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Author Topic: 🚩 Global Climate Chaos ☠️  (Read 116807 times)

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AGelbert

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Re: 🚩 Global Climate Chaos ☠️
« Reply #1260 on: March 05, 2018, 03:07:49 pm »
Millions of years ago

Quote
The Permian–Triassic extinction event (the Great Dying) may have been caused by release of methane from clathrates. An estimated 52% of marine genus became extinct, representing 96% of all marine species.

The Clathrate (methane hydrates) gun

Quote
The release of methane from the Arctic is in itself a major contributor to global warming as a result of polar amplification. Recent observations in the Siberian arctic show increased rates of methane release from the Arctic seabed.[4] Land-based permafrost, also in the Siberian arctic, was estimated in 2013 to release 17 million tonnes of methane per year – a significant increase on the 3.8 million tons estimated in 2006, and estimates before then of just 0.5 million tonnes.[10][11][12] This compares to around 500 million tonnes released into the atmosphere annually from all sources.[10]

Shakhova et al. (2008) estimate that not less than 1,400 gigatonnes (Gt) of carbon is presently locked up as methane and methane hydrates under the Arctic submarine permafrost, and 5–10% of that area is subject to puncturing by open taliks. They conclude that "release of up to 50 Gt of predicted amount of hydrate storage [is] highly possible for abrupt release at any time". That would increase the methane content of the planet's atmosphere by a factor of twelve.[13]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic_methane_emissions



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AGelbert

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Re: 🚩 Global Climate Chaos ☠️
« Reply #1261 on: March 05, 2018, 07:55:38 pm »
Arctic spring is starting 16 days earlier than a decade ago, study shows

Climate change is causing the season to start comparatively earlier the further north you go, say scientists

A snowshoe hare stands near Thule air base in Pituffik, Greenland.

The Arctic spring is arriving 16 days earlier than it did a decade ago, according to a new study which shows climate change is shifting the season earlier more dramatically the further north you go.

The research, published on Friday in the journal Scientific Reports, comes amid growing concern about the warming of Greenland, Siberia, Alaska and other far northern regions, which have recently experienced unusually prolonged and frequent midwinter temperature spikes.

The authors from the University of California, Davis, based the study on temperature records and 743 previous phenological studies looking at timings of bird migrations, flowers blooming and amphibians calling. The results showed a curve, with spring events occurring earlier further north of the equator.

“Spring is arriving earlier, and the Arctic is experiencing greater advances of spring than lower latitudes,” said lead author Eric Post, a fellow of the John Muir Institute and polar ecologist at UC Davis.

Over the past 10 years, this means the end of winter will come about a day earlier in Los Angeles, but two weeks earlier in the Arctic. The authors say the northward increase in the rate of springtime advance is roughly three times greater than indicated by previous studies.

This underlines how pronounced climate change is in the Arctic, where temperatures are rising twice as fast as the global average and ice fields are rapidly shrinking.

The warming trend has been unusually apparent in recent weeks. Although the sun has not reached the high Arctic since October, temperatures has been above freezing for 61 hours – more than three times the previous record – at Greenland’s northernmost weather monitoring station.

Martin Stendel, lead scientist of the Polar Portal and a senior researcher at the Danish Meteorological Institute, said temperatures in the central Arctic have been 4C warmer than average this winter. In February, several regions were 10C above historic norms. Despite fluctuations, he expects this trend to continue.

“Think of waves on the beach. Some are high, some are low. That’s the weather. But in the background the tide is coming in. That’s climate change. Even though the waves haven’t changed their properties, they come closer and closer to your feet,” he says. The consequences would include increased melting of the ice sheet, less sea ice, thawing permafrost both on land and under the sea, less snow and more rain even in winter.

The weather has appeared out of joint seasonally and geographically. As much of northern Europe was hit by blizzards and chills, the Danish media joked that residents should visit the Arctic special forces base at Daneborg because it is warmer there.

The Information newspaper interviewed a member of the Sirius Dog Sled Patrol at the base – one of the most northern permanent outposts of humanity – who said the high temperature had turned slow into slush and made sledding heavy.

The handful of troops at the base are used to spending months in cold and darkness. “The first day the sun doesn’t come up you think ‘Wow’,” one member told Greenland Today in 2015. “The water and the rivers stop running because they freeze. The fjord freezes too, so there are no waves or swells that lap at the shore. The small birds fly south so there is no birdsong. Only the ravens overwinter. And then a thick layer of snow comes that muffles everything even more.”

On some patrols, they encounter blizzards that last for days and temperatures as low at -51C.

But there is increasingly frequent respite in the form of warm “foehn wind”. This abrupt warming and drying of moist winds as they pass over ice-masses or mountains is commonly seen in the Alps. Similar phenomenon are the Chinook or “snow eater” of the North American Rocky Mountains; the Zonda of the South American Andes; and the Helm wind of the English Pennines.

February has seen such warmth arrive with unprecedented frequency.

One member of the Arctic Patrol described the effect as surreal. “Outside, the dogs lie on their backs boiling and we dance around in our underwear enjoying it, until the cold returns.”

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/mar/02/arctic-spring-is-starting-16-days-earlier-than-a-decade-ago-study-shows


https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends_ch4/


He that loveth father or mother more than me is not worthy of me: and he that loveth son or daughter more than me is not worthy of me. Matt 10:37

AGelbert

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Re: 🚩 Global Climate Chaos ☠️
« Reply #1262 on: March 05, 2018, 10:48:06 pm »
So Mean Methane is rising at 0.52%/year.
In AR4, Methane represents 30% of Total Net Forcings, and the annual increase represents 0.15% of Total Net Forcing.



You are the mathematician, so you are the last person that should talk about some smooth linear increase in the light of the findings of the following:

The Clathrate (methane hydrates) gun

Quote
The release of methane from the Arctic is in itself a major contributor to global warming as a result of polar amplification. Recent observations in the Siberian arctic show increased rates of methane release from the Arctic seabed.[4] Land-based permafrost, also in the Siberian arctic, was estimated in 2013 to release 17 million tonnes of methane per year – a significant increase on the 3.8 million tons estimated in 2006, and estimates before then of just 0.5 million tonnes.[10][11][12] This compares to around 500 million tonnes released into the atmosphere annually from all sources.[10]

Shakhova et al. (2008) estimate that not less than 1,400 gigatonnes (Gt) of carbon is presently locked up as methane and methane hydrates under the Arctic submarine permafrost, and 5–10% of that area is subject to puncturing by open taliks. They conclude that "release of up to 50 Gt of predicted amount of hydrate storage [is] highly possible for abrupt release at any time". That would increase the methane content of the planet's atmosphere by a factor of twelve.[13]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic_methane_emissions

Palloy, when that is triggered (all which does not have BEANS to do with the IPCC model CH4 increase predictions BECAUSE none of that massive amount of CH4 is from burning fossil fuels!), an increase by a factor of TWELVE (a MASSIVE AMOUNT GREATER than IPCC.AR4 projections) is not a pretty picture, now is it?

Watch this short video by David Wasdell. I know you think he is bonkers, which is necessary for you to cling to your "peak oil will save us" meme, but he is spot on about the TRUE climate sensitivity that you do not want to accept is a real and present existential threat to mankind NOW, not in 20 or 30 years. Your radiative forcing math is way too low, period.

 
David Wasdell: On Earth Sensitivity & Emissions

1,677 views

Nick Breeze

Published on Jan 17, 2014




The correct climate sensitivy math in charts:



He that loveth father or mother more than me is not worthy of me: and he that loveth son or daughter more than me is not worthy of me. Matt 10:37

AGelbert

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Re: 🚩 Global Climate Chaos ☠️
« Reply #1263 on: March 05, 2018, 11:49:12 pm »
Quote
Palloy, when that is triggered (all which does not have BEANS to do with the IPCC model CH4 increase predictions BECAUSE none of that massive amount of CH4 is from burning fossil fuels!), an increase by a factor of TWELVE (a MASSIVE AMOUNT GREATER than IPCC.AR4 projections) is not a pretty picture, now is it?

That Methane is currently locked away in the permafrost layer in Canada and Russia and the clathrate layer on the Arctic sea floor.  In places the permafrost is only a metre deep, but in other places it is 3,000 m deep and is in no danger of melting in the 6 months of a summer and will refreeze the next winter.

The rate of release of Methane from the permafrost isn't well known, because nobody has bothered measuring it - the Russians took only six measurements in 2017.  If you ASSUME the release is going to be GIGANTIC, then it will presumably have a gigantic effect on temperatures.  But as far as I know, nobody assumes it is going to be gigantic. There's really no reason to assume there is any problem with the positive feedbacks this century, while Peak Crude Oil has already happened and Peak Fossils is happening around now.

Keep us informed about future programs to measure the rate of release.  And don't panic.

Your claim that the methane is "locked away" is a wishful thinking cruel joke. They can tell, by the way, the methane from fossil fuel burning from the permafrost and shallow water methane (C-13 in the fracked burned stuff).

The issue is NOT about the deep methane, but the shallow water methane.

As far as you know? So you you think Shakhova et al. (2008) is baloney? Did you not read what she wrote? did you not view what she said in the video I posted? Did you not understand that the shallow water methane clathrates she was talking about are the greatest concentration of fossil fuels in the world when she said it? It DOES NOT have to be GIGANTIC to trigger the twelve fold increase, as Dr. Shakova clearly stated when she said a mere 1% would DOUBLE the atmospheric heating impact. WHY, do you keep pretending you are blind, deaf and mathematically dumb when it suits you?

Panic is not my thing, pal. I've been in all sorts of tight spots as a pilot and can handle dangerous situatiuons on short notice. I'm being logical. If you do not want to see the danger because it is inconvenient to your world view, then you are the one who needs to get real about the threat and get behind the fact that we must STOP burnng fossil fuels, like YESTERDAY, AND start a crash program to get back to 350 PPM.

Maybe you don't care whether we all become crisppy critters, but I do.



He that loveth father or mother more than me is not worthy of me: and he that loveth son or daughter more than me is not worthy of me. Matt 10:37

AGelbert

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Re: 🚩 Global Climate Chaos ☠️
« Reply #1264 on: March 06, 2018, 01:03:56 pm »
Suit Against Fossil Fuel Companies To Proceed In Federal Court

March 5th, 2018 by Steve Hanley

Last year, the cities of San Francisco and Oakland sued five  fossil fuel companies —  Chevron 🐉, ConocoPhillips🦕, ExxonMobil🦀, Shell🦖 , and BP🐲 — in California state court. Their lawsuit claims that not only are the five responsible for the costs of protecting the citizens of those cities from the higher tides and flooding that rising sea levels will cause but that they knew of the dangers their business activities cause for years, if not decades, and willfully failed to disclose that information.
  >:(


🌊              🌊 🌊             🌊 🌊 🌊
The companies, following the advice of their highly paid lawyers, sought to remove the case from state court and transfer it to federal court. The theory behind the move was that federal courts have traditionally refused to get involved in such litigation, preferring to let Congress or the presumed experts at the EPA deal with such matters. (Of course, the assumption that the EPA would do its job has been obliterated by the insurgency created by Scott Pruitt, whose life’s mission is to destroy the EPA.) The industry lawyers assumed by getting the case into federal court, that would be tantamount to a victory for their clients.

But they were wrong. Last week, federal court judge William Alsup denied a motion filed by the cities asking the case be sent back to state court in California. But Alsup’s ruling included a barb, one that won’t please the defendants at all. (You can read the entire court decision at this link, if you are the kind of person who enjoys reading impenetrable legalese.)

In his ruling, Alsup allowed the case to go forward in federal court, despite a US Supreme Court ruling in 2011 that only Congress and regulators have the power to deal with pollution, not the courts. But that case involved a public utility company. Whether the fact that the plaintiffs here are municipalities may lead to a different outcome — or not. Judge Alsup says that is an important distinction, but the USSC may disagree. The Supreme Court as currently constituted is uncommonly friendly to corporate interests and hostile to the rights of others, be they private individuals or political entities.

“[The oil companies] got what they wanted; but they may be sorry they did,” said Ken Adams, lawyer for the Center for Climate Integrity 🦋, according to a report by Grist. “We’ll see,” said the Zen master.

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/03/05/judge-allows-climate-change-suit-fossil-fuel-companies-proceed-federal-court/
He that loveth father or mother more than me is not worthy of me: and he that loveth son or daughter more than me is not worthy of me. Matt 10:37

AGelbert

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Re: 🚩 Global Climate Chaos ☠️
« Reply #1265 on: March 06, 2018, 01:44:46 pm »
No, I don't read/view everything you link to. You should learn how to EXPLAIN WHY something is interesting, then perhaps I would.  Half the time I can't make out what you are on about.

If 1% of something could double the heating impact of the atmosphere, then it is by definition GIGANTIC.

If you are not panicking about runaway climate change, then why is it you are the only person here who is going on about it all the time, and blaming everybody else for being paid by the FF companies?

The thing to panic about is Peak Oil because its impact is just about to crash the world economy and prevent any kind of industrial reboot.



I may be the only one posting about this on this forum, but for you to ASS-U-ME that means Agelbert is in an "alarmist  panic" (a favorite phrase from your friends in denier land ;)), when thousands of Climate Scientists (which, unlike you, have scientific credibility) from Woods Hole to Russia all over the planet have been documenting the threat  of the methane bomb, further evidences your woeful lack of critical thinking skills (or your cynical attempt to undermine the message on behalf of the polluting fossil fuel status quo   ).

If you have trouble understanding what I wrote (reposted below) which EXPLAINS why the methane bomb is, not just "interesting", but an existential threat to humanity, then that is your problem, not mine.

Your repeated ad hominem attacks on my person, rather than concentrating on the subject at hand, exposes your desperate straw grasping attempt to downplay the importance of this empirically determined scientific information. MOVE from the tropics to some place cold, Palloy, or you will experience the horrible heating coming your way. I recommend Siberia. You can enjoy watching Putin harvest that bonanza in CH4 and pack it onto the SEVERAL LNG carrying ice breakers Russia is getting. You might just be lucky enough to die before the heat smacks Siberia too.

REPOST: Agelbert NOTE: RE and Eddie and anyone else here besides Palloy, please comment. Palloy thinks this is not intelligible, poorly written, does not explain the facts, and is Agelbert "panic baloney". What say ye?

Agelbert NOTE: This video is rather long for most people. So, let me direct you to the small section by the Eminent Russian Scientist Dr. Natalia Shakhova (International Arctic Research Center), who calmly explains that Global Warming will cause, NOT around 2100 or 2050, but within a DECADE or less, the release of shallow water methane hydrates in the arctic.

THOSE methane hydrates ARE NOT accounted for in ANY of the IPCC RCP models, including the BAU RCP-8.5 "worse case" scenario. But more importantly, those methane hydrates have absolutely nothing to do with the release of GHG pollutants from fossil fuel burning.

So, why should we care? Isn't "peak oil" going to "save us" from burning too much fossil fuels? 

We can argue all day about that (and Palloy does!),  but let us assume, though I vigorously disagree, that, as Palloy claims with "irrefutable" statistical evidence, we will remain well below the RCP-8.5 BAU trajectory because we will "run out" of fossil fuels from some type of civilizational collapse.

Will we be "okay"?

Palloy and his "peak oil will save us" pals aren't just partly wrong; they are MASSIVELY wrong.

The Russian Scientist Dr. Natalia Shakhova explains why, and I'll get to that in a moment.

Back to the "Peak Oil will save us" crowd: You see, even if we severely reduce our fossil fuel use, as the "Peak Oil will save us" crowd religously (and erroneously) claim will happen (that will "keep us from suffering the RCP-8.5 BAU Catastrophic Climate Change scenario"), the overly conservative IPCC scenarios  DO NOT keep us from breaching the 2° C increase (from pre-industrial) LONG BEFORE the projected massive decrease in fossil fuel use from collapse takes effect (i.e. some time before 2050).

In fact, that "collapse from peak oil will save us" happy talk was debunked two and a half years ago by Ugo Bardi. He goes into the IPCC math and shows why stopping fossil fuel use won't prevent Catastrophic Climate Change. I will post it here on request to anybody who still thinks Palloy is pushing anything but a pseudo-scientific back door defense of the fossil fuel polluting status quo.

Ugo Bardi pointed out something that I did not know, but I suppose I should have. The "peak oil will save us" meme came DIRECTLY from the fossil fuel funded Climate Change g Denier Community.

It certainly makes sense that they would come up with that clever propaganda. WHY? Because, on the one hand it supports the Scarcity Meme of fossil fuels, giving the rubes a valid "supply and demand" reason to pay MORE for that "precious" fuel  ;) , while on the other (Orwellian) hand it simultaneously achieves the pretzel logic message that "you've got nothing to worry about by consuming fossil fuels as long as that loyal servant fossil fuel industry works and slaves to provide fossil fuels for you because, uh, it will run out before climate change can hurt us".

This pseudo-scientific claptrap from people like Roger Andrews is accompanied by IPCC GHG math relating to fossil fuel  burning numbers. Ugo Bardi exposes the deliberately untruthful and misleading statements, albeit using real IPCC math as a base, used to claim "peak oil will save us" in his article.

All that said, let us say that Palloy is RIGHT, Ugo Bardi and I are WRONG, and Peak Oil really will trigger such a massive collapse that 90% or more of our fossil fuel consumption will vanish.

I still do not need to bury my head in shame, write several mea culpas, and buy a hummer.     

How can that be? Didn't the Famed Doomer Mathematician Palloy from the mysterious boa filled jungle just take me to to the empirical evidence and critical thinking wood shed and beat me to a smather?


Sorry for the kitty, Palloy. I know that bothers you but I just can't help myself.  ;D

Back to the Eminent Russian Scientist Dr. Natalia Shakhova International Arctic Research Center) in the video below: She clearly says that there are, at present, about 5 gigatons of methane in the atmosphere. Methane is between 50 and 86 TIMES more potent a GHG than Carbon Dioxide. Because of that, methane has a large impact on atmospheric heating.

SO?

The amount of shallow water methane hydrates in the arctic ocean is rather massive. HOW massive? She said (Begin at the 53:47 mark) it is THE largest source of hydrocarbons in the world. She said releasing less than 1% of that would DOUBLE the warming effect on our atmosphere. According to the scientist, there are several HUNDRED to a THOUSAND gigatons of methane that is subject to being released on the way to a 2° C average temperature rise.

What does that mean? ???

It means that ALL the GHG polutants from ALL the fossil fuels that have been burned for ALL the time we have had industrial civilization are PEANUTS compared to the MASSIVE ACCELERATED ATMOSPHERIC HEATING that the release of  even a small portion of those methane hydrates will trigger. The IPCC has NOT included the release of even a tiny fraction of those methane hydrates in ANY of their RCP scenarios, including the RCP-8.5. What the IPCC has accounted for is SOME methane release from the arctic tundra, which is dangerous in and of itself, but orders of magnitude less dangerous than the methane hydrates in the arctic ocean. 

Are you getting this?

The "peak oil will save us" claim is totally irrelevant. Even the overly conservative IPCC has already accepted that we will reach, and breach, the 2° C increase soon. So NOBODY can guarantee that the methane bomb will not go off. After that methane bomb goes off, all of us that don't have a bunker near the poles become crispy critters.

We needed to stop burning fossil fuels back in 1982, give or take a few years, in order to avoid the baked in 2° C.

What should we do as a civilization (besides telling the "peak oil will save us" crowd that they need a shrink or a prison cell )?

The best we can do is stop all buring of fossil fuels and begin a crash program to get our Carbon Didoxide PPM back to around 350 PPM or we are all dead soon. BAU (Business As Usual) can stop in its track tomorrow from a massive collapse and the 2° C increase is STILL BAKED IN. Peak oil will not save anybody or anything. Every day we delay will simply hasten our demise.

 
Arctic Death Spiral and the Methane Time Bomb

Let me direct you to the small section by the Eminent Russian Scientist Dr. Natalia Shakhova (International Arctic Research Center), who calmly explains that Global Warming will cause, NOT around 2100 or 2050, but within a DECADE or less, the release of shallow water methane hydrates in the arctic. Begin at the 53:47 mark


EW | HD | Feb 01, 2018 | 436 views | by FFF


He that loveth father or mother more than me is not worthy of me: and he that loveth son or daughter more than me is not worthy of me. Matt 10:37

AGelbert

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Re: 🚩 Global Climate Chaos ☠️
« Reply #1266 on: March 06, 2018, 02:04:37 pm »
Huge waves 🌊🌊🌊 slam into Puerto Rico, force evacuations

By Danica Coto | AP 

March 5 at 11:09 AM

SNIPPET:

SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico — Waves nearly 30 feet (9 meters) high from a U.S. winter storm slammed into Puerto Rico on Monday, forcing authorities to evacuate dozens of families and close roads and schools across the U.S. territory.

Huge waves downed palm trees, knocked over cement benches and forced curious crowds to flee as saltwater flooded streets and homes along Puerto Rico’s northern and western coasts. More than a dozen streets remained closed, along with several beaches and two dozen schools in low-lying areas, a move that affected more than 6,000 students.

The swell is the largest to hit Puerto Rico in more than a decade, and it is generating waves bigger than those produced by Hurricane Maria when it hit nearly six months ago as a Category 4 storm, said Gabriel Lojero, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in San Juan.

Full article:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/travel/huge-waves-slam-into-puerto-rico-force-evacuations/2018/03/05/574c12a6-208a-11e8-946c-9420060cb7bd_story.html

Agelbert NOTE: These waves are from the very same storm that slammed the East coast and caused a contanership to lose 70 containers from huge waves. This is the beginning of the Global Warming caused giant ocean wave activity predicted by Hansen et al.

Learn more about this threat to our civilization from Global Warming:
Climate Change, Blue Water Cargo Shipping and Predicted Ocean Wave Activity: PART 1 of 3
He that loveth father or mother more than me is not worthy of me: and he that loveth son or daughter more than me is not worthy of me. Matt 10:37

AGelbert

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Re: 🚩 Global Climate Chaos ☠️
« Reply #1267 on: March 06, 2018, 02:50:35 pm »
The thing to panic about is Peak Oil because its impact is just about to crash the world economy and prevent any kind of industrial reboot.
You're right about the impact of Peak Oil, but Biosphere Disruption (aka Climate Change) can cause the extinction of most complex lifeforms on Earth, so it is a far bigger problem.

Also, Peak Oil is completely unavoidable, all we can do it change the timing a little one way or the other, and brace ourselves for the impact.  While Biosphere Disruption has already begun, we still have at least in theory the ability to avoid the worst effects.

Really, though, it is a false dilemma.  The good solutions for Peak Oil also happen to be the good solutions for Biosphere Disruption.  They just are bad for continuing a BAU consumerist lifestyle.

Thank you for your serious and well reasoned comment. I understand that you see this as six of one and half a dozen of the other, but there is a key issue here that negates the "peak oil will save us" meme as an excuse to keep buring fossi lfuels until they are all used up.

I cede the floor to Ugo Bardi:


"Peak Oil will save us from Climate Change:" a meme that never went viral

Thursday, October 8, 2015

The idea that peak oil will save us from climate change has been occasionally popping up in the debate, but it never really gained traction for a number of good reasons. One is that, in many cases, the proponents were also climate science deniers and that made them scarcely credible. Indeed, if climate change does not exist (or if it is not caused by human activities), then how is it that you are telling us that peak oil will save us from it? Add to this that many hard line climate science deniers are also peak oil deniers (since, as well known, both concepts are part of the great conspiracy), then, it is no surprise that the meme of "peak oil will save us" never went viral.

That doesn't mean that we shouldn't ask the question of whether we have sufficient amounts of fossil fuel to generate a truly disastrous climate change. The debate on this point goes back to the early 2000s. At the beginning, the data were uncertain and it was correctly noted that some of the IPCC scenarios overestimated what we are likely to burn in the future. But, by now, I think the fog has cleared.  It is becoming increasingly clear that fossil fuel depletion is not enough, by far, to save us from climate change.

Nevertheless, some people still cling to the old "peak oil will save us" meme. In a recent post on "Energy Matters", Roger Andrews argues that:

All of the oil and gas reserves plus about 20% of the coal reserves could be consumed without exceeding the IPCC’s trillion-tonne carbon emissions limit. 

Now, that sounds reassuring and surely many people would understand it in the sense that we shouldn't worry at all about burning oil and gas. Unfortunately, that's just not true and Andrews' statement is both overoptimistic and misleading.

One problem is that the "2 degrees limit" is a last ditch attempt to limit the damage created by climate change, but there is no certainty that staying beyond it will be enough to prevent disaster.

 

Then, there is a problem with Andrew's use of the term "reserves," to be understood as "proven reserves". Proven reserves include only those resources that are known to exist and to be extractable at present; and that's surely much less than all what could be extracted in the future. The parameter that takes into account also probably existing resources is called "Ultimate Recoverable Resources" or URRs

So, let's consider a world fossil URR estimate that many people would consider as "pessimistic," the one by Jean Laherrere that I already discussed in a previous post.

It turns out that we have enough oil and gas that, together, they can produce enough CO2 to reach the 2 degrees limit; even though, maybe, not more. There follows that, if we really wanted to burn all the oil and gas known to be extractable, to stay withing the limit we would need to stop burning coal - zero burning, zilch -  starting from tomorrow! Not an easy thing to do, considering that coal produces more than 40% of the energy that powers the world's electrical grid and, in some countries, much more than that. It is true that coal is the dirtiest of the three fossil fuels and must be phased out faster than oil and gas, but the consumption of all three must go down together, otherwise it will be impossible to remain under the limit.

In the end, we have here one more of the many illusions that surround the climate issue; one that could be dangerous it were to spread. However, in addition to the other problems described here, Andrew's post falls into the same trap of many previous attempts: it uses the data produced by climate science to try to demonstrate its main thesis, but only after having defined climate science as "Vodoo Science." No way: this is not a meme that will go viral.

http://cassandralegacy.blogspot.it/2015/04/climate-change-can-seneca-collapse-save.html

JD, if you haven't perused this detailed study by David Wasdell, I recommend it. It clearly shows the climate sensitivity (radiative forcing) is much higher than the low balled IPCC scenario model math.


Here are the facts.

Climate Dynamics:

Facing the Harsh Realities of Now

Climate Sensitivity, Target Temperature & the Carbon Budget
Guidelines for Strategic Action


Apollo-Gaia Project

Director: David Wasdell

It is with the utmost concern that we draw your attention to the fundamental methodological flaw in the determination of the value of Climate Sensitivity that is embedded in the Summary for Policymakers of the Scientific Workgroup of the 5th Assessment Report of the IPCC. The error was replicated in the Reports of Workgroups 2 and 3 and carried forward into the Synthesis Report. It has been used as the given basis for every subsequent publication. Our radical analysis of Climate Dynamics has generated a new and robust value of "Earth System Sensitivity" which has profound implications for:

֍ The relationship between temperature change and cumulative carbon emissions.

֍ The calculation of "available carbon budget".

֍ The evaluation of the INDCs.

֍ The terms of reference of COP21 in Paris (30 November - 11 December 2015).

֍ The future global strategy for climate stabilisation.
 
Our analysis is published in dual media (triple-screen video and fully illustrated PDF). These can be used separately or in combination.

Video of the above and Table of Contents at link below.




http://www.apollo-gaia.org/harsh-realities-of-now.html
He that loveth father or mother more than me is not worthy of me: and he that loveth son or daughter more than me is not worthy of me. Matt 10:37

AGelbert

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Re: 🚩 Global Climate Chaos ☠️
« Reply #1268 on: March 06, 2018, 02:55:30 pm »
Eddie said:

Quote

I don't think you're wrong, AG. In fact you and Palloy are both right, and we're arguing about two very serious problems, both of which are potentially devastating.

I don't think anyone can call the exact"when" as to when credit fails and the economic system crashes, or exactly when the rising seas will topple the Statue of Liberty. Both these problems are very real, and the inevitable consequences of either one is rather a bad outcome.

Even if the credit system crashes next week, I'm not at all sure that Palloy is correct in his belief that the effects of that on climate will be in time to prevent the kind of warming you expect. I certainly hope he's right, and I give him points for making a cogent argument.

All of us are made more knowledgeable by your debates. I'd encourage each of you to give the other full respect.

Thank you, Eddie. If you ever get an hour or so, please watch the full presentation by David Wasdell. It is quite an eye opener and the methane bomb is not even part of his radiative forcing math!

Quote
Climate Dynamics:

Facing the Harsh Realities of Now

Climate Sensitivity, Target Temperature & the Carbon Budget

Guidelines for Strategic Action

Apollo-Gaia Project

Director: David Wasdell

It is with the utmost concern that we draw your attention to the fundamental methodological flaw in the determination of the value of Climate Sensitivity that is embedded in the Summary for Policymakers of the Scientific Workgroup of the 5th Assessment Report of the IPCC. The error was replicated in the Reports of Workgroups 2 and 3 and carried forward into the Synthesis Report. It has been used as the given basis for every subsequent publication. Our radical analysis of Climate Dynamics has generated a new and robust value of "Earth System Sensitivity" which has profound implications for:

֍ The relationship between temperature change and cumulative carbon emissions.

֍ The calculation of "available carbon budget".

֍ The evaluation of the INDCs.

֍ The terms of reference of COP21 in Paris (30 November - 11 December 2015).

֍ The future global strategy for climate stabilisation.


http://www.apollo-gaia.org/harsh-realities-of-now.html

He has clear, explanatory charts, including the following two:




He that loveth father or mother more than me is not worthy of me: and he that loveth son or daughter more than me is not worthy of me. Matt 10:37

AGelbert

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Re: 🚩 Global Climate Chaos ☠️
« Reply #1269 on: March 07, 2018, 02:59:53 pm »
Trump 🦀 and Fossil Fuel Fascist friends 🐉🦕🦖 are doing everything they can, whether they know it or not, to destroy all hope for future generations:

Trump touts report US is set to become world’s top oil producer

BY JOHN BOWDEN - 03/06/18 08:42 AM EST 
   
Trump touts report US is set to become world’s top oil producer

President Trump on Tuesday celebrated a report from the International Energy Agency which claims the U.S. will become the world's leading oil producer by 2023.

full article:

http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/376898-trump-touts-report-us-is-set-to-become-worlds-top-oil-producer


Some brave people🕊 are fighting this insanity in the courts. I wish them well. Trump 🦀 will do all he can to destroy them.

Court denies Trump admin’s plea to stop kids’ climate lawsuit

BY TIMOTHY CAMA - 03/07/18 02:11 PM EST 
   
Court denies Trump admin’s plea to stop kids’ climate lawsuit 

A federal appeals court Wednesday rejected the Trump administration’s attempt to dismiss a lawsuit filed by a group of kids who want to force the government to do more to fight climate change.

full article:

http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/377219-court-denies-trump-admins-plea-to-stop-kids-climate-lawsuit



He that loveth father or mother more than me is not worthy of me: and he that loveth son or daughter more than me is not worthy of me. Matt 10:37

AGelbert

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Re: 🚩 Global Climate Chaos ☠️
« Reply #1270 on: March 07, 2018, 07:16:50 pm »
Really, though, it is a false dilemma.  The good solutions for Peak Oil also happen to be the good solutions for Biosphere Disruption.  They just are bad for continuing a BAU consumerist lifestyle.

Thank you for your serious and well reasoned comment. I understand that you see this as six of one and half a dozen of the other, but there is a key issue here that negates the "peak oil will save us" meme as an excuse to keep buring fossi lfuels until they are all used up.

...

JD, if you haven't perused this detailed study by David Wasdell, I recommend it. It clearly shows the climate sensitivity (radiative forcing) is much higher than the low balled IPCC scenario model math.

...

http://www.apollo-gaia.org/harsh-realities-of-now.html
I see it more of a six-of-one, half-a-gross of the other situation... or in other words, a proper response to climate change will make peak oil irrelevant.  As David Wasdell puts it at the end of the above article,

"It is time to say NO to the dark and toxic energy of the underworld. It is time to say YES to the pure and sustainable energy of light. Photo-dynamics can out-power, out-pace and out-resource any amount of energy we can get from fossil sources. It is time to break free from our bondage to the past. It is time to embrace the freedom of the Sun. It is time to usher in the dawn of Solar Society.

The transition from fossil dependency to solar dependency is an extraordinary shift for our species. It can be compared to the introduction of photosynthesis in the evolution of plants, which could then take solar energy to transform basic chemicals into more complex molecules. Today we are able to take solar energy and transform it directly into electricity, power, heat, and light. That provides the basis for a metamorphosis. We are not caught in the death throes of civilisation, merely the demise of an inappropriate mode of civilisation. We are experiencing the birth pangs of a new form of humanity."



     🕊

Let us hope it is not too late. We don't have much time left (see global temperature 🌡️ anomaly maps for today below).



He that loveth father or mother more than me is not worthy of me: and he that loveth son or daughter more than me is not worthy of me. Matt 10:37

AGelbert

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Re: 🚩 Global Climate Chaos ☠️
« Reply #1271 on: March 07, 2018, 11:08:03 pm »
EcoWatch

'Crazy, Crazy Stuff': Arctic Winter Warmest on Record 👀

March 7, 2018

By Lorraine Chow

SNIPPET:


The Arctic just experienced its warmest winter on record, scientists say. In the dead of winter, temperatures at the North Pole approached the melting point, the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) in Boulder, Colorado found.

"It's just crazy, crazy stuff," NSIDC director Mark Serreze told the Associated Press. "These heat waves—I've never seen anything like this."

Several areas in the Arctic have reported record-high heat. As the AP reported, Cape Morris Jesup, in the northernmost point of Greenland, saw temperatures normally seen in May. Not only that, 15 different Arctic weather stations clocked temperatures 10 degrees above normal .

Data from climatologist Brian Brettschneider of the International Arctic Research Center at the University of Alaska Fairbanks show that the Arctic Circle in Barrow, Alaska, was 18 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than normal in February, and the entire winter, which spans from December to February, averaged 14 degrees above normal.

NASA remarked that temperatures have soared in the Arctic for the fourth winter in a row: "The heat, accompanied by moist air, is entering the Arctic not only through the sector of the North Atlantic Ocean that lies between Greenland and Europe, as it has done in previous years, but is also coming from the North Pacific through the Bering Strait."

"We have seen winter warming events before, but they're becoming more frequent and more intense," noted Alek Petty, a sea ice researcher at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland.

The region also experienced record-low sea ice for this time of year, with open water areas expanding rapidly in the Bering Sea off Alaska's west coast.

Climate scientist Zack Labe, who frequently shares striking graphs of the region's anomalies, illustrated the Bering Sea's disappearing ice pack.

Full article with graphics:


https://www.ecowatch.com/arctic-winter-temperatures-2543954665.html

😨🔫

He that loveth father or mother more than me is not worthy of me: and he that loveth son or daughter more than me is not worthy of me. Matt 10:37

AGelbert

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Re: 🚩 Global Climate Chaos ☠️
« Reply #1272 on: March 08, 2018, 03:01:58 pm »
The Fossil Fuel Mania Insanity Spreads


In the 03/07/2018 edition:

U.S. Navy Releases Proposal Request for Coast Guard’s New Heavy Polar Icebreaker

Dominican Republic to Join Caribbean Energy Exploration Rush

Pemex 😈 Invites Partners Offshore

Does Galveston Need A $14 Billion Storm Barrier? Agelbert NOTE: I increased the font on this one because it is TYPICAL Fossil Fuel Fascist 🐉🦕🦖 socializing the costs  of Climate change while pocketing the heavily subsidized by we-the-people welfare queen profits 💵 from the very same crap that is causing those Climate change costs! The 14 billion dollar barrier they want we-the-people to PAY for is for the sole purpose of PROTECTING OIL REFINERIES!


http://gcaptain.com/galveston-need-14-billion-storm-barrier/

U.S. Navy Releases Proposal Request for Coast Guard’s New Heavy Polar Icebreaker

By gCaptain on Mar 06, 2018 07:08 pm

uscgc polar starThe U.S. Navy, in collaboration with the U.S. Coast Guard, has released a request for proposal for the advance procurement and detail design work for the USCG’s first new heavy polar icebreaker in more than 40 years. The RFP, which was issued March 2, also includes options for the detail design and construction (DD&C) of […]

The post U.S. Navy Releases Proposal Request for Coast Guard’s New Heavy Polar Icebreaker appeared first on gCaptain.

Read in browser » http://gcaptain.com/u-s-navy-releases-proposal-request-for-coast-guards-new-heavy-polar-icebreaker/


Dominican Republic to Join Caribbean Energy 🦖 Exploration Rush

By Bloomberg on Mar 06, 2018 04:11 pm

Photo: By Brian McDonald / Shutterstock

SNIPPET:

By Ezra Fieser (Bloomberg) — The Dominican Republic expects to draw interest from energy titans BP Plc and Exxon Mobil Corp. when it opens the country to natural gas and oil exploration for the first time later this month, joining a push by governments across the Caribbean to develop energy production.

The government plans to open two land blocks for oil exploration and two offshore blocks for natural gas exploratory drilling by the end of March, said Energy and Mining Minister Isa Conde in an interview in Santo Domingo. An Exxon spokeswoman said in an email that the company does not comment on future business plans. BP did not respond to an email seeking comment.

“This is completely virgin territory for us,” Conde said. “But we would not be going forward if we had not received assurances from international companies 🦖 and investors 🦀 that there was substantial interest.’’

Full article:  :(

http://gcaptain.com/dominican-republic-join-caribbean-energy-exploration-rush/

Pemex ☠️ Invites Partners 🦀 Offshore

March 6, 2018 by Reuters

Photo by curraheeshutter, Shutterstock

SNIPPET:

by Marianna Parraga (Reuters) – Mexico’s state-run Pemex [PEMX.UL] might bring partners into two heavy crude oilfields in the Gulf’s shallow waters, the company’s chief said on Tuesday, move that could help ease a lack of heavy barrels in the Atlantic basin.

After nine bidding rounds in just three years and a presidential election scheduled in July, Mexico’s oil regulator has started a campaign to convince Pemex and foreign investors that this is the moment to develop much needed extra-heavy oil reserves.

“We are looking to increase production, including heavy crude, so we might put on the table some farmouts mainly for those fields that need secondary recovery strategies,” Pemex’s CEO Carlos Trevino said during a news conference during the CERAWeek energy conference in Houston.

On Monday, Trevino said Pemex was looking for partners for its deepwater Nobilis-Maximino and Ayin-Batsil projects.

Full farticle: 🤬


http://gcaptain.com/pemex-invites-partners-offshore/

😨 🔫 

The Fossil Fuelers 🦖 DID THE Clean Energy  Inventions suppressing, Climate Trashing, human health depleting CRIME,   but since they have ALWAYS BEEN liars and conscience free crooks 🦀, they are trying to AVOID   DOING THE TIME or     PAYING THE FINE!     Don't let them get away with it! Pass it on!   
He that loveth father or mother more than me is not worthy of me: and he that loveth son or daughter more than me is not worthy of me. Matt 10:37

AGelbert

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Re: 🚩 Global Climate Chaos ☠️
« Reply #1273 on: March 09, 2018, 02:43:22 pm »
 


March 8, 2018

When Does Weather 🌥 🌦 🌧 🌨 🌩 Become Climate Change🌪?

As extreme weather intensifies around the word with record winds, rain storms, and flooding, is it time to build infrastructure to handle the coming storms?


http://therealnews.com/t2/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=31&Itemid=74&jumival=21310%27%20style=%27color:#000;

He that loveth father or mother more than me is not worthy of me: and he that loveth son or daughter more than me is not worthy of me. Matt 10:37

AGelbert

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Re: 🚩 Global Climate Chaos ☠️
« Reply #1274 on: March 11, 2018, 02:15:08 pm »

Arctic Has Warmest Winter 🚩 On Record 😟


March 10th, 2018 by Cynthia Shahan

The Arctic winter comes and goes — but ever so differently as warming trends prevail. Increasing temperatures and glacial caving continue as Mother Nature gets hotter — at the top of our world as elsewhere.

James Balog has an immense range of visuals on this subject. Once long ago a skeptic himself, he transformed and has been documenting the loss of our glaciers (see ICE: Portraits of Vanishing Glaciers). Balog has been patiently filming the cavings for years.



A recent update from The Guardian notes that the increasing temperature from recent weather data is worrying the scientists who firmly watch the effects of climate change and know what they could mean for human wellbeing. The report passes along the message that the Arctic region just experienced its warmest winter on record.

“Sea ice hit record lows for the time of year, new US weather data revealed on Tuesday.” The situation reminds me of the old adage about Mother Nature. Mother Nature can’t be fooled, but some of us are foolish about our small planet’s challenges.

“It’s just crazy, crazy stuff,” said Mark Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado, who has been studying the Arctic since 1982. “These heat waves – I’ve never seen anything like this.”

It is unquestionable that the truth is so frightening that some avoid the credible information altogether. Still, day by day, we who read CleanTechnica keep our eyes out for new information and act to turn the trend in a more positive direction. An earlier post (linked above) describes that, in the next 10 or so years, “13 large global cities are facing temperature rises that could exceed 2° degrees Celsius (3.6° Fahrenheit), according to a new report from the Urban Climate Change Research Network at Columbia University.”

The Guardian continues: “Experts say what’s happening is unprecedented, part of a global warming-driven cycle that probably played a role in the recent strong, icy storms in Europe and the north-eastern US.

“The land weather station closest to the North Pole, at the tip of Greenland, spent more than 60 hours above freezing in February. Before this year, scientists had seen the temperature there rise above freezing in February only twice before, and then extremely briefly. Last month’s record-high temperatures have been more like those typical of May, said Ruth Mottram, a climate scientist at the Danish Meteorological Institute.

“Of nearly three dozen different Arctic weather stations, 15 of them were at least 10F (5.6C) above normal for the winter. ‘The extended warmth really has staggered all of us,’ Mottram said.”

For those who have not watched the film Chasing Ice, take a look now.


[embed=640,412]<iframe width="640" height="412" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/hC3VTgIPoGU" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>[/embed]

Related Stories:

Temperature Rise 🌡️ Over 2° Celsius (3.6° Fahrenheit) Possible In 13 Global Cities 🚩 In 2020s, Study Finds


As The Glaciers Of The Swiss Alps Melt 🚩, Hydroelectric Firms Look Toward Wind Power


Arctic Permafrost Stores More Mercury Than The Rest Of The World’s Soils, The Oceans, & The Atmosphere Combined … Two Times Over
He that loveth father or mother more than me is not worthy of me: and he that loveth son or daughter more than me is not worthy of me. Matt 10:37

 

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