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Author Topic: Fossil Fuels: Degraded Democracy and Profit Over Planet Pollution  (Read 12142 times)

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    • Agelbert Truth AND Consequences
Peak Oil: Problems And Possibilities

By Scott Hornby


The nonrenewable status of fossil fuels isn't up for debate - we've run out of dinosaurs - but the timing and consequences of peak oil are controversial. Some believe that we are already on the down slope, while others believe this is nothing but fear mongering.


Hubbert predicted a global peak around the year 2000. This is where things get muddy. Often, the only way to be certain of a long-term trend is in retrospect. Some experts believe we have already reached a peak or that one is imminent, while others predict a peak in 2020 or later. A report commissioned by the U.S. Department of Energy titled "Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, and Risk" (2005), also called the Hirsch Report, summarizes some of the major predictions that have been published by energy and economics experts:

As you can see from the chart above, an exact date for a peak is difficult to predict even for those involved in the industry. Many experts say we have already crested the peak or that it will come before 2010, while others forecast that it will occur a decade or more later.

The difficulty in pinning down an exact date is due to geological complexities, measurement problems, pricing variations, demand elasticity and political influences. What is clear, however, is that we don't have another hundred years of seemingly limitless supply.


Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) - an energy advisor to companies, governments, financial institutions and technology providers - sees peak oil as an opportunity. CERA predicts an oil plateau after 2030, rather than a peak or bell-shaped curve, during which oil production levels off. This scenario would provide time for unconventional liquid fuels to fill the gap. CERA points to production from heavy oil sands, gas-related liquids (condensate and natural gas liquids), gas-to-liquids and coal-to-liquids.

Full article:

Agelbert NOTE: While CERA, the alleged shills for the Fossil Fuel Industry (according to Palloy) are perhaps more "irrationally positive" about the availability of hydrocarbons, their "production from heavy oil sands, gas-related liquids (condensate and natural gas liquids), gas-to-liquids and coal-to-liquids" scenario, while ruinously polluting, is based on REAL WORLD sources of hydrocarbons and PRESENT Coal Gassification technology. Don't tell me they won't resort to that as long as they CONTINUE to IGNORE the GHG pollution reality on behalf of Hydrocarbon Industry PROFITS.

And furthermore, we may not have another hundred years of seemingly limitless supply, but there is no mention in the above, well referenced article, of a collapse any time soon.

If the issue was so dire, they would have mentioned how a gradual depletion of hydrocarbons would cause a collapse. They did not.

There are actually THREE Peak Oil scenarios, not one. Unfortunately for the readers of this investment advice article, they completely ignore the pollution costs. This is a grievous error, but I post this so you can understand why most people do not take GHG pollution, or the reality that Renewable Energy CAN, AND MUST, totally replace hydrocarbon burning if we are to survive, seriously. :(

A Peak Oil Primer

Simply put, peak oil is the recognition that there will be a day in the future when oil production enters an irreversible decline. This situation can evolve through a few different scenarios, including:

A. A production decline, when new deposits prove too difficult to tap and existing reserves start to draw down. (Also see, The Cost of Shale Oil Versus Conventional Oil.)

B. A production decline when oil alternatives become more cost effective, pricing oil out of the market, and making exploration and production unprofitable.

C. A production decline when all the oil deposits on earth have been exploited, and there is simply no more to be had no matter the price or difficulty.

Full article:

The REAL Bottom Line

Leges         Sine    Moribus     Vanae   
if it has not works, is dead, being alone.


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