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Author Topic: Fossil Fuel Profits Getting Eaten Alive by Renewable Energy!  (Read 3643 times)

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AGelbert

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Amicable Discussion  ;D with a fossil fueler mocking Renewable Energy as a factor in fossil fuel demand destruction:

Renewable energy=                                 =Fossil Fuelers

See my posting on what us renewable energy folks are now using for renewable powered personal transport!!

Not only can we have our renewable electrical generation, but we can have style, size and comfort as well!!

13%+ renewable electricity last I checked on the grid stats, and 20%+ from my own power generation!! Sitting at the 33% renewable mark as we speak!! Go renewables!!



See THIS post about what MKing wants to label "deflation" (LOL!).

Quote
The center of this commodity collapse is the energy market.

Chevron's earnings were down a dramatic 90% from last year. Exxon's were down 51% y-o-y, the worst quarter since early 2009.

The collapse in energy shares alone adds up to $1.3 Trillion and is expected to create a $4.4 Trillion hole in energy company earnings over the next three years.

   



The Commodity Market Wipeout


http://www.dailykos.com/s...-Commodity-Market-Wipeout

You should have sold SLB when I advised you too, Mr. day late and a dollar short.  Don't pretend I didn't do that over six months ago. I also called the first floor on the oil price. Here we are again!  Notice that the SAME floor I called then is where we are NOW.

There is a significant difference NOW, however. You will notice, if you bother to look, that tanker stocks aren't booming like the last time. This time, panic is taking hold from the REJECTION and DEFECTION part of demand destruction you (and some others here  ;)) refuse to recognize.

That said, the really big difference now from the first price floor is in the old reliable Baltic Dry Index. That was flashing super red in the summer of 2008. There it is again. 

The Baltic Dry Index is Shouting "Danger, Will Robinson!" But Are Investors Listening?
http://moneymorning.com/2...0/07/16/baltic-dry-index/

In the Commodity Market Wipeout article you will NOTE that in the summer of 2008, as is the case THIS summer, the writing was on the wall for the fun and games that arrived in the fall of 2008.

However, THIS time it is going to be a great deal more difficult for your pals at the Fed to pull the bankers and the fossil fuel industry asses out of the imminent bankruptcy from stock tanking 'toilet'.

I write this only in the hope that those not ideologically straight jacketed, like you, will see reason.

I know you won't listen and sell before you are wiped out. Too bad for you.
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AGelbert

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Nope. No sign of a bottom here. In fact, sell every rally!

WTI Crude closes on its lows, falls another 1.77% to $43.75...Oil down for the sixth straight week! :o  ;D :D


Mercury,
 


To MKing who pretends he does not know what SLB means even though he DID NOT deny holding that stock when we discussed it in December of 2014.

Schlumberger Limited.

NYSE: SLB - Aug 7 7:50 PM EDT

82.26 Price decrease1.35 (1.61%)

After-hours: 82.22 Price decrease0.04 (0.05%)

For those of you, (unlike MKing.  ;)) who have not heard of the Schlumberbger planet trashers, read on.

Read what this giant polluter and OWNER of most of the fracking machinery says about how to 'handle' environmental legislation:

Schlumberger N.V. (SLB): The BIG OIL Planet Polluter you never heard of

Yes, the above post is somewhat dated. In that post from October 24, 2014, SLB had a market cap of about 130 billion dollars. They are now at  105.8B. Easy come, easy go, eh?
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AGelbert

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Oil Majors' $60 Billion Cuts Don't Go Far Enough as Crude Slides  ;D
Quote

Each $1 change in the price of Brent affects Shell’s pretax profit by about $330 million, while for BP the impact is $300 million, according to data from the companies. Chevron’s cash flow would be hit by as much as $350 million.  ;D   Of the three, BP pumps the most crude.

http://finance.yahoo.com/...llion-cuts-101726593.html
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AGelbert

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Beyond Fossil Fuels:
The Investment Case  for Fossil Fuel Divestment 


Executive Summary

Pressure is building on institutional investors to assess their exposure to companies that extract fossil fuels. As concerns rise about the likely effects on the climate from greenhouse gas emissions, grassroots campaigns calling for fossil fuel divestment are growing.

In parallel, financial analysts are increasingly warning investors of the risks that tighter regulations on carbon dioxide emissions and falling demand for fossil fuels could make fossil fuel reserves substantially less valuable, or even 'stranded' and ultimately rendered worthless.

While trustees may be sympathetic to these concerns, and investment officers skeptical of the outcome of looming greenhouse gas regulation, there are legitimate questions about the effects on portfolio risk and returns from the partial or complete divestment of fossil fuel stocks.

So the question becomes: how should a fiduciary compare the risks to portfolios presented by stricter carbon regulations to the risks associated with reducing exposure to fossil fuel stocks?

Analysis of historical data shows that over the past seven years eliminating the fossil fuel sector from a global benchmark index would have actually had a small positive return effect. Furthermore, much of the economic effect of excluding fossil fuel stocks could have been replicated with 'fossil free' energy portfolios consisting of energy efficiency and renewable energy stocks, with limited additional tracking error and improved returns.

Impax believes that investors should consider reorienting their portfolios towards low carbon energy by replacing fossil fuel stocks with energy efficiency and renewable energy investments, thereby retaining exposure to the energy sector while reducing the risks posed by the fossil fuel sector.

IMPAX Asset Management full report:


http://gofossilfree.org/s...divestment-us-final-1.pdf

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AGelbert

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Why an Oil Glut May Lead to a New World of Energy

Posted on Aug 14, 2015 By Michael T. Klare, TomDispatch

http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/why_an_oil_glut_may_lead_to_a_new_world_of_energy_20150814

Agelbert Comment:

The causes attributed the drop in crude in this article lack one very important cause. The Rocky Mountain Institute has written about it. It's called DEMAND DEFECTION from new Renewable Energy coming on line.

Already, utilities are using less fossil fuels to generate energy because of DEMAND DEFECTION.

The Economics of Grid Defection - Distributed electricity generation, especially solar PV, is rapidly spreading and getting much cheaper. Distributed electricity storage is doing the same, thanks largely to mass production of batteries for electric vehicles. Solar power is already starting to erode some utilities’ sales and revenues.

It’s time to take the Clean Energy Would Kill the Economy show off the air once and for all.

And it is HIGH TIME we stopped calling oil an asset.

Renewable is the cheaper energy option without fossil fuel and hidden nuclear subsides.

Fossil Fuels are a LIABILITY. Using LESS of them DOES NOT "kill" the economy; it STRENGTHENS IT!

WHY? Because, while Renewable Energy increasingly takes up the energy slack, we reduce having to EAT the "externalized" costs to the environment and human health from using dirty energy.

The more I thought about climate change, the more I realized I had to do something other than publish my studies in scientific journals.

These results will not be welcome news as there are many with short-term vested interests that will want to ignore them. The Reason Brain Diseases Have Quadrupled in 21 Years.

Asset Mangers agree. Fossil fuels are a BAD INVESTMENT!

"Analysis of historical data shows that over the past seven years eliminating the fossil fuel sector from a global benchmark index would have actually had a small positive return effect. Furthermore, much of the economic effect of excluding fossil fuel stocks could have been replicated with 'fossil free' energy portfolios consisting of energy efficiency and renewable energy stocks, with limited additional tracking error and improved returns."

IMPAX Asset Management Report on the Case for Fossil Fuel divestment.
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AGelbert

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Down to $41.64.   

Wait till we cross the $40 handle! That should be fun.  :o

RE

Fun isn't a proper description of something that will bring join and discretionary income to so many. But for those of us who use these liquid fuels to explore the world, see new sights, expand our horizons, well….a picture describes our feelings best.

 



Even a cursory look at the operating costs of exploring for and extracting fossil fuels shoes BLATENTLY that the cost of the fuel for the machines does not even reach 10%. Sure, it would be a LOT HIGHER IF you fine fellows did not "EXTERNALIZE" the pollution from burning that fuel on your machines. But you do. And the gooberment you bought helps with your welfare queen creative accounting. Crookedly offloading real costs is not the same as not having them, pal!

The oil companies that are not being hurt as badly by low crude prices are the DOWNSTREAM (gougers 'R' US ) oil predators. They DO NOT explore for, or extract, fossil fuels. Downstream companies will not tend to be hit as hard, since they profit by purchasing crude and selling the refined products at a premium. These profit margins should remain fairly stable even with fluctuating oil prices.

The GOOD part, for people like me  ;D, is that today, most of the big oil companies have both large upstream and downstream operations and are referred to as integrated oil companies. So most of them are getting HAMMERED!


Your claim that an UPSTREAM (i.e. fossil fuel exploration and extraction corporation) operation is happy about low crude prices is B U L L S H I T. Upstream oil producers are hardest hit as their costs to produce oil exceed the market price and they end up operating at a loss. Integrated oil companies, while negatively impacted from their upstream operations, find the blow dampened a bit by their downstream component.

Mking, you get more math challenged every day. Good!   

Quote
"Analysis of historical data shows that over the past seven years eliminating the fossil fuel sector from a global benchmark index would have actually had a small positive return effect. Furthermore, much of the economic effect of excluding fossil fuel stocks could have been replicated with 'fossil free' energy portfolios consisting of energy efficiency and renewable energy stocks, with limited additional tracking error and improved returns."

IMPAX Asset Management Report on the Case for Fossil Fuel divestment.

The Fossil Fuel Industry has given us Degraded Democracy and Profit over Planet Pollution

Fossil Fuels are going the way of the Dodo Bird. Live with it!


http://www.scientificamerican.com/media/inline/how-to-power-the-world_sidebar.jpg

One more thing, Mking: DON'T MAKE ME PULL OUT SOME GRAPHS, PIE CHARTS AND/OR cost/benefit data  SHOWING THE FUEL PERCENTAGE OF various fossil fuel EXPLORATION AND EXTRACTION OPERATING COSTS. I understand managerial accounting reports quite well. I am familiar with the two accounting approaches your pals use: "successful efforts" (SE) method and the "full cost" (FC) method. ;D  With EITHER one, the cost of fuel is PEANUTS among ALL COSTS involved (i.e. Acquisition Costs, Exploration Costs, Development Costs and Production Costs).

You have already embarrassed yourself quite enough for today.

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AGelbert

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Fossil Fuel happy talk versus the real world
« Reply #36 on: August 19, 2015, 07:13:32 pm »
Fossil Fuel happy talk versus the Real World

FIRST, the happy talk (that excludes any mention whatsoever of the negative impact of Renewable Energy on oil corporation profits while it includes a plethora of half truths.  ;)) that fossil fueler fools  eat up and believe:

Quote
Oil Stocks That Are Worth Your Attention: Key Energy Services, Inc. (NYSE:KEG), McDermott International (NYSE:MDR), Linn Energy LLC (NASDAQ:LINE)

By Rickie Moberg - August 13, 2015

The International Energy Agency says demand for oil has rebounded to the highest levels in five years, as consumers respond to lower prices and the global economy strengthens.

However, the bad news for the big oil producers like OPEC, is that global supply remains strong and the lower prices are unlikely to significantly dent production until next year.

The IEA’s August Oil Market Report found, “the supply overhang – the difference between global supply and demand – has persisted and reached a staggering 3 million barrels per day in the second half of 2105, the widest gap in 17 years, as ever-higher flows of oil hit world markets.”
 
 However, the IEA revised up its growth forecast for oil demand by 14 per cent – or 200,000 barrels a day – to 1.6 million barrels a day this year.
 
Oil supply fell by 600,000 barrels a day in July, mainly due to production declines in non-OPEC nations.

OPEC production remained steady at three-year highs.

The IEA report argued, as lower prices and spending cuts take a toll, non-OPEC supply growth is expected to slow sharply from a 2014 record of 2.4 million barrels a day to 1.1 million barrels a day this year.

“Our latest forecast shows stronger-than-anticipated demand and non-OPEC supply growth swinging into contraction next year,” the IEA said.

“On the other side of the equation, global supply continues to grow at a breakneck pace – currently running 2.7 million barrels a day above a year earlier – despite a collapse in oil prices.

“While a rebalancing has clearly begun, the process is likely to be prolonged as a supply overhang is expected to persist through 2016 – suggesting global inventories will pile up further.”

However, the IEA outlook does not include potentially higher Iranian output in the case of sanctions being lifted.

The independent energy and resources newsletter Platts reported that OPEC production jumped by 120,000 barrels a day last month to 31.4 million barrels a day.

OPEC’s dominant player Saudi Arabia accounted for more than 80 per cent of the increase.

Key Energy Services, Inc. (NYSE:KEG)
share price decreased in the last trading session with a previous 52-week high of $6.68. The stock was trading on above-average volume. The stock traded at a volume of 3.057 million shares at a price loss of -7.87%. The share price is now down -69.17% for the past three months. Latest closing price was -46.80% below its 50-day moving average and -57.15% below its 200-day moving average.

While trading at volume higher than average, McDermott International (NYSE:MDR) climbed +8.12% at the end of recent close. Its previous 52-week high was $7.62 and moved down -37.03% over the same period, trading at a volume of 4.961 million. Shares have risen +79.23% over the trailing 6 months. The stock is currently trading -8.31% below its SMA 50 and +16.34% above its SMA 200.

Linn Energy LLC (NASDAQ:LINE) closed at $3.41, up +0.20 points or +6.23% from previous close and at a distance of -30.44% from 20-day simple moving average. Over the last 12 months, a return on equity of -20.20 percent was realized due to the financial situation and earnings per share reached a value of -$2.64. Last fiscal year, $1.25 has been paid in form of dividends to investors. Earnings are projected to move up 69.76 percent for the coming five years.
 

NOW for the REAL WORLD:   

Key Energy Services, Inc. (NYSE:KEG)


KEG 0.715 -0.044 (-5.76%

Range  0.66 - 0.79 
52 week  0.66 - 6.38 
Open  0.76 
Vol / Avg.  3.92M/3.22M 
Mkt cap  119.56M 
P/E      - 
Div/yield      - 
EPS -1.55 


McDermott International NYSE: MDR
- Aug 19 4:03 PM EDT

4.14 Price decrease 0.15 (3.50%)


Stock Trend Analysis Report

Prepared for you on Wednesday, August 19, 2015.

LINN ENERGY LLC (NASDAQ:LINE)

Smart Scan Chart Analysis confirms that a strong downtrend is in place and that the market remains negative longer term. Strong Downtrend with money management stops. A triangle indicates the presence of a very strong trend that is being driven by strong forces and insiders.

NASDAQ_LINE  Change 2.83 2.88 2.52 2.57 -0.31 gnal 
 
 
MarketClub’s Trade Triangles for LINE

long term down The long term trend has been DOWN since Oct 1st, 2014 at 29.5701

intermediate term down The intermediate term trend has been DOWN since May 11th, 2015 at 12.9031

short term down The short term trend has been DOWN since Jul 30th, 2015 at 5.4400
 
Smart Scan Analysis for LINE

Based on a pre-defined weighted trend formula for chart analysis, LINE scored -100 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend).

http://club.ino.com/trend...ae5b6f7&s=NASDAQ_LINE

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AGelbert

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What has the Wellcome Trust gained from its investments in coal, oil and gas?

Quote
The answer is that they have nose-dived in the past year due to falling share prices. By remaining wedded to the fossil fuel industry, the Wellcome Trust has lost £175m. BHP Billiton's share price slid by 45%, Shell's by 30%, Rio Tinto's by 29% and BP by 21%.


Wellcome Trust loses millions as its fossil fuel investments plunge in value


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AGelbert

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AGelbert

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Waiting for a rally as an opportunity to get short in WTI and Dow mini-futures... ;D



Not here. Bailed out last week of most market funds, and am waiting for the full Monte, the DJIA at 9000 perhaps? Then I go long on market funds in general. But it isn't even close to collapse yet, this penny ante stuff hasn't even scared out the institutional folks.

SURE. RIGHT.  ;)
You "bailed out" last week.... And we all, of course, BELIEVE you, since you have been so forthright in telling us your NAME and your PORTFOLIO holdings before this "correction".  ;D
Boy tells chimp MKing claims he isn't losing his ass in the fossil fuel stock carnage.



« Last Edit: August 25, 2015, 07:23:56 pm by AGelbert »
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AGelbert

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I don't even have a vehicle that can properly take advantage of this consumer windfall anymore. I am so prepped for expensive fuels that if they went to $50/gallon it wouldn't bother my basic transport needs at all. Pathetic. I need a monster truck to properly appreciate this winter's prices.



Agelbert NOTE: When MKing gets his new wheels/vehicle, he will decorate it to ensure we-the-people get all the "benefits" from all that "cheap" fuel he is burning willy nilly.


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AGelbert

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PANIC selling at the CLOSE!  :o           




;D


http://www.finviz.com/
« Last Edit: August 25, 2015, 06:52:56 pm by AGelbert »
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AGelbert

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Yup. DJIA and S&P down a point and change.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall-street-set-to-rebound-after-massive-selloff-futures-rally-3-2015-08-25?page=1

Woof.

Imagine how bad it would be if fundamentals had anything to do with it.

I hear ya. Expect the fed to try to engineer the following:

   


We can always hope that the reality based folks prevail.


 



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AGelbert

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AGelbert

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Excuse my crude attempt at Thom Hartmann style humor. And I don't care what that agelbert Renewable Energy Crazy says  about you, anybody that drives a Volt has a lot going for them!  :icon_sunny:

I don't drive a Volt anymore Anthony. Wrote up an entire review of the new EV in the technological section. You feeling alright?

Sorry, I don't read much of your stuff unless you are addressing me. I missed it.

You make up so much and then just assign it to me I just figured you were doing the usual deliberate misrepresentation.

But if you are listening because I am addressing you, I recommend you give up your gas guzzling ways and join those of us fighting the good fight!



Quote from: agelbert
And I haven't felt alright since 2007.  8)

For me it was 1981. January 20. That was the day I learned about American power, and the perception of it based on nothing more than who wields it, and why that matters and why those without steel in their spines are always the wrong people.

I prefer to keep listening to Obi Wan, thank you very much.

Agelbert prepares his photon torpedo gift for delivery to the fossil fuel government death star. NOTE: My X-Wing is powered by rocket fuel made from Supercritical (pressurized) CO2 split by a secret process to surround magnesium atoms (as a solvent) - no gas guzzling involved  ;D - Along with some oxygen the process produces, it Makes Great Rocket fuel as long as you have plenty of CO2 available to harvest!  I make it on Mars, just like NASA plans to do.   



And as to your claim that I misrepresent you, uh, I think said claim is rather consistent with my observation that you are a student of Karl Rove strategy...

 Karl Rove strategy #3: Accuse your opponent of your weakness  
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