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AGelbert

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Re: Money
« Reply #345 on: April 03, 2018, 09:57:04 pm »
Trade War 💣 Round 2: US Releases China Tariff List Targeting 1,300 Products

by Tyler Durden

Tue, 04/03/2018 - 19:11

SNIPPET:

Assuring that a second retaliation by China in the escalating trade war is just a matter of days if not hours, moments ago the US Trade Representative released a list of Chinese product subject to 25% tariffs as part of Trump's Section 301 crackdown on Beijing Intellectual Property abuses, focusing on China's high tech product push.


Below we list the top US imports from China. Not surprisingly, most are found in the new tariff list:

Telecom equipment
Computers
Toys
Office equipment
Furniture
Seats (professional chairs)
Auto parts
TVs
Lamps & lighting
Suitcases & bags


What else is in the list? ???

Stuff that you put on your body: spared. Stuff you put in your home: targeted,” said Hun Quach, vice president of international trade for the Retail Industry Leaders Association. Some more details from Bloomberg:

Quote
In some cases the tariffs targeted raw materials and components used to assemble finished goods in the U.S., such as ingredients for insulin, while in others the items were complete products, like Chinese-assembled cars. Many of the affected products were machines used to make other things, vexing factory owners accustomed to being praised by Trump for manufacturing in the U.S.

While apparel and footwear won’t get additional tariffs, some equipment used to make them, like textile printers and injection molders for shoes, are getting taxed. “Tariffs on certain machinery will make American-made products more expensive,” said Matthew Shay, president of the National Retail Federation, in a statement.

With the list published, the National Association of Manufacturers will be consulting with its members about what specific products on the list it may oppose and try to get removed during the comment period, spokesman Michael Short said. The group urged Trump to pursue a bilateral trade agreement with China rather than act on its own.

Trade industry associations also said they are expressing their concerns about the tariffs publicly and privately with the administration and will be active during during the comment and review period to determine the final list of products subject to tariffs.

Full article: 👀

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-04-03/trade-war-round-2-us-releases-china-tariff-list-targeting-1300-products
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AGelbert

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Re: Money
« Reply #346 on: April 03, 2018, 10:06:41 pm »
Stock Market Bulls Don’t Want The Dow To Slip From Here! 🚩

by kimblecharting

Tue, 04/03/2018 - 10:25


The Dow Jones Industrial Average peaked at 26,616 on January 26th. Those highs set the stage for the stock market correction that investors are facing right now.

How and Why?

We’ve been warning since early this year that stocks were getting ahead of themselves. The chart below illustrates just how far ahead they got… the Dow’s momentum reading this year reached levels not seen since 1929, 1987, 2000, and 2007. At the same time, the Dow’s price reached the top side (point 1) of a 70-year rising channel (point A).

Decision Point

The stock market correction has taken the Dow Jones down to an important intermediate-term support point – its rising “monthly” trend line off the 2016 lows (point 2). What happens here could determine whether this is a “run of the mill” correction or something more ominous.

Any puncture of support would need to be short-lived for the intermediate uptrend to remain intact. However, if bulls fail to adequately defend this trend line, then the market decline could get ugly 💣 💥. Stay tuned!

Dow Jones Industrial Average Long-Term Chart

While many have been focused on the 200-day moving average test for the S&P 500, the Power of the Pattern is of the opinion this is one very Important “Support Test” in play for the Dow. Support is support friends until broken.

This post was originally written for See It Markets.com.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-04-03/stock-market-bulls-dont-want-dow-slip-here
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AGelbert

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Re: Money
« Reply #347 on: April 04, 2018, 02:27:41 pm »
Agelbert NOTE: Rather than the title given below, a more appropriate title woud be: Continuously Calculated Corruption.

Contours  🏴‍☠️ 🚩 Of The Correction 🌠

by Tyler Durden

Wed, 04/04/2018 - 12:49

SNIPPET:

Summary

Despite the recent correction, the U.S. equity markets still easily lead all major global markets in terms of valuation. This is not cause for optimism, it is a sign of extended risk. The outlook for earnings has improved due to tax reform and other recent fiscal policy measures, but even with that boost, earnings do not support these valuations. There is also a clear tension between the Fed and their monetary measures and those of the Congress undertaking new fiscal stimulus. Those paths will overlap and it will be bumpy at best with tightening Fed policy opposed by the forces of fiscal stimulus buttressed by tariffs and the threat of retaliation from other countries.

The markets appear to have sent an early warning to equity holders with the spike in volatility, but with the sustained optimism of the market since, it does not appear as though many have taken heed. Since early February, volatility has dropped back to less elevated levels but it remains significantly higher than the single digit readings commonly seen in 2017. Even if VIX stabilized to average 15 for the next few weeks, that would still be 36% above the average level of 11 for all of 2017. If interest rates remain elevated, to say nothing of rising, it will create further portfolio deleveraging pressure especially on the $1 trillion in funds managed under risk parity strategies.

Despite the bounce from the lows seen on February 8, the market seems uncomfortable and edgy. At the same time, it appears unconvinced that anything could be wrong. Investors 🙉 🙊 🐷  have enjoyed such a long period of extreme central bank 😈 accommodation and the easy returns 💵 🎩 that have gone along with it, they are reluctant to modify for the changes clearly taking place. Risks, both implied and explicit, are large 💣 and growing 🚩 but investors seem mostly unaware despite the early warning signal.

A fair characterization would be that it’s like living next to the city dump, if you’re there long enough, you eventually stop noticing the smell.

full article:

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-04-04/contours-correction

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AGelbert

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Re: Money
« Reply #348 on: April 04, 2018, 04:45:38 pm »

Authored by Adam Taggart via PeakProsperity.com,

SNIPPET:

Wed, 04/04/2018 - 13:54

To all those investors expecting the Fed to step in to backstop the recent weakness seen in the stock market, Wolf Richter warns: The cavalry isn't coming.

After years of force-feeding too much liquidity into world markets, the central banking cartel is now aware of the Franken-markets it has created. And now with a new head at the US Federal Reserve, and soon at the ECB, central bankers have shifted their priority from supporting asset prices to now actively engineering lower prices.

They just don't want prices to drop too far too fast.



Agelbert NOTE: I agree that the Fed will not keep the markets from sinkng slowly, but I totally disagree with the anti-Tesla baloney pushed in the above u-tube podcast. Based on that, Ford would have been bankrupt by 1920. Tesla has a LOT more going for it than Ford did when Rockefeller bailed it out THREE times. These bean counters like wolf Richter forget the "minor detail" called CATASTROPHIC CLIMATE CHANGE when they arbitrarily claim that Tesla is a "bad investment". Tesla's business model is what ALL corporations should strive to emulate. That model REQUIRES that you produce a product that benefits society AND that uses revenue to reinvest in plant and equipment, INSTEAD of using the revenue almost exclusively to bleed corporate coffers 😈 in order to pay investors greater dividends.

Tesla is probably the car manufacturing corporation with the greatest chance of success and profitability in the in-your-face reality that even the delusional fossil fuelers will soon be forced to deal with.

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AGelbert

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Re: Money
« Reply #349 on: April 04, 2018, 07:14:17 pm »
  April 3, 2018

Wall Street Bankers' Executive Bonuses 😈 👹 💵 🎩 Highlight Worsening Inequality

Banks are collecting money from every corner of this economy, becoming "the special winner in the capitalist game of our time," says economist Richard D. Wolff. The bonuses "strike another blow for that growing inequality between the rich and everybody else in the United States"


http://therealnews.com/t2/story:21476:Wall-Street-Bankers%27-Executive-Bonuses-Highlight-Worsening-Inequality
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AGelbert

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Re: Money
« Reply #350 on: April 05, 2018, 02:56:17 pm »

Soybeans, Cars, Planes, and "To Hell With Wall Street"  ;)

April 5, 2018

by Mike Mish Shedlock

SNIPPET:

While the Trump list would affect 1,300 categories of goods, China critically is targeting a narrower range of 106 types of U.S. goods, many of them high-profile. Soybeans and smaller commercial passenger planes, mostly made by Boeing Co. , are the most valuable U.S. exports to China, worth nearly $23 billion last year.

Also prominent in China’s retaliation are sport-utility vehicles and other agricultural products, from beef to sorghum—goods that were chosen to hit U.S. states that supported President Donald Trump, according to people familiar with Beijing’s plans.


Not a Trade War 😇

Quote
Donald J. Trump 🦀
✔ @realDonaldTrump
We are not in a trade war with China, that war was lost many years ago by the foolish, or incompetent, people who represented the U.S. Now we have a Trade Deficit of $500 Billion a year, with Intellectual Property Theft of another $300 Billion. We cannot let this continue! 7:22 AM - Apr 4, 2018 120K 55.3K people are talking about this



Mercy me. Don't call this a trade war. It's really a peanut butter sandwich.


Read more: 

https://www.themaven.net/mishtalk/economics/soybeans-cars-planes-and-to-hell-with-wall-street-sjnypPp9f0-WURtsr3iSWQ/


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AGelbert

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Re: Money
« Reply #351 on: April 20, 2018, 04:58:28 pm »
Agelbert NOTE: If you wish to know, without any doubt whatsoever, who are the oligarchs totally, not partially, responsible for the horrendously polluted, massively unjust, deliberately cruel and generally miserable condition of human civilization, the graphic below is sine qua non. It is not difficult to determine where the most numerous, and consequently most damaging, group of profit over people and planet parasites, euphemistically called the "ultra rich", reside. 


Where the World’s Ultra Rich
Population Lives



https://www.visualcapitalist.com/ultra-rich-population-lives/


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AGelbert

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Re: Money
« Reply #352 on: April 20, 2018, 05:56:30 pm »
America’s “Actual” GDP: The Shocking Truth

BY BRIAN MAHER

APRIL 19, 2018

SNIPPET:

Economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff have shown that annual economic growth falls 2% per year when the debt-to-GDP reaches 60%.

When it hits 90%… they conclude one dollar of debt yields less than one dollar of output.

Debt no longer lifts… but drags.

What is America’s current debt-to-GDP ratio?

Roughly 105%.  :P

When did the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio cross the 90% red line?

This is, when did the wine start turning to vinegar?

In 2010, it appears… shortly after the great turning point.

After 2008, argues financial advisory firm Baker & Co., “something in our economy broke.”


Before 2008, what they term “actual” GDP had always risen alongside the rising debt — whether because of it — or in spite of it.

But no longer.


Full article:

https://dailyreckoning.com/americas-actual-gdp-shocking-truth/



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AGelbert

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Re: Money
« Reply #353 on: April 25, 2018, 05:28:05 pm »
Agelbert NOTE: I have read around five different news items on these giant cranes being delivered recently to major ports all over the world. This is evidence of a boom phase in the global economy (which means AN INCREASING ANNUAL AMOUNT of Greenhouse Gases, instead of the required reduction of these pollutants  >:(),  with nothing even remotely resembling an imminent collapse envisioned by the powerful oligarchs that run this profit over people and planet madhouse.

Catastrophic climate change will change all that, of course, but it may take a decade or so for the oligarchs to smell the climate change profit destroying coffee.   

For now, the fossil fuel worshipping suckers are enjoying the boom.

Tomorrow is Yesterday...



Giant Ship-to-Shore Cranes Parked Off New York

April 24, 2018 by gCaptain

Photo: Patrick Hamilton via Instagram

A heavy lift ship carrying four giant ship-to-shore cranes is at anchor off Brooklyn, New York awaiting the green light to pass below the Verrazano-Narrows Bridge and into the Port of New York and New Jersey.

The cranes are destined for APM Terminals’ facility in Port Elizabeth where they will eventually handle ultra-large containerships arriving from Europe and Asia via the Expanded Panama Canal.

The cranes are arriving aboard the heavy lift ship Zhen Hua 20 from Shanghai, China, where they departed a little over two months ago.

Once offloaded, the cranes will be the largest ever installed at the Port of New York and New Jersey and perhaps even the largest on U.S. East Coast.

Before their arrival at Port Elizabeth, the crane booms will need to be lowered over the course of a few days so the vessel can fit below the Verrazano-Narrows Bridge followed by the recently-raised Bayonne Bridge. The vessel will also have to wait for low water, which combined will provide just enough clearance for the cranes to pass safely below the bridges. 

The Port of New York and New Jersey is the busiest port on the US East Coast and third busiest in the United States behind the Los Angeles and Long Beach Ports.

http://gcaptain.com/giant-ship-to-shore-cranes-parked-off-new-york/
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AGelbert

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Re: Money
« Reply #354 on: April 25, 2018, 05:46:11 pm »


OOCL and Microsoft to Develop Artificial Intelligence 🤖 Applications for the Shipping Industry

April 24, 2018 by gCaptain


An OOCL containership calls at Eurogate Container Terminal in Wilhelmshaven, Germany. Photo: EUROGATE

Hong Kong-based shipping company Orient Overseas Container Line (OOCL) has teamed up with Microsoft’s research arm in Asia to advance the application of Artificial Intelligence research in the shipping industry.

The collaboration will look for ways to use AI to improve shipping network operations and achieve efficiencies within OOCL’s business. The project is expected to nurture over 200 AI developers over the next 12 months.

OOCL sees AI as key to the it’s digital transformation. The company already uses machine learning in some its operations and has as a talent base of over 1,000 developers located in San Jose, Hong Kong, Zhuhai, Shanghai and Manila. Each month, the company’s systems process and analyze over 30 million vessel data points. “By leveraging AI technology and machine learning, the company develops predictive analytics on vessel schedules and berth activities,” it says.

“With MSRA’s efforts and expertise, we expect to save around USD10 million in operation costs annually by applying the AI research and techniques for optimizing shipping network operations from our most recent 15-week engagement,” said Steve Siu, Chief Information Officer of OOCL. “Moving forward, we will embark on an 18-month joint-partnership in research and development to apply deep learning and reinforcement learning in shipping network operations.”

Microsoft Research Asia s Microsoft’s fundamental and applied research arm in the Asia Pacific region.

“Microsoft has been committed in providing cutting-edge AI solutions for companies across different industries to help drive digital transformation,” commented Cally Chan, General Manager of Microsoft Hong Kong. “With our Intelligent Cloud and Intelligent Edge vision, we are partnering with selected top customers worldwide to accelerate the adoption of AI innovations into products and solutions that can be applied in real business contexts. The partnership between MSRA and OOCL demonstrates our strong progress in revolutionizing the shipping industry.”

http://gcaptain.com/oocl-and-microsoft-to-develop-artificial-intelligence-applications-for-the-shipping-industry/


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AGelbert

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Re: Money
« Reply #355 on: April 26, 2018, 06:10:01 pm »
Written by Michael Lebowitz | Apr, 25, 2018

The following article was originally a PowerPoint presentation that highlights several aspects of recent price movements across assets classes and within equity industry sectors. Many investors are unfamiliar with these relationships and their importance. While the current correction may prove only to be a speed bump on the way to higher prices, close inspection of asset class and security interactions often hold important clues about the future. The information contained in these pages argues for caution.



Nowhere to Hide

The messages from shifting cross asset and S&P 500 sector correlations

Why Correlations Matter

Correlation is a statistical measure that quantifies the relationship between two financial assets or securities. A correlation of +1.0 is perfect, meaning the two securities or assets move one-for-one with each other. A correlation of -1.0 means they move exactly opposite of each other. As correlations move away from +/- 1.0 the relationship weakens. A correlation of zero quantitatively implies no relationship in the movement between the two instruments.

Correlations between and within asset classes plays an integral role in portfolio management. From a big picture perspective, changing correlations can be a signal that broader market trends are changing. Investors may reduce risk during such periods. Also of importance, changing correlations may increase or decrease the value of “hedges” within a portfolio. For instance, investors tend to assume they are taking a more defensive posture moving technology to utility stocks, or from stocks to bonds when they sense a downturn coming. While such trades have been effective in the past, correlations allow us to observe changes and develop opinions about the future.

The following charts and notes provide recent and historical context on how correlations have changed since the equity market turned lower in late January. Whether these changes turn out to be a dependable warning of trend change, or a multi-month anomaly, is unknown. What is known is that the market is not behaving as it has for the last few years and investors should pay close attention to correlations for more market insight.

Under Appreciated Price Action


This graph, courtesy of Goldman Sachs, shows how correlations between S&P 500 stocks have increased at a rate greater than anytime in the last 40 years except 1987.

Cross Asset Correlations



S&P 500/UST Correlation




Given the popularity of formal and informal risk parity strategies, this graph showing the well below average correlation of the S&P 500 versus 10 year UST yields should be of vital concern if this equity sell-off continues and the correlation remains low.

S&P 500 Sector Correlations


To further highlight the uniqueness of current sector correlations versus the S&P 500, this graph compares the current period (green dots) versus the prior year (orange squares) and the prior 15 years (gray triangles).


Something is different this time



This graph serves as a reminder that passive investing has grown significantly over the past 10 years. In our opinion this popularity will play a role in making it more likely that correlations between asset classes and sectors will behave differently in the next downturn than they have in the past. As such alternative hedging strategies should be considered now.

Conclusions

• Passive funds and strategies have increased the likelihood that future correlations between asset classes and the S&P 500 and its constituents are higher

• Equity and fixed income correlations have increased recently, rendering fixed income hedges for equities not as dependable

• Gold and commodities as measured by the CRB index have also not been as good an equity hedge as in the past

• Long equity volatility (VIX) has thus far proven a good ballast for stock and fixed income hedging

• Traditional safety, low beta, equity sectors have been well correlated to other sectors and the equity market as a whole

• Higher beta equity indexes (Russel 2k and the NASDAQ) have moved nearly perfectly in line with the S&P 500

• It is too early to tell if the market is topping or just taking a breather, but the signals discussed in this article and others we did not highlight, should be taken seriously

Michael Lebowitz, CFA

https://realinvestmentadvice.com/nowhere-to-hide/



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AGelbert

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Re: Money
« Reply #356 on: May 02, 2018, 05:51:20 pm »
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Re: Money
« Reply #357 on: May 08, 2018, 02:28:55 pm »
Quote
“Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.” Irving Fisher 1929.

An earlier neoclassical economist believed in price discovery, stable equilibriums and the rational decisions of market participants, and what the neoclassical economist believes about the markets means can’t even imagine there could be a bubble.

The two elements of neoclassical economics that come together to cause financial crises.

1. It doesn’t consider debt


2. It holds a set of beliefs about markets where they represent the rational decisions of market participants; they reach stable equilibriums and the valuations represent real wealth.

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Re: Money
« Reply #358 on: May 09, 2018, 05:11:04 pm »


The Rise of Finance and the Fall of American Business – RAI with Rana Foroohar (1/6)

May 9, 2018

On Reality Asserts Itself, Ms. Foroohar says financialization delivers stagnant wages, inequality and economic crisis; the Financial Times columnist and author of “Makers and Takers” says the financial sector 🦀 represents only 7 percent of the U.S. economy, but takes around 25 percent of all corporate profit while creating only 4 percent of all jobs – with host Paul Jay

Video and Transcript:

https://therealnews.com/stories/rise-finance-fall-american-business

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Re: Money
« Reply #359 on: May 11, 2018, 05:52:39 pm »


More Vessels Carrying U.S. Sorghum to China Switch Destinations

May 10, 2018 by Reuters

bulk carrier By Lukasz Z / Shutterstock

SNIPPET:

BEIJING, May 10 (Reuters) – Three ships carrying livestock feed grain, sorghum, from the U.S. to China switched their destinations on Thursday to Japan and South Korea, according to Thomson Reuters Eikon ship tracking data, after Beijing hit imports with hefty anti-dumping deposits.

Full article:

http://gcaptain.com/more-vessels-carrying-u-s-sorghum-to-china-switch-destinations/
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