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Author Topic: Fossil Fuel Profits Getting Eaten Alive by Renewable Energy!  (Read 5585 times)

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Talk About “Losing Money” — US Shale Will Crash … Hard 🕵️

August 19th, 2018 by Guest Contributor

Originally published on EnergyPost.eu


With fracking about to recommence in the UK after 8 years, social entrepreneur and writer Jeremy Leggett reviews the short but troubled history of fracking in the US. In a devastating slide presentation, he pictures the shale gas industry as a dirty, multi-hundred-billion-dollar doomed-to-burst debt bubble. And he predicts a similar fiasco in the UK. Courtesy Future Today.

Excellent 114 slide history of fracking: 👍


Slide description:

History of oil and gas production from shale in pictures and charts: Why American shale is heading for a crash and fracking in the UK is doomed to costly failure

1. History of oil and gas production from shale in pictures and charts Why American shale is heading for a crash and fracking in the UK is doomed to costly failure Jeremy Leggett

2. Preface This is a presentation based on the Future Today chronology of selected developments in climate, energy, tech and the future of civilization: www.jeremyleggett.net The powerpoint version includes source urls as notes, and is available free for any use, by anybody, at https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1pJlLMT57QZbUP0ZjWf5RMrexzDuanaC2 I know something about this subject not just because of my fear of climate change and passion for the energy transition, but from the research work I did for more than a decade in my first career….

3. A paper in the Journal of The Geological Society analyses widespread shale rocks in the UK 7th Jan 2016 Apr 1980 I researched shale and related rocks while on the faculty at Imperial College (1978 – 1989), funded among others by BP and Shell.

4. At first pass, the reversal of US gas and oil production after fracking of shale began in earnest around 2007-8 looks like a modern industrial miracle

5. 7th Jan 2016 2015 Fracking of shale from c. 2006 pushes US gas production steeply up after 5 years of decline Trillioncubicfeet Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2016 US dry natural gas production by resource type

6. 1940: 6 in 7 barrels used by Allies in WW2 come from the US 1950: Car use and oil imports soar Nov 1970 Peak 1977 Alaska comes onstream 2008: Fracking in shale 2014 Price collapse …recovery 7th Jan 2016 31st Jan 2018 Fracking of shale from 2008 pushes US oil production above 10 mbd: heights last seen in 1970 millionbarrelsperday

7. 7th Jan 2016 2011 This “game changer” for oil & gas triggers euphoria, including in the political, media and analyst worlds

8. Tar sands US shale oil Conventional crude oil Global crude oil production 2005–2014 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 80,000 68,000 70,000 72,000 74,000 76,000 78,000 66,000 64,000 62,000 60,000 Thousandbarrelsperday Source:IEA US shale is propping up global crude oil production, and has derailed / deferred fears of a supply peak 7th Jan 20162014

9. But meanwhile there are some inconvenient truths concerning the economics

10. The US shale oil and gas business hasn’t funded itself at any oil price in any year since the beginning 7th Jan 2016 27th Dec 2017 Even at $100 oil prices in 2012 and 2013, the 33 companies spent more money producing shale energy than they made from operations. 33 shale-weighted E&P companies in the 4 main shale oil plays: Free cash flow Source: Bloomberg

11. 7th Jan 2016 6th Feb 2018 The US shale boom has been “a Ponzi scheme since day one”, doomed to collapse as fast as it has grown So argues @SRSroccoReport, based on the buildup of debt as evidenced in data collated e.g. by the Financial Times as above.

12. Even at the relatively high oil prices of 2017 fracked shale oil is a marginally profitable business at best 7th Jan 2016 3rd Mar 2018 Capex v cash from operations based on 10K full 2017 filings

13. Accounts of the main US exploration & production companies show 73% of them are losing money 7th Jan 2016 3rd Mar 2018 Capex v cash from operations based on 10K full 2017 filings

14. 7th Jan 2016 13th Feb 2018 A summary of the finances of fracked gas in the USA since the dawn of the shale gas boom Prof David Smythe for TEDx: income has been half costs plus borrowing …and rapid production declines won’t allow bonds to be repaid. Unconventional well finances 2007 – 2016 inclusive 350 70 227 647 Historic income (gas sales) 1 Drilling / completion cost 2 Royalties, leases, interest etc 3 Issuance of debt – junk bonds 4 324 $ billion

15. And even if somehow the majority of companies fracking shale could find their way to profitability they would face another problem of economics coming fast at them down the tracks….

16. 7th Jan 2016 12th Feb 2018 “A Powerful Mix of Solar and Batteries Is Beating Natural Gas” e.g. Arizona PS Co. opts for a solar-battery project cheaper than gas. California PURC requires PG&E to use batteries over gas. The Way Humans Get Electricity Is About To Change Forever

17. Case for coal and gas plants is “crumbling” as wind, solar and battery costs plunge 7th Jan 2016 28th Mar 2018 Bloomberg New Energy Finance says its latest conclusions have “chilling” implications for fossil generators. • Global LCOE falls 18% YOY for both onshore wind and PV in first six months of 2018 …to $55/MWh and $70MWh respectively • Offshore wind down 5% to $118/MWh • 79% fall in lithium-ion battery costs since 2010

18. There have been clear warnings about the debt mountain from early on in the shale story, and all the way through it ….in this respect the shale debt bubble is unlike the mortgage-backed securities debt bubble that built up before the credit crunch of 2007 and financial crisis of 2008 (In some of the pictures and charts that follow, the oil price of the day [Brent crude] is in yellow)

19. 1 mile © Hughes GSR Inc, 2014 (data from Drillinginfo, February, 2014) “Is the U.S. Shale Boom Going Bust?” (…even at $100 oil) 22nd Apr 2014 $108 Another Bloomberg report, on 30th April, digs further. Its headline: “Shale Drillers Feast on Junk Debt to Stay on Treadmill.”

20. “The Shale Industry Could Be Swallowed By Its Own Debt” 17th Jun 2015 $60 “Drillers’ debt ballooned to $235 billion at the end of the first quarter, a 16 percent increase in the past year, even as revenue shrank.”

21. “Oil price plunge sparks bankruptcy concerns” 11th Jan 2016 $29 Long-term debt for 134 public oil exploration and production companies in the US and Canada. 2015 figure is through December 17th.

22. Both trains and drillers are increasingly getting burned in the shale boom “BHP writes down US shale assets by $7.2bn” 15th Jan 2016 $28

23. 7th Jan 2016 29th Jun 2017 After $13bn of writedowns, BHP chairman says $20bn US shale investment in 2011 was “a mistake” Jacques Nasser: “If we knew (in 2011) what we knew today, we wouldn't do it, of course we wouldn't do it.”

24. “It will take more than an oil price rally to restart the US shale boom” 10th Feb 2016 $30 "It’s not really like just turning on the light switch." Bill Thomas, chief executive EOG Resources Reasons include cannibalization and degradation of idled equipment, workers relocating to growth sectors such as solar.

25. “Oil industry faces huge worker shortage”7th Jan 2016 8th July 2016 $44 The average age of the oil industry worker is 49 c. 350,000 workers laid off industry-wide, c. 60% of fracking workforce laid off, c. 70% fracking equipment idled, >70 companies bankrupt

26. The industry is innovating its costs down constantly: global average oil breakeven cost is now at $51 7th Jan 2016 13th July 2016 $44 This is down $19 since 2014, and shale costs are among the lowest. But it is not enough to reverse the buildup of the debt mountain.

27. “Energy companies buy time by paying debt interest with more debt” 7th Jan 2016 25th July 2016 W&T Offshore, for example: they are offering bondholders 45% of equity plus more debt notes deferring cash payments due. 7th Jan 2016 25th July 2016 $43

28. 7th Jan 2016 24th Oct 2016 $49 “Bankruptcy bust: How zombie companies are killing the oil rally” c.70 bankrupt companies are producing fully 1.1 mbd, restricting the oil price rise that can offer at least some hope of profitability.

29. 7th Jan 2016 1st June 2017 $50 Michael Bloomberg: US cities, states and businesses will still meet Paris targets “The Global Oil & Gas Industry Is Cannibalizing Itself To Stay Alive” 75% of operating cash flow just to pay interest The Debt Wall Amount of bonds below investment grade that the US energy companies need to pay back each year

30. Oil and gas extraction has been the least profitable US industry over the last year 7th Jan 2016 24th Sep 2017 $58 Negative net profit averaging almost 7% over the 12 months to end July.

31. 20th Apr 2017 2 of the 3 main US shale oil production plays have peaked ….meaning much now rides on the Permian

32. 7th Jan 2016 5th Oct 2017 $57 Land deals are plunging as costs rise & production figures disappoint: “latest piece of evidence to suggest that “Permania” might be easing.”. “The Permian Boom Is Coming To An End”

33. “Has the US shale drilling revolution peaked?” 7th Jan 2016 18th Oct 2017 $58 Rather inconvenient if so, because production must be maintained for a long time, at high oil prices, in order to service / reduce the debt wall.

34. Shale gas represents 64% of US dry gas production: the US economy can ill afford any kind of collapse 7th Jan 2016 2nd Mar 2018 $64 Much depends on the Marcellus Shale (mostly in Pennsylvania), which provides 38% of shale gas production and 24% of US gas production.

35. “Wary shale investors warn against drilling at all costs” 7th Jan 2016 1st Apr 2018 $69 Says one: “If you outspend cash flow on stupid investments & destroy capital, I’m not just going to be mad at you, I’m going to punish you…”

36. 7th Jan 2016 29th Apr 2017 $75 “More Rigs Don't Mean More U.S. Gas …producers are running hard to stand still.” Rigs double since August… …and production drops

37. Fast shale-well depletion means “the oil and gas infrastructure bubble is over”: John Dizard in the FT 7th Jan 2016 13th Apr 2018 Investors’ dilemma: “No matter how many years’ service the pipes and plants could provide, there will not be the production to fill them.”

38. “Shale Industry Drills More Debt Than Profit”: DeSmogBlog launches series on $280 bn debt pile 7th Jan 2016 18th Apr 2018 “The American oil and gas boom spurred by fracking innovations may be one of the largest money-losing endeavors in the nation's history.”

39. e.g. EOG Resources: $1.1 bn loss in 2016. Would have lost $0.7 bn in 2017 but for GOP tax handout of $2.2 bn. It is still $6bn in debt. US fracking companies tipped from yet more debt to profit by Trump tax law change at end of 2016 7th Jan 2016 26th Apr 2018

40. “The US shale industry has been a money pit”: FT. Chart shows free cash flow per barrel produced for a sample of leading companies. As the oil price rises, some US shale drillers finally just about recoup the cost of their drilling 7th Jan 2016 22nd Apr 2018 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: FT $2 0 -2 -4 -6

41. Unprofitability of fracking means the industry must keep borrowing new debt to pay back existing debt: “…the very definition of a Ponzi Scheme.” “How Lousy Shale Economics Will Pull Down The U.S. Economy”: SRSrocco Report 7th Jan 2016 18th May 2018 $78 Future Today 2015 2016 2017 • Plotting production decline by year of first flow shows just how fast the decline rates are • This plot is of the Permian, the biggest oil basin, showing e.g. 60% decline in 2 years from beginning 2016 to end 2017 (red circles) • Replacing that decline requires taking on another massive increment of debt to bankroll new production 1 2 million barrels / day 1.5 0.5

42. To keep production ahead of such decline, most companies are piling on debt even at current oil prices. Cash flow in top 10 Q1 2018: - $455 m. 7th Jan 2016 25th July 2018 $73 Decline rate in the top US shale oilfields has steadily increased to half a million barrels per day now

43. As though this state of play were not bad enough, some shale players have demonstrably inflated share prices fraudulently. If this tendency proves to be as widespread as some fear, the shale-debt crisis could end up worse than summarized here

44. 2nd Mar 2016 2nd Mar 2016 1st Mar 2016 xEx Chesapeake boss indicted for conspiracy Anti-trust investigations of other drillers ongoing

45. 2nd Mar 2016 2nd Mar 2016 2nd Mar 2016 x Ex Chesapeake boss dies in fiery car crash

46. 2nd Mar 2016 2nd Mar 2016 4th Mar 2016 x“McClendon's Actions Aren't Uncommon Across U.S. Shale Patch”

47. 7th Jan 2016 15th June 2016 “Why Billions in Proven Shale Oil Reserves Suddenly Became Unproven” 2016 deletions: = 9.2 bn barrels across 59 U.S. oil and gas companies - more than 20 % of their inventories. The SEC is investigating.

48. The track record of resource exaggeration is not encouraging

49. EIA revises down its estimate of oil recoverable in the Monterrey Shale of California by, ahem, 96% 7th Jan 2016 21st May 2014 Monterrey lauded in 2011 as a 13 bn barrel resource: 66% of US shale oil supply. Rather more media coverage of that story than this one.

50. 7th Jan 2016 5th Feb 2018 EIA 2017 shale oil projection “highly to extremely optimistic, and are very unlikely to be realized”: PCI $ hundreds of billions in debt to do this much $7.7 trillion needed to drill 1.29 million wells in EIA’s projected production Source:DavidHughes,PostCarbonInstitute

51. As the debts have built up, so have environmental problems

52. An increasing flow of worrying environmental reports on water, waste, frack fluids, & emissions 7th Jan 2016 2007 to 2014

53. City where the shale industry began - Denton, Texas - votes to ban fracking on environmental concerns 7th Jan 2016 5th Nov 2014

54. Response: Texas Legislature bans fracking bans 7th Jan 2016 16th Jun 2015

55. Long awaited EPA study concludes that fracking does contaminate US drinking water[/size] 7th Jan 2016 5th June 2016 Both the oil and gas industry and the Environmental Protection Agency had insisted that it did not until this report.

56. 7th Jan 2016 1st Aug 2017 “As the oil patch demands more water, West Texas fights over a scarce resource” Water companies are mining aquifers Farmers and others are preparing to sue

57. Exposure to intense shale gas operations correlates with higher risk of asthma attacks,
researchers find 7th Jan 2016 18th July 2016 Study began in 2012 on medical records of >400,000 residents. Finds increase in severity of asthma in those exposed to most active wells.

58. 7th Jan 2016 27th Jan 2013 So much gas is being flared from US shale fracking for oil that it can easily be seen from space Bakken Shale Minnesota St Paul `Chicago Enough gas wasted to power all the homes in Chicago and Washington DC combined

59. 7th Jan 2016 18th July 2018 If the the gas burnt globally in flares were captured and used for power generation, it could supply 90% of Africa’s electricity consumption. Global gas flaring dropped slightly in 2017, but rose 7% in the US because of fracked shale oil

60. The core oil and gas climate argument is that burning gas is less bad for global warming than burning coal

61. True ….depending on leakage Agelbert NOTE: Though coal produces more particulate pollution causing respiratory diseases, gas actually increases Global Warming from GHG pollution MORE than coal!

📢 Amory Lovins: Natural Gas is worse than Coal
Published on Jul 6, 2017

62. 7th Jan 2016 28th Jun 2017 The Paris climate emissions budget is tiny, meaning all existing gas reserves cannot be safely burned Decarbonisation by 2040 As set out by Christiana Figueres + long list of climate experts. “3 years to safeguard our climate.” And if methane leakage is significant ….

63. “Future of natural gas hinges on staunching methane leaks” 7th Jan 2016 11th July 2016 EPA data collection programme underway on 10s of 1000s of oil and gas operations. Some drillers have committed to <1% emissions.

64. Methane leaks from the US oil & gas industry c.60% higher than government estimates: new study 7th Jan 2016 21st Jun 2018 9-basin estimate incorporating aerial data suggests 2.3% leakage well- to-power plant. EPA suggested 1.4%. 2.7% makes gas worse than coal.

65. “The data confirm that we can and must do more on methane.” 2nd Mar 2016 2nd Mar 2016 29th Feb 2016 xEPA Chief: Methane emissions from oil and gas substantially higher than we thought”

66. 2nd Mar 2016 2nd Mar 2016 11th Mar 2016 xUS and Canada to cut methane emissions from oil and gas industry by 40-45%

67. 2nd Mar 2016 2nd Mar 2016 11th Mar 2016 xAPI says it will take legal action because emissions cuts will “threaten the shale revolution” Jack Gerard CEO

68. 7th Jan 2016 28th Apr 2016 The U.S. oil and gas boom is having global atmospheric consequences, NOAA reports Fully 2% of rising global ethane concentrations (which can only come from fossil fuels) are from the Bakken Shale.

69. 7th Jan 2016 16th Aug 2016 In US methane hot spot, researchers pinpoint sources of 250 leaks using airborne sensors c. 600,000 metric tons. Major coal bed methane production region. More than 50% emissions from 10% of leaks.

70. NASA-led team shows oil & gas industry responsible for largest share of recent rising methane emissions 7th Jan 2016 20th Dec 2017 New measurements reconciling isotopic data suggest fossil fuels contributed 12–19 Tg CH4 per year of c. 25 Tg CH4 per year since 2006.

71. The oil industry is betting its survival on gas, with US shale as a centerpiece

72. The O&G industry is trying to rebrand itself as a clean energy industry based on natural gas vs coal 7th Jan 2016 9th Jun 2015 World gas conference, 2015

73. Oil and Gas Climate Initiative: 10 CEOs …majoring on oil companies morphing to gas companies 7th Jan 2016 16th Oct 2015

74. 7th Jan 2016 16th Aug 2017 “Shell takes $14bn gas **** with world’s biggest floating structure” Floating Liquified Natural Gas vessel Prelude Length 488 metres

75. 7th Jan 2016 20th June 2016 Shell puts revamped shale arm at heart of future growth strategy

76. 7th Jan 2016 7th Jan 2018 Growth of Shell’s oil and gas operations in the next decade will depend on shale production: CEO With “a little bit of help from the oil price going up, we now see that we can significantly accelerate investment into this opportunity.”

77. Shell to bet billions on US shale by bidding for retreating loss maker BHP's shale division 7th Jan 2016 8th Mar 2018 The Charge of The Light Brigade A $10 billion offer, jointly with US private equity group Blackstone.

78. 7th Jan 2016 1st Aug 2013 Shell writes off $2 billion in shale The idea of a shale revolution spreading from the US across the world is “a little bit overhyped,” says CEO Peter Voser.

79. 7th Jan 2016 3rd Oct 2016 “Big oil should exercise capital discipline as prices rise” …& appoint a Head of Memory So says Paul Spedding, ex Global Co-Head of Oil And Gas Research at HSBC, now an advisor to Carbon Tracker

80. Beating Shell and Chevron to the 4.5 billion barrels of oil-equivalent resources, BP CEO Bob Dudley calls it a “transformational acquisition.” 7th Jan 2016 26th July 2018 BP heads into US shale oil and gas by buying BHP's assets - up for sale nearly a year - for $10.5bn

81. 7th Jan 2016 12th Feb 2017 “Oil and gas discoveries dry up to lowest total for 60 years” 174 discoveries totaling only 8.2 bb oil and gas equivalent in 2016. This dismal record pressures oil majors to seek quick wins in US shale.

82. 7th Jan 2016 31st Oct 2017 Gas firms spend €104m on lobbying in 2016 to keep Europe hooked on fossil fuel 30x more than groups lobbying for a fossil-fuel-free future. 460 meetings with just two relevant EU Commissioners in 2.5 years.

83. With one exception, it looks as though the rest of the world fears the downsides of shale enough not try and copy the Americans

84. 7th Jan 2016 2nd June 2016 Scottish parliament bans fracking

85. 7th Jan 2016 24th June 2016 Germany bans fracking 👍

86. 7th Jan 2016 30th Aug 2016 Victoria becomes first Australian state to permanently ban fracking and coal seam gas 👍 “It is clear that the Victorian community has spoken. They simply don’t support fracking”: State government spokesperson

87. France bans fracking and oil extraction in all of its territories 7th Jan 2016 20th Dec 2017 • 👍 President Macron says he wants to lead the world in race for renewables • Lawmakers hope the ban will be “contagious”

88. New Zealand bans future offshore oil and gas drilling 👍 in support of Paris targets 7th Jan 2016 12th Apr 2018 NZ currently has 5 operating offshore fields, and 22 active offshore exploration licences. Oil lobby expresses surprise and disappointment.

89. 7th Jan 2016 9th Nov 2016 Monterey county, a significant drilling target, votes to ban fracking despite oil industry lobbying blitz 👍

90. The exception is England, a country with a government seemingly intent on allowing the fracking of shale at any cost  >:(

91. 7th Jan 2016 Dec 2012 US shale drillers hit hurdles going international UK backs gas including domestic shale

92. “Vast areas” of southern England “discovered” to hold “billions of barrels” of oil in shale 7th Jan 2016 23rd May 2014

93. A single pre-frack exploration well drilled by Caudrilla at Balcombe in Sussex faces huge protests 7th Jan 2016 Aug 2014 👍

94. UK Secretary of State for Energy and Climate: “Our country needs shale gas, so let’s go get it” 7th Jan 2016 9th Aug 2015 Amber Rudd: “A responsible, long-term energy policy demands a willingness to take decisions today for the good of tomorrow.” 

95. “Britain's shale fracking revolution comes with big risks” 7th Jan 2016 18th Aug 2015 Andrew Critchlow: “Get it wrong and fracking in Britain…will become too politically toxic for any future government to consider. “ There would be rather a lot of these on English country lanes, carrying water, sand, and toxic frack fluids in to well pads, and waste fluid plus (maybe) oil and gas out

96. Fracking gets go-ahead in UK for first time since 2011, despite 4,000 objections to planning enquiry 7th Jan 2016 23rd May 2016 FT Lex: “The cult following still believes that fracking in the UK could be profitable. Investors should allow market forces to finally kill it off.”

97. 7th Jan 2016 8th Aug 2016 UK shale: “All households near fracking sites set to get money paid straight into banks”

98. 7th Jan 2016 27th Oct 2016 Latest UK poll suggests only 17% support fracking (while 79% support renewables) These companies are joined by the Conservative government in running the gauntlet of such huge public opposition, which must be multi-party.

99. 7th Jan 2016 13th Feb 2018 UK government accused of dishonesty in regulation of fracking by eminent geophysicist Prof David Smythe: risk in fault leakage covered up, & definitions of “conventional” & water volume bent to misclassify fracked wells. 

100. Ineos shale drilling application rejected: that makes 7 out of 8 shale drilling plans rejected in 2018 7th Jan 2016 8th Mar 2018 It now takes on average 58 weeks to (maybe) get a planning decision on the drilling of a vertical well, up from 13 weeks 5 years ago.

101. UK's first horizontal well completed in Lancashire shale, Caudrilla reports 7th Jan 2016 3rd Apr 2018 The driller now waits for government approval to conduct what would be the first frack since 2011. (The one that led to an earthquake).

102. 7th Jan 2016 19th July 2018 …and no payments for solar electricity exports – a huge blow to the homeowner and community solar that competes with shale gas. HMG proposes, on the same day, no need for frackers to seek planning permission henceforth….

103. Cuadrilla given the go-ahead to start fracking in Lancashire by energy minister 7th Jan 2016 24th July 2018 Claire Perry: “Our world-class regulations will ensure that shale exploration will maintain robust environmental standards and meet the expectations of local communities.” be derided 

104. Letter to O&G companies: major hydrocarbon releases “remain a concern because of their greater potential to lead to fires, explosions and multiple losses of life. There have been several such releases in recent years that have come perilously close to disaster.” Offshore UK OGI “perilously close to disasters” as a result of neglected gas leakage, HSE warns 7th Jan 2016 26th Apr 2018

105. The Air Quality Expert Group (AQEG) report is eventually quietly published 3 days after Caudrilla gets clearance to frack in Yorkshire. 7th Jan 2016 2nd Aug 2018 Report finding that fracking increases air pollution buried for 3 years by UK government 40,000 premature deaths a year linked to air pollution HMG has just decided its OK for that figure to be higher  >:(

106. University of London cardiologists find exposure to nitrogen dioxide and PM2.5 and PM10 particles linked to an increase in the size of ventricles. 7th Jan 2016 3rd Aug 2018 Air pollution linked to changes in structure of the heart of the sort seen in early stages of heart failure

107. And there is no reason to expect the economics of shale drilling in the UK to be any less disastrous than in the US In fact, drilling costs should be higher in the UK, because we have “world class regulations” and the Americans have virtually none under a Trump EPA Plus….

108. Subsidy-free renewable energy projects set to soar in UK, analysts say, largely killing off new gas plants 7th Jan 2016 20th Mar 2018 Aurora Energy Research: Onshore wind and solar both viable without subsidies by 2025, unlocking £20bn of investment by 2030. Solarcentury roof for Sainsbury

109. Offshore wind will provide most of the growth from 2017 to 2025, WWF suggest, but HMG could & should also use onshore wind and solar. UK on track to phase-out coal by 2025 without the need for any new large gas plants: WWF report 7th Jan 2016 13th May 2018 Masayoshi Son, Softbank founder and CEO

110. Some conclusions

111. In the USA, the sadly numerous real-life oil-train wrecks are an allegory for the entire shale story: the debt mountain means this train is going to come off the tracks

112. It’s impossible to foresee when …but unlikely to be more than a few years

113. In the UK, the train is most unlikely to make it properly on to the tracks: polls, disruption, and mad economics suggest that too many conservative rural voters will be prepared to fight very hard indeed to stop it happening

114. In the UK, the train is most unlikely to make it properly onto the tracks: too many rural Conservative voters will be prepared to die in a ditch to stop it happening The energy-policy, economic, environmental and societal implications of these conclusions will be examined further in forthcoming blog-slideshows on the Future Today website: www.jeremyleggett.net

Hope deferred maketh the heart sick: but when the desire cometh, it is a tree of life. Pr. 13:12


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