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AGelbert

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SNIPPET:

With stocks tumbling, the VIX has, predictably, soared, briefly tipping above 50 intraday on Friday and last trading above 46, surpassing the levels hit during the Volmageddon in Feb 2018 and the highest level since the US credit rating downgrade in August 2011.

Full article:

Fri, 03/06/2020 - 15:20


Agelbert NOTE: Right on Trump ASS SAVING time, the 👹💵 🎩Fed rushed in to ramp up the stocks that were cratering big time at the time of the above post. Notice the (totally unjustified from financial fundamentals) massive ramp up in the last 40 miinutes.


Because I have called, and ye refused; I have stretched out my hand, and no man regarded; But ye have set at nought all my counsel, and would none of my reproof: I also will laugh at your calamity; I will mock when your fear cometh; When your fear cometh as desolation, and your destruction cometh as a whirlwind; when distress and anguish cometh upon you. Then shall they call upon me, but I will not answer; they shall seek me early, but they shall not find me: For that they hated knowledge, and did not choose the fear of the Lord: They would none of my counsel: they despised all my reproof. -- Proverbs 1:24-30

Fri, 03/06/2020 - 16:01

SNIPPET:

GLOBAL CONFIRMED CORONAVIRUS CASES SURPASS 100,000

EUROPE DEBT RISK GAUGE EXTENDS RISE TO HIGHEST SINCE JUNE 2016

GERMANY'S 10-YEAR BOND YIELD FALLS TO RECORD LOW

GERMANY'S 30-YEAR BOND YIELDS FALL TO ALL-TIME LOW

EUROPE SENIOR FINANCIAL DEBT-RISK JUMPS MOST SINCE 2018

JPMORGAN EMBIG DIVERSIFIED SOVEREIGN SPREAD RISES ABOVE 400 BPS

EMERGING-MARKET USD SOV.-BOND PREMIUM JUMPS MOST SINCE 2011

U.S. TREASURY 5-YEAR YIELD FALLS BELOW 0.50%

U.S. 30-YEAR YIELD FELL AS MUCH AS 30BP ON INTRADAY BASIS

U.S. 30-YEAR YIELD SET FOR BIGGEST ONE-DAY DROP SINCE 2009

U.S. CREDIT MARKET FEAR GAUGE SURGES MOST SINCE AT LEAST 2011

VIX'S 3-WEEK CHANGE IS BIGGEST EVER - BIGGER THAN LEHMAN

WTI CRUDE FUTURES DOWN 10.% - BIGGEST FALL SINCE 2014

But the real shock was from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard, who admitted central banks are losing their credibility rapidly: "Many central banks have consistently missed their stated inflation targets to the low side for many years... Critically, the central bank has to be able to actually deliver the required." Which means...

"Credibility of central banks, instead of improving over time based on the achievement of stated goals, seems to be eroding instead."

That's quite an admission but 100% correct and this week's carnage after an emergency 50bps rate-cut did nothing to calm fears is a perfect example...

Full article:

He that loveth father or mother more than me is not worthy of me: and he that loveth son or daughter more than me is not worthy of me. Matt 10:37

Surly1

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America Closed for Business
« Reply #751 on: March 13, 2020, 12:26:14 pm »
Coronavirus closures: List of events, sports, and more canceled amid COVID-19 fears


This just in:
NASCAR changes course, postpones races in Atlanta and Miami due to coronavirus; IndyCar announces cancellations
If NASCAR is postponing events, there is a chance that even Uncle Cracker and Cousin Fud will hear about the virus through their 'I-don'-believe-nothin'-from-fake-news" fog.

By Irina Ivanova, Thom Craver

The novel coronavirus continues to spread in the U.S., with more than 1,300 people sickened and 42 dead. Cities and states are restricting large gatherings of people, and even presidential hopefuls are canceling rallies. Here is a list of events and destinations that have been affected by the outbreak.

Music Festivals

Coachella and Stagecoach

Organizers of the annual music festival have pushed it back by six months at the direction of health authorities. Goldenvoice announced the rescheduling of the 2020 music festival in an Instagram post Wednesday.

Coachella will now take place over two weekends in October: October 9 to 11 and October 16 to 18. Its sibling festival Stagecoach, which highlights country music, will take place October 23 to 25.

Following the announcement, headlining act Dan + Shay took to Twitter to announce that they would not be able to make the rescheduled dates due to their planned tour. 

Coachella draws up to a quarter-million people to Indio, California, every year. This year's lineup is set to include Frank Ocean, Rage Against the Machine, Travis Scott, Lana Del Rey and Thom Yorke.

South by Southwest

Austin mayor Steve Adler cancelled South by Southwest, the preeminent film, music and media conference that was set to begin in one week. The move comes after weeks of public pressure, during which the conference lost major attendees including Facebook, Twitter, Intel, Mashable, Netflix, Amazon and TikTok. More than 50,000 people had petitioned for the event to be called off.

"There was no acceptable path forward that would mitigate the risk to our community," said Dr. Mark Escott, Austin's interim health authority. He noted that the number of visitors attending SXSW and their many geographic origins would have created a crisis situation.

No cases of COVID-19 have been confirmed in Travis county, which houses Austin, Escott said. There are at least six cases in the Houston area, the Associated Press reports.

Ultra Music Festival

Miami's Ultra Music Festival, which was scheduled to take place March 20 to 22, has been called off until next year, the Miami Herald reported.

Tin Pan South Songwriting Festival

The annual songwriting festival featuring both amateur and professional composers has been cancelled. Tin Pan South Songwriting Festival organizers cited both the recent deadly tornado as well as coronavirus concerns. 

Concert Tours

Pearl Jam

Individual musicians are also calling off their tours. Pearl Jam has pushed back the North American leg of its tour, which was scheduled to start March 13 in Toronto. (Shows in Germany are still scheduled to proceed, starting June 23.) 

Avril Lavigne

Pop singer Avril Lavigne has cancelled multiple tour dates throughout Europe in March and April. She took to Twitter to tell her fans "You're in my thoughts and prayers and we are hoping to announce rescheduled shows soon." 

Green Day

American pop-punk band Green Day postponed their "Hella Mega" tour dates in Asia "due to the health + travel concerns with coronavirus," the group said on Twitter. "We know it sucks, as we were looking forward to seeing you all, but hold on to your tickets we'll be announcing the new dates very soon."

Blake Shelton

The country singer's "Friends and Heroes" tour dates from March 12 to March 21 have been postponed and will be rescheduled.

K-Pop: BTS, Taeyeon and NCT

K-pop group BTS, one of the most popular boy bands in the world, on Friday cancelled April tour dates in Seoul citing concerns about the coronavirus. Instead of starting its world tour in Seoul, the band will hold its first show in Santa Clara, California, later in April. Fellow singers Taeyeon and NCT also dropped planned shows for Singapore.

Sporting Events and Leagues

NBA

The NBA suspended its season abruptly on Wednesday "until further notice." The decision came after a Utah Jazz player tested positive for COVID-19 ahead of Utah's game against the Oklahoma City Thunder. That game was immediately cancelled.

At the time the NBA decided to suspend the season, a plan was not yet in place for when the league would resume.

More from CBS Sports:

PGA Golf 

The PGA Tour canceled the Players Championship after the first round and all tournaments until the Masters.

The Masters Tournament has been postponed, the chairman of the Augusta National Golf Club announced on Friday. Fred Ridley, Chairman of Augusta National Golf Club, said the Masters will now take place "at some later date."

NHL 

The NHL announced it is pausing the 2019-20 season, effective immediately, on Thursday. Commissioner Gary Bettman said the league will try to resume games "as soon as it is appropriate and prudent," and is hopeful the stoppage will not affect the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Major League Baseball

MLB has canceled the remainder of spring training and is pushing back the start of the regular season by at least two weeks. The regular season was originally scheduled to start on March 26. 

Major League Soccer

The MLS season has been put on hold. Only two games into the season, the league announced it is suspending play for 30 days

"Our clubs were united today in the decision to temporarily suspend our season – based on the advice and guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC), and other public health authorities, and in the best interest of our fans, players, officials and employees," MLS Commissioner Don Garber said in a statement. "We'd like to thank our fans for their continued support during this challenging time."

Boston Marathon Postponed

The Boston Marathon won't be run Monday April 20 as planned. Boston Mayor Marty Walsh made the announcement at a press conference Friday. The marathon has been rescheduled for September 14

U.S. Soccer

The United States Soccer Federation announced it would cancel upcoming Men's and Women's national team matches in March and April. The statement said majority of the Youth National Team and Extended National Team camps that were planned through the end of April would also be cancelled. 

NCAA Basketball Tournament

The NCAA has canceled the 2020 Division I men's and women's basketball tournaments. Multiple conferences, including the AAC, ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Big East, Pac-12 and SEC, have canceled their conference tournaments, and Duke University announced it is suspending all athletic activities.

XFL

The XFL has suspended play as of Thursday, effective immediately. Prior to Thursday's announcement, the new football league said the March 15 game between the Los Angeles Wildcats and the Seattle Dragons would take place without fans. 

International Soccer

England: Premier League

The English Premier League has postponed their season after calling an emergency meeting set Friday morning. The league had previously postponed the Manchester City vs. Arsenal match after Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta tested positive for coronavirus. 

Several Premier League players have also tested positive for the virus. USMNT midfielder Christian Pulisic and his Chelsea teammates are in self-quarantineafter a teammate tested positive. Several players from Leicester City and Manchester City have also tested positive.

Spain: La Liga

In Spain, all La Liga soccer matches have been suspended for the next two matchdays

Italy: Seria A

Italy's top soccer league Serie A played several matches "behind closed doors" in empty stadiums. But the country has now suspended all sporting events until April 3 at the earliest. 

A defender for top club Juventus has tested positive for the virus.

France: Ligue 1, Ligue 2

France's Ligue 1 and Ligue 2 have suspended all matches until further notice. Prior to Friday morning's announcement, the top French soccer leagues had been playing all matches in empty stadiums, a plan they had intended to see through April 15. 

Germany: Bundesliga

Germany's Bundesliga teams will also play their matches in empty stadiums this weekend. No plans have been announced to suspend play at this time. League officials have will meet on Monday to propose a stoppage on Tuesday for the remainder of March.

Bundesliga club Paderborn announced that coach Steffen Baumgart is being tested for the virus and second division club Hannover 96 has two players in quarantine after testing positive for COVID-19.

UEFA Champions League and Europa League

UEFA, the European governing body for soccer, announced postponement of Europe's two largest soccer tournaments on Friday. Both the Champions League and Europa League competitions are being postponed due to the spread of the coronavirus. 

The Champions League round of 16 was set to finish next week and quarterfinals slated to begin on April 7. After today's announcement, it is now unclear when play will resume.

In-depth: Coronavirus: Champions League, Europa League postponed by UEFA during pandemic

Auto Racing

The opening race of the Formula 1 racing season has been cancelled. The Australian Grand Prix has also been cancelled, race organizers announced Thursday. 

On Thursday, the NHRA announced Gatornationals, the annual drag racing event, was also cancelled. The news comes after a member of the McLaren Racing Team tested positive for COVID-19, the statement said. 

NASCAR is still planning to hold events at Atlanta Motor Speedway and Homestead-Miami Speedway without fans in attendance. In a statement posted on Twitter, NASCAR said the race events will be restricted to competitors, crews, officials, and other necessary personnel.

Technology conferences

E3

E3, the world's biggest gaming convention, has been called off, CNET reported. The Entertainment Software Association, which organizes the annual event, said E3 will return in 2021, according to GameSpot. The convention is a spotlight for major game companies to showcase their new products for the year. Last year, 66,000 people attended.

Microsoft and Ubisoft will showcase their games online instead.

"After careful consultation with our member companies regarding the health and safety of everyone in our industry — our fans, our employees, our exhibitors and our longtime E3 partners — we have made the difficult decision to cancel E3 2020, scheduled for June 9 to 11 in Los Angeles," the Entertainment Software Association said in a statement. 

Facebook Global Marketing Summit and F8 conference

Facebook canceled their annual marketing summit scheduled for early March, which was expected to draw 4,000 people. Additionally, their annual F8 developers conference – scheduled for May 5 and 6 – has also been cancelled. Facebook called off the "in-person component" of its F8 developer conference, the company's biggest annual event, which typically brings thousands of software engineers to Silicon Valley. Facebook said it would replace the event with "locally hosted events, videos and live-streamed content." 

Google I/O and Cloud Next conferences

Google announced Tuesday that it has canceled its annual developers conference scheduled for May 12 to 14. The announcement came after the search giant had announced the cancellation of both its annual Cloud Next conference and Google News Initiative Summit, opting for a virtual cloud conference instead.

Google News Initiative

Google on Friday called off its annual news conference, which would have brought together several hundred media-industry attendees in Sunnyvale, California, in late April. "We regret that we have to cancel our global Google News Initiative summit but the health and wellbeing of our guests is our number one priority," Richard Gingras, vice president of news, said in a statement.

Mobile World Congress

The MWC, the world's largest technology trade show, typically attracts some 100,000 people from around the world to Barcelona every February. But the conference organizers called off this year's event after high-profile attendees including Facebook and LG pulled out.

"The global concern regarding the coronavirus outbreak, travel concern and other circumstances, make it impossible for the GSMA to hold the event," the organization said in a statement on February 12. The show has been an annual event since 2006.

Games Developer Conference

After Gearbox, Blizzard Entertainment, and other big developers announced they would not attend Games Developer Conference in March, the conference was postponed. Organizers say that GDC will still happen in summer 2020, but it is unclear whether the developers that have dropped out will still attend at a later time this year. 

Other conferences and conventions

Adobe Summit

Adobe canceled the in-person version of its eponymous Summit, scheduled for March 29 to April 2 in Las Vegas, the AP reported. More than 20,000 people were expected to attend the conference, which will be held as an "online experience" this year, according to the AP.

Cold Spring Harbor

Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory has called off all conferences and meetings set to take place on its campus on New York's Long Island for the coming month. "CSHL has canceled or postponed all upcoming scientific conferences and courses bringing participants to campus through April 5th, and will reevaluate future offerings on a rolling basis," the lab said in a statement. The move affects at least four courses set to take place in that time period.

Real estate conferences

The National Association of Realtors canceled two West Coast conferences this week: the Joint AE Institute, which was to take place March 13 to 16 in San Diego, and the Realtor Broker Summit, scheduled for March 31 to April 1 in Los Angeles. The group said it is "considering alternatives" and could reschedule, relocate or redesign both conferences later in the year. 

WonderCon 2020

Comic-Con International's upcoming WonderCon convention, originally scheduled for April 1 through April 12, has been postponed until a later date. In a statement, organizers cited a California Department of Public Health recommendation that gatherings and events of more than 250 people should either be postponed or cancelled. 

The fate of San Diego Comic-Con, the largest comic book convention, has not yet been decided. It is currently scheduled to take place July 23 to 26. 

World Bank, International Monetary Fund 

The 189-nation International Monetary Fund and its sister lending organization, the World Bank, announced Tuesday that they will replace their regular spring meetings in Washington with a "virtual format," the Associated Press reported.

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva and World Bank President David Malpass issued a joint statement saying their decision was driven by "growing health concerns related to the virus." Separately, the World Bank has said it would make up to $12 billion available globally to boost countries' response to the coronavirus, the Financial Times reported.

The two global lending organizations typically hold a spring meeting in Washington, where they both have their headquarters. This year's meeting had been scheduled for the week of April 13.

Houston energy conference CERAWeek 2020

A major energy conference in Houston has been called off. IHS Markit has cancelled CERAWeek 2020, an annual energy conference that was set to attract delegates from more than 80 countries to Houston starting March 9.

"We do this with deep disappointment," the organizers said in a statement, adding that their top priority was the health and safety of conference participants.

"We have spent the last several weeks focused on this question, established a medical partnership with Houston Methodist Hospital, have been in continuing dialogue with experts on infectious disease, and established an extensive protocol. But the spread of COVID-19 is moving quickly around the world," the organizers added.

ASEAN summit

The Trump administration on Friday postponed a March 14 summit with the leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. President Trump invited ASEAN leaders to a meeting in Las Vegas after he did not attend a November summit with the group in Bangkok, Reuters reported.

Geneva International Auto Show

The annual Geneva International Motor Show was canceled Friday as the Swiss government put an immediate ban on all public and private events involving more than 1,000 people, CNET reported. The ban is expected to last until at least March 15.

"We are aware that this measure will have a significant impact on public life," said Switzerland's interior minister, Alain Berset.

The event, originally slated to kick off March 5, was expected to generate up to 250 million Swiss francs (or $257 million) in spending, according to the AP.

Switzerland has reported 15 confirmed cases of the new coronavirus. It borders northern Italy, which has seen the largest cluster of cases in Europe. Other affected events include the traditional Carnival procession in Basel, a ski marathon and several soccer matches, according to the AP.

Exhibitors have to dismantle their displays after cancellation of the Geneva Auto Show on February 28 in Geneva, Switzerland. Hundreds of coronavirus cases have been confirmed in nearby northern Italy and smaller numbers are being confirmed daily across western Europe.Robert Hradil / Getty Images

Vacation Destinations

Disney resorts in Hong Kong, Shanghai, Tokyo

The Tokyo Disney resort said this week it would close until March 15 due to the coronavirus outbreak. Disney theme parks in Shanghai have been closed since January 24 and Hong Kong Disney attractions since January 25.

Disneyland – Anaheim, California

Disneyland was granted an exception from the state of California advisory to postpone or cancel all gatherings of 250 people or more. After initially deciding to stay open, Disneyland announced Thursday afternoon it would shut down for the remainder of March. This is only the fourth time in history the California park has closed. 

Officials said that Disney's three hotels at Disneyland — the Disneyland Hotel, Paradise Pier and the Grand Californian — will remain open until Monday, March 16 to give current guests enough time to make travel arrangements.

Disney World – Orlando, Florida

A few hours after announcing Disneyland's closing, Disney announced that the theme parks at Walt Disney World Resort in Orlando, Florida, and the Disneyland Paris Resort will close starting at the close of business on March 15. Disney Cruise Line will suspend all new departures beginning March 14. 

Universal Studios – Orlando and Hollywood

CBS Miami reports that Universal Orlando will be closing its two parks and water park. The closures will also start Saturday and last until the end of March. However, the company said Universal's hotels and CityWalk will remain open.

Universal Studios Hollywood also announced today they will close to the public on Saturday, according to CBS Los Angeles.

First published on March 12, 2020 / 11:21 PM

© 2020 CBS Interactive Inc. All Rights Reserved.


AGelbert

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Global Recession Risk Spikes as World Powers Down, Markets Slump

By Bloomberg on Mar 12, 2020 07:30 pm

container terminal at port

By Enda Curran and Michelle Jamrisko (Bloomberg) — A pandemic-driven global recession is becoming more likely by the day as the flow of goods, services and people face ever-increasing restrictions and financial markets slump. In just the past day or so, President Donald Trump curbed travel to the U.S. from Europe, Italy’s government ordered almost every shop to […]  Read full story...
He that loveth father or mother more than me is not worthy of me: and he that loveth son or daughter more than me is not worthy of me. Matt 10:37

AGelbert

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MSC Sending World’s Biggest Containerships to U.S. to Pick Up Empty Boxes

By The Loadstar on Mar 12, 2020 04:55 pm


By Mike Wackett – MSC is deploying the world’s biggest ships to evacuate empty containers from China to the US, as carriers on the transpacific try to overcome imbalances after weeks of coronavirus disruption to their box control systems. There have been reports of severe equipment shortages in the US and Europe as a consequence of carriers […]  Read full story...
He that loveth father or mother more than me is not worthy of me: and he that loveth son or daughter more than me is not worthy of me. Matt 10:37

AGelbert

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Saudi Arabia Floods Market with Cheap Oil to Squeeze Out Russia

By Reuters on Mar 12, 2020 02:49 pm


By Olga Yagova and Gleb Gorodyankin MOSCOW, March 12 (Reuters) – Saudi Arabia has stepped up efforts to squeeze Russia’s Urals oil grade out of its main markets by offering its own cheap barrels instead after their long-standing deal to support global oil prices fell apart, seven oil sources said. Cooperation between Moscow and Riyadh […]  Read full story...
He that loveth father or mother more than me is not worthy of me: and he that loveth son or daughter more than me is not worthy of me. Matt 10:37

AGelbert

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Princess Cruises Suspends All Cruises for Two Months

By Reuters on Mar 12, 2020 11:00 am

March 12 (Reuters) – Princess Cruises, the operator of two ocean liners quarantined because of numerous coronavirus cases, said on Thursday it would suspend voyages of all its 18 ships for two months. The suspension upends an industry already struggling with cancellations following the outbreak, and comes after Finland’s Viking Line temporarily paused operations of […]  Read full story...
He that loveth father or mother more than me is not worthy of me: and he that loveth son or daughter more than me is not worthy of me. Matt 10:37

AGelbert

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IMO Headquarters Closes, Meetings Suspended Due to Coronavirus

By Reuters on Mar 12, 2020 10:17 am


IMO Headquarters londonLONDON, March 12 (Reuters) – The International Maritime Organization (IMO), the United Nations’shipping agency, has closed its headquarters in London and postponed a session of its Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC). The IMO said the moves followed an assessment on Wednesday by the World Health Organization, which said the virus can be characterized as a pandemic. […]  Read full story...
He that loveth father or mother more than me is not worthy of me: and he that loveth son or daughter more than me is not worthy of me. Matt 10:37

AGelbert

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Agelbert NOTE: The following comment clamly explains why Mr. Trump is between a rock and a hard place. The commenter is a CAPITALIST Trump supporter who, because of his ideology, erroneously labels corrupt government intervention to prop up the markets as a "Marxist" evil rather than the routine selective (i.e. Socialist bailouts ONLY for the rich and the CAPITALIST SHAFT for everyone else) babying of the top 1% that CAPITALISM is infamous for. Ideology issues aside, the commenter can add and subtract quite well, though he seems allergic to using caps. 

Quote
Janus
There are two and only two options here:

first, and the one being tacitly proposed, is for the fed to step in and directly buy (seems having a coterie of market proxies is no longer good enough for a government that wants to go meta-marxist/lenninist) oil, oil futures, copper, iron, soybeans, coffee, fcoj, pork bellies, platinum, palladium, wheat, corn and all their respective futures contracts; while at the same time selling gold, silver and crypto and all their respective futures contracts.  this will also demand the coordinated buying of all etfs and their underlying assets.  all hy bonds, all junk bonds, all bond indexes and at the same time all sovereign bonds and sovereign bond synthetic instruments.  it would further require the direct purchase of stocks, stock futures and stock indexes -- particularly those companies in good standing with .gov.  oh and let's not forget real estate.  now that chinese buyers have been taken out of the market and prices are so far out of the reach of organic buyers (millenials plagued with student debt and boomers clinging to their single asset as if it were an investment), we will have to underwrite the ENTIRE real estate market, commercial and residential, and be the buyer of last resort for that too...not to mention reits and fixed income funds abstracted from real estate.  and we certainly cannot neglect real estate index/investment funds, they can't be allowed to feel the pinch -- no one can.  and since we're on the subject, since we've allowed insurance companies to buy their own reinsurance companies (in some sort of twisted feedback loop doomed to fail), we will have to underwrite both the insurance comapanies and the reinsurance behemoths.  did i mention banks and their derivative exposure?  lel.  only a few QUADRILLION needed to shore those balance sheets up.  F(inance) I(nsurance) R(eal) E(state) are all now marxist extensions of political policy.  kiss your constitution and free market goodbye.  the whole system is so interconnected you have to save them all if you save any.  and with such sweeping and drastic policy, it will still only net us a month or two of security.  we will be toast within six months if this policy is pursued.

this would result in asset prices so far divorced from any sense of value that, one, you would see absolutely no buyers or, two, the value of the currency will have to depreciate to levels that would match the synthetic valuations. and since we're now talking about valuations that are, if price discovery were allowed, several multiples apart from fed targeted prices, we're talking about the dollar being worth 1/3rd to 1/4 of its current puny purchasing power -- particularly for the things we need the most -- to maintain parity in so disjointed a market. something ultimately has to give, and in the end it will be the dollar.


and this is a dynamic that can no longer be hidden with CPI finageling a la cheaply produced foreign trinkets.  CPI will explode and there will be no ability to maintain the illusion any longer.

the only -- ONLY -- prudent thing to do is let it crash to about 50-40% of top tick, and then start to cushion the blow further down...because absent internvention, the market could realistically plummet 80%.  no exaggeration.  it's that bad. any attempt to keep this market range bound at current prices, or God forbid market peak, will absolutely destroy this country and its financial system. anyone telling you otherwise is not looking at the data and has no ability to forecast on earnings nor the catastrophic damage this virus will do to every sector of the market.

the other option is really the only option if we intend to carry on with our way of life and america's role in the world.  let the market drop, let prices stabilize, let assets (all assets FIRE related) become intrinsically valuable at market determined prices, and THEN boost the system back to life.  anything else would have to be interpreted as a deliberate attempt to sabotage this nation.  this will give us the opportunity to clear out the derivative market and other cancerous forms of malinvestment.  it's a once in a century opportunity being shooed away because daily political polls are the most important consideration.

i made a bet that this administration would act in America's long (and short) term interest.  we will soon know if my hopes have been misplaced.

Associated article:

by Tyler Durden Sat, 03/14/2020 - 13:30


The Aftermath - Surveying The Wreckage From Last Week's Market-nado

by Tyler Durden
Sat, 03/14/2020 - 13:30

The last two weeks have been unprecedented for any number of reasons  - trading ranges, fund blow-ups, basis dislocations, correlation-one regime, no safe harbor - but aside from being the fastest collapse from a peak into bear market in US history...


There are a number of other WTF charts that show what just happened from 30,000 feet...

The bond market's range this week was the largest ever...


And despite the massive liquidity, the money markets appear extremely stressed...


And market functioning in credit-related bond ETFs broke...


The market has swung from expecting nothing to demanding 100bps of rate-cuts next week by The Fed...


Bonds provided no 'hedge' this week as combined bond and stock losses were the worst since Lehman...


And aside from the broken market function, market internals are almost unprecedented (as Dana Lyons shows below)...

NYSE New Lows Hit A New High

Source: Dana Lyons' Tumblr

CBOE Equity Put:Call Ratio Hits Highest Level Since 2008

Source: Dana Lyons' Tumblr


After Multi-Decade False Breakout, Value Line Geometric Composite, i.e., the “Median Stock,” Now Down 40% To 7-Year Lows, Retracing 50% Of 2009-2018 Rally

Source: Dana Lyons' Tumblr


Likewise, 3 Weeks After False Breakout To All-Time Highs, Europe’s Stoxx 600 Now At 7-Year Lows, Retracing 50% Of Post-2009 Rally

Source: Dana Lyons' Tumblr


Deutsche Bank Hitting New All-Time Low

Source: Dana Lyons' Tumblr


Muni Bond ETF MUB Hit A 52-Week Low On Thursday…After Hitting 52-Week High On Monday (…same goes for $MBB $LQD $AGG)

Source: Dana Lyons' Tumblr


Junior Gold Miners 3X Bull ETF $JNUG: 2 Weeks Ago, Printed Multi-Year Highs @ 105; Today, It’s At An All-Time Low @ 7.50

Source: Dana Lyons' Tumblr


Crude Oil Testing Decade Lows $OIL

Source: Dana Lyons' Tumblr


S&P 500 9-Day Volatility Index $VIX9D Topped 100, Highest Reading On Record

Source: Dana Lyons' Tumblr

10-year U.S. Treasury Volatility Index $TYVIX Smashed Its Previous Record High

Source: Dana Lyons' Tumblr


Crude Oil Volatility Index $OVX Nearly Tripled Its Previous Record High

Source: Dana Lyons' Tumblr


And finally, if you wanted some even bigger context, the market is starting to reverse the illusion of wealth enabled by central bank largesse over the last five years (during which corporate profits have been flat):


Brace.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/aftermath-surveying-wreckage-last-weeks-market-nado
He that loveth father or mother more than me is not worthy of me: and he that loveth son or daughter more than me is not worthy of me. Matt 10:37

AGelbert

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Sun, 03/15/2020 - 17:40

By Tyler Durden

SNIPPET:

As the ultra rich Snake Plisken out of the soon-to-be quarantined Manhattan - where at least one bank has are already run out of $100 bills - to fortify themselves against the viral zombie peasant hordes in their impregnable castles in the Hamptons, one thing they're looking to hoard is cash, which has caused some substantial pressure on financial institutions in the area, according to Bloomberg. At least one New Yorker had his $30,000 cash withdrawal request denied at a Chase bank after being told the limit was $10,000. Meanwhile, bank employees said they were waiting on a "shipment of cash" to fulfill other requests that have been made exceeding the $10,000 amount.

Read more:



He that loveth father or mother more than me is not worthy of me: and he that loveth son or daughter more than me is not worthy of me. Matt 10:37

AGelbert

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by Tyler Durden

Sun, 03/15/2020 - 18:08

After firing the biggest emergency "shock and awe" bazooka in Fed history , one which was meant to restore not just partial but full normalcy to asset and funding markets, Emini futures are not only not higher, but tumbling by the -5% limit down at the start of trading...

He that loveth father or mother more than me is not worthy of me: and he that loveth son or daughter more than me is not worthy of me. Matt 10:37

AGelbert

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Massive Marketwide Margin Calls (on COVID-19 bankrupting steriods) Monday?



Hat tip to Surly for the following MARCH 15, 2020 story that tells it EXACTLY LIKE IT REALLY IS:
 

SNIPPET:

Everyone expecting the financial markets to magically return to January 2020 levels once the pandemic dies down is delusional. All the dominoes of crashing market valuations, crashing incomes, crashing profits and soaring defaults will take down all the fantasy-based valuations of bubblicious assets: stocks, bonds, real estate, bat guano, you name it. (Actually, bat guano will be the keeper of all the asset classes listed.)

Read more:

The Covid-19 Dominoes Fall: The World Is Insolvent
charleshughsmith.blogspot.com - Subtract their immense debts and they have negative net worth, and therefore the market value of their stock is zero. To understand why the financial dominoes toppled by the Covid-19 pandemic lead to…

Read more Doomstead Diner Daily 3/16/20
He that loveth father or mother more than me is not worthy of me: and he that loveth son or daughter more than me is not worthy of me. Matt 10:37

AGelbert

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Economic Update: Capitalism, Jobs & Depressed People
11,383 views•Mar 16, 2020


Democracy At Work
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S10 E11] Capitalism, Jobs & Depressed People

**We make it a point to provide the show free of ads. Please consider supporting our work. Become an EU patron on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/economicupdate

THIS WEEK'S TOPICS (w/timestamps):
00:42 - Updates on Vancouver, BC, taxing its richest
03:12 - JP Morgan Chase recognizes climate change threat and market's failure to cope;
06:59 - ways money shapes US politics today
11:27 - why US women's soccer gender discrimination lawsuit helps all soccer players vs profit-driven soccer federation.
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15:02 - SPECIAL GUEST: Prof. Wolff interviews psychotherapist Tess Fraad-Wolff on why our jobs get us depressed and what to do about it.
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Shop our Store: http://bit.ly/2JkxIfy[S10 E09] When Stale Debates Distract


On this week's episode of EU, Prof. Wolff presents updates on ;  and
The second half of the show features an interview with
Category News & Politics
He that loveth father or mother more than me is not worthy of me: and he that loveth son or daughter more than me is not worthy of me. Matt 10:37

AGelbert

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First US Economic Data of the COVID-19 Era Emerges. It’s Ugly

by Wolf Richter • Mar 16, 2020 • 136 Comments

This is just the beginning. There will be more of the same and worse.

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET:

Nearly all economic data as reported on a monthly or quarterly basis have so far reflected the era in the US before the economy reacted to the coronavirus. These reactions – from panic-buying of toilet paper to airlines shutting down much of their international and now even domestic routes – were phased into the economy beginning in later February and have now risen to a crescendo. But they’re slow in making their way into the economic data.

We get company by company warnings, and we get the government’s and the Fed’s reaction to the events, but we haven’t seen the impact in the official data yet. The first data to seriously reflect this are the surveys of company executives such as the Purchasing Manager’s Indices for March, out later this month, or the New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing index, which was released this morning,

And it’s ugly: The Empire State Manufacturing index of General Business Conditions plunged by 34.4 points, the largest point-drop on record, from a still relatively sanguine level of 12.9 in February, to the level in March of negative -21.5, the lowest since 2009, and right at where it had been in October 2008, following the Lehman bankruptcy in September. And this was just the first reaction related to the impact of Covid-19 mitigation measures:


Timing: This survey was sent on March 1 to executives at manufacturing companies in New York State. Most responses normally come in by the 10th. And the cutoff is the 15th. So this survey data released today reflects what the executives of manufacturing companies saw in the first half of March.

Manufacturing had already been weak all last year and earlier this year, before the coronavirus was even an issue in the US. But now the measures aimed at slowing the spread of the virus are hitting it. Some highlights among the sub-indices:

New Orders plunged to a level of -9.3, down 31.4 points from February’s level of +22.1.

Shipments plunged to a level of -1.7, down 20.6 points from February’s level of +18.9.

Number of employees dropped to a level of -1.5, down 8.1 points from February’s already low level 6.6.

Average Employee workweek dropped to a level of -10.6 from February’s already negative level of -1.0.

“Optimism about future activity wanes,” the report said about how companies see general business conditions over the next six months. And the index about these future business conditions plunged by 21.7 points to +1.2, the lowest level since the depth of the Financial Crisis in January and February 2009:


This was the first indicator of what the US economy is currently going through – namely a partial shutdown of economic activity – in response to efforts aimed at slowing the spread of the corona virus. Similar plunges, and likely some even worse plunges, in the data will crop up over the next few weeks and months as the impact of the Covid-19 measures percolates to the surface in the data.

Holy moly, what a mess. But here is our hilarious cartoon of Jerome Powell tearing out his hair. Gotta keep you sense of humor. Read… Panicked Fed Slashes Rates to Near 0%, Throws $700 Billion QE on Top, after $1.5 Trillion Shock-and-Awe Repos Fizzled. Stock Futures Plunge 5%, Hit Limit Down

https://wolfstreet.com/2020/03/16/first-economic-data-of-the-us-covid-19-era-emerges-its-ugly/
He that loveth father or mother more than me is not worthy of me: and he that loveth son or daughter more than me is not worthy of me. Matt 10:37

AGelbert

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Quote of the day (AND DECADE)
« Reply #763 on: March 17, 2020, 01:08:11 pm »
Agelbert NOTE: If you don't know what the (100% reality based) Chapwood Index is, now is a good time to find out how much the 😈 Bureau of Labor (LYING) Statistics has gamed the CPI down to make we-the-people believe we are not being robbed into penury by deliberate 💵👹🎩 Federal Reserve inflationary money printing to keep the 🐍 parasitical rich happy. 

Quote of the day (AND DECADE):
Quote
EcuadorExpat

What I find incredible is that none of these guys can figure out that when interest rates go negative, there is no longer an economic system and the rules like supply and demand mean nothing. There are no markets, there is no analysis that can predict the markets, fundamentals in pricing have meant nothing for quite some time now.
 
And since the chapwood index shows that REAL INFLATION has been over 8% for the last 10 years, interest rates have been effectively negative.
 
And as far as timing goes, the wheels come off when those with the printing press decide they will come off. To their benefit of course.

SNIPPET from associated article:

Markets hit all-time record highs just a few weeks ago. Stocks hit record levels. Corporate bond spreads had never been tighter. Most of the globes sovereign debt was trading at sub-zero or barely positive yields. The bull market was unstoppable – no matter how bad the news about virus, trade wars, and rising debt seemed.

Everything was perfectly pricedmispriced.

The market’s final euphoric top wasn’t driven by economic reality, phenomenal growth expectations, accelerating corporate profitability or rising consumer incomes and discretionary spending. Nope. The only real driver was the continuing expectation/belief Central Banking Authorities would continue to juice the market and distort prices the way they’ve been doing since they stumbled on monetary experimentation, QE and NIRP since the last crisis.

Now we know they were not a cure. They were hits of monetary addiction.

Just how dangerous we will shortly find out – just how damaging the unintended consequences the last eight years of market distortion have been. I suspect unravelling the damage will be long-term and extremely destabilising.

For instance; the obvious one is corporate debt. $14 trillion of new corporate debt in the last 7 years needs to be repaid. Was it spent on building new productive assets? Nope. Most of it was spent on stock buybacks which created wealth for owners, but has simply leveraged companies to the hilt. There is enormous balance sheet damage to be corrected – and that is not stock positive in the next few months.

Full article:

Tue, 03/17/2020 - 10:30

Authored by Bill Blain via MorningPorridge.com,



 
He that loveth father or mother more than me is not worthy of me: and he that loveth son or daughter more than me is not worthy of me. Matt 10:37

AGelbert

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Last Updated: March 18, 2020 at 12:02 p.m. ET
First Published: March 18, 2020 at 10:49 a.m. ET

By Nicholas Jasinski


He that loveth father or mother more than me is not worthy of me: and he that loveth son or daughter more than me is not worthy of me. Matt 10:37

 

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