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Author Topic: You will have to pick a side. There is no longer Room for Procrastination  (Read 3637 times)

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AGelbert

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Grace,
I just cooked up this idea to get people on board with the big push for 100% Renewable energy. Do you think it might catch on? If it does, there are T-shirts, sweat shirts, bumper stickers, posters, etc. that people can make to convince people that this is the way forward.


This poor man cried, and the Lord heard him, and saved him out of all his troubles.. -- Psalm 34:6

Grace Adams

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I don't like coffee and don't drink it.  On my budget I buy hardly anything.  I am very much NOT a salesperson--no talent whatsoever for sales.  I feel the mug looks about as good as plastic coffee mugs in general.   I wish some organization sort of like 350.org would -- instead of just soliciting donations for street theater -- sell in honor donation announcement cards with a choice of e-card or snail-mail post-card and choice of some coal as mineral rights or being guaranteed that the donation would go to donor's choice of two or more kinds of renewable energy.  Care2 has a large assortment of cute e-cards for various occasions, mostly free for members to send.  I like the idea of combining a donation towards something that would actually do some good like buying fossil fuel as mineral rights to hold it off the market or buying some sort of renewable energy equipment to generate renewable electric power to help the poor either here or in the third world with an e-card that both entertains and informs the recipient about the issues.  Maybe that is because I have been volunteering at a non-profit doing back office clerical work mostly for the person in charge of fundraising and they accept in honor and in memory donations and have a fairly nice looking copy of their logo with an appropriate greeting printed on the back of the letter informing the person honored that the donor has donated some money to the organization in their honor.

 

AGelbert

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Grace,
I hear you and applaud your volunteering. I don't plan to sell coffee mugs.  ;D I'm just trying to get some way of putting (AND KEEPING) the pressing need for a 100% Renewable Energy Transition in the public eye. Remember that the fossil fuelers will always throw criticism of ANY industrial society product like a coffee mug or sweatshirt or whatever at us. Of course any product that pushes 100% renewable energy must be 100% recycleable and not harm the biosphere; that goes without saying.

You see, I am keenly aware of the tremendous power of advertising. It was used to make people smoke cigarettes, consume gobs of fossil fuels and buy into to the throw away, consumerist, waste based society that big business and the fossil fuel industry wanted with their planned obsolescence "business (planet trashing) model". I have studied the late nineteenth and early 20th century. Most of the truth about what they did and how they did it is out there but is NOT taught in the grade and high school history books. That's part of the reason I have this forum.

Well, advertising is a tool that has been used to harm the biosphere and make a few conscience free predators very rich. Advertising WORKS! That doesn't make the tool itself evil. That same tool, through its great power of persuasion, can be used to get us OFF of fossil and nuclear poisons. We are herd animals. Those of us that want a viable biosphere just need to figure out how to get that herd moving in the right direction.

We can do this as an adjunct to the kind of very valuable work you and people like you do in volunteering. I am pushing 70 and have a dual chamber pace maker. I can't go out there and rock and roll to change the world. BUT, I can write and put the positive, beautiful future we can obtain through renewable energy in people's minds with posters and whatnot. Graphics are a very important part of internet communication. It's part of our tool chest to bring positive change.

As to getting people to donate, I agree it is a good thing to do. However, I want to get people to stop our government from stealing from us. Here we are, "donating" 24/7 through fossil fuel and nuclear power plant subsidies of all kinds for WHAT!!? By reminding people of this day in day out, people, (most of whom are living hand to mouth and just go on a guilt trip when you ask them to donate because they are having enough trouble feeding their families as it is in our fascist oligarchical corporate state) see immediate value in doing SOMETHING they can do right away to change the planet destroying paradigm we are in. They will then start giving more importance to environmental issues in elections and at the workplace instead of fighting about wedge issues deliberately put out there to confuse and divide the public.

There is storm going on. Advertising is one the ports in that storm. Donations are good, but that will not stop the oligarchs; only massive rejection of their profit over planet policies will.

Do you drink tea? A tea mug works too!  ;D
This poor man cried, and the Lord heard him, and saved him out of all his troubles.. -- Psalm 34:6

AGelbert

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Grace,
I forgot to mention that 350.org is doing some creative fundraising. They set up a Climate Victory (Creatve Action Network) section based on a WWII type motif and asked people to draw posters and submit them. I'm not and artist but I sent in two posters. They sell them for $26 each and promise to pay the "artist" about $8. I'm not trying to sell you one!  ;D You can print the smaller versions from the gallery here free if they suit your fancy. You can also upload anything you want to the gallery, by the way. 

If you want see the way posters are advertised by Climate Victory, just go here (these are links to my two posters).
http://thecreativeactionnetwork.com/10540
http://thecreativeactionnetwork.com/10532

There are many excellent posters (that put mine to shame  :-[) from real artists there pushing Climate Victory. They also have art  for fighting pollution and other important social subjects. Check them out if you haven't done so.
This poor man cried, and the Lord heard him, and saved him out of all his troubles.. -- Psalm 34:6

AGelbert

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This poor man cried, and the Lord heard him, and saved him out of all his troubles.. -- Psalm 34:6

AGelbert

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An interesting and inspiring comment by one who signed the  petition to Demand Liberty From Fossil Fuels Through 100% Renewable Energy WWII Style Effort. Oh that many who call themselves Christians who don't believe in evolution were this Christian in their actual mindset and behavior!

This man may not believe in God but to me he is a man of God!

 


Mr. Ferdinand Puttinger, Austria

Jun 16, 18:29

# 32

Please Let`s be AWARE: At present our AGE of exciting scientific discoveries is opening to us the unbelievable view on amazing interrelations between the complex appearances of whole evolution since big bang, from atomic properties to dimensions of boundless universe, but we HUMANS want to give preferences to commercial-driven short-dated and destructive influences, which will change eart`s face irreversible!

This is an enormous SELFISH and self-inflicted behavior, because comming generations will never more have the chance to see the unharmed diversity of nature`s uniqueness. If we still prefer to be focused mainly on ongoing excessive economic track, we will always AGAIN come to the same frustrating conclusion that we don`t really move forward to future`s urgently needed solutions!

AND It`s the most Appaling witness of Mankind`s incredible DULLNESS which appears as Paranoiac Schizophrenia Behavior of Everyone: We applaud loudly when sciences have found some indications of life in archaeological discoveries on other planets, but we Humans want to continue destroying stubbornly our wonderful multifarious & precious EARTH only for selfish whims of greedy & short dated economic interests.

Why is sophisticated Mankind not able to interrupt this strange behavior by aid of Politics & Politicians? Politicians should not only promise to strive for enduring environmental CHANGE at each election. They should finally indeed implement effectively Measures for promised CHANGE!

Comprehensive Technical Equipement for Global realisation of GREEN economics is already available at promising competitive Level. Therefore it`s time for CHANGE if Humans want to SURVIVE, because nature is reflecting already Human`s thoughtless behaviour in an unfavorable reaction to compensate our FATEFUL influence, what will limit the scope considerable for our greedy lifestyle and therefore also for economic`s generous revenues in near future!

AND WHY is mankind not able to accept that he is only part of Evolution and Not it`s RULER? Up to now science has revealed unimaginable interrelations for deeper Insights into viewable and invisible kinds of Existences in whole Universe. Not only to get amazing Knowledge about these existences, but also to widen our cognition for being able to Perceive our Marginal Role in this Universe.

We should learn to be DEVOTED into our marginal being in contrast to overwhelming and generous appearance of unique Universe. Being Thankful and Compassionate to all beings means to recognise our essential Relatedness to all forms of appearances in Universe, but specially to those of our precious Earth.

And practising Devotion to our marginal being could make us really Great and being generous to all Nature`s Creatures. This devotion could change us to a New Mental existence, feeling Spiritual Kinship to nature`s beings, what is finally everything what Universe has created since its Big Bang. To be Honestly Thankful for all being`s existence let us feel Pure relationship to all Universe`s appearances and creates desire for treating them Carefully. Awareness of Sentient beings evolved in Dialog with Universe`s appearances and relies for its education into individual being`s Consciousness furthermore on essential Stimulus of ambient outside world.

Therefore our relationship to all Universe`s appearances is evident. If we are tasting our being with all our precious Senses and being Thankful for this Great Gift, we really practise truthful Devotion and want no more longer ask ourselves how great is our role in the face of boundless Universe. This means being Aware of our Awareness and creates Loving Attitude. Such a mental attitude wants let also disappear borders of Religious Denominations. INDEED whole Humankind belongs to one and Universal Spirit of LOVE and COMPASSION, so Let us Be compassionate and give Love to all Nature`s Creatures.

Or in other Words & More Clearly: We should Not let RULE our EGO, because Ego based Behavior cannot be satisfied and wants finally destroy its environment only for short moments of feeling Saturated!

Thank you for your worthy Attention & Efforts. Kindest regards, AUSTRIA / Europe.

Thank you Mr. Puttinger, for making the world a better place!



This poor man cried, and the Lord heard him, and saved him out of all his troubles.. -- Psalm 34:6

AGelbert

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News from yours truly! I am now an "artist"! 

I can hardly wait ( LOL!) for all the "constructive criticism" cautioning me not to quit my day job...  ;)

  I'm retired so I can't get fired!    ;D

At any rate, it's nice to see one of my posters is on the "recommended list". 

 

And today I submitted my third "art work"  ;D in the service of Future Generations.

Drawing the faces of babies is HARD! I spent a full two weeks on those simple faces! The baby girl looks like she has gray hair because of the resolution but in the proper poster resolution (5400 by 3600 pixels) it looks blonde so don't claim I am drawing old ladies! The posters are meant to be bold and simple so I did not get into various facial details and multiple shading for effect. Hey, I'm trying to push Climate Victory through Renewable Energy, not paint the Sistene chapel roof, ya know! 

I'll get better. I promise! 

Who knows, I might even make a little money.

And if I do (I know, BIG IF!  :() Just remember you knew me when I was "undiscovered".  ;D


This poor man cried, and the Lord heard him, and saved him out of all his troubles.. -- Psalm 34:6


AGelbert

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HEBREW NEW TESTAMENT STUDIES   
 
'The camel and the eye of the needle', Matthew 19:24, Mark 10:25, Luke 18:25

Just where is that gate in Jerusalem?   ??? "It is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle, than for a rich man to enter into the kingdom of God." (Matthew 19:24)

For the last two centuries it has been common teaching in Sunday School that there is a gate in Jerusalem called the eye of the needle through which a camel could not pass unless it stooped and first had all its baggage first removed.

After dark, when the main gates were shut, travellers or merchants would have to use this smaller gate, through which the camel could only enter unencumbered and crawling on its knees! Great sermon material  ;D, with the parallels of coming to God on our knees without all our baggage. A lovely story and an excellent parable for preaching but unfortunately unfounded! From at least the 15th century, and possibly as early as the 9th but not earlier, this story has been put forth, however, there is no evidence for such a gate, nor record of reprimand of the architect who may have forgotten to make a gate big enough for the camel and rider to pass through unhindered.

Variations on this theme include that of ancient inns having small entrances to thwart thieves, or the story of an old mountain pass known as the "eye of the needle", so narrow that merchants would have to dismount from their camels and were thus easier prey for brigands lying in wait.

Mangled Greek maybe?

There are some differences in the transmitted Greek. The needle in Matthew and Mark is a rafic. In Luke it is a belone. But both are synonyms for needles used in sewing, but Luke's is more likely to be used by a surgeon than a seamstress.

Another possible solution comes from the possibility of a Greek misprint. The suggestion is that the Greek word kamilos ('camel') should really be kamźlos, meaning 'cable, rope', as some late New Testament manuscripts1 actually have here. Hence it is easier to thread a needle with a rope rather than a strand of cotton than for a rich man to enter the kingdom. A neat but unnecessary solution!

A variation on all of the above is that the needle was a 6 inch carpet needle and the rope was made of camel hair- but this is again clutching at straws or camel hair, and is an unnecessary emendation.

Makes sense in Aramaic

An alternative linguistic explanation is taken from George M Lamsa's Syriac-Aramaic Peshitta translation2 which has the word 'rope' in the main text but a footnote on Matthew 19:24 which states that the Aramaic word gamla means rope and camel, possibly because the ropes were made from camel hair. Evidence for this also comes from the 10th century Aramaic lexicographer Mar Bahlul who gives the meaning as a "a large rope used to bind ships". (cf. http://www.aramaicnt.org/HTML/LUKE/evidences/Camel.html)

Some have even suggested a pun in Aramaic between camel and gnat or louse from the Aramaic kalma 'vermin, louse'.

Just as the apocryphal Acts of Peter and Andrew3 refers the saying to a literal camel and needle, so we are not meant to reason away the apparent difficulty of getting a camel through a needle's eye. For the difficulty is not apparent it is real, and not be solved by textual trickery but by taking the ludicrous language at face value.


What we have instead then, I believe, is a beautiful Hebrew hyperbole, as in the tree sticking out of one's eye whilst one is removing a speck in another's eye!
Indeed, Jewish Talmudic literature uses a similar aphorism about an elephant passing through the eye of a needle as a figure of speech implying the unlikely or impossible:
"They do not show a man a palm tree of gold, nor an elephant going through the eye of a needle."4


This first instance concerned dreams and their interpretation and suggested that men only dream that which is natural or possible, not that which is unlikely ever to have occurred to them.
"… who can make an elephant pass through the eye of a needle."5
In this case, the illustration concerns a dispute between two rabbis, one of whom suggests that the other is speaking "things which are impossible".

The camel was the largest animal seen regularly in Israel, whereas in regions where the Babylonian Talmud was written, the elephant was the biggest animal. Thus the aphorism is culturally translated from a camel to an elephant in regions outside of Israel.

The aim is not, then, to explain away the paradox and make the needle a huge carpet needle for, elsewhere, the Jewish writings use the "eye of the needle" as a picture of a very small place, "A needle's eye is not too narrow for two friends, but the world is not wide enough for two enemies."6 . The ludicrous contrast between the small size of the needle's eye and the largest indigenous animal is to be preserved for its very improbability.

Jesus' hearers believed that wealth and prosperity were a sign of God's blessing (cf. Leviticus and Deuteronomy). So their incredulity is more along the lines that, "if the rich, who must be seen as righteous by God by dint of their evident blessing, can't be saved, who can be?". Later Christians have turned this around to portray wealth as a hindrance to salvation, which it can be – but no more so than many other things, when the message is that salvation is impossible for all men for it comes from God alone.

But beyond impossibility is possibility with God for, elsewhere, a Jewish midrash records:
"The Holy One said, open for me a door as big as a needle's eye and I will open for you a door through which may enter tents and [camels?]"7
In other words God only needs the sinner to open up just a crack for him and God will come pouring in and set up room for an oasis. God only needs a 'foot in the door', so to speak.


This is similar to the Talmudic use of two Hebrew letters, one which represents God holiness ('Q' Qoph, as in qadōsh 'holy') and another representing evil ('R' Resh, as in ra' 'evil'), in a story told for the purpose of teaching the Hebrew alphabet and Jewish morals. It is said that 'q' has a separated opening in order that should 'r' repent he may enter into God's holiness through the small opening.

A brief survey of sermons or search on the Internet reveals how many perpetuate the myth of the small gate in Jerusalem. Victorian travellers to the Holy Land even claim to have been shown it. The inaccuracy may appear harmless but it is neither good scholarship nor good exposition. The exaggerated and contrasted size is deliberate and is not an overt judgement on riches or poverty. Jesus reflects on how hard it often is for the rich to enter the kingdom of God. The riches are a distraction and hard to share if one is too attached to them. The disciples' incredulity is that if even the rich cannot be saved, who can? But the verdict is that even the poor, not only the rich, will find it impossible to save themselves – but with God all things are possible.  

Notes
Mainly 11th century or later, and in one 9th/10th century manuscript, however all early manuscripts and quotations in the church fathers from the 3rd through to the 8th centuries have 'camel' not 'rope'.
The New Testament according to the Eastern Text, George M Lamsa, 1940, p.xxiv and note on Matthew 19:24.
"13 There was a rich man named Onesiphorus who said: If I believe, shall I be able to do wonders? Andrew said: Yes, if you forsake your wife and all your possessions. He was angry and put his garment about Andrew's neck and began to beat him, saying: You are a wizard, why should I do so? 14 Peter saw it and told him to leave off. He said: I see you are wiser than he. What do you say? Peter said: I tell you this: it is easier for a camel to go through a needle's eye than for a rich man to enter the kingdom of God. Onesiphorus was yet more angry and took his garment off Andrew's neck and cast it on Peter's and haled him along, saying: You are worse than the other. If you show me this sign, I and the whole city will believe but if not you shall be punished. 15 Peter was troubled and stood and prayed: Lord, help us at this hour, for thou hast entrapped us by thy words. 16 The Saviour appeared in the form of a boy of twelve years, wearing a linen garment 'smooth within and without', and said; Fear not: let the needle and the camel be brought. There was a huckster in the town who had been converted by Philip; and he heard of it, and looked for a needle with a large eye, but Peter said: Nothing is impossible with God rather bring a needle with a small eye. 17 When it was brought, Peter saw a camel coming and stuck the needle in the ground and cried: In the name of Jesus Christ crucified under Pontius Pilate I command thee, camel, to go through the eye of the needle. The eye opened like a gate and the camel passed through; and yet again, at Peter's bidding. 18 Onesiphorus said: You are a great sorcerer: but I shall not believe unless I may send for a needle and a camel. And he said secretly to a servant: Bring a camel and a needle, and find a defiled woman and some swine's flesh and bring them too. And Peter heard it in the spirit and said: O slow to believe, bring your camel and woman and needle and flesh. 19 When they were brought Peter stuck the needle in the ground, with the flesh, the woman was on the camel. He commanded it as before, and the camel went through, and back again. 20 Onesiphorus cried out, convinced and said: Listen. I have lands and vineyards and 27 litrae of gold and 50 of silver, and many slaves: I will give my goods to the poor and free my slaves if I may do a wonders like you. Peter said: If you believe, you shall. 21 Yet he was afraid he might not be able, because he was not baptized, but a voice came: Let him do what he will. So Onesiphorus stood before the needle and camel and commanded it to go through and it went as far as the neck and stopped. And he asked why. 'Because you are not yet baptized.' He was content, and the apostles went to his house, and 1,000 souls were baptized that night." (Acts of Peter and Andrew vv.14-21, The Apocryphal New Testament, M R James, Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1924, p459).
Babylonian Talmud, Berakoth, 55b
Babylonian Talmud, Baba Mezi'a, 38b
Source not traced but cf. Midrash Rabbah, Genesis 1.3
Midrash Rabbah, The Song of Songs, 5.3; cf. Pesiqta R., 15, ed. Friedmann, p.70a; Soncino Zohar, Vayikra 3, p95a

http://www.biblicalhebrew.com/nt/camelneedle.htm
This poor man cried, and the Lord heard him, and saved him out of all his troubles.. -- Psalm 34:6

AGelbert

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The Project Gutenberg EBook of Egocentric Orbit, by John Cory


This eBook is for the use of anyone anywhere at no cost and with
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Title: Egocentric Orbit

Author: John Cory

Illustrator: Gardner

Release Date: January 1, 2008 [EBook #24101]

Language: English

Character set encoding: ISO-8859-1

*** START OF THIS PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK EGOCENTRIC ORBIT ***


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EGOCENTRIC ORBIT

It took a long time for human beings to accept that our little piece of meteoric rubble wasn't the exact and absolute center of the Universe. It does appear that way, doesn't it? It may not take so long for a spaceman to learn ...


Illustrated by Gardner

By JOHN CORY

Near the end of his fifteenth orbit as Greenland slipped by noiselessly below, he made the routine measurements that tested the operation of his space capsule and checked the automatic instruments which would transmit their stored data to Earth on his next pass over Control. Everything normal; all mechanical devices were operating perfectly.

This information didn't surprise him, in fact, he really didn't even think about it. The previous orbits and the long simulated flights on Earth during training had made such checks routine and perfect results expected. The capsules were developed by exhaustive testing both on the ground and as empty satellites before entrusting them to carry animals and then the first human.

He returned to contemplation of the panorama passing below and above, although as he noted idly, above and below had lost some of their usual meaning. Since his capsule, like all heavenly bodies, was stable in position with respect to the entire universe and, thanks to Sir Isaac Newton and his laws, never changed, the Earth and the stars alternated over his head during each orbit. "Up" now meant whatever was in the direction of his head. He remembered that even during his initial orbit when the Earth first appeared overhead he accepted the fact as normal. He wondered if the other two had accepted it as easily.

For there had been two men hurled into orbit before he ventured into space. Two others who had also passed the rigorous three-year training period and were selected on the basis of over-all performance to precede him. He had known them both well and wondered again what had happened on their flights. Of course, they had both returned, depending upon what your definition of return was. The capsules in which they had ventured beyond Earth had returned them living. But this was to be expected, for even the considerable hazards of descent through the atmosphere and the terrible heating which occurred were successfully surmounted by the capsule.

Naturally, it had not been expected that the satellites would have to be brought down by command from the ground. But this, too, was part of the careful planning—radio control of the retro-rockets that move the satellite out of orbit by reducing its velocity. Of course, ground control was to be used only if the astronaut failed to ignite the retro-rockets himself. He remembered everyone's surprise and relief when the first capsule was recovered and its occupant found to be alive. They had assumed that in spite of all precautions he was dead because he had not fired the rockets on the fiftieth orbit and it was necessary to bring him down on the sixty-fifth.

Recovery alive only partially solved the mystery, for the rescuers and all others were met by a haughty, stony silence from the occupant. Batteries of tests confirmed an early diagnosis: complete and utter withdrawal; absolute refusal to communicate. Therapy was unsuccessful.


The second attempt was similar in most respects, except that command return was made on the thirty-first orbit after the astronaut's failure to de-orbit at the end of the thirtieth. His incoherent babble of moons, stars, and worlds was no more helpful than the first.

Test after test confirmed that no obvious organic damage had been incurred by exposure outside of the Earth's protective atmosphere. Biopsy of even selected brain tissues seemed to show that microscopic cellular changes due to prolonged weightlessness or primary cosmic-ray bombardment, which had been suggested by some authorities, were unimportant. Somewhat reluctantly, it was decided to repeat the experiment a third time.

The launching was uneventful. He was sent into space with the precision he expected. The experience was exhilarating and, although he had anticipated each event in advance, he could not possibly have foreseen the overpowering feeling that came over him. Weightlessness he had experienced for brief periods during training, but nothing could match the heady impression of continuous freedom from gravity.

Earth passing overhead was also to be expected from the simple laws of celestial mechanics but his feeling as he watched it now was inexpressible. It occurred to him that perhaps this was indeed why he was here, because he could appreciate such experiences best. He had been told the stars would be bright, unblinking, and an infinitude in extent, but could mere descriptions or photographs convey the true seeing?

On his twenty-first orbit he completed his overseeing the entire surface of the planet in daylight. He had seen more of Earth than anyone able to tell about it, but only he had the true feeling of it. The continents were clearly visible, as were the oceans and both polar ice caps. The shapes were familiar but in only a remote way. A vague indistinctness borne of distance served to modify the outlines and he alone was seeing and understanding. On the dark side of the planet large cities were marked by indistinct light areas which paled to insignificance compared to the stars and his sun.

He speculated about the others who had only briefly experienced these sights. Undoubtedly they weren't as capable of fully grasping or appreciating any of these things as he was. It was quite clear that no one else but he could encompass the towering feeling of power and importance generated by being alone in the Universe.

At the end of the twenty-fifth orbit he disabled the radio control of the retro-rockets and sat back with satisfaction to await the next circuit of his Earth around Him.

THE END

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[/i]
This poor man cried, and the Lord heard him, and saved him out of all his troubles.. -- Psalm 34:6

alan2102

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I got banned over at DD.

I'm picking up where we left off over there, replying to agelbert.

Much of this is directed to Ashvin, and of course Ashvin can speak for himself. I am interjecting some comments of my own, anyway. Agelbert makes reference to me repeatedly, so I wish to speak to those points.

Do you see, Ashvin, that the logic you use to assert that Alan's "point" about "exaggerating extreme outcomes" (that's the proper phrase, old chum - yeah it does equal yelling - that's what you do when your species is genuinely threatened) is part of YOUR confirmation bias?
Interesting idea. Why don't you argue for it? CONVINCE us.

You consistently ignore the reality of the tsunami of propaganda out there that tells people everything is hunky dory. A long time ago, in a galaxy far, far away, Ashvin wrote an excellent article about how FUBAR things were/are.  I do believe Ashvin wrote that article out of a sense of frustration about how people REFUSED to see how they were being USED to further a morally depraved status quo fostered by TPTB. He was, and is, right.
THAT morally depraved status quo didn't just happen. Social Darwinism was, and is at the heart of it, is it not? Alan doesn't go for that. Alan doesn't DO "judgements" as to ethical or not. Alan, unfortunately supported by GO, prefers to avoid admitting the mere possibility that the ROOT of our FUBAR situation is moral depravity.
Why do you say that, AG? I believe that the root of our situation (leaving aside FUBAR for a moment) is spiritual in nature, including moral depravity, and not material. I said that up thread at DD. Did you see that post of mine? I was replying to someone else, can't remember who.

Perhaps GO hasn't seen that. I hope GO gets that now. Alan refuses to think things are FUBAR. He says that is "exaggerating extreme outcomes".
Ah, the FUBAR issue. Yes, I think that is an exaggeration. FUBAR = (literally) **** Up BEYOND ALL REPAIR. And I don't believe that is the case. I don't believe that YOU believe that is the case either, AG. If you believed that, then you would not bother trying at all. No one would. If it truly is Beyond All Repair, then action is futile.

Taking a step back from literal: I don't believe things are as bad as you think, true. It is tough to discuss this because at the end of the day we all have to size things up as best we can and make a GUESS (and it is a GUESS) as to likely outcomes, general probabilities, and so on. My sizing up happens to land in a different place than  yours.

Of course your piece about our FUBAR society did not define FUBAR effects in the biosphere. It was an article on economics. But really, do you think you can ignore the cause and effect chain that leads from moral depravity to extreme environmental degradation? You can't. You can, and probably will  ::), argue things haven't gotten that bad yet, and Alan is merely warning against "irrational and sensationalist hyperbole".
No, he isn't doing that. He is bathing in that river in Egypt. WHY? Because he has an a priori (faulty) logical premise, as does GO, that there is no massive and powerful organized element out there with the Means, Motive and Opportunity to put people to sleep about how FUBAR things are. So do you. That's called endowment bias.
Interesting point about endowment bias. You will have to speak in more detail to convince me of the relevance of that.

As for the "powerful organized element" seeking to put people to sleep about the gravity of things: sounds plausible. Here again, though, you will have to speak in more detail and convince me, not just assert the thing. And btw you accuse me of having a "faulty logical premise" that such as thing does not exist, whereas the truth is that I have no such premise. I am open to the idea. You've got to persuade me, though, not merely assert and make accusations.

The bottom line in the "point" Alan allegedly has is that near term human extinction (N.T.H.E.) is a LOW to NO probability event. This is the way you and GO see it too, is it not?
If you or Alan or GO could be convinced that  N.T.H.E. is NOT a LOW to NO probability event, I think your outlook on the discourse here would change.
Certainly would. Go ahead, convince us.

UB, our resident psychiatrist, can tell us HOW our PERCEPTION of what those probabilities are TILTS our world view and endowment bias.
Psychiatrist!? I would be amazed if he made it through Jr high school.

FURTHERMORE, RE and Surly, experts in the propaganda techniques they fight daily, can tell us how WELL FUNDED, REPETITIVE, CREDIBLE SOUNDING propaganda hitting people from all sides is INSTRUMENTAL in distorting the probability of this, that or the other event occurring.
From what I can see, they are not experts in anything, and are in fact rather lame victims of media programming and brainwashing, while fancying themselves as having special insight into such things.

I think this is ALL ABOUT endowment bias
FINE. THEN CONVINCE US.

which is intimately connected to world view, which is influenced by a tsunami of propaganda lies about how hunky dory things are, which leads people to descend into denial of the actual probability of  N.T.H.E., which leads them descend into derision and mockery of those seeking to warn Homo Saps, which serves the purpose of the psychos that created (and continue to exacerbate) the present mess.
The point about "derision and mockery" is presumably directed at me. Go ahead and tell me SPECIFICALLY where I was derisive and mocking inappropriately, toward things that did not deserve to be derided and mocked. Please be SPECIFIC, either quoting my words and/or providing a specific link to my words.

It is expected that, if you believe a threat is over represented, you believe the person doing so is a fool or has some agenda. That's Alan's accusation of RE. I claim that Alan is being duped by TPTB.
No, you're wrong with respect to my critique of RE. My critique of RE is spot on. He trawls the news sites looking for confirmation of his collapse of industrial civilization bias -- and of course he finds it in abundance. News sites are  MADE for fools like him. They make it EASY to do what he does. I could say much more but I will leave it at that for now.

You, GO, Alan and anyone else duped by TPTB is a tool used to DELAY the realization that drastic measures are required to LOWER the present HIGH probability of N.T.H.E.
All right, all right, we hear you. But you have to convince, not just assert.

MY premise, the one the Ashvin of the FUBAR article partially shared, is that the NUMBER assigning N.T.H.E. to a low or NO probability status is a function of a massive propaganda effort.
And THAT, is why Alan is hypocritical in the extreme to accuse RE of hyperbole and sensationalism while simultaneously IGNORING the mens rea 'go back to sleep' propaganda of TPTB.
You're totally wrong about this. RE's addiction to anecdotal news stories, using them to justify his doomeristic outlook, is laughable and pathetic, for reasons I made clear up thread (original DD thread). News stories are TERRIBLY misleading, as far as the big and long-term picture goes. You cannot possibly form an accurate picture of megatrends in the world from daily news stories, in isolation. You might be able to form an accurate picture from an analysis of news stories over many years or decades, but that is not what RE does. You know what he does.

But maybe you are just saying that it does not matter if RE's news story fetish represents a valid way of learning about important long term social processes. Maybe you are saying that, if what RE is doing comports with your bias having to do with NTHE probability and so on, then it is OK. Is THAT what you are saying?

Alan

alan2102

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Oh btw AG: in a subsequent post at DD you wrote the text below, and I just want to say... BRAVO! DOUBLE BRAVO! Very well said and I could not agree more. And fwiw I have spent a LOT of time arguing this very point, at the hubbertsarms forum (circa 2009-10) and elsewhere. I am UTTERLY FED UP with the "overpopulation" bull****, which is misleading in the extreme, and worse. It is mean and cruel and anti-human, and MISSES (as you so well point out) the real locus of the problem, which is OVERCONSUMPTION BY THE AFFLUENT. Perhaps you caught in one of my posts up thread at DD my mention of Trainer's book "Abandon Affluence". The title says it all. I read it many years a go, and it had deep impact on me. He was right then (circa 1983), and he is right now. Excessive affluence is impelling us all toward environmental disasters.

Anyway, kudos for a very good passage and takedown of monsta's foolish post.

Quote

http://www.doomsteaddiner.net/forum/index.php/topic,811.msg85182.html#msg85182

agelbert wrote:

I go blue in the face every time Monsta brings up his "we are all to blame because of population overshoot" business. But at least he recognizes that there IS an existential threat, even if he has difficulties reading pie charts.

Anyone can see that if you CULL 80% of human population (ALL the poor and MOST of the middle class), you will not DENT the level of pollution being generated by the rest of Homo Sapdom. Monsta doesn't get that. He really thinks that all those dead people will convince the surviving predators to be nice to the environment.

And there is that Monsta's wet depopulation dream will solve our environmental problems, not simply because the polluting industry facts state otherwise, but because the morally challenged Predators 'R' US world view of the top 20% is at the ROOT of the degradation of democracy and the biosphere.

But Monsta will not go there. And he will not go there because, if he did, the whole population overshoot thing would be exposed for the scapegoating, blame the victim, ethics challenged rhetoric that it is.

NO, Monsta, all those high resource users will NOT use less resources because 80% of the population died.

THAT is because THAT 80% DOES NOT participate significantly  in the MARKET (see GDP fun and games) for all that industrial STUFF we produce in the piggy counties. the FACTORIES will NOT slow down to a sustainable biosphere 'roar' just because the bottom 80% get offed, as you seem to believe.

AGelbert

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Quote
I got banned over at DD.

I'm picking up where we left off over there, replying to agelbert.

Much of this is directed to Ashvin, and of course Ashvin can speak for himself. I am interjecting some comments of my own, anyway. Agelbert makes reference to me repeatedly, so I wish to speak to those points.

Quote from: agelbert on September 12, 2015, 04:50:32 pm
Do you see, Ashvin, that the logic you use to assert that Alan's "point" about "exaggerating extreme outcomes" (that's the proper phrase, old chum - yeah it does equal yelling - that's what you do when your species is genuinely threatened) is part of YOUR confirmation bias?

Interesting idea. Why don't you argue for it? CONVINCE us.

Quote from: agelbert on September 12, 2015, 04:50:32 pm
You consistently ignore the reality of the tsunami of propaganda out there that tells people everything is hunky dory. A long time ago, in a galaxy far, far away, Ashvin wrote an excellent article about how FUBAR things were/are.  I do believe Ashvin wrote that article out of a sense of frustration about how people REFUSED to see how they were being USED to further a morally depraved status quo fostered by TPTB. He was, and is, right.

THAT morally depraved status quo didn't just happen. Social Darwinism was, and is at the heart of it, is it not? Alan doesn't go for that. Alan doesn't DO "judgements" as to ethical or not. Alan, unfortunately supported by GO, prefers to avoid admitting the mere possibility that the ROOT of our FUBAR situation is moral depravity.

Why do you say that, AG? I believe that the root of our situation (leaving aside FUBAR for a moment) is spiritual in nature, including moral depravity, and not material. I said that up thread at DD. Did you see that post of mine? I was replying to someone else, can't remember who.

Quote from: agelbert on September 12, 2015, 04:50:32 pm
Perhaps GO hasn't seen that. I hope GO gets that now. Alan refuses to think things are FUBAR. He says that is "exaggerating extreme outcomes".

Ah, the FUBAR issue. Yes, I think that is an exaggeration. FUBAR = (literally) ****ed Up BEYOND ALL REPAIR. And I don't believe that is the case. I don't believe that YOU believe that is the case either, AG. If you believed that, then you would not bother trying at all. No one would. If it truly is Beyond All Repair, then action is futile.

Taking a step back from literal: I don't believe things are as bad as you think, true. It is tough to discuss this because at the end of the day we all have to size things up as best we can and make a GUESS (and it is a GUESS) as to likely outcomes, general probabilities, and so on. My sizing up happens to land in a different place than  yours.

Quote from: agelbert on September 12, 2015, 04:50:32 pm
Of course your piece about our FUBAR society did not define FUBAR effects in the biosphere. It was an article on economics. But really, do you think you can ignore the cause and effect chain that leads from moral depravity to extreme environmental degradation? You can't. You can, and probably will  ::), argue things haven't gotten that bad yet, and Alan is merely warning against "irrational and sensationalist hyperbole".

No, he isn't doing that. He is bathing in that river in Egypt. WHY? Because he has an a priori  (faulty) logical premise, as does GO, that there is no massive and powerful organized element out there with the Means, Motive and Opportunity to put people to sleep about how FUBAR things are. So do you. That's called endowment bias.

Interesting point about endowment bias. You will have to speak in more detail to convince me of the relevance of that.

As for the "powerful organized element" seeking to put people to sleep about the gravity of things: sounds plausible. Here again, though, you will have to speak in more detail and convince me, not just assert the thing. And btw you accuse me of having a "faulty logical premise" that such as thing does not exist, whereas the truth is that I have no such premise. I am open to the idea. You've got to persuade me, though, not merely assert and make accusations.


Quote from: agelbert on September 12, 2015, 04:50:32 pm
The bottom line in the "point" Alan allegedly has is that near term human extinction (N.T.H.E.) is a LOW to NO probability event. This is the way you and GO see it too, is it not?
If you or Alan or GO could be convinced that  N.T.H.E. is NOT a LOW to NO probability event, I think your outlook on the discourse here would change.

Certainly would. Go ahead, convince us.

Quote from: agelbert on September 12, 2015, 04:50:32 pm
UB, our resident psychiatrist, can tell us HOW our PERCEPTION of what those probabilities are TILTS our world view and endowment bias.


Psychiatrist!? I would be amazed if he made it through Jr high school.
Quote from: agelbert on September 12, 2015, 04:50:32 pm

FURTHERMORE, RE and Surly, experts in the propaganda techniques they fight daily, can tell us how WELL FUNDED, REPETITIVE, CREDIBLE SOUNDING propaganda hitting people from all sides is INSTRUMENTAL in distorting the probability of this, that or the other event occurring.

From what I can see, they are not experts in anything, and are in fact rather lame victims of media programming and brainwashing, while fancying themselves as having special insight into such things.

Quote from: agelbert on September 12, 2015, 04:50:32 pm
I think this is ALL ABOUT endowment bias

FINE. THEN CONVINCE US.

Quote from: agelbert on September 12, 2015, 04:50:32 pm
which is intimately connected to world view, which is influenced by a tsunami of propaganda lies about how hunky dory things are, which leads people to descend into denial of the actual probability of  N.T.H.E., which leads them descend into derision and mockery of those seeking to warn Homo Saps, which serves the purpose of the psychos that created (and continue to exacerbate) the present mess.

The point about "derision and mockery" is presumably directed at me. Go ahead and tell me SPECIFICALLY where I was derisive and mocking inappropriately, toward things that did not deserve to be derided and mocked. Please be SPECIFIC, either quoting my words and/or providing a specific link to my words.

Quote from: agelbert on September 12, 2015, 04:50:32 pm
It is expected that, if you believe a threat is over represented, you believe the person doing so is a fool or has some agenda. That's Alan's accusation of RE. I claim that Alan is being duped by TPTB.

No, you're wrong with respect to my critique of RE. My critique of RE is spot on. He trawls the news sites looking for confirmation of his collapse of industrial civilization bias -- and of course he finds it in abundance. News sites are  MADE for fools like him. They make it EASY to do what he does. I could say much more but I will leave it at that for now.

Quote from: agelbert on September 12, 2015, 04:50:32 pm
You, GO, Alan and anyone else duped by TPTB is a tool used to DELAY the realization that drastic measures are required to LOWER the present HIGH probability of N.T.H.E.

All right, all right, we hear you. But you have to convince, not just assert.

Quote from: agelbert on September 12, 2015, 04:50:32 pm
MY premise, the one the Ashvin of the FUBAR article partially shared, is that the NUMBER assigning N.T.H.E. to a low or NO probability status is a function of a massive propaganda effort.
And THAT, is why Alan is hypocritical in the extreme to accuse RE of hyperbole and sensationalism while simultaneously IGNORING the mens rea 'go back to sleep' propaganda of TPTB.

You're totally wrong about this. RE's addiction to anecdotal news stories, using them to justify his doomeristic outlook, is laughable and pathetic, for reasons I made clear up thread (original DD thread). News stories are TERRIBLY misleading, as far as the big and long-term picture goes. You cannot possibly form an accurate picture of megatrends in the world from daily news stories, in isolation. You might be able to form an accurate picture from an analysis of news stories over many years or decades, but that is not what RE does. You know what he does.

But maybe you are just saying that it does not matter if RE's news story fetish represents a valid way of learning about important long term social processes. Maybe you are saying that, if what RE is doing comports with your bias having to do with NTHE probability and so on, then it is OK. Is THAT what you are saying?

Alan

Excellent rebuttal! I stand corrected on some of my assumptions about your views. I will endeavor to be more nuanced and detailed in my presentation in order to convince you that my position, though it MIGHT very well be quixotic, is practical. We have time here and there is no avalanche of snark to cloud the debate.

I ran into this post today. I am posting it as a starting point in our debate. I'll get to the other stuff little by little.

I post this now because Google's actions here, when counterbalanced against all the bad stuff they are promoting, looks like green washing. I hate green washing. >:(

But I like goats!  ;D  So, I think what they are doing has merit.

Who Tends the Grounds around Google's Headquarters? 

Quote

Goats tend to the grounds around Google's headquarters in Mountain View, California instead of lawn mowers.

In an initiative to be more environmentally friendly and cut down on air pollution from gasoline-fueled lawn mowers, Google hires the services of a company called California Grazing, which supplies about 200 goats to Google. The animals spend about a week eating and fertilizing the grass in the fields outside Google’s headquarters.

According to Google, using goats instead of mowing is roughly the same cost, but the goats are more enjoyable for employees to watch, in addition to being a more green solution.

Agelbert NOTE: THAT is the kind of viable biosphere MATH that the MKings and his Empathy Deficit Disordered corporate predator BEAN COUNTERS do not understand.

Google is taking a page, discarded TOTALLY by the Wall Street Social Darwinist RELIGION, from Taylor's Theory of Management. That theory, now well over a century old, states that considering the welfare and happiness of employees is a sound and profitable business practice. The fact that it cannot be quantified on a balance sheet does NOT mean it is not superior to using "cheaper" polluting lawn mowers to mow the grass and "cheaper" fossil fuel based chemical fertilizers, instead of goat droppings, to feed the grass.

Viable Biosphere MATH is EMPATHY based cost/benefit math which is more profitable than Empathy Deficit Disordered Social Darwinist math.

The bottom line is that ANYTHING that brings DEATH is STUPID. Anything that breeds LIFE through cooperation, altruism and happiness is SMART. 

Quote

More about Google:

•Since 2010, Google has acquired an average of one new company per week, for a total of about 170, and spent over $28 billion US Dollars (USD) as of 2015. These include a clean energy startup, a drone company, and an artificial intelligence manufacturer.

•Approximately 200 different factors are taken into account for the Google search engine to determine what results to show users.

•There are an estimated 3 billion Google searches performed each day, for an annual total of over 1 trillion searches.

http://www.wisegeek.com/who-tends-the-grounds-around-googles-headquarters.htm

« Last Edit: September 13, 2015, 06:15:25 pm by AGelbert »
This poor man cried, and the Lord heard him, and saved him out of all his troubles.. -- Psalm 34:6

AGelbert

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Note: This forum is free. They punish me for that.  :(

They want me to pay for the Pro version so searches work right, gallery picture searches work, quotes aren't screwy, and I control what words that get censored and what words don't get censored.

I control none of that.  I'm stuck with things the way they are. I may be a Christian but I'm not prissy about language.  ;D The censor is weird here, You can write the word "bastard" but you can't write **** or **** (sh it or pi ss).
 
So, if you want the word " Fuc ked" to show, you have to put a space somewhere to get by big brother.  ;)

By the way, the "R" in the  FUBAR acronym stands for "Recognition", not "REPAIR", as you stated in caps.

I dare say that is difference with a distinction.  ;)

You might say I am arguing that all hope is lost, so why the picked knits? 

I'm sure you agree that believing an existential threat has a low probability is not equal to a sure thing.

What probability do you ascribe to N.T.H.E. (as I define Near Term Human Extinction below)? 

Please don't give me this answer: 

I want to make it clear right now that I firmly believe I will not witness it. I am pushing 70. I want to make it clear right now that I think a massive government (s) funded Viable Biosphere push of ten years duration (followed by a century of carbon NEGATIVE infrastructure and continuous bioremediation of degraded areas in the air, land and waters of the Earth) or less would delay the event horizon several decades and possibly prevent N,T.H.E. I believe that effort would give us a small chance, but not guarantee success.

I want to make it clear right know that I firmly believe that, if the above is not done, Homo SAPs born after the year 2000 will witness and suffer the extinction of the human species.

I want to make it clear that "extinction" doesn't mean there will be no humans left by the year 2200. I mean that the breeding pairs available will be insufficient to perpetuate the species. People will be born in 2070 when the FUBAR letter "R" changes from "Recognition" to "Repair". They will have a lonely existence. Maybe they will be able to dig up genetic diversity from dead people's DNA and start replenishing the species gene pool. In a 6 degree to 8 degree Centigrade average temperature increase atmosphere, I don't think that is likely. But they might make it to 2250 or so.

Do you want my date for ZERO Homo SAPS? I don't have one. Miracles can, and do, happen. My disagreement with you involves, though is certainly not limited to, your firm belief that a miracle is unnecessary and incremental measures will enable us to muddle along. I agree with you on every positive measure you wish to implement. It's the required scale and rapidity of implementation that we disagree on.

Let me organize my thoughts and reply to your post. Forgive me if I don't do the line by line thing consistently. I'm not trying to be less specific or wishy washy. I find that style to be a bit stilted and too often lacks overall context.

Ashvin uses it a lot to avoid big picture issues when a debate is present. It infuriates me when he does that because I KNOW he is using lawyer tactic fallacious debating techniques to "win" the debate.

That said, I don't think your line by line rebuttal of my statements is anything but an honest response. I just bring it to your attention so you will understand why it normally isn't my style, though I do use it from time to time.

The bottom line for me is to try to present my posts in a way that gives the most clarity to root positions. That way some common ground might be reached quicker and sparring on downstream issues can be avoided.

I'll try to be as specific as possible. 
This poor man cried, and the Lord heard him, and saved him out of all his troubles.. -- Psalm 34:6

alan2102

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In reply to agelbert: (the "quote" function does not work):

Quote
They want me to pay for the Pro version
Stop paying them. You don't need it.

Quote
What probability do you ascribe to N.T.H.E. (as I define Near Term Human Extinction below)?
Very small. Almost nil.  Say, .001%?

Quote
I want to make it clear that "extinction" doesn't mean there will be no humans left by the year 2200.
That's what I take it to mean. That's what "extinction" MEANS. Extinct = no more left.

Quote
Forgive me if I don't do the line by line thing consistently. I'm not trying to be less specific or wishy washy. I find that style to be a bit stilted and too often lacks overall context.
Use your preferred style. I like line by line because it exercises discipline and keeps the discussion on track. I find when people do not actually quote my words, they almost invariably take me to be saying all kinds of things that I am not saying.

....................

Of your readings about climate change, which were most compelling? Which of them convinced you that human extinction was even a clear possibility, much less likelihood? In other words: how did you become so extremely pessimistic?

I don't know enough about the climate issue. But I've been reading about it sporadically for 25+ years, and from everything I can gather, the scientists doing the analyses and projections are quite fallible, do not necessarily understand with such certainty the things they claim to understand, and cannot, in the end, be taken quite AS seriously as you seem to be taking them. Further, the scientists themselves are the least culpable in all this, being generally rather conservative and cautious. (Most of them have intellectual maturity sufficient to know that they ARE fallible, that they do NOT understand everything without possibility of error, and so on.) The people who come after the scientists -- the army of journalists, pundits, commentators, interpreters -- proceed to take the scientists' reports and present them with their own spin, their own tendency to exaggerate (in accord with whatever bias they have to begin with) and, often, their own overestimate of their own ability to KNOW -- i.e. overconfidence and over-certainty.

It is clear that climate change exists and is likely getting worse. It is likely that it will continue to get worse for a long time. HOW MUCH worse is very much in question, and what, SPECIFICALLY the implications will be of that worsening for humans and the biosphere is also very much in question -- and this is where the biases and overconfidence of which I just wrote begin to loom very large. I simply cannot embrace the rock-solid certainty being expressed by so many, including  you. In fact, I'll put it more strongly than that: those who are DEAD-CERTAIN about particular effects or outcomes are just crazy. It is not possible to be that certain, and at once sensible and intelligent. There's too much that we don't know, too many wildcards.

I speak as a science-observer of many years standing. I've seen theories get upended. I've seen new discoveries come online and suddenly completely upset orthodox views formerly held. I've seen all kinds of things. And with climate, the subject is so inherently difficult and complex, and loaded with uncertainties, that I cannot buy the exaggerated confidence with which pronouncements are made. I can buy that what they are saying is POSSIBLE, perhaps LIKELY, but the certainty part is just beyond the pale. It calls into question their sensibility and intellectual maturity, perhaps even their sanity. NO ONE who is intelligent can be that certain about such things.

You, AG,  are a good-hearted, well-intentioned, morally aware, and fundamentally intelligent man who has, in my view, bitten into this apple too forcefully, and you are now "certain" about things that you CANNOT truly be so certain about.

That's my view and I'm stickin to it.   ;D

 

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