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Author Topic: Fossil Fuel Profits Getting Eaten Alive by Renewable Energy!  (Read 7004 times)

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AGelbert

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    • Renwable Revolution
Palloy said
Quote
In conclusion: In spite of the recent increase in Russian production as well as the slight increase from the North Sea, in spite of the dramatic production increase from Iran due to the lifting of sanctions, world crude oil production is in decline. And while it is true that most of this decline is due to the price crash it remains to be seen just how much production will recover when the price returns to… to… wherever it returns to before it stops.

But… the decline has only just begun. The price collapse caused the plateau in world oil production that began about March 2015. However, the decline did not actually begin until January 2016. The dramatic rise in production from Iran has kept the decline from becoming obvious to everyone. However, when the May production numbers come in, I think it will then become obvious to everyone.

I disagree with your conclusion. There is a lot more at work here than just Iran. As usual, you ignore the Renewable energy caused demand destruction contribution to the sticky low price AND the commodities futures speculation manipulation. When you do acknowledge reduced demand, you claim it is due exclusively to depressed economies. The demand destruction is a combination of the two, though apparently you will never accept that.   

The current demand will continue to go DOWN while production is INCREASING, not declining. The meeting of OPEC coming up has EVERY sign of everybody giving each other the finger, not some "gentlemanly" agreement to engineer higher prices by reducing production.

That is not my opinion; it's the opinion of a PRO-Oil dude that is moaning and groaning about it with some rather inconvenient, but quite accurate, data. He WANTS prices to rise. But he does not see that happening any time soon.

I agree UNLESS speculation achieves it. The fundamentals you are referencing DO NOT justify it, mainly because the "demand" predictions are happy talk. If you seriously expect objectivity about oil demand from the EIA, you are in for a rude awakening.

OPEC: Obviously Powerless to Effect Change?
Analysis & Opinion > OPEC: Obviously Powerless to Effect Change?   

Exclusively For Offshore Post: Declan is an internationally recognised journalist of more than two decades, having worked for the BBC and ABC News, focusing on all things business and global economics.

SNIPPET:

Increasing Production
Meanwhile, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and now Iraq are talking about increasing production, not reducing it. And some of the temporary shortages that nudged the market price of Brent Crude back above $50 a barrel are just that – temporary.

Canada will repair the disruption to supplies caused by those forest fires (see my last column). Suncor Energy, Canada’s biggest oil producer, announced a “safe and staged restart” of production last weekend; it has moved over 4,000 employees and contractors back into the region already, with another 3,500 people to follow this week.

So prices are likely to remain low, and possibly for quite a while longer. It is possible to conjure up a narrative that says suppressing the market price by producing far more crude than the world needs is all a far-sighted, intensely clever strategic play by the Saudis and OPEC to stimulate demand for oil, and stretch that demand long into the future while eliminating some deadly rivals.

A low oil price squeezes the life out of America’s high-cost, highly indebted shale industry, it makes it less economic to develop renewable sources of energy, it reduces the urgency to become more energy efficient and it curbs the temptation to switch to lower-cost fuels. In this narrative, we stay reliant on Saudi oil for decades to come.

Feeling The Pain

But it’s hard to see it as cool, calculating strategy when it is causing such pain for the oil industry – and for nations that rely on oil revenues, inside and outside OPEC.

http://www.offshorepost.com/analysis/opec-obviously-powerless-effect-change/?utm_source=Offshore+Post&utm_campaign=2733d07d75-Declan+Tuesday+May+30+2016&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_d0509d2a93-2733d07d75-265831769

 
Here's another reality check for those (like you, perhaps?  ;)) hoping for prices above $50/barrel:

Russia Won't Attend OPEC Meeting; Now Shuns Output Freeze
http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-wont-attend-opec-meeting-vienna-now-shuns-output-freeze-novak-/27771522.html

AND, about the
SPECULATION SMOKE AND MIRRORS that can jack up oil prices (absent ANY fundamanetals justification) that you REFUSE to acknowledge:

Quote

A recent study by Cambridge Econometrics, Oil Market Futures, concluded that investing in clean transportation could help head off the next oil price spike.






Rob not the poor, because he is poor: neither oppress the afflicted in the gate:
For the Lord will plead their cause, and spoil the soul of those that spoiled them. Pr. 22:22-23

 

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