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Author Topic: Picking Up Where We Left Off (at DD)  (Read 1954 times)

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AGelbert

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    • Agelbert Truth AND Consequences
Re: Picking Up Where We Left Off (at DD)
« Reply #30 on: September 16, 2015, 09:38:39 pm »
Why positive feedback mechanisms will not be prevented by incremental measures.

 I present this as part of the evidence that the probability of N.T.H.E. is increasing.
This video is from 2007. YET, it predicts an ice free arctic in the summer between 2015-20. He was spot on. Current targets are around 2017-i9. Back in 2007, the models didn't predict that happening until around 2050! David Wasdell is a credentialed scientist. He was a reviewer in IPCC studies. He explains how the SCIENCE was downplayed by lawyers from various governments. This was done so the science predicting catastrophe (i.e. NON-linearity of degradation acceleration) WOULD NOT be made public. The only hard position reached by the IPCC is that climate change is anthropogenic, PERIOD. Since then things have improved somewhat on the truth about the gravity of our situation, but the public is still mostly in the dark about the existential threat calmly explained here.

David Wasdell makes it clear that strategy geared to today's symptoms is insufficient because causal elements have a 40 to 50 year lag. Incremental measures based on present observations are, not just doomed to fail, they guarantee that they will fail in the future. Only massive, government sponsored action NOW has a chance (and even that is not a sure thing, as is stated in this video) of somewhat ameliorating the probability of catastrophe. He clearly states  that a massive extinction event destroying over 80% of life on earth  will be triggered by about 30 positive feedback loops that credentialed climate scientists agree will overwhelm the ability of our technology to stop them.

As he says, the observation of a "tipping point", if we have the misfortune to view it, guarantees that any response is 40 to 50 years behind the baked in causative factors.


Quote
David Wasdell, Director of the Meridian Programme, is a world-renowned expert in the dynamics of climate change. He is also a reviewer of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports and the author of numerous papers and presentations on climate change and related topics.
http://www.apollo-gaia.org


Here's video by Professor Kevin Anderson
explaining why every day that we delay increases the stupendous cost of the effort to bring the situation under control.

It's a long video. That means that people like Ashvin will not watch it, even though their life may depend on the knowledge imparted in it.

Professor Anderson tears apart every argument presented by Alan or Mking that defends the paltry incremental measures now used to address the issue of catastrophic climate change.



Climate Change: Going beyond the dangerous 

 
Quote

Ian McPherson   Uploaded on Feb 9, 2012

Kevin Anderson, former Director of the Tyndall Centre (the UK's top academic institute researching climate change) is a depressing guy. Here, in his lecture "Beyond dangerous climate change: emission scenarios for a new world", he lays out the grim reality of climate change, and our inability to address it globally.

We are currently mitigating for 4 degrees C of warming and planning for 2 degrees C. As Anderson points out, that's ass backwards. Further, he sees absolutely no way we can meet those targets, given the rapid industrialisation of China and the emerging economies, and the current state of global political inaction.

He points out, with brutal honesty, that "climate analysts construct their scenarios not to avoid dangerous climate change but to avoid threatening economic growth". There is, therefore, almost no possibility that we are going to act, either in time or at the scale necessary, to address the challenge facing us.

We pretend that 2 degrees C is our threshold. Yet the climate scenarios and plans presented to policymakers do not actually reflect that threshold. As Anderson says, "most policy advice is to accept a high probability of extremely dangerous climate change rather than propose radical and immediate emission reductions."

Depressing stuff indeed...

--------------------------------------

Download the paper this lecture is based on (written by Anderson and Alice Bows) here: http://ianmcpherson.com/blog/audio/Ke...

Read David Robert's thoughts about the paper in two articles at Grist:
http://grist.org/climate-change/2011-...
http://grist.org/climate-policy/2011-...

--------------------------------------

This lecture is part of the London School of Economics Department of International Development Friday Lecture Series. More information can be found here: http://www2.lse.ac.uk/newsAndMedia/vi...

--------------------------------------

Speaker: Professor Kevin Anderson.
Recorded on 21 October 2011 in Hong Kong Theatre, Clement House, London UK.

This lecture is part of the LSE Department of International Development Friday Lecture Series. A question and answer session follows the talk.

Kevin Anderson is professor of energy and climate change in the School of Mechanical, Aeronautical and Civil Engineering at the University of Manchester.

He has recently finished a two-year position as director of the Tyndall Centre, the UK's leading academic climate change research organisation, during which time he held a joint post with the University of East Anglia.

 


 
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if it has not works, is dead, being alone.

 

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