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Author Topic: Fossil Fuels: Degraded Democracy and Profit Over Planet Pollution  (Read 13025 times)

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    • Renwable Revolution
So with the world's consumption running at 33.6 billion barrels per year, you think it's good to have discovered 330 million barrels, with a hope to find 1 billion?  If that the best since 2010, then we are in real trouble.
Where would I find a fairly balanced guide to consumption, projected consumption, current production, and discovery that charts past present and future. It seems the peak oil stats run out around 2008-10 and the discoveries project into the future. Who brings both of those pictures together without an agenda? Forgive my wording let me know if my meaning is not clear.  It really seems that we cook ourselves AND run out of economically viable FF. I would like some numbers though to bring those two narratives together in my mind.

Palloy is, as usual, playing mathematical word games with the FACT that there CAN BE NO COLLAPSE, at least until the magical disappearance of oil after 2025. Don't hold your breath waiting for Palloy to ever use hard numbers to base his Confirmation Bias on. He USES Fossil Fuel Industry published numbers when it suits him and, when it does NOT, as the article I posted at the begining of this thread makes CLEAR, he claims the "Fossil Fuel Industry is making it up". How cleverly sophistic of him. 

David, here is an article that gives you an idea of how the real world has responded, for the past ten years, to the "Peak Oil" scaremongering.

As to reliable numbers, go to the initial article on this thread and research the ZME science web site. They do not DO false propaganda or fake numbers. If you believe Palloy more than them, then you are being taken for a ride, PERIOD.

What Ever Happened to ‘Peak Oil’?

Media 'retreats' from doomsday theory as U.S. production spikesBY: Elizabeth Harrington

February 2, 2018 4:13 pm

"From the steps of the Supreme Court to the White House press room, from global trading exchanges to the snowy reaches of Alaska — over the last week, you could hear the creak of history as it began to pivot in a half-dozen locales," an editorial in the New York Times read.

"The Age of Oil is at an end. Maybe not this year. Maybe not for five years. But signs of the coming collapse are evident."

The article, with the stark headline, "Oil's End," ran in March 2008.

Ten years later, we're still waiting for that "coming collapse." ::)

In fact, this week we learned the U.S. topped 10 million barrels a day in oil production in November, a level not reached since 1970. We hit that mark four months ahead of schedule, largely on the back of the shale industry, "once dismissed" by global oil exporters.

For years we heard about "peak oil," the theory of hitting a maximum amount of oil production and waiting for it to run out, none louder than in the pages of the New York Times and the Washington Post.

Paul Krugman told us we were "running out of planet to exploit" in 2008, warning, "this time may be different."

By September 2010, the Times green blog was circulating a study projecting the world would hit peak oil that year, leading to a "dire global economic crisis" by 2025 as a "result of a peak and an irreversible decline in world oil supplies."

By November: "Peak oil is not just here — it's behind us already."

Quoting from the International Energy Agency, the Times blog reported that crude oil production "probably topped out for good in 2006, at about 70 million barrels a day."

Of course by 2016, the IEA reported world production of 96 million barrels of oil per day, or 35 billion barrels a year.

The Times peak oil scare was not limited to its editorial pages. In June 2010, the Times profiled environmentalist "survivalists" who were stocking up on seeds and supplies out of fear the world would run out of oil.

Raven Gray, the leader of Transition US, a group helping towns "brace for life after oil," said, "There's lot of apocalyptic people in environmental circles." You don't say?

The Washington Post was also a bit premature on its peak oil scare. "Wake Up, America. We're Driving Toward Disaster," an editorial read in May 2008. The editorial advocated changes to the "way we produce food, "conduct commerce and trade," the "way we travel," the "way we occupy the land," and the "way we acquire and spend capital," in response to peak oil.

The next month, the Post, remarked that the "world may have arrived at Peak Oil," while acknowledging that "this may not be literally true."

"[E]stimates of vast undiscovered oil reservoirs imply that Peak Oil is decades away," said Robert J. Samuelson. "But governments that control 75 percent or more of known reserves are behaving as if Peak Oil is already here."

"The grim price outlook by [economist Jeffrey] Rubin and others presumes that this situation persists," he said.

"Of course, they could be wrong."

By December 2011 the Post pronounced, "Oil's getting harder and harder to come by."

But, of course, they could be wrong.

In 2015 the Post and Samuelson declared, "The retreat of ‘peak oil.'"

"Oil is a finite natural resource," Samuelson said. "There's only so much of it. When it's gone, it's gone."

"The trouble is," Samuelson added, "that this compelling logic has yet to play out in the real world."


Agelbert NOTE: The above article contains several links that you may wish to peruse to get to the truth. You don't need to believe a word Palloy or I say. You are, as far as I can tell, fairly objective about this. If you do all the proper research, you will come to the conclusion that Peak Oil is not a problem, or an obstacle so insurmountable as to cause a collapse, and never was, as far as obtaining energy to run this Polluting Monstrocity called Human civilization.


So, how long before we run out of fossil fuels? In order to project how much time we have left before the world runs out of oil, gas, and coal, one method is measuring the R/P ratios — that is the ratio of reserves to current rates of production. At the current rates of production, oil will run out in 53 years, natural gas in 54, and coal in 110. This is bearing in mind a 2015 World Energy Outlook study by the International Energy Agency, which predicted fossil fuels will constitute 59% of the total primary energy demand in 2040, even despite aggressive climate action policies.

Other researchers, organizations, and governments have different deadlines for fossil fuel exhaustion, depending on the data and assumptions that they make, as well as political affiliation and interests. The American Petroleum Institute estimated in 1999 the world’s oil supply would be depleted between 2062 and 2094, assuming total world oil reserves at between 1.4 and 2 trillion barrels. In 2006, however, the Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) predicted that 3.74 trillion barrels of oil remained in the Earth — three times the number estimated by peak oil proponents. 👀

Is Peak Oil behind us? Not clear

While we know for sure that the exploitation of fossil fuels is limited, estimates can vary wildly because new deposits are sometimes found and new technology enables access to previously untapped oil or gas fields or allows more efficient extraction. So, the challenge in estimating a timescale for fossil fuel depletion lies in the fact that new resources are added fairly regularly. Therefore, we have to keep in mind that all of these estimates are based on R/P ratios and thereby only consider proven reserves, not probable or possible reserves of resources. For instance, in 1980, the R/P ratio suggested only 32 years of oil production from existing reserves. 

A 1977 report issued by the Energy Information Administration concluded that the United States could only access 32 billion barrels of oil reserves and 207 trillion cubic feet of natural gas reserves. But from then to 2010, the country extracted 84 billion barrels of oil (2.6 times more than the initial estimate) and 610 trillion cubic feet of gas (2.9 times the initial reserve estimate). What’s more, reserves are growing. Today, the U.S. has increased the size of its reserves by a third since 2011 thanks to horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracking which enable access to oil and gas trapped in underground rock formation. Previously, it wasn’t economically feasible to extract these resources.

As technology continues to improve, both governments and oil & gas companies will be able to access new reserves — some that can’t currently be exploited and others that are still unidentified.


Palloy cannot handle the truth, so he claims the Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) numbers are "fake news". 

Here are a few token examples of what is really going on out there. You know the  Canada tar sands part and the USA fracking part that are both producing monstrous amounts of fossil fuels. You probably know about the Troll A (which cost about 15 billion dollars to build and plant on the North Sea bottom) ocean platform that is pumping oil and gas in mega amounts.
There are many, many untapped fields like the one they found near the Falklands two years ago with several BILLIONS of barrels of oil waiting to be extracted when the price is right.

Shell JUST BEGAN to pump gas from the Gulf of Mexico at $30 a BOE. Does that sound like a well they want to husband because its going to run out quick? I don't think so.

Shell just made operational the largest floating structure ever made by humans, the purpose of which is to drill for and pump gas out of the ocean bottom at multi-well rates.

Exxon is busy doing all sorts of production I do not have time to go into. They are producing MORE, not less, hydrocarbon product. Then there is China, Russia the Saudis, Qatar, Iran, Norway etc.

ONE THIRD of the traffic in the Panama Canal is now gas bulk carriers, when less than 5 years go, it was ZIP!

As K-Dog stated, we've got coal out the whazzo. Even if every oil and gas well petered out tomorrow, a ridiculously unlikely scenario, coal, through the process you have probably read about called gassification, can be feed stock for any and all hydrocarbon crap we now use to make plastics, fertilizers, lubricants, gasolne, diesel (and so on).

Yeah, it's the MOTHER of pollution generating processes, but so what? Almost everybody on this forum is so f u c k i ng fixated on ENERGY, that pollution does not seem to be an issue. Okay, if we don't give a flat f u c k about pollution, then we simply do not have to worry about peak fossil fuels, even if the oil and gas peter out on Palloy's alarmist "the sky is falling" schedule. This is logical. This is objective. The peak oil meme is not applicable in the real world, period.

The "hydrocarbon burning pollution will kill us" IS applicable for those who inhabit the reality based community.

Did you know that Trumpy just reversed an Obama rule that would not allow drilling for oil and gas in those Great Lakes that border your country? Yeah, he just did that this month. I don't think that is too encouraging to people who like clean water, do you?

The discovery made in the article I posted yesterday is just ONE, of many that are going on as we speak all over this God forskaen, fossil fuel loving, screwed up world. Celebrate cheap oil if you wish, but don't believe the bullshit about it running out, at least not in your lifetime.

On this thread, I will make it a habit of posting articles on oil production rates and new discoveries of fossil fuels that can be tapped with present technology. It will be entertaining to watch Palloy try to talk his way around those news items. Stay tuned.
Hope deferred maketh the heart sick: but when the desire cometh, it is a tree of life. Pr. 13:12


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