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Author Topic: Money  (Read 8015 times)

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AGelbert

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Re: Money
« Reply #270 on: January 19, 2018, 01:39:53 pm »
The Fascinating Psychology of Blowoff Tops

Of two minds

by Charles Hugh Smith

SNIPPET:

Central banks have guaranteed a bubble collapse is the only possible output of the system they've created.
 
The psychology of blowoff tops in asset bubbles is fascinating: let's start with the first requirement of a move qualifying as a blowoff top, which is the vast majority of participants deny the move is a blowoff top.

FULL ARTICLE:

http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2018/01/the-fascinating-psychology-of-blowoff.html

This is not a small cut. It's massive. Some people say the effects are already baked into the cake, but I don't think that's correct. I think it'll buoy the markets for 2-3 more years, most likely. The dollar is headed down. Bond prices are going up. Gold is going up, Oil appears to be headed up. To me, this is likely to all build in the current direction until another huge bust happens, but my guess is it's 3-4 years away, still. All the things I pay attention to seem to line up for that. Could it happen sooner? Sure, but I wouldn't count on it.

Sell, and sell everything now rather than ride the bubble collapse down.

This is probably premature. People selling stocks like Apple and Amazon might see them double again before the crash comes. I definitely agree that a "buy stocks and forget about it" Warren Buffett approach to equities is not too smart. But I'd bet plenty of savvy investors CAN come close enough to calling the actual top to get out with most of their gains intact.

When I read this article, I wondered about CHS' "sell" assertion as well. It does seem premature, although I'm sure you have better reasons for thinking so than I do. My reason was that the tax cut hasn't even been on the books for a month, so the long term effects are yet to be fully felt and priced. Would be nice if we had 3-4 years. Who knows?


I'm with CHS on this one. We are nearing the end of the Blow Off. My reasons for belieiving this are different than CHS's reasons.

We are in a disguised Depression. The idiotic pricing formula they use on Wall Street is NOT based on anything rational. It is based on purchasing demand which is absent of all fundamentals. The tiny percentage of the US population that can buy large blocks of stocks for corporate buy backs is further distoring the FACT that there are fewer and fewer people to buy the products that corporations sell.

I do not think we will get past the end of February before a massive tanking takes place. This market is going to come out of the sky like a shooting star.  🌠

It will be poetic justice to see corporations that jacked up their stock price with buy backs while they were laying off employees have to EAT their stock at super low prices.
Hope deferred maketh the heart sick: but when the desire cometh, it is a tree of life. Pr. 13:12

 

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