Renewable Revolution

RE,  The model has oil going to $20 per barrel by 2019 with a well defined curve, if you really knew that you would buy any dips below min sell before median.  Then reverse positions and short sell any significant dips above median.  You'd lose some but if your model held you'd win more.

This explanation excludes the pertinent fact that when you SHORT a commodity, the upside is limited and the down side is unlimited. The 'market jitters' are far more applicable than supply and demand in dealing with the price of crude BECAUSE market manipulation speculation and war scares have a FAR greater effect on the price rigging of this polluting fossil fuel crap.

Consequently, shorting oil is NOT a sure winner, even if the demand destruction going on could be accurately predicted to destroy the oil and gas producing pigs.

... I certainly haven't gone into a cocoon and become a peak oil denier, ... 

Peak oil is irrelevant; demand Destruction of fossil fuels is. The USGS just found a giant gas deposit near India. There is a multi-billion barrel crude oil find off of the Falklands that has barely begun to be tapped, Another fairly large find was made near Norway. AND, GDP is rising in industrialized countries while energy demand is stable or dropping, putting the lie to the old talking point from Gail Tverberg and fossil fuel friends that GDP is a function of energy use.

... , nor am I looking to pick a bullshit internet napalm war.

I disagree. Your expressed umbrage at having your views challenged is the basic ingredient of an internet food fight.

Your basic view of the future of fossil fuels is flawed due to your lack of objectivity in regard to their actual costs to society.



The following method of obtaining CH4 has far more future than anything the oil and gas industry polluters 'R' US puts out.
 
"Hitting peak oil will come faster than any of us think. But don't blame dwindling supply — it's all about disappearing demand" Amory Lovins