

Read full story...

Posted by: AGelbert
« on: September 05, 2019, 08:24:20 pm »

And then there was 🦕 Biden. Picture in your mind a plane crash on top of a train wreck in the middle of an earthquake after an attack by Godzilla, and you’ll still fall short of fully encompassing what the former vice president did to himself on Wednesday night.

BY William Rivers Pitt, Truthout

PUBLISHED September 5, 2019

For the first time, the climate crisis was discussed in detail by presidential candidates on live television. During CNN's seven-hour climate town hall, Elizabeth Warren and Cory Booker's handle on policy details, along with their enthusiasm in imparting them, set them apart from the crowd. But this was Bernie Sanders's home turf, and it showed. Joe Biden, by contrast, had perhaps the worst night of his campaign.
Read the Article →

Posted by: AGelbert
« on: September 05, 2019, 12:18:42 pm »

Hurricane Dorian Ravages the Bahamas

September 4, 2019

The climate crisis has increased the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events like Hurricane Dorian. Storms like this one are why we must raise our political expectations, says Greenpeace's Jack Shapiro
Posted by: AGelbert
« on: September 04, 2019, 09:32:47 pm »

Bahamian Environmental Advocate Calls for Global Climate Action

September 4, 2019

Hurricane Dorian has destroyed entire communities in Abaco and Grand Bahama. ReEarth's Sam Duncombe says if the US—and Bahamian—governments don't take climate action, storms will get even deadlier

Posted by: AGelbert
« on: September 04, 2019, 04:12:40 am »

CNN Is Giving 2020 Democrats 7 Hours To Talk About Climate Change 👍👍👍

Last edited Wed Sep 4, 2019

Source: Vox

The 🦕🙊 DNC voted down holding an official presidential climate debate. TV networks have stepped up. 👍

CNN will host a seven-hour marathon of interviews with 10 presidential candidates about climate change on Wednesday beginning at 5 pm Eastern as part of its climate crisis town hall. A live stream of the town hall will air on You can also stream it via CNN apps on iOS, Android, Apple TV, Roku, Amazon Fire, Chromecast, and Android TV. The forum will also be broadcast on SiriusXM Channels 116, 454, 795, and the Westwood One Radio Network.

Here is the format:
•Former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro will be interviewed by CNN’s Wolf Blitzer at 5 pm ET
•Entrepreneur Andrew Yang will be interviewed by Blitzer at 5:40 pm
•California Sen. Kamala Harris will be interviewed by Erin Burnett at 6:20 pm
•Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar will be interviewed by Burnett at 7 pm
•Former Vice President Joe Biden will be interviewed by Anderson Cooper at 8 pm
•Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders will interviewed by Cooper at 8:40 pm
•Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren will be interviewed by Chris Cuomo at 9:20 pm
•South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg will be interviewed by Cuomo at 10 pm
•Former Rep. Beto O’Rourke will be interviewed Don Lemon at 10:40 pm
•New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker will be interviewed by Lemon at 11:20 pm

The audience will be composed of selected Democrats, independents, and stakeholders. No public tickets will be issued.

That a major television network would devote so much time to a single issue is a sign of how important climate change has become for Democrats and how successful activists have been in elevating the issue.

Climate change has rocketed up the list of concerns for primary voters, with some polls showing climate change as the number one issue and other indicating that strong majorities want robust climate action from the White House. Activists groups like the Sunrise Movement have refused to let the Democratic National Committee ignore the issue, holding sit-ins outside their headquarters to demand a climate debate. - MORE...

Read more:
Posted by: AGelbert
« on: September 03, 2019, 04:52:12 pm »

September 3, 2019

Alaska's Sea Ice Completely Melted for First Time in Recorded History


During one of the hottest Julys on record, all of the sea ice within 150 miles of Alaska's shore melted for the first time in recorded histroy. In Iceland, the Okjökull glacier, which once covered 16 square kilometers, is no more, and in Greenland, the ice sheet lost an unprecedented 12.5 billion tons of water in a single day in August. As the planet melts before our eyes, we are witnessing the death of a world we have known and the beginning of another that portends drought, wildfires, famine, disease and war.

Read the Article →
Posted by: AGelbert
« on: September 03, 2019, 03:55:49 pm »

This screenshot is quite good. We have known everything we needed to know for some years, and have just not cared. Somewhere in my reading today I came across the assertion that in order to make a difference, people in the developed world will have to live on one sixth of their current income/standard of living.

If you listen carefully, you can hear the collective "fat chance" from the wealthy, and
"You first" from the rest of us.

True that about the sentient termites (i.e. the ethically bankrupt = wealthy).

Please do not include me in the rest of us. I have publicly advocated for living with the power cut off from my house for 12 hours a day (not "you first", but all of us, including businesses, at once) in summer (AND winter) for well over a decade, for the purpose of reducing polluting energy use. Yeah, I have not actually hit the main power panel switch 12 hours a day (see: ALL of us together). I haven't turned it off at all. Still, my use is WAY BELOW what the average American wastrel considers "necessary". On top of that. Green Mountain Power is moving fast to 100% renewable energy. 

I have been frugal to a fault for at least 20 years. Though my "life style" may be considered too far above that of a slave in Africa to be "sustainable" by the hairsplitters (and hydrocarbon hellspawn out there, of course), I am 100% certain that if everyone on this planet had not bought any clothing, including shoes, for the last 12 years, gone without a water heater for the last four years (4 gallon "showers" - once a week or less frequent, period ;D), gone without a microwave oven for the last two years, driven less than 2000 miles a year for the last 13 years, despite saving 30% of my small pension a year, stayed OUT of the stock market in general (and hydrocarbon corporation stocks in particular), the biosphere would have a fighting chance AND the mammon worshippers would be a lot less popular and planet killing "prosperous" than they are now. I am not part of the Age of Stupid.

I learned of a bit of good news today. We take what we can. Reality is slowly (perhaps too slowly, but it's better than nothing), overcoming 🐵 Wall Street Hydrocarbon Hellspawn worship.

The article has some "supply and demand" BULLSHIT happy talk about "the abundance of fossil fuels out there now," as if this was a temporary thing. It's NOT. For proof of that, just look at a hydrocarbon stock I warned the fossil fueler MKing to drop about four years ago. I told him it was going to tank and WHY it was going to tank.

He laughed it off. I hope he kept lots of SLB (Schlumberger) stock in his portfolio.

SLB was around $86 a share when I issued the warning. It's been all downhill since then. This year the hill turned into a cliff.


Posted by: AGelbert
« on: September 03, 2019, 12:47:17 pm »

Agelbert NOTE: Thank God Dorian is now moving away from Grand Bahama. Hurricane Dorian Finally Moving Again; Hurricane Watch Extended into North Carolina

"Life-Threatening Inundation" - Hurricane Dorian Set To Hammer The East Coast All Week Long
Profile picture for user Tyler Durden
by Tyler Durden
Tue, 09/03/2019 - 11:10
Update (1100ET): Some relative good news - AP reports that Hurricane Dorian has been downgraded to a Category 2 storm.

*  *  *

This is the worst natural disaster that the Bahamas have ever seen.
A scene of devastation in Abaco #hurricanedorian

For hour after hour, Hurricane Dorian has remained almost stationary over the islands, and the devastation is immense.  Power poles are being snapped like twigs, vehicles are being tossed about like toys, and thousands upon thousands of homes have already been destroyed.

However, as End of The American Dream's Michael Snyder notes, while the good news is that Dorian is now just a Category 4 storm, the bad news is that it will continue to move at a “glacial pace” for the rest of this week.

Bands of heavy rain are already pummeling Florida, and the storm is going to slowly crawl up the east coast in the coming days.  In fact, according to the latest projection the storm will still be south of Washington D.C. on Friday afternoon.

And remember, this is just a forecast.  If the track of the storm deviates to the left just a little bit, Hurricane Dorian will actually make landfall somewhere along the east coast.  The following is an excerpt from the update that the National Hurricane Center just released…

Dorian remains nearly stationary just north of Grand Bahama Island. A slow west-northwestward motion is expected to resume overnight and continue into early Tuesday. A turn toward the northwest is forecast by late Tuesday, with a northeastward motion forecast to begin by Wednesday night. On this track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will continue to pound Grand Bahama Island into Tuesday morning. The hurricane will then move dangerously close to the Florida east coast late Tuesday through Wednesday evening and then move dangerously close to the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Wednesday night and Thursday.

But even if the eye never makes landfall, this storm will still have a tremendous impact on communities all along the east coast over the course of this upcoming week.

In fact, evacuation orders were just issued for a million more people…

The governors of South Carolina and Georgia ordered at least 1 million people to evacuate their coasts beginning Monday after Hurricane Dorian left devastation in the northwest Bahamas and headed for the U.S. East Coast.

South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster and Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp both announced mandatory evacuation orders to take effect at noon Monday in advance of the slow-moving, Category 5 hurricane.

In addition, it is being reported that more than 1,200 flights were canceled on Monday alone…

Airlines have canceled about 1,275 Monday flights within, into, or out of the United States because of Hurricane Dorian as of 4:30 p.m. Eastern, according to flight tracker FlightAware.

Florida airports account for the bulk of the cancellations, with Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport topping the list after the airportannounced plans to close at noon Monday. According to FlightAware, there are 548 flight cancellations to and from Fort Lauderdale, home to big operations for Southwest, Spirit and JetBlue.

Even though wind speeds have diminished a bit, Dorian remains an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane, and everyone should be taking it very seriously.

Just look at what is happening in the Bahamas right now.  According to the Daily Mail, the main airport is currently “under five feet of water”…

In the Bahamas, Dorian brought gusts of 225mph and up to 30 inches of rainfall on Sunday, wrecked 13,000 homes, tore down power lines and left Grand Bahama International Airport in Freeport under five feet of water by Monday morning. Experts have also warned of a possible storm surge that could send destructive waves crashing into the coast.

Dorian is the second-strongest Atlantic storm on record, and the joint-strongest ever to make landfall, after it barreled into the Bahamas with wind speeds of 185mph on Sunday.

Of course the Bahamas have seen many hurricanes before, but in all this time there has never been a storm quite like this…

Before Dorian, its worst storm was the 1932 Bahamas hurricane, which passed by with 160 mph winds as a Category 5. Hurricane Andrew in 1992 also passed just south of Dorian’s Bahamian landfall zone but wasn’t nearly as strong as Dorian.

Thousands of homes have literally been swallowed by rising water, and even residences that are 20 to 25 feet above sea level were in danger of being engulfed.

Travis C-Carroll
Minister of Agriculture and Marco City MP Michael Pintard, who lives on Grand Bahama, showing some utterly frightening footage of his home during the passage of Hurricane Dorian.

Embedded video (at article link)
9:52 AM - Sep 2, 2019
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5,854 people are talking about this

Many local residents were not able to escape the flooding, and that included an 8-year-old boy that was the very first reported fatality from the storm.

In the end, the total death toll is likely to be quite high, but that isn’t stopping some idiots from going out in the middle of the storm and trying to perfrom ridiculous stunts for social media…

Several videos posted on social media have shown people in the Bahamas braving the dangerous conditions during the Category 5 hurricane.

One man shared a clip of himself battling strong winds and being soaked by rain, saying he was 80 miles away from the eye and yet still dealing with awful weather.

While footage thought to have been filmed in Marsh Harbour, Nassau, the Bahamas, showed a man trying to navigate a small boat in the choppy waters.

The east coast is the next target for Dorian, and meteorologists are telling us that it will be pummeling the coastline all week long.

And this could potentially just be the beginning, because at this point the National Hurricane Center is tracking four more storms…

As Hurricane Dorian approaches Florida, the National Hurricane Center is keeping track of four potential tropical systems that could become the next tropical depression and possibly Tropical Storm Fernand.

As of 8 a.m. Monday, the most likely candidate is a tropical wave that formed off Africa that was first investigated on Friday is now located 300 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands. It’s moving northwest across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean, the hurricane center said.

So if you live in the Southeast, continue to get prepared, because it looks like this could definitely be “a September to remember”.

We live at a time when hurricanes are getting bigger and more powerful than ever before, and scientists tell us that it is just a matter of time before a disaster even worse than Hurricane Katrina happens.

Let us pray that such a disaster is put off for as long as possible, and let us also be in prayer for those in the Bahamas that are suffering so much right now.

Posted by: Surly1
« on: September 03, 2019, 07:33:38 am »

The hellish future of Las Vegas in the climate crisis: 'a place where we never go outside'

The Clark county death investigator Jill Roberts vividly recalls the sunny 115F (46C) afternoon last summer when she entered a Las Vegas home with no functional air conditioning. The indoor heat felt even worse than the broiling temperature outside. She climbed up the stairs, through thick, stifling air, landing in a third-story bedroom where the resident had died in sweltering conditions. The room had no fan and the door was shut. It felt as if it couldn’t get any hotter.

“Our elements are unforgiving. Especially on those 115F days, it doesn’t take a lot,” Roberts told the Guardian. “In that situation I’ll go stand in the sun in the 115F heat to do my paperwork as opposed to staying in the house because it’s that hot.”

The coroner’s office in Clark county, which encompasses Las Vegas, often records heat as a contributing factor to accidental deaths. There are hikers succumbing to lethal temperatures in the surrounding desert and heat-related deaths in cars and homes when occupants forgo cooling. Roberts has seen homeless people with post-mortem burns from collapsing on hot streets.

[float=left][/float]. And it will get worse. Las Vegas is the fastest warming city in the United States, its temperatures having risen 5.76F since 1970. A June study of coroner data by the Las Vegas-based Desert Research Institute found a correlation between heat waves and heat-related deaths in southern Nevada, both of which, they say, are on the rise. And a recent Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) report warns that without global action to reduce carbon emissions, the city will likely experience 96 days of heat above 100F by the end of the century, including 60 days over 105F, and 7 “off the chart” days that would break the current heat index.

Every city has its own challenges in adapting to climate change, even those that are supposedly accustomed to severe heat. In Las Vegas, a laissez-faire attitude toward growth has allowed high temperatures to become even more deadly, and the scorching heat now threatens the city’s basic functionality.

Like the tourist guzzling alcohol by the resort pool, smiling and flirting until he faints from dehydration, southern Nevada has welcomed unfettered development since the 1930s – the advent of the home cooling era – when its population began to double in size nearly every decade despite limited water resources and increased drought. The resorts have long been the economic driver. Over a third of the area’s workforce is supported by the 40 million visitors a year who descend on their gargantuan hotel towers, bustling casinos and massive convention halls. And as tourism grows, so does the population.

During the boom years before the 2008 housing crisis, hundreds of miles of desert landscape were paved over with heat-absorbing asphalt and concrete, worsening a “heat island” effect in the cauldron-like valley. Outward growth also led to vehicles motoring further across the sprawling metropolis, increasing heat-trapping carbon emissions.

Now, with growth having continued each year since 2011, and new home developments returning to boom-era levels, Sin City is reckoning with a future that looks downright hellish.

“The thing about Vegas is, we always do feast and famine,” said Tick Segerblom, a former state senator who now sits on the Clark county commission, which governs the Las Vegas Valley. “We never bother to say, ‘Where are going? What are we doing?’”

During summer months, when Las Vegas city buses break down notoriously often, many pedestrians carry umbrellas to protect their skin, and those without cover often “shadow walk”, following the shade of palm trees, signs and buildings to avoid direct exposure to a sunshine that can cause humans to overheat.

The city’s poorest residents are most at risk. Fans and cooling systems can save lives, said Jill Roberts, the coroner office investigator, “but some people just don’t have the funds to fix their air conditioning or have working equipment.”

Hundreds of homeless people living in the city choose to camp in storm drains rather than sleep above ground – another dystopian irony to the city’s reputation for glitz and glamor. Those who dislike the tunnels often have to work hard to stay cool. Marcy Averett, 49, and her husband spend 15 hours a day collecting recyclables. But each day before they set off, they buy ice.

“I have to have cold water. I don’t know how people do it with hot water,” she told the Guardian on an August afternoon as she dragged a shopping cart filled with aluminum cans out of the blistering sun, into the shade of a highway overpass. An orange cooler hung from the side of her cart. Averett had a spray bottle to mist her face and neck, and applied lip balm as we spoke. “I put medicated moisturizer on my lips constantly, all day every day, and my lips are still ****. It’s this heat.”

Like many other rapidly warming cities across the United States, Vegas has only recently begun to reckon with its future.

“The real question is, do we want a place where we just go from our houses to our cars to our offices, and never go outside because it’s too hot?” Segerblom, the former state senator, asked. “How many months of the year is that tenable?”

Rachel Licker of the Union of Concerned Scientists warned that southern Nevada’s productivity and essential services will become increasingly stressed as temperatures rise – construction projects will slow or stop more frequently to ensure worker safety; police and postal workers may be impacted; and since studies show school children perform worse as temperatures rise, teachers may need to adjust testing schedules and standards for days if not months at a time.

Meanwhile, power surges may become more common if increased demand overwhelms electrical grids, leaving the people most sensitive to heat illness such as children and the elderly without a cooling system when it’s needed most.

“Even though people in Las Vegas might be used to high levels of heat, it’s going to get even hotter, and we don’t know how much they’re going to be able to withstand,” Licker said.

As Las Vegas Valley reaches its limits, many in the community believe now is an opportune time to contemplate the future of the city. “What do we want to be when we grow up?” said Segerblom. “Is there a way to manage this valley that’s good for the quality of life of the citizens of Nevada, not just for the tourists and hotels?”

He noted that while state and federal policies get the most media attention, municipal governments can impact the environment just as well. Planting more native trees and shrubs, enforcing energy-efficient building standards, zoning to promote upward rather than outward growth, and developing alternatives to blacktop roads and concrete sidewalks are all policies that could have a major impact.

To lessen its own carbon footprint, the city of Las Vegas already began powering all government buildings and streetlights with renewable energy in 2016. The state’s largest energy consumers, the multi-thousand room hotels and casinos on the strip, have also made environmental sustainability a priority in recent years. MGM Resorts has over 20 acres of solar panels atop the Mandalay Bay convention center, and much of the electricity flowing through properties like the Bellagio, Luxor and New York, New York comes from a solar array in the Mojave Desert.

“We do feel it’s our responsibility to find innovative ways to use less energy and procure clean energy for our resorts,” said Mark Campbell, MGM Resorts’ executive director of sustainability. The company also donates unserved banquet food to a local food bank and uses smart thermostats to avoid cooling vacant rooms.

For their part, Nevada voters passed a ballot initiative requiring state utilities to get 50% of their electricity from renewable sources by 2030. As a constitutional amendment, the proposal needs to pass a second time to take effect. But state lawmakers made that vote moot by adopting the standards on their own, on Earth Day 2019, through a legislative bill that received unanimous support. Nevada is rare state now in which reducing carbon emissions has become a bipartisan concern.

In seeking more access to clean energy sources, the state hopes to get ahead of the dilemma posed by longer and more intensive air conditioning seasons that amount to more greenhouse gas emissions spewed into the air.

“Heat is currently the top killer for weather-related hazards in the United States,” said Licker. “Those kinds of numbers would just get worse if we’re headed toward really significant climate change.”

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