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Author Topic: Global Warming is WITH US  (Read 29481 times)

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AGelbert

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Re: Global Warming is WITH US
« Reply #1245 on: February 21, 2018, 01:22:33 pm »


It’s Bizarrely Warm at the Northernmost Land Weather Station

Brian Kahn

Yesterday 10:56am Filed to: THE ARCTIC IS SCREWED  :(

SNIPPET:

DMI scientists recorded temperatures crossing the freezing threshold at the world’s northernmost land-based weather station, located in Greenland. An initial analysis shows that temperatures there rose an astonishing 39 degrees Fahrenheit in four hours on Sunday night. They’ve stayed above freezing through Tuesday. This is hardly the only instance of a weather station going haywire due to the heat.

Sea ice in the Barents Sea, which sits to the east of Greenland, has also started to shrink at a time when ice is usually still climbing towards its maximum extent. The same process has played out on the Pacific side of the Arctic as well, where sea ice has been wiped out in the Bering Sea. InsideClimate News reported that the sea lost a third of its ice in just eight days.

Full article:

https://earther.com/it-s-bizarrely-warm-at-the-northernmost-land-weather-st-1823153892

Hope deferred maketh the heart sick: but when the desire cometh, it is a tree of life. Pr. 13:12

AGelbert

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Re: Global Warming is WITH US
« Reply #1246 on: February 22, 2018, 06:08:13 pm »
February 22, 2018

Beta Coronel - 350.org

Last month, we won a huge victory when New York City and State committed to divesting their pension funds from fossil fuels. Not only that, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio launched a lawsuit against the top fossil fuel companies for the damage climate change has caused the people of New York.

New York’s decision was a turning point in the fight against the fossil fuel industry--and it was a victory won through years of sustained local campaigning. This is what the power of the people looks like.

That’s why this year, we’re launching Fossil Free: a people-powered push to pass resolutions stopping new fossil fuel projects and demanding a fast and just transition to 100% renewable energy for all in cities and towns across the U.S.


With your help, we can win more victories like the one in New York, and build the fossil free world we need.

Thank you,

Beta🕊

https://act.350.org/donate/fossilfreebeta/

Hope deferred maketh the heart sick: but when the desire cometh, it is a tree of life. Pr. 13:12

AGelbert

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Hope deferred maketh the heart sick: but when the desire cometh, it is a tree of life. Pr. 13:12

AGelbert

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Re: Global Warming is WITH US
« Reply #1248 on: February 24, 2018, 03:12:33 pm »
Ozone Shield NOT Safe Scientists Say   

Posted on February 14, 2018, by Radio Ecoshock

https://www.ecoshock.org/2018/02/ozone-shield-not-safe-scientists-say.html
Hope deferred maketh the heart sick: but when the desire cometh, it is a tree of life. Pr. 13:12

AGelbert

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Re: Global Warming is WITH US
« Reply #1249 on: February 25, 2018, 07:11:51 pm »
Bering Sea loses half its sea ice over two weeks

Livable Planet

PRI's The World

February 22, 2018 · 5:15 PM EST

By Carolyn Beeler

SNIPPET:

The Bering Sea has lost roughly half its sea ice over the past two weeks and has more open water than ever measured at this time of year.

Full article:

https://www.pri.org/stories/2018-02-22/bering-sea-loses-half-its-sea-ice-over-two-weeks
Hope deferred maketh the heart sick: but when the desire cometh, it is a tree of life. Pr. 13:12

AGelbert

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Re: Global Warming is WITH US
« Reply #1250 on: February 25, 2018, 07:26:27 pm »

Hope deferred maketh the heart sick: but when the desire cometh, it is a tree of life. Pr. 13:12

AGelbert

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Re: Global Warming is WITH US
« Reply #1251 on: February 25, 2018, 10:02:26 pm »
I’m a climate scientist. And I’m not letting trickle-down ignorance 🦖 win.

How to fight ⚡ the Trump 🦀 administration's darkness

By Ben Santer July 5, 2017

Ben Santer is a climate scientist and a member of the National Academy of Sciences.

SNIPPET 1:

I’ve been a mountaineer for most of my life. Mountains are in my blood. In my early 20s, while climbing in France, I fell into a crevasse on the Milieu Glacier, at the start of the normal route on the Aiguille d’Argentiere. Remarkably, I was unhurt. From the grip of the banded ice, I saw a thin slit of blue sky 120 feet above me. The math was simple: Climb 120 feet. If I reached that slit of blue sky, I would live. If I didn’t, I’d freeze to death in the cold and dark.

Now, more than 40 years later, it feels like I’m in a different kind of darkness — the darkness of the Trump administration’s scientific ignorance. This is just as real as the darkness of the Milieu Glacier’s interior and just as life-threatening. This time, I’m not alone. The consequences of this ignorance affect every person on the planet.

Imagine, if you will, that you spend your entire professional life trying to do one thing to the best of your ability. In my case, that one thing is to study the nature and causes of climate change. You put in a long apprenticeship. You spend years learning about the climate system, computer models of climate and climate observations. You start filling a tool kit with the statistical and mathematical methods you’ll need for analyzing complex data sets. You are taught how electrical engineers detect signals embedded in noisy data. You apply those engineering insights to the detection of a human-caused warming signal buried in the natural “noise” of Earth’s climate. Eventually, you learn that human activities are warming Earth’s surface, and you publish this finding in peer-reviewed literature.


SNIPPET 2:

You encounter valid scientific criticism. You also encounter nonscientific criticism from powerful forces of unreason🦖, who harbor no personal animus toward you but don’t like what you’ve learned and published — it’s bad for their 🦖 business 🦀.


SNIPPET 3:

Over time, the evidence for a discernible human influence on global climate becomes overwhelming. The evidence is internally and physically consistent. It’s in climate measurements made from the ground, from weather balloons and from space — measurements of dozens of different climate variables made by hundreds of different research groups around the world. You write more papers, examine more uncertainties and participate in more scientific assessments. You tell others what you’ve done, what you’ve learned and what the climatic “shape of things to come” might look like if we do nothing to reduce emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases. You speak not only to your scientific peers but also to a wide variety of audiences, some of which are skeptical about you and everything you do. You enter the public arena and make yourself accountable.

After decades of seeking to advance scientific understanding, reality suddenly shifts, and you are back in the cold darkness of ignorance. The ignorance starts at the top, with President Trump 🦀. It starts with untruths and alternative facts. The untruth that climate change is a “hoax” engineered by the Chinese. The alternative fact that “nobody really knows” whether climate change is real. These untruths and alternative facts are repeated again and again. They serve as talking points for other members of the administration. From the Environmental Protection Agency administrator, who has spent his career fighting climate change science, we learn the alternative fact that satellite data shows “a leveling off of warming ” over the past two decades. The energy secretary tells us the fairy tale that climate change is primarily due to “ocean waters and this environment that we live in.” Ignorance trickles down from the president to members of his administration, eventually filtering into the public’s consciousness.

Getting out of this metaphorical darkness is going to be tough.

Full article: 


https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/posteverything/wp/2017/07/05/im-a-climate-scientist-and-im-not-letting-trickle-down-ignorance-win/
Hope deferred maketh the heart sick: but when the desire cometh, it is a tree of life. Pr. 13:12

AGelbert

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Re: Global Warming is WITH US
« Reply #1252 on: February 27, 2018, 07:31:08 pm »
EcoWatch

Scientists Stunned by Off-the-Charts Arctic Temperatures, Record-Low Sea Ice     

By  Lorraine Chow

Feb. 26, 2018 12:50PM EST

https://www.ecowatch.com/arctic-climate-change-2539897203.html
Hope deferred maketh the heart sick: but when the desire cometh, it is a tree of life. Pr. 13:12

AGelbert

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Re: Global Warming is WITH US
« Reply #1253 on: February 27, 2018, 07:46:44 pm »
 
Make Nexus Hot News part of your morning: click here

Feb 26, 2018

Rising Temperatures Imperil Winter Sports Industry (VIDEO)

Declining snowfall threatens billions in lost revenue.


https://nexusmedianews.com/rising-temperatures-imperil-winter-sports-industry-2b23b35cdde6
Hope deferred maketh the heart sick: but when the desire cometh, it is a tree of life. Pr. 13:12

AGelbert

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Re: Global Warming is WITH US
« Reply #1254 on: March 03, 2018, 03:44:33 pm »
Agelbert NOTE: Just for the Hell of it, HERE are some recent Fossil Fuel BOOM (AND WORLDWIDE ECONOMY BOOM) EVIDENCE articles Palloy, and all those who labor under the PATHETIC belief that a 'collapse of civilization from LACK of fossil fuels will save us from the horrendously deleterious existential threat of Catastrophic Climate Change' , DON'T READ. 


Supertankers Sailing from U.S. to Cut Time, Money and Traders

February 26, 2018 by Bloomberg

SNIPPET:

The first fully laden supertanker sailed from America earlier this month, leaving for China from LOOP’s deep-water facility — the only one in the U.S. capable of filling some of the industry’s biggest tankers. In the wake of an end to a four decade-ban on exports and as OPEC curbed output to clear a glut, a stream of shipments from the Gulf Coast headed east as major buyers such as India and South Korea looked farther for supplies.

Full article:

http://gcaptain.com/supertankers-sailing-from-u-s-to-cut-time-money-and-traders/


How Shell Hid a ‘Whale’ Well Before Placing Mexican Oil Bet

March 2, 2018 by Reuters

SNIPPET for the brain impaired true believers  in 'peak oil':

The company, like many of its peers, was forced to dramatically slash spending in recent years because of weak oil prices, with its exploration budgets hit particularly hard. Now that prices have recovered to a near three-year high of around $65 a barrel, firms feel more confident to once again invest in expensive offshore developments.

Shell owns a 60 percent stake in the Whale discovery with the remaining 40 percent held by Chevron, which is mainly shale-focused.

The reservoir is located in the Perdido area, which has become a heartland of Shell’s deepwater activities in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico.

Full article:

http://gcaptain.com/how-shell-hid-a-whale-well-before-placing-mexican-oil-bet/


Tanker Operator, Master Plead Guilty to Oil and Garbage Dumping Crimes in U.S.

February 27, 2018 by gCaptain

http://gcaptain.com/tanker-operator-master-plead-guilty-to-oil-and-garbage-dumping-crimes-in-u-s/


DP World May Develop $1.2 Billion Port at Banana on Congo Coast

March 2, 2018 by Bloomberg

http://gcaptain.com/dp-world-may-develop-1-2-billion-port-at-banana-on-congo-coast/

Trump Administration Sets March Date for Largest Oil and Gas Lease Auction in U.S. History

February 16, 2018 by Reuters

SNIPPET:

The Interior Department said it would offer 77.3 million acres (31.3 mln hectares) offshore Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida for oil and gas development, an auction that includes all available unleased areas in the Gulf of Mexico. The blocks are from 3 to 231 miles (5 to 372 km) offshore and in waters 9 to 11,115 feet (3 to 3,390 meters) deep.

full article:

http://gcaptain.com/trump-administration-sets-march-date-largest-oil-gas-lease-auction-us-history/


NGO Shipbreaking Platform: 80% of Tonnage Sold for Scrap in 2017 Ended Up on South Asia’s Beaches

February 22, 2018 by Mike Schuler

http://gcaptain.com/ngo-shipbreaking-platform-80-of-tonnage-sold-for-scrap-in-2017-ended-up-on-south-asias-beaches/


U.S. drillers boost oil rig count to highest nearly three years: Baker Hughes

COMMODITIES FEBRUARY 9, 2018 / 1:23 PM

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-rigs-baker-hughes/u-s-drillers-boost-oil-rig-count-to-highest-nearly-three-years-baker-hughes-idUSKBN1FT2MC



PHOTOS: Teekay’s New Icebreaker LNG Carrier ‘Eduard Toll’

November 10, 2017 by Mike Schuler

SNIPPET for Palloy (and anyone else who shares his fantasy filled world view) who claims "you can't say Russia is outputting more FF because because, uh, Russia does not publish their Fossil Fuel production levels".   

Construction of the Eduard Toll began in early 2016 at the DSME shipyard in South Korea.

The vessel is the first of Teekay LNG Partners’ six 172,000 cubic meter ARC7 LNG carrier newbuildings to be constructed for the Yamal LNG project in the Russian Arctic.

Yamal is expected to produce 16.5 million metric tons of LNG annually by 2019, which will require a total of 15 ARC7 icebreaker LNG carriers. The first shipment from the project is planned for this month, with the receiver rumored to be China.


full article:

http://gcaptain.com/photos-teekays-new-icebreaker-lng-carrier-eduard-toll/

Gulf Coast Shipping Boom: U.S. Oil Exports Pour Into Worldwide Markets

February 8, 2018 by Reuters

SNIPPET for those poor wishful thinking fools who think less fossil fuels are being produced because, uh, we are 'running out' (any day now, yep, sure, right...):

Between 2010 and 2017, U.S. oil production rose from 5.5 million barrels a day to 10 million bpd – approaching a record set in 1970 – as shale fields in west Texas and North Dakota lured massive new drilling investments. That brings national production in line with Saudi Arabia and close to top-producer Russia’s 10.9 million barrels a day.

Saudi Arabia cut output last year as part of OPEC’s 2016 deal to reduce supply – after losing a price war with U.S. shale producers that created a global glut.

Most forecasts show U.S. crude output growing about 500,000 to 600,000 barrels per day through the end of 2018, said David Fyfe, chief economist at global commodity trading firm Gunvor Group in Geneva, Switzerland. The U.S. Energy Department is even more optimistic, now expecting growth to rise by 1.2 million bpd – hitting 11 million bpd by year-end.

full article:

http://gcaptain.com/gulf-coast-shipping-boom-us-oil-exports-pour-into-worldwide-markets/

Agelbert NOTE: What does all the above have to do with the claim I have made SEVERAL TIMES (Reality is WORSE than the WORSE CASE BAU RCP-8.5 IPCC scenario! ) , that Palloy always tries to hair split his way around? 

It's all about Radiative Forcing, folks. That "8.5" number on the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) stands for approximately 8.5 watts per square meter.  We are NOW getting MORE THAN THAT. We will NOT get LESS than that for over TWO HUNDRED YEARS, even if we stopped burning fossil fuels TODAY.

Palloy cannot accept that scientifically predicted HARD REALITY. The reason he cannot accept that is because, if he did, he would realize that a civilizational collapse from 'lack of fossil fuels' (LOL!) is not going to do a God Damned THING to slow down the Sixth Great Extinction we are now in. So, he makes happy talk stuff up about the IPCC models that simply DO NOT NOW, and never have, accounted for in order to keep pushing his 'collapse will save us' happy talk. This Happy Talk is nothing but an unprincipled and heinous back door defense of the fossil fuel profit over planet polluting 🦖 status quo , PERIOD.


IPCC RCP 8.5 business as usual scenario is too conservative. ALL the climate models low ball global warming (see below).


Agelbert NOTE: The problem humanity has is NOT lack of hydrocarbons; it is the adamant and totally unreasonable refusal to accept the FACT that we have ALREADY exceeded the "carbon budget" for a FOUR DEGREE C rise in average global temperature, never mind a TWO DEGREE C "target".

The worse case scenario the IPCC came up with (BAU RCP-8.5) is too conservative a projection of the heat increase (it is MUCH, MUCH WORSE!).
Climate Dynamics:
Facing the Harsh Realities of Now

Climate Sensitivity, Target Temperature & the Carbon Budget
Guidelines for Strategic Action

Apollo-Gaia Project

Director: David Wasdell

It is with the utmost concern that we draw your attention to the fundamental methodological flaw in the determination of the value of Climate Sensitivity that is embedded in the Summary for Policymakers of the Scientific Workgroup of the 5th Assessment Report of the IPCC. The error was replicated in the Reports of Workgroups 2 and 3 and carried forward into the Synthesis Report. It has been used as the given basis for every subsequent publication. Our radical analysis of Climate Dynamics has generated a new and robust value of "Earth System Sensitivity" which has profound implications for:

֍ The relationship between temperature change and cumulative carbon emissions.

֍ The calculation of "available carbon budget".

֍ The evaluation of the INDCs.

֍ The terms of reference of COP21 in Paris (30 November - 11 December 2015).

֍ The future global strategy for climate stabilisation.
 
Our analysis is published in dual media (triple-screen video and fully illustrated PDF). These can be used separately or in combination.


Video of the above and Table of Contents at link below.

Agelbert NOTE: If you care about humanity, you will watch it and pass it on to friends and family. If, because you have been paid or propagandized to think the continued burning of fossil fuels is "good for mankind", you either don't watch it, or do watch it so you can to claim "it is global warming hoax" propaganda (or if if you are more "sophisticated", like certain pseudo-scientists who claim IPCC scenarios "have taken all the possible warming feedback loops into consideration in the models and we can keep burning fossil fuels for a few more decades"), you doom yourself and future generations (i.e. you are willfully stupid).

Don't be stupid. The fossil fuel industry murdering crooks and liars do not own you.

http://www.apollo-gaia.org/harsh-realities-of-now.html



Anyone telling you that fossil fuels are "running out" needs to read the published figures from the oil and gas producing nations of this planet. The emissions are INCREASING, NOT "leveling off or decreasing". PLUS, tropical rain forests AND permafrost melt are now ADDING to the carbon emissions! GHG is GHG. no matter where it is coming from! You are NOT going to turn this heat engine off easily. Several heat adding feedbacks we have triggered by burning too much fossil fuels are NOT in our control, PERIOD.

Where in God's good earth these fossil fueler wishful thinking FOOLS think that we are somehow going to get a handle on this massive heating NOW IN THE Global Warming radiative forcing INERTIA pipeline, even if we stopped all hydrocarbon burning today (rather than the present tragic reality of increased burning), is a mystery to me. They certainly DO NOT get this idea from empirical evidence or sound science.

This stubborn clinging to a happy talk myth about some "quick recovery from fossil fuel burning caused globle warming" is a testament to the extremes people in denial of an extinction threat reality will go to. 

And for the propagandist liars that know the truth and push the happy talk for money, I can only say that they are greater fools than those naive folks that believe the fossil fuel fascist funded happy talk lies and distortions. These bought and paid for propagandists are behaving as STUPIDLY as any person possibly can. You STUPID, MONEY LOVING BASTARDS deserve the Darwin Evolutionary Dead End Award.



ENJOY THE OIL AND GAS BOOM, SUCKERS

The Fossil Fuelers 🦖 DID THE Clean Energy  Inventions suppressing, Climate Trashing, human health depleting CRIME,   but since they have ALWAYS BEEN liars and conscience free crooks 🦀, they are trying to AVOID   DOING THE TIME or     PAYING THE FINE!     Don't let them get away with it! Pass it on!   


Hope deferred maketh the heart sick: but when the desire cometh, it is a tree of life. Pr. 13:12

AGelbert

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Re: Global Warming is WITH US
« Reply #1255 on: March 03, 2018, 10:51:48 pm »
Arctic Death Spiral and the Methane Time Bomb


EW | HD | Feb 01, 2018 | 436 views | by FFF

Many thanks to:
Peter Sinclair - Greenman Studios
David Suzuki - David Suzuki Foundation
Dr. Guy McPherson - Professor Emeritus University of Arizona.
Hope deferred maketh the heart sick: but when the desire cometh, it is a tree of life. Pr. 13:12

AGelbert

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Re: Global Warming is WITH US
« Reply #1256 on: March 04, 2018, 07:07:16 pm »
Agelbert NOTE: This video is rather long for most people. So, let me direct you to the small section by the Eminent Russian Scientist Dr. Natalia Shakhova (International Arctic Research Center), who calmly explains that Global Warming will cause, NOT around 2100 or 2050, but within a DECADE or less, the release of shallow water methane hydrates in the arctic.

THOSE methane hydrates ARE NOT accounted for in ANY of the IPCC RCP models, including the BAU RCP-8.5 "worse case" scenario. But more importantly, those methane hydrates have absolutely nothing to do with the release of GHG pollutants from fossil fuel burning.

So, why should we care? Isn't "peak oil" going to "save us" from burning too much fossil fuels? 

We can argue all day about that (and Palloy does!),  but let us assume, though I vigorously disagree, that, as Palloy claims with "irrefutable" statistical evidence, we will remain well below the RCP-8.5 BAU trajectory because we will "run out" of fossil fuels from some type of civilizational collapse.

Will we be "okay"?

Palloy and his "peak oil will save us" pals aren't just partly wrong; they are MASSIVELY wrong.

The Russian Scientist Dr. Natalia Shakhova explains why, and I'll get to that in a moment.

Back to the "Peak Oil will save us" crowd: You see, even if we severely reduce our fossil fuel use, as the "Peak Oil will save us" crowd religously (and erroneously) claim will happen (that will "keep us from suffering the RCP-8.5 BAU Catastrophic Climate Change scenario"), the overly conservative IPCC scenarios  DO NOT keep us from breaching the 2° C increase (from pre-industrial) LONG BEFORE the projected massive decrease in fossil fuel use from collapse takes effect (i.e. some time before 2050).

In fact, that "collapse from peak oil will save us" happy talk was debunked two and a half years ago by Ugo Bardi. He goes into the IPCC math and shows why stopping fossil fuel use won't prevent Catastrophic Climate Change. I will post it here on request to anybody who still thinks Palloy is pushing anything but a pseudo-scientific back door defense of the fossil fuel polluting status quo.

Ugo Bardi pointed out something that I did not know, but I suppose I should have. The "peak oil will save us" meme came DIRECTLY from the fossil fuel funded Climate Change g Denier Community.

It certainly makes sense that they would come up with that clever propaganda. WHY? Because, on the one hand it supports the Scarcity Meme of fossil fuels, giving the rubes a valid "supply and demand" reason to pay MORE for that "precious" fuel  ;) , while on the other (Orwellian) hand it simultaneously achieves the pretzel logic message that "you've got nothing to worry about by consuming fossil fuels as long as that loyal servant fossil fuel industry works and slaves to provide fossil fuels for you because, uh, it will run out before climate change can hurt us".

This pseudo-scientific claptrap from people like Roger Andrews is accompanied by IPCC GHG math relating to fossil fuel  burning numbers. Ugo Bardi exposes the deliberately untruthful and misleading statements, albeit using real IPCC math as a base, used to claim "peak oil will save us" in his article.

All that said, let us say that Palloy is RIGHT, Ugo Bardi and I are WRONG, and Peak Oil really will trigger such a massive collapse that 90% or more of our fossil fuel consumption will vanish.

I still do not need to bury my head in shame, write several mea culpas, and buy a hummer.     

How can that be? Didn't the Famed Doomer Mathematician Palloy from the mysterious boa filled jungle just take me to to the empirical evidence and critical thinking wood shed and beat me to a smather?


Sorry for the kitty, Palloy. I know that bothers you but I just can't help myself.  ;D

Back to the Eminent Russian Scientist Dr. Natalia Shakhova International Arctic Research Center) in the video below: She clearly says that there are, at present, about 5 gigatons of methane in the atmosphere. Methane is between 50 and 86 TIMES more potent a GHG than Carbon Dioxide. Because of that, methane has a large impact on atmospheric heating.

SO?

The amount of shallow water methane hydrates in the arctic ocean is rather massive. HOW massive? She said (Begin at the 53:47 mark) it is THE largest source of hydrocarbons in the world. She said releasing less than 1% of that would DOUBLE the warming effect on our atmosphere. According to the scientist, there are several HUNDRED to a THOUSAND gigatons of methane that is subject to being released on the way to a 2° C average temperature rise.

What does that mean? ???

It means that ALL the GHG polutants from ALL the fossil fuels that have been burned for ALL the time we have had industrial civilization are PEANUTS compared to the MASSIVE ACCELERATED ATMOSPHERIC HEATING that the release of  even a small portion of those methane hydrates will trigger. The IPCC has NOT included the release of even a tiny fraction of those methane hydrates in ANY of their RCP scenarios, including the RCP-8.5. What the IPCC has accounted for is SOME methane release from the arctic tundra, which is dangerous in and of itself, but orders of magnitude less dangerous than the methane hydrates in the arctic ocean. 

Are you getting this?

The "peak oil will save us" claim is totally irrelevant. Even the overly conservative IPCC has already accepted that we will reach, and breach, the 2° C increase soon. So NOBODY can guarantee that the methane bomb will not go off. After that methane bomb goes off, all of us that don't have a bunker near the poles become crispy critters.

We needed to stop burning fossil fuels back in 1982, give or take a few years, in order to avoid the baked in 2° C.

What should we do as a civilization (besides telling the "peak oil will save us" crowd that they need a shrink or a prison cell )?

The best we can do is stop all buring of fossil fuels and begin a crash program to get our Carbon Didoxide PPM back to around 350 PPM or we are all dead soon. BAU (Business As Usual) can stop in its track tomorrow from a massive collapse and the 2° C increase is STILL BAKED IN. Peak oil will not save anybody or anything. Every day we delay will simply hasten our demise.

 
Arctic Death Spiral and the Methane Time Bomb

Let me direct you to the small section by the Eminent Russian Scientist Dr. Natalia Shakhova (International Arctic Research Center), who calmly explains that Global Warming will cause, NOT around 2100 or 2050, but within a DECADE or less, the release of shallow water methane hydrates in the arctic. Begin at the 53:47 mark


EW | HD | Feb 01, 2018 | 436 views | by FFF

The Fossil Fuelers 🦖 DID THE Clean Energy  Inventions suppressing, Climate Trashing, human health depleting CRIME,   but since they have ALWAYS BEEN liars and conscience free crooks 🦀, they are trying to AVOID   DOING THE TIME or     PAYING THE FINE!     Don't let them get away with it! Pass it on!   

 




« Last Edit: March 05, 2018, 12:38:36 pm by AGelbert »
Hope deferred maketh the heart sick: but when the desire cometh, it is a tree of life. Pr. 13:12

AGelbert

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Re: Global Warming is WITH US
« Reply #1257 on: March 05, 2018, 03:07:49 pm »
Millions of years ago

Quote
The Permian–Triassic extinction event (the Great Dying) may have been caused by release of methane from clathrates. An estimated 52% of marine genus became extinct, representing 96% of all marine species.

The Clathrate (methane hydrates) gun

Quote
The release of methane from the Arctic is in itself a major contributor to global warming as a result of polar amplification. Recent observations in the Siberian arctic show increased rates of methane release from the Arctic seabed.[4] Land-based permafrost, also in the Siberian arctic, was estimated in 2013 to release 17 million tonnes of methane per year – a significant increase on the 3.8 million tons estimated in 2006, and estimates before then of just 0.5 million tonnes.[10][11][12] This compares to around 500 million tonnes released into the atmosphere annually from all sources.[10]

Shakhova et al. (2008) estimate that not less than 1,400 gigatonnes (Gt) of carbon is presently locked up as methane and methane hydrates under the Arctic submarine permafrost, and 5–10% of that area is subject to puncturing by open taliks. They conclude that "release of up to 50 Gt of predicted amount of hydrate storage [is] highly possible for abrupt release at any time". That would increase the methane content of the planet's atmosphere by a factor of twelve.[13]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic_methane_emissions



Hope deferred maketh the heart sick: but when the desire cometh, it is a tree of life. Pr. 13:12

AGelbert

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Re: Global Warming is WITH US
« Reply #1258 on: March 05, 2018, 07:55:38 pm »
Arctic spring is starting 16 days earlier than a decade ago, study shows

Climate change is causing the season to start comparatively earlier the further north you go, say scientists

A snowshoe hare stands near Thule air base in Pituffik, Greenland.

The Arctic spring is arriving 16 days earlier than it did a decade ago, according to a new study which shows climate change is shifting the season earlier more dramatically the further north you go.

The research, published on Friday in the journal Scientific Reports, comes amid growing concern about the warming of Greenland, Siberia, Alaska and other far northern regions, which have recently experienced unusually prolonged and frequent midwinter temperature spikes.

The authors from the University of California, Davis, based the study on temperature records and 743 previous phenological studies looking at timings of bird migrations, flowers blooming and amphibians calling. The results showed a curve, with spring events occurring earlier further north of the equator.

“Spring is arriving earlier, and the Arctic is experiencing greater advances of spring than lower latitudes,” said lead author Eric Post, a fellow of the John Muir Institute and polar ecologist at UC Davis.

Over the past 10 years, this means the end of winter will come about a day earlier in Los Angeles, but two weeks earlier in the Arctic. The authors say the northward increase in the rate of springtime advance is roughly three times greater than indicated by previous studies.

This underlines how pronounced climate change is in the Arctic, where temperatures are rising twice as fast as the global average and ice fields are rapidly shrinking.

The warming trend has been unusually apparent in recent weeks. Although the sun has not reached the high Arctic since October, temperatures has been above freezing for 61 hours – more than three times the previous record – at Greenland’s northernmost weather monitoring station.

Martin Stendel, lead scientist of the Polar Portal and a senior researcher at the Danish Meteorological Institute, said temperatures in the central Arctic have been 4C warmer than average this winter. In February, several regions were 10C above historic norms. Despite fluctuations, he expects this trend to continue.

“Think of waves on the beach. Some are high, some are low. That’s the weather. But in the background the tide is coming in. That’s climate change. Even though the waves haven’t changed their properties, they come closer and closer to your feet,” he says. The consequences would include increased melting of the ice sheet, less sea ice, thawing permafrost both on land and under the sea, less snow and more rain even in winter.

The weather has appeared out of joint seasonally and geographically. As much of northern Europe was hit by blizzards and chills, the Danish media joked that residents should visit the Arctic special forces base at Daneborg because it is warmer there.

The Information newspaper interviewed a member of the Sirius Dog Sled Patrol at the base – one of the most northern permanent outposts of humanity – who said the high temperature had turned slow into slush and made sledding heavy.

The handful of troops at the base are used to spending months in cold and darkness. “The first day the sun doesn’t come up you think ‘Wow’,” one member told Greenland Today in 2015. “The water and the rivers stop running because they freeze. The fjord freezes too, so there are no waves or swells that lap at the shore. The small birds fly south so there is no birdsong. Only the ravens overwinter. And then a thick layer of snow comes that muffles everything even more.”

On some patrols, they encounter blizzards that last for days and temperatures as low at -51C.

But there is increasingly frequent respite in the form of warm “foehn wind”. This abrupt warming and drying of moist winds as they pass over ice-masses or mountains is commonly seen in the Alps. Similar phenomenon are the Chinook or “snow eater” of the North American Rocky Mountains; the Zonda of the South American Andes; and the Helm wind of the English Pennines.

February has seen such warmth arrive with unprecedented frequency.

One member of the Arctic Patrol described the effect as surreal. “Outside, the dogs lie on their backs boiling and we dance around in our underwear enjoying it, until the cold returns.”

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/mar/02/arctic-spring-is-starting-16-days-earlier-than-a-decade-ago-study-shows


https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends_ch4/


Hope deferred maketh the heart sick: but when the desire cometh, it is a tree of life. Pr. 13:12

AGelbert

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Re: Global Warming is WITH US
« Reply #1259 on: March 05, 2018, 10:48:06 pm »
So Mean Methane is rising at 0.52%/year.
In AR4, Methane represents 30% of Total Net Forcings, and the annual increase represents 0.15% of Total Net Forcing.



You are the mathematician, so you are the last person that should talk about some smooth linear increase in the light of the findings of the following:

The Clathrate (methane hydrates) gun

Quote
The release of methane from the Arctic is in itself a major contributor to global warming as a result of polar amplification. Recent observations in the Siberian arctic show increased rates of methane release from the Arctic seabed.[4] Land-based permafrost, also in the Siberian arctic, was estimated in 2013 to release 17 million tonnes of methane per year – a significant increase on the 3.8 million tons estimated in 2006, and estimates before then of just 0.5 million tonnes.[10][11][12] This compares to around 500 million tonnes released into the atmosphere annually from all sources.[10]

Shakhova et al. (2008) estimate that not less than 1,400 gigatonnes (Gt) of carbon is presently locked up as methane and methane hydrates under the Arctic submarine permafrost, and 5–10% of that area is subject to puncturing by open taliks. They conclude that "release of up to 50 Gt of predicted amount of hydrate storage [is] highly possible for abrupt release at any time". That would increase the methane content of the planet's atmosphere by a factor of twelve.[13]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic_methane_emissions

Palloy, when that is triggered (all which does not have BEANS to do with the IPCC model CH4 increase predictions BECAUSE none of that massive amount of CH4 is from burning fossil fuels!), an increase by a factor of TWELVE (a MASSIVE AMOUNT GREATER than IPCC.AR4 projections) is not a pretty picture, now is it?

Watch this short video by David Wasdell. I know you think he is bonkers, which is necessary for you to cling to your "peak oil will save us" meme, but he is spot on about the TRUE climate sensitivity that you do not want to accept is a real and present existential threat to mankind NOW, not in 20 or 30 years. Your radiative forcing math is way too low, period.

 
David Wasdell: On Earth Sensitivity & Emissions

1,677 views

Nick Breeze

Published on Jan 17, 2014




The correct climate sensitivy math in charts:



Hope deferred maketh the heart sick: but when the desire cometh, it is a tree of life. Pr. 13:12

 

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