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Author Topic: Fossil Fuels: Degraded Democracy and Profit Over Planet Pollution  (Read 9234 times)

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AGelbert

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    • Agelbert Truth AND Consequences
Another report by BP and Oxford Institute ofr Energy Studies, trying to pretend that Peak Oil doesn't matter.

But it does.  As soon as the oil price recovers to profitable levels, demand will fall, and the oil price will collapse to uneconomic levels again.  There is no oil company whose share price can withstand that, and so their share price will implode and their ability to borrow will collapse with it.  Venezuela (which boasts the world's biggest reserves) cannot borrow due to US blockading them financially, and their slow-motion train wreck is happening right now - it's not pretty, and coming to a state near you, guaranteed.

Of course oilprice.com is facing the same kind of train wreck, but the final paragraph shows they know what will happen.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Peak-Oil-Demand-Is-A-Slow-Motion-Train-Wreck.html
Peak Oil Demand Is A Slow-Motion Train Wreck
Nick Cunningham
Jan 18, 2018

Will oil demand peak within five years? 15 years? Or not until 2040 or 2050?

The precise date at which oil demand hits a high point and then enters into decline has been the subject of much debate, and a topic that has attracted a lot of interest just in the last few years. Consumption levels in some parts of the world have already begun to stagnate, and more and more automakers have begun to ratchet up their plans for electric vehicles.

But the exact date the world will hit peak demand kind of misses the whole point, argues a new report, which is notable since it is coauthored by BP’s chief economist Spencer Dale, along with Bassam Fattouh, the director of The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.

They argue that the focus shouldn’t be on the date at which oil demand peaks, but rather the fact that the peak is coming at all. “The significance of peak oil is that it signals a shift from an age of perceived scarcity to an age of abundance,” they wrote. In other words, oil won’t be on the only game in town when it comes to fueling the global transportation system, which will have far-reaching consequences for oil producers and consumers alike.


The exact date is unknowable, and in any event, the year in which the world does hit peak consumption won’t result in some abrupt “discontinuity of behavior,” the report argues. Demand growth will slow and then decline, but probably won’t fall off a cliff. So, the exact date of peak oil demand is “not particularly interesting.”

Nevertheless, the implications of a looming peak in oil consumption are massive. Without an economic transformation, or at least serious diversification, oil-producing nations that depend on oil revenues for both economic growth and to finance public spending, face an uncertain future.

And slowing demand growth is occurring at a time when supply is less of a concern than it used to be, in large part because new drilling technologies have led to a wave of supply from shale. “The world isn’t going to run out of oil. Rather, it seems increasingly likely that significant amounts of recoverable oil will never be extracted,” the authors wrote.

One of the more intriguing conclusions from the report is that this new “age of abundance” could alter behavior from oil producers. In the past, some countries (notably OPEC members) restrained output, husbanding resources for the future, betting that scarcity would increase the value of their holdings over time. “A high reserves-to-production ratio — implying a country could continue producing oil at the same rate for 80, 90, 100+ years — was a sign of both strength and intergenerational fairness,” the report said.

However, looking forward, if a peak in demand looms just over the horizon, oil producers could rush to maximize their production in order to get as much value for their reserves while they can. “Better to have money in the bank than oil in the ground.”

To complicate matters further, maximizing production to fight for market share would require hundreds of billions of dollars of investment. For instance, Rystad Energy predicts upstream spending will stand at $510 billion in 2018 (which is sharply lower than in years past). Huge sums will be required even just to maintain current levels of production.

That creates another problem. As the FT notes, extending the life of oil fields, let alone investing in new ones, will require marshalling such large volumes of capital, but that might be met with skepticism from wary investors when demand begins to peak. “When that shift occurs, from a growing industry to one in decline, you change investors’ perception,” Jason Bordoff at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, told the FT. It will be difficult to attract investment to a shrinking industry, particularly if margins continued to get squeezed. In In that sense, the timing of peak oil demand does in fact matter.

Either way, peak demand should be an alarming prospect for OPEC, Russia, the oil majors — basically any and all oil producers who will find themselves fighting more aggressively for a shrinking pie. “Faced with the possibility that significant amounts of recoverable oil may never be extracted, low-cost producers have a strong incentive to use their comparative advantage to squeeze out high-cost producers and gain market share — just as with any other competitive market,” Dale and Fattouh wrote. 

Oil producers will need to adapt to a “higher volume, lower price” environment. For consumers, however, the shift will bring benefits, including more options and cheaper energy.

At the country level, this is scary stuff. Many oil producers have hefty spending requirements to satisfy their populaces, including for healthcare, housing, employment, etc. Ample global oil supply for the foreseeable future, combined with an eventual peak in demand, threatens persistent fiscal deficits and some hard choices.

Saudi Arabia has offered up its Vision 2030, which the report by Dale and Fattouh say is probably “the most prominent example of a major oil producer responding to the changing environment,” but economic transformations are incredibly difficult and would conceivably take decades to pull off.

It’s hard to imagine countries that depend on oil for more than 90 percent of their export revenue adapting well — it’s a slow-motion train wreck. Dale and Fattouh say it may require “an eventual adjustment in living standards,” which is a rather diplomatic way of putting it.

To claim the oil majors do not concern themselves with Peak DEMAND is ridiculous. The REASON they buy governments so regulations won't force them to price carbon correctly is to PROTECT DEMAND for fossil fuels. Anyone who knows even a tiny bit about the modus operandi of fossil fuel corporations KNOWS the welfare queen treatment (i.e. subsidies plus free pass on pollution) is sine qua non to their "profitable" business model. THAT is not free. They HAVE TO bribe politicians to keep from going BANKRUPT. And that BANKRUPTCY they sweat will come about EXCLUSIVELY because of a massive drop in DEMAND from CHEAPER Renewable Energy sources. So, they LIE about peak demand "not beng a big deal". It's HUGE DEAL!   

PEAK OIL AND GAS? ??? Slow Motion Train Wreck? Peak Oil Demand, YES. Peak Oil, my ARSE!

Norway Aiming For 🔥 Oil & Gas Output To Reach Record Highs By ~2022

January 21st, 2018 by James Ayre

SNIPPET:
Quote

“Norway’s combined output of oil and gas is expected to hit 4.4 million barrels per day of oil equivalents in 2022, the NPD said, a rise of 10% from the forecast 4 million barrels per day of oil equivalents seen for 2018. Investments, excluding exploration cost, were expected to rise marginally in 2018 to 122 billion Norwegian crowns ($15.13 billion) and to about 140 billion crowns in each of the years 2019 and 2020, the NPD said.”

So, the “good news” I guess is that Norway will be able to maintain the currently extravagant lifestyle expectations of its population for longer than expected … by continuing to sell fossil crack co caine to the rest of the world. 



full article:

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/01/21/norway-aiming-oil-gas-output-reach-record-highs-2022/

Aerial view of the Auger Tension Leg Platform in the deep-water US Gulf of Mexico in foreground. Noble Jim Thompson drilling rig in background. Photo credit: Royal Dutch Shell

Will Oil Majors Actually Sink Money Into America’s Waters?

January 5, 2018 by Bloomberg

SNIPPET 1:

It’s not that there aren’t potentially good prospects out there. Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico are obviously well-developed in certain areas already. The waters off southern California are also tempting. Meanwhile, using a little Pangaean jigsaw-puzzling, West Africa’s prolific fields suggest there may be similar riches off the Eastern Seaboard.

And it’s not like major oil companies are brimming with exploration prospects right now. The energy crash crushed spending on discoveries, with 2017 seeing the fewest on record, according to Rystad Energy, a consultancy. Another firm, Wood Mackenzie, estimates just $37 billion will be spent on exploration this year, down more than 60 percent from 2015.

There are two big complications when it comes to capitalizing on America’s federal waters, though: politics and time.

SNIPPET 2:

Offshore spending isn’t dead.Some operators, such as Norway’s Statoil ASA, have worked hard to cut costs and shorten schedules to make projects work at lower prices.

In the Gulf of Mexico, William Turner of Wood Mackenzie authored a recent report forecasting oil and gas production to reach a record of 1.94 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2018.

However, he cautions that exploration spending there will remain flat this year and activity will focus on less-ambitious projects, such as those tying back to existing fields and infrastructure. Current energy pricing, and the renewed focus on staying nimble when it comes to deploying capital, are powerful restraints.

And these challenges would be magnified in new, relatively undeveloped areas. Turner points out, for example, that the swiftness of the Gulf Stream, a wide current running parallel to the Eastern Seaboard, could present big challenges to drilling on the Atlantic shelf.

Full article:

http://gcaptain.com/will-oil-majors-actually-sink-money-americas-waters/


Russia Posts Highest-Ever Natural Gas Output in Expansion Drive

The Christophe de Margerie, the first of 15 icebreaking LNG carriers ordered for the Yamal LNG project to provide transport of LNG year-round in the Arctic, loads its first cargo at the Yamal LNG plant at the Port of Sabetta on the Yamal Peninsula, December 8, 2017. Photo: SCF Group


January 2, 2018 by Bloomberg

By Elena Mazneva and Jake Rudnitsky (Bloomberg) — Russia registered its highest-ever natural gas production last year amid plans to expand into China and boost sales of liquefied natural gas.

The nation’s output of the fuel jumped 7.9 percent to 690.5 billion cubic meters, according to data emailed Tuesday by the Russian Energy Ministry’s CDU-TEK unit. That beat the previous record, set in 2011, by 2.9 percent.

Russia, the world’s largest gas exporter, is working to boost output with plans to increase production of LNG with new plants in an area that stretches from the Baltic region to its Pacific coast. That will put the country up against the biggest producers of the super-chilled fuel, including Qatar, Australia and the U.S. Russia has resources to increase its LNG production almost 10 times by 2035, led by the privately-owned Novatek PJSC in the Arctic, according to the nation’s Energy Ministry.

Full article:

http://gcaptain.com/russia-posts-highest-ever-natural-gas-output-in-expansion-drive/


Don't forget to laugh in any person's face who claims that fossil fuel use is going down (DEMAND is GOING UP, NOT DOWN!). Gallows humor is appropriate at this time of abysmal Russian AND U.S. stupidity. 
Try again when global warming HELL forces us to stop being STUPID (about ten or fifteen years at the most). By then people that live in jungles will be crispy critters in a toasted arid wasteland.   


Putin's Natural Gas BRIDGE to the FUTURE is the SAME "bridge" the frackers in the USA are BUILDING.
Russia is the world's largest exporter of "Natural" Gas.
Leges         Sine    Moribus     Vanae   
Faith,
if it has not works, is dead, being alone.

 

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