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Author Topic: Global Warming is WITH US  (Read 18090 times)

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AGelbert

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Re: Global Warming is WITH US
« Reply #1050 on: September 17, 2017, 10:54:26 pm »
Agelbert NOTE: Published 7 years ago but more important than ever!

Global Warmimg: How HOT can it get? 


Global warming: how hot can it get?

Peter Carter

Published on Mar 29, 2010

The climate change damage to human human population health and survival will depend on the extreme of the heating (not the average), but this is virtually ignored.
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AGelbert

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Re: Global Warming is WITH US
« Reply #1051 on: September 18, 2017, 12:57:48 pm »
Above: GOES-16 view of Hurricane Jose, Tropical Storm Maria, and Tropical Depression Lee at 10:45 am EDT September 17, 2017. Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB. GOES-16 data is considered preliminary and non-operational.

Maria Threatens Leeward Islands; Jose's Surf Will Batter Northeast U.S. Beaches

Bob Henson  ·  September 17, 2017, 12:48 PM EDT

SNIPPET:

There is nothing obvious in Maria’s environment to prevent strengthening through Wednesday afternoon, when interaction with Puerto Rico and/or Hispaniola may disrupt the storm. Both the HWRF and COAMPS-TC models predicted in their Sunday morning runs that Maria would be a Category 4 hurricane on Wednesday afternoon, and Maria will most likely be at Category 3 or 4 strength when making its closest approach to Puerto Rico on Wednesday.

The Rapid Intensification Index from the 12Z Sunday SHIPS model run gave Maria a 42% chance of gaining 65 knots of intensity over the next three days, which would bring Maria to the threshold of Category 4 strength by Wednesday.

full article:

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/maria-threatens-leeward-islands-joses-surf-will-batter-northeast-beaches
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AGelbert

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Re: Global Warming is WITH US
« Reply #1052 on: September 18, 2017, 05:01:24 pm »
Climate Change in the Arctic and Model Projections (2017)


13,290 views

Climate State

Published on May 22, 2017

This video with scope on permafrost melting, highlights some of the new developments of our understandings, of what happens in the Arctic due to global warming.

The Woods Hole Research Center (WHRC), at the University of Alaska Fairbanks May 11, 2017. Professor of Geophysics Vladimir Romanovsky discusses the impact of Arctic permafrost thaw.

Greenland Petermann Ice Shelf Melting at Unbelievable Rate

Tom Messenger

Published on Jan 9, 2017

New scientific data convinces a once skeptical scientist to believe. This amazing documentary reveals the plight of Greenland's Ice Shelf in depth.




 
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AGelbert

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Re: Global Warming is WITH US
« Reply #1053 on: September 18, 2017, 08:22:43 pm »


Six Storms Bracket North America: 3 hurricanes, a tropical storm, depression & a disturbance

Paul Beckwith

Published on Sep 17, 2017

At this moment we have three hurricanes (Jose, Maria, & Otis), a tropical storm (Norma), a tropical depression (Lee) and a tropical disturbance (yet unnamed) surrounding North America.

I discuss the latest projections, and teach you the tools to track these storms yourself. Hurricane Jose is expected to curve northward off the US coast, while Hurricane Maria is likely to rapidly strengthen and bring pain to many Caribbean Islands hurt severely by Hurricane Irma.

Please donate at http://paulbeckwith.net to support my videos, and suggest topics that you want me to cover in future videos:)

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AGelbert

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Re: Global Warming is WITH US
« Reply #1054 on: September 19, 2017, 02:41:54 pm »
Figure 2. Hurricane Hugo caused severe damage to Puerto Rico’s El Yunque rain forest on September 18, 1989. Image credit: NOAA Photo Library.


Above: Infrared GOES-16 image of Hurricane Maria as of 10:51 am EDT Tuesday, September 19, 2017. Image credit: RAMMB / CIRA@CSU.

Maria Headed for Catastrophic Hit on Puerto Rico, St. Croix
Bob Henson  ·  September 19, 2017, 11:41 AM EDT

SNIPPET:

After a direct hit on the small Lesser Antilles island of Dominica on Monday night, followed by a brief weakening, Hurricane Maria reintensified to Category 5 strength with winds of 160 mph on Tuesday morning. Maria will likely be a catastrophic Category 5 or high-end Category 4 storm when it hits the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday morning. Preliminary reports out of Dominica indicate that Maria likely did catastrophic damage there. The northern eyewall of Maria also grazed the southwest corner of Guadaloupe Island on Monday night, and heavy damage was reported there. The core of the hurricane missed Montserrat, Saba, and St. Kitts and Nevis, but these islands have been experiencing sustained tropical storm-force winds and heavy rain squalls.

Maria’s encounter with Dominica bruised the storm slightly, with the top winds falling to 155 mph and the central pressure rising from 924 mb to 934 mb between 11 pm Monday and 5 am Tuesday. This took the storm briefly down to a Category 4 rating. However, an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft on Tuesday morning found a falling pressure and rising winds. Maria’s central pressure was down to 927 mb, and the winds were back up to 160 mph as of 11 am EDT Tuesday. Maria passed just east of Buoy 42060 late Tuesday morning; the buoy reported a pressure of 956 mb and sustained winds of 74 mph, gusting to 94 mph, at 11:10 am EDT Tuesday.

Unfortunately for the islands in its path, Maria’s appearance on satellite imagery is truly spectacular, and the outer spiral bands of the hurricane are already lashing the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, as seen on long- range radar and CatherineHope’s Webcam on St. Croix.


Figure 1. GOES-16 visible image of Maria at 10:15 am Tuesday, September 19, 2017. At the time, Maria was a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds, a central pressure of 927 mb, and a small "pinhole" eye with a diameter of 10 nautical miles. Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB. GOES-16 data is considered preliminary and non-operational.

The dreaded "pinhole" eye  

Maria developed a tiny “pinhole” eye during its rapid intensification burst on Monday, with a diameter of 8 nautical miles (nm). The hurricane has maintained a small eye so far on Tuesday, with the diameter fluctuating between 7 nm and 10 nm (10 nm = 11.5 miles). Hurricanes that develop pinhole eyes often intensify into some of the strongest storms we observe, since they concentrate their wind energy around a narrow ring surrounding the tiny eye. These small eyes tend to be unstable, resulting in an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) shortly after the pinhole eye is observed. Some other examples of tropical cyclones with pinhole eyes with a diameter less than 10 nm (thanks go to Michael Cavaliere, Howard Diamond, and Boris Konon):

Hurricane Wilma - 2005 (175 MPH / 882 MB) - Western Caribbean - 1.5 nm
Hurricane Iris – 2001 (140 MPH / 950 MB) - Western Caribbean – 3 nm
Hurricane Beta - 2005 (115 MPH / 962 MB) - Nicaragua - 5 nm
Hurricane Dennis - 2005 (120 MPH / 930 MB) - Florida - 4 nm
Hurricane Charley - 2004 (150 MPH / 941 MB) - Florida - 2.5 nm
Hurricane Opal - 1995 (150 MPH / 919 MB) - Florida - 5 nm
Hurricane Andrew - 1992 (165 MPH / 921 MB) - Florida - 6 nm
Typhoon Forrest - 1983 (165 MPH / 883 MB) - Philippines - 4 nm
Cyclone Tracy - 1974 (125 MPH / 950 MB) - Australia - 7 nm

Full article with videos, more graphics and much more

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/maria-headed-catastrophic-hit-puerto-rico-st-croix

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AGelbert

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Re: Global Warming is WITH US
« Reply #1055 on: September 19, 2017, 07:25:12 pm »
Image by Andrea Booher / FEMA

Over $2 Billion In US Fire Suppression Costs From This Year’s Wildfire Season

September 19th, 2017 by James Ayre

SNIPPET:

That figure represents a substantial increase from the previous record year of 2015, which saw the agency spend $1.7 billion on fire suppression efforts.

To be clear here, these figures relate solely to US Forest Service costs and don’t include figures from federal, state, or local firefighting agencies.

Altogether, 2017 has been an unprecedented year in the US (and in many other parts of the world as well) with regard to forest fires. At this point, it should be clear that the predictions that wildfires will become increasingly common and severe over the course of the century as a result of anthropogenic climate change have something substantial to them.

Full article:

https://cleantechnica.com/2017/09/19/2-billion-suppression-costs-years-wildfire-season-us/

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AGelbert

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Re: Global Warming is WITH US
« Reply #1056 on: September 19, 2017, 08:45:44 pm »


Koch Brothers Fuel the GOP's War on Climate Science


September 19, 2017

Investigative journalist Bruce Livesey explains that the Koch brothers have used their enormous wealth to force Republicans to toe the line on climate change denial



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AGelbert

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Re: Global Warming is WITH US
« Reply #1057 on: September 19, 2017, 11:04:16 pm »


Unprecedented by David Ray Griffin: the best on the CO2 emergency (long).


Peter Carter

Published on Feb 2, 2017

Short promo.Two climate books by David Ray Griffin. Unprecedented CO2 Crisis (2015) and Unprecedented Climate Mobilization (2016), co-author Elizabeth Woodworth.

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AGelbert

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Re: Global Warming is WITH US
« Reply #1058 on: September 20, 2017, 01:46:24 pm »
CLIMATE LAB BOOK

Are the models “running too hot”?   


September 20, 2017 GCMs, observations Ed Hawkins

Recent media headlines have again discussed the issue of whether climate models are overly sensitive to greenhouse gases. These headlines have misinterpreted a study by Millar et al. which was discussing carbon budgets to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

A recent study by Medhaug et al. analysed the issue of how the models have performed against recent observations at length and largely reconciled the issue. An overly simplistic comparison of simulated global temperatures and observations might suggest that the models were warming too much, but this would be wrong for a number of reasons.

In the Medhaug et al. paper they show the range of models (blue shading in figure with median in light blue), compared with the HadCRUT4 observations and their estimated uncertainty (orange shading with light orange line). There are a number of well understood reasons why the light orange line might not follow the light blue line, namely: radiative forcings, variability, observational biases and choice of reference period.

Figure 5 from Medhaug et al. showing CMIP5 simulations and observations (HadCRUT4) of global temperature.

Radiative forcings: The simulations were produced using observed information on sources of radiative forcing up to 2005, and made various assumptions for subsequent forcings. For example, the simulations assumed no volcanic eruptions after 2005, whereas the real world did have some eruptions. In addition, the sun dimmed slightly and this was not included. Retrospectively we can estimate the effects of these assumptions on the simulations, and this moves the light blue line to the mid-blue line. In other words, if the models had known about future forcings they would have been closer to the observations.

Variability: It is also understood that natural fluctuations in the climate (e.g. ENSO, PDO) can temporarily offset or enhance the warming during certain periods. These effects can also be accounted for, producing the dark blue line. In other words, if the models had produced the same phase of variability as the real world then, again, they would have been closer to the observations.

Observational biases: We also understand that our observations are not perfect. The HadCRUT4 dataset has relatively few observations over the Arctic and also uses sea-surface temperatures over the ocean, whereas the model analysis uses simulated air temperatures everywhere. Accounting for these issues moves the observations warmer, to the dark orange line. In other words, in an ‘apples-with-apples’ comparison, the observations and models are closer together.

When accounting for these three factors together, the dark blue and dark orange lines now show a very similar warming trend – the models and observations have been reconciled and there is no clear evidence from the recent period that the models are therefore ‘running too hot’. About 1/3 of the apparent discrepancies are due to each of these three factors.

Choice of baseline: One further subtlety is the choice of ‘baseline’. Medhaug et al used a 1961-90 reference period, whereas the IPCC AR5 chose 1986-2005. This difference can also slightly move the relative position of the observations within the model spread higher or lower. There is no perfect choice.


About Ed Hawkins
Climate scientist in the National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS) at the University of Reading. IPCC AR5 Contributing Author. Can be found on twitter too: @ed_hawkins

http://www.climate-lab-book.ac.uk/2017/are-the-models-running-too-hot/

Agelbert NOTE: IOW, the "models may be running too hot" BALONEY is more disingenuous spurious propaganda cooked up by the fossil fuel industry crooks and liars to undermine the credibility of climate scientists.

If anything, the models are too conservative. This type of Orwellian pitch has been par for the course for the fossil fuel industry for several decades.

If you doubt that, just consider the fact that they were the ones that came up with that CRAP about a "new ice age".

So, expect more wailing and moaning about "alarmist" climate scientists from the bought and paid for propagandists from the fossil fuel industry  , for the "welfare of humanity"(see Orwell), of course.




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Re: Global Warming is WITH US
« Reply #1060 on: September 20, 2017, 11:10:06 pm »

Maria Back Over Water After Devastating Hit to Puerto Rico

Dr. Jeff Masters  ·  September 20, 2017, 5:53 PM EDT

SNIPPET 1:

After making landfall in southeast Puerto Rico near 6:15 am Wednesday as a top-end Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds, Hurricane Maria finished a devastating pummeling of the island near 1:30 pm, when its eye emerged over the ocean off the northwest coast. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft found that Maria’s 70-mile traverse of Puerto Rico had knocked the top winds of the storm down to 110 mph by 5 pm Wednesday, making it a high-end Category 2 hurricane. Satellite images show the hurricane is still well-organized, though, and the Hurricane Hunters found that Maria’s pressure was falling again late Wednesday afternoon: 957 mb at 5 pm, compared to a 961 mb reading at 2 pm. Maria will continue to bring dangerous torrential rains and powerful winds to Puerto Rico and the eastern Dominican Republic into Thursday.

Rescue Workers in Puerto Rico during Hurricane Maria - Credit: NBC News

Maria brought extreme rainfall amounts to large portions of Puerto Rico that caused record or near-record flash flooding. Numerous stations in Puerto Rico recorded rainfall amounts in excess of ten inches. Rainfall amounts in excess of 47 inches in 24 hours were recorded at three stations on the southwest side of El Yunque, the high mountainous area in the northeast corner of Puerto Rico; these are so extreme as to be unbelievable, and the gauges may have been impacted by flash flooding, or by a callibration problem at extreme precipitaion rates:

96.65” at Quebrada Arenas, including 67.75” in one hour ending at 6 am.  :o
72.07” at Barrio Montones, including 34.04” in one hour ending at 8:45 am.  :o
47.25” at Rio Valenciano, including 19.66” in one hour ending at 7:11 am.
 

These rainfall amounts would break virtually every world record for precipitation, and are highly likely to be in error. Water levels at the Rio Gurabo at Gurabo, where the nearby Gurabo Abajo rain gauge recorded 23.64” of rain in less than 24 hours, jumped by 27 feet in less than 12 hours (see Figure 2), so that rainfall amount is believable.

Figure 2. Water levels at Rio Gurabo at Gurabo, on the southwest side of El Yunque, shot up 27 feet in less than 12 hours. The river crested just 0.76’ below the record set during Hurricane Donna of 1960. Image credit: NOAA.




An island-wide power outage in Puerto Rico

Not since the great Category 5 1928 San Felipe Segundo hurricane has Puerto Rico experienced a hurricane catastrophe as extreme as that wrought by Hurricane Maria. The storm’s powerful winds caused catastrophic damage to the island’s power grid, knocking out power to 100% of Puerto Rico’s 3.4 million residents. In the Virgin Islands, there was also heavy damage on St. Croix, and serious flooding has been reported on St. Thomas. Maria is almost assured to be the most expensive hurricane in Puerto Rico history, and may challenge Hurricane Hugo (1989) and Irma (2 weeks ago) as the most expensive hurricane on record for the U.S. Virgin Islands.

SNIPPET 2:


Figure 5. The four rapid-intensifier hurricanes of 2017, compared with Hurricane Wilma of 2015. Shown are the last periods in which the hurricanes were at various levels (tropical depression, tropical storm, or Category 1 hurricane) along with the intervals from that point to the first point at which they achieved their top rating (either Cat 4 or 5).

This year is chock-full of rapidly intensifying hurricanes

If it seems like this year’s Category 4 and 5 storms made it to that level in a big hurry, you’re not imagining things. In the Washington Post, Chris Mooney spotlights a few of the leaps in strength that this year’s four major Atlantic hurricanes have taken, including:

Harvey:  Cat 1 to Cat 4 in 24 hours
Irma:  Cat 3 to Cat 5 in 24 hours
Jose:  Cat 1 to Cat 4 in 24 hours

Maria:  Cat 1 to Cat 4 in 12 hours, and Cat 1 to Cat 5 in 15 hours

Most of the rapid intensification records for major Atlantic hurricanes were set by 2005’s phenomenal Hurricane Wilma. However, Maria has tied Wilma for the fastest vault from tropical depression to Cat 5 hurricane (54 hours), as shown in Figure 5 above.

Bob Henson co-wrote this post.

Full article:

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/maria-back-over-water-after-devastating-hit-puerto-rico

Agelbert NOTE: The radome that protects the radar I used many years as an air traffic controller, which is supposed to be able to withstand 200 mph plus winds, was heavily damaged, putting the radar out of service just as Hurricane Maria was making landfall.

File Photo of Pico del Este Radar Station in Puerto Rico


The radome is located on a 4,300 ft. mountaiin peak about 18 miles north of the eye of Hurricane Maria in the graphic below:

Last Radar Image Before Radar Dome was Severely Damaged and Radar Failed
That has NEVER happened since that radar dome was built several decades ago. This hurricane's winds near the peak where the radome is must have been OFF THE CHARTS! Welcome to Catastrophic Climate Change.

Hurricane Maria Windfield at 11:00 AM September 20, 2017

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Re: Global Warming is WITH US
« Reply #1061 on: September 21, 2017, 02:23:47 pm »


Maria’s Parting Shot: Flash Floods Hammer Puerto Rico

Dr. Jeff Masters  ·  September 21, 2017, 12:46 PM EDT


Above: Rain and wind hit a parking lot at Roberto Clemente Coliseum in San Juan, Puerto Rico, on September 20, 2017, during the passage of Hurricane Maria. More than 500 people evacuated to the coliseum, where pieces of the roof began to give way and leak at the height of the storm early Wednesday. Lydia Gonzalez told the Los Angeles Times that she watched in horror as the roof stretched and strained "like bubble gum,” but the roof held. Image credit: Hector Retamal/AFP/Getty Images.


A flash flood emergency was in effect for the entire main island of Puerto Rico at midday Thursday, as rainbands feeding into Hurricane Maria continued to stream north across the U.S. territory. Cat 3 Maria was centered more than 150 miles northwest of Puerto Rico at 11 am EDT. Intense rainbands extending well south of Maria’s center were lashing most of the Dominican Republic and parts of Puerto Rico. Power remains out across Puerto Rico on Thursday, and it may be weeks or months before widespread restoration of the island’s power grid, which was already reeling from Hurricane Irma even before Maria struck.

Widespread damage and flooding was also reported in the U.S. Virgin Islands, where a 24-hour curfew is in effect. At least 7 deaths have been confirmed in hard-hit Dominica, a toll expected to rise as rescuers work their way into remote parts of the island. Some 90% of the structures in Dominica are reported to be damaged or destroyed, and there has been massive loss of trees across the once-lush landscape. Two deaths in Guadelope and one death in Puerto Rico are also being attributed to Maria.



Figure 1. Flooded streets are seen in San Juan, Puerto Rico, on September 21, 2017 after the passage of Hurricane Maria. Image credit: Hector Retamal/AFP/Getty Images.

Maria still drenching Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands
Satellite imagery on Thursday morning showed that Maria was well-organized, with a large area of very intense thunderstorms surrounding a huge 45-mile-diameter eye. The Hurricane Hunters have not detected much change in Maria’s intensity since 2 am, with the pressure holding nearly steady at 959 – 960 mb, and the surface winds maintaining a low-end Category 3 velocity, 115 mph, as of 11 am EDT. Maria’s spiral bands were still pounding Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands with heavy rains, and extreme flash flooding will continue to occur on those islands for the much of the day. The same is true of northern and eastern parts of the Dominican Republic, where 8 – 16” of total rainfall is predicted. Maria’s spiral bands were also beginning to affect the southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands, where NHC is predicting rainfall amounts of 8 – 16” from Maria. These islands can expect heavy rains to increase through the day and peak on Friday, when Maria makes its closest approach. These islands will be on the weaker (left front) side of Maria, but the islands closest to Maria are likely to see sustained winds near hurricane force and a dangerous storm surge of up to 9 – 12’.


Figure 2. Hurricane Maria as seen by the GOES-16 satellite at 10:45 am EDT September 21, 2017. Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB. GOES-16 data is considered preliminary and non-operational.

Full article with detailed Maria Forecast and video of Hurricane Eye:



https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/marias-parting-shot-flash-floods-hammer-puerto-rico
« Last Edit: September 21, 2017, 06:31:19 pm by AGelbert »
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Re: Global Warming is WITH US
« Reply #1062 on: September 21, 2017, 06:21:19 pm »



Hurricane Maria “destroys Puerto Rico” — 100% of the state left without power

LAST UPDATED ON SEPTEMBER 21ST, 2017 AT 11:02 AM BY MIHAI ANDREI

Quote
This is an abnormally strong hurricane season.


SNIPPET:

Maria, a Category 4 hurricane, left little in its wake as it charged through Puerto Rico head on, with sustained winds of 140 mph (220 km/h) and high-end winds of 155 mph (250 km/h). Abner Gomez Cortes, executive director of Puerto Rico’s office of emergency management and disaster administration agency said telecommunications throughout the island have “collapsed,” and even electricity has gone down.

People are now struggling with backup generators — at least those fortunate enough to have one. At least 12,000 people have been forced to retreat to shelters. It’s unclear how much material damage has been done, as the danger still hasn’t fully passed.

Maria is the strongest hurricane to hit the territory since the 1928 San Felipe hurricane, as well as the most intense hurricane to hit the territory in recorded history. The fact that it comes after Harvey, Irma, and Jose, makes it even harder to overcome.  :(

Full article with graphics:

http://www.zmescience.com/ecology/climate/hurricane-maria-puerto-rico-21092017/





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Re: Global Warming is WITH US
« Reply #1063 on: September 21, 2017, 06:49:57 pm »
Agelbert NOTE: Excellent article with a powerful video connecting the Climate Change dots with this Horrible Hurricane Season:

EcoWatch

Thursday, September 21, 2017

Hurricane Maria Devastates Puerto Rico

https://www.ecowatch.com/hurricane-maria-puerto-rico-2487925359.html


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Re: Global Warming is WITH US
« Reply #1064 on: September 22, 2017, 02:51:06 pm »

Above: Electricity poles and lines lay toppled in Humacao, in northeastern Puerto Rico, in the wake of Hurricane Maria on September 20, 2017. AP Photo/Carlos Giusti.

More Havoc as Category 3 Maria Plows Northward

Bob Henson  ·  September 22, 2017, 12:19 PM EDT



https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/more-havoc-category-3-maria-plows-northward






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