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Author Topic: 🚩 Global Climate Chaos ☠️  (Read 33637 times)

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AGelbert

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Re: 🚩 Global Climate Chaos ☠️
« Reply #165 on: January 15, 2015, 06:58:50 pm »
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lz_XfjvMpmA&feature=player_embedded
UNNATURAL SELECTION by TPTB (DEMOCRACY, MY ASS!) WILL subtract human DNA from the biosphere gene pool (along with thousands of other species  ). Just like natural selection, the process WILL NOT produce MORE complex life forms; it will SUBTRACT from biosphere diversity and complexity. Only the extremely hardy, and simple, extremophiles will survive.

Have a nice day.  8)





Hope deferred maketh the heart sick: but when the desire cometh, it is a tree of life. Pr. 13:12

AGelbert

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Hope deferred maketh the heart sick: but when the desire cometh, it is a tree of life. Pr. 13:12

AGelbert

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Re: 🚩 Global Climate Chaos ☠️
« Reply #167 on: January 23, 2015, 12:08:48 am »


Thoughts on 2014 and ongoing temperature trends  

Filed under: Climate Science El Nino Instrumental Record Reporting on climate — gavin @ 22 January 2015

Full peer reviewed article with eye opening graphics:

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2015/01/thoughts-on-2014-and-ongoing-temperature-trends/#sthash.SsfON4ei.dpuf
Hope deferred maketh the heart sick: but when the desire cometh, it is a tree of life. Pr. 13:12

AGelbert

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Re: 🚩 Global Climate Chaos ☠️
« Reply #168 on: January 30, 2015, 02:28:59 pm »
Fossil Fuelers Cashing in on   INSTEAD OF PAYING FOR (AGAIN  :P) Global Warming! Happy days are here again for MKing's pals!

Brazil’s Drought Brings Water Supply to Near Zero Capacity at Hydroelectric Facilities

 Gregory B. Poindexter 
 January 29, 2015

BRASILIA, Brazil Brazil is experiencing a debilitating drought as the nation endures the driest period since South America’s most populous country began keeping records in the 1930s. As a result of the arid conditions, reservoir levels and lake water flow to hydroelectric facilities that supply power to Brazil’s most densely populated city of Sao Paulo are nearing zero capacity.

According to the federal government, hydroelectric power facilities in the country’s southeastern region that supply power to close to 20 million people in the metropolitan region of Sao Paulo (MRSP) are being deactivated. A list of the deactivated facilities is not immediately available, but Brazil normally receives about 70% of its electricity from hydroelectric plants, according to energy officials.

The Billings Reservoir, in MRSP, supplies the 889-MW Henry Borden hydroelectric facility as part of the Cantareira water system. Local media outlets report Billings Reservoir is nearly dry.

Greater Sao Paulo, according to the World Bank, is the most important industrial producer of the country. Sao Paulo City, the world's ninth-largest city according to available 2012 census data, is located on the southeastern end of the Alto-Tiete River Basin. The city relies heavily on the Cantareia water system for hydroelectric energy to power industry, sanitation and drinking water.



Cantareia water system is formed by six reservoirs in five basins located in the Serra da Cantareira to the north of Greater Sao Pauloin the states of Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais. The system covers twelve municipalities, as well as the Guaru water treatment plant.

According to information from the state owned water utility, Companhia de Agua e Esgoto do estado de Sao Paulo (SABESP), the four-lake Cantareira water system is the largest of six reservoir systems that provide water to some 10 million of the 20 million people living in MRSP.

The six-reservoir system is linked by 48 km of tunnels and canals that provide flow for hydroelectric power and drinking water to MRSP and combined, the system is at or below 3% of its of its 264 billion gallon capacity.

SABESP is the largest water and sanitation company in South America. In the Alto-Tiete basin, the company provides urban water supply and sanitation services to São Paulo City and most municipalities of the basin, operating 195 water treatment plants and 350 wastewater treatment plants.

Because of the extreme water shortage brought on by the drought, SABESP has been forced to pump dead water -- water from reserves below the intake pipes of several reservoirs -- to use as drinking water.  :P

For the Alto-Tiete system, water level stands at 10.5% against the 46.9% observed a year ago. Water reserves have plunged dramatically in the past 12 months, causing capacity in several reservoirs to reach all-time lows: Guarapiranga, from 77.3% to 46.9%; Alto Cotia saw the greatest decline, going from 86.3% to 32.8%; Rio Grande went from 93.7% to 74.3%; and Rio Claro diminished from 90.8% to 54.3%, according to the latest SABESP estimates.

On Jan. 19, Brazil’s national grid operator, Operador Nacional do Sistema Eletrico (ONS), cut power to several major Brazilian cities, including Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro.

The drought is also having an impact on energy supplies. Officials said with reduced generation from hydroelectric dams, demand for electricity generated from fossil fuel-fired plants will continue to peak  as people turn up the air conditioning through the hot summer.

Original article posted at http://www.hydroworld.com/articles/2015/01/brazil-s-drought-brings-water-supply-to-near-zero-capacity-at-hydroelectric-facilities.html.
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2015/01/brazils-drought-brings-water-supply-to-near-zero-capacity-at-hydroelectric-facilities#comment-139565
 
Comments:

 A. G. Gelbert   
 January 30, 2015 

Brazil needs mega amounts of PV. They have super quality sun in that latitude. they can get about 10 to 20% more efficiency from PV down there than we can up here. The hydroelectric problem s a wakeup call. I hope they do the right thing.

http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2015/01/brazils-drought-brings-water-supply-to-near-zero-capacity-at-hydroelectric-facilities

Agelbert NOTE: Expect the fine fossil fuel profit over planet folks who CONNED Brazilians into believing energy was "Cheap" and having gobs of air conditioners running was a great idea to claim, "No one is putting a gun to the head of Brazilians to turn on their air conditioners... ".   

Ah yes, those Fossil fuelers are just our loyal servants doing what we have "forced" them to do. 
 
Hope deferred maketh the heart sick: but when the desire cometh, it is a tree of life. Pr. 13:12

AGelbert

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Re: 🚩 Global Climate Chaos ☠️
« Reply #169 on: February 04, 2015, 10:02:24 pm »
Now for the news from Bangladesh: "Anybody that can't swim, HANG ON TO THE CHANDELERS!" 


2/04/2015 04:49 PM     
Threatened By Rising Water, Bangladesh Turns to Floating Schools & Farms

SustainableBusiness.com News

When we wrote about the surge of small solar in Bangladesh last May, we were astounded that 2667 solar systems were being added every day.

 Since then, the numbers have grown to 50,000-60,000 a day, bringing the government's goal into reach - a solar nation by 2021, where every household has solar.

 Solar has now reached 3.5 million homes - 10% of the population - up from 1 million in 2012, according to government's Infrastructure Development Company, which runs the program with funding from the World Bank and other development partners.

 In addition to low cost financing for small, home solar systems, the government has plans for 50 mini-solar grids across the country by 2017, part of its plan to replace all diesel-powered irrigation pumps with solar in five years. Five large solar farms are also in the works, adding 143 megawatts of capacity.

And that's not the only way Bangladesh is stepping up to meet its challenges. 

Floating Schools & Farms

Bangladesh - a country of waterways - is one of the most threatened by rising sea levels. About a third of the country is covered by water during monsoon time, but with climate change, water can soak two-thirds of the country.

 An amazing nonprofit, Shidhulai Swanirvar Sangstha, has developed solutions that can be used in many parts of the world.

 When there's too much rain, students take classes aboard solar-powered boats, often for four months a year. There are now 22 floating schools, five floating health clinics and 10 libraries. A new two-tiered school has classrooms on the lower level and a playground on top.


Bangladesh floating school

And in the watery world that's taking over, they are even helping people create floating farms. The nonprofit provides training, seeds, feed and the entire structure for farms that include ducks, fish and even a vegetable garden.

 The structure, will is moored to shore, is large enough for 5-10 people who can earn about $1700 a year selling eggs, fish and vegetables. So far, there are 40 floating farms, with plans for 400 in the next few years.

Made from a simple bamboo platform, floating farms are 56 feet long and 16 feet wide, and float on empty oil drums or plastic containers, moored to the shore.

These adaptations are crucial, because the only alternative to flooded farms is for people to move into overcrowded cities. Bangladesh is one of the most densely populated countries with 156 million people living in an area the size of Iowa.

 Learn more about Shidhulai Swanirvar Sangstha:

 
Website: www.shidhulai.org/

http://www.sustainablebusiness.com/index.cfm/go/news.display/id/26137
Hope deferred maketh the heart sick: but when the desire cometh, it is a tree of life. Pr. 13:12

AGelbert

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Re: 🚩 Global Climate Chaos ☠️
« Reply #170 on: February 05, 2015, 07:49:58 pm »
Landslides 101 

They can happen suddenly, ripping homes from their foundations, turning roads into rubble, and killing almost everything in its path. The powerful force of a landslide leaves only destruction in its wake.

Landslide cuts off No.3 freeway in Taiwan

Landslide is term used to describe the movement of rock, debris and soil down a slope. Gravity is the primary cause of landslides. But other factors contribute to landslide danger by weakening slopes to the point of failure:

Erosion of rock and soil by rivers, glaciers, or ocean waves

Saturation of rock and soil slopes by snowmelt or heavy rains

Movement caused by earthquakes, especially those with magnitude 4.0 and greater

Volcanic eruptions producing loose ash deposits, heavy rain, and debris flows

Deforestation and construction in fragile areas.

Excess weight from accumulated rain or snow, or from man-made structures


Coastal Landslides

According to the U.S. Geological Survey, landslides are a serious geologic hazard common in almost every U.S. state. It is estimated that in the U.S., landslides cause in excess of $1 billion in damages and about 25 to 50 deaths each year.

Globally, landslides destroy far more, causing hundreds of billions in damages and hundreds of thousands of deaths and injuries each year.


Washington State Dept of Transportation
SR 410 Nile Valley Landslide (west of Naches)
Aerial view of west end of the landslide burying the highway and damming the Naches River.


Know These Landslide Warning Signs

Springs, seeps, or saturated ground in areas that have not typically been wet before.

New cracks or unusual bulges
in the ground, street pavements or sidewalks.

Soil moving away from foundations.

Ancillary structures such as decks and patios tilting and/or moving relative to the main house or tilting or cracking of concrete floors and foundations.

Broken water lines and other underground utilities.

Leaning telephone poles, trees, retaining walls or fences.

Sunken or down-dropped road beds.

Rapid increase in creek water levels, possibly accompanied by increased turbidity (soil content). Or a sudden decrease in creek water levels though rain is still falling or just recently stopped.

A faint rumbling sound that increases in volume  :o is noticeable as the landslide nears.

Unusual sounds, such as trees cracking or boulders knocking together, might indicate land movement.


Washington State Dept of Transportation
SR 410 Nile Valley Landslide - Oct. 2009
Aerial view of the Nile Valley slide


What To Do During a Landslide



Stay alert and awake. Many debris-flow fatalities occur when people are sleeping! Stay tuned to weather news and heed alerts.

If you are in areas susceptible to landslides and debris flows, consider leaving if it is safe to do so. Remember that driving during an intense storm can be hazardous. If you remain at home, move to a second story if possible.

Staying out of the path of a landslide or debris flow saves lives.  ::)

Listen for any unusual sounds that might indicate moving debris, such as trees cracking or boulders knocking together. A trickle of flowing or falling mud or debris may precede larger landslides.

If you are near a stream or channel, be alert for any sudden increase or decrease in water flow and for a change from clear to muddy water. Such changes may indicate landslide activity upstream, so be prepared to move quickly. Don’t delay!  Save yourself, not your belongings.

Be especially alert when driving
. Bridges may be washed out, and culverts overtopped. Do not cross flooding streams! Turn Around, Don’t Drown!

Embankments along roadsides are particularly susceptible to landslides. Watch the road for collapsed pavement, mud, fallen rocks, and other indications of possible debris flows.


2104 Washington Landslide
A photo from an aerial survey showing the upper parts of the landslide that occurred in northwest Washington state, near Oso, on March 22, 2014. USGS landslide specialists, in collaboration with seismologists and state agencies, are still working to interpret the complex sequence of events that led to the landslide.
To get a perspective on the size of the landslide, look toward the bottom-left of this photo and you'll see, what appears to be, a tiny house just inside the tree line.
You can read the latest updates on the science and how the USGS is contributing to the understanding of this event at on.doi.gov/OsoLandslide.
Credit: Jonathan Godt, USGS.


What To Do After a Landslide   ;D 


Stay away from the slide area. There may be danger of additional slides.

Listen to local radio or television stations for the latest emergency information.

Watch for flooding, which may occur after a landslide or debris flow. Floods sometimes follow landslides and debris flows because they may both be started by the same event.

Check for injured and trapped persons near the slide, without entering the direct slide area . Direct rescuers to their locations.

Help a neighbor who may require special assistance – infants, elderly people, and people with disabilities. Elderly people and people with disabilities may require additional assistance. People who care for them or who have large families may need additional assistance in emergency situations.

Look for and report broken utility lines and damaged roadways and railways to appropriate authorities. Reporting potential hazards will get the utilities turned off as quickly as possible, preventing further hazard and injury. Agelbert NOTE: Remember that ruptured gas pipelines have a strong tendency to do this: 

Check the building foundation
, chimney, and surrounding land for damage. Damage to foundations, chimneys, or surrounding land may help you assess the safety of the area.

Replant damaged ground as soon as possible since erosion caused by loss of ground cover can lead to flash flooding and additional landslides in the near future.

Seek advice from a geotechnical expert for evaluating landslide hazards or designing corrective techniques to reduce landslide risk. A professional will be able to advise you of the best ways to prevent or reduce landslide risk, without creating further hazard.

Be Prepared! Know Before™.
The WeatherBug – Earth Networks Team

http://knowbefore.weatherbug.com/2014/12/09/landslides-101/
Hope deferred maketh the heart sick: but when the desire cometh, it is a tree of life. Pr. 13:12

AGelbert

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Re: 🚩 Global Climate Chaos ☠️
« Reply #171 on: February 17, 2015, 01:38:52 pm »
A new sea level curve

Filed under: Climate Science
 Instrumental Record
 Oceans
 — stefan @ 14 January 2015


The “zoo” of global sea level curves calculated from tide gauge data has grown – tomorrow a new reconstruction of our US colleagues around Carling Hay from Harvard University will appear in Nature (Hay et al. 2015). That is a good opportunity for an overview over the available data curves. The differences are really in the details, the “big picture” of sea-level rise does not change. In all curves, the current rates of rise are the highest since records began.

The following graph shows the new sea level curve as compared to six known ones.



Fig 1 Sea level curves calculated by different research groups with various methods. The curves show the sea level relative to the satellite era (since 1992). Graph: Klaus Bittermann.


All curves show the well-known modern sea level rise, but the exact extent and time evolution of the rise differ somewhat. Up to about 1970, the new reconstruction of Hay et al. runs at the top of the existing uncertainty range. For the period from 1880 AD, however, it shows the same total increase as the current favorites by Church & White. Starting from 1900 AD it is about 25 mm less. This difference is at the margins of significance: the uncertainty ranges overlap.

It is also interesting to compare the rates of sea-level rise.




Fig 2 Rates of sea-level rise calculated from the curves in Fig. 1. To calculate the rate of increase, sea level curves were first smoothed with a filter of half-width 15 years and then differentiated. Graph: Klaus Bittermann.


The graph shows that the rates vary over time and also differ between the curves. All reconstructions agree on one point: the rate of rise in the last two decades (about 3 cm per decade) is the highest on record. Hay et al. find that the acceleration of sea-level rise since 1900 AD is larger than in previous reconstructions, but it has been generally questioned whether the quadratic acceleration (derived from a parabolic fit) is a useful number in cases where a parabola doesn’t fit the data well (Rahmstorf and Vermeer 2011, Foster and Brown 2014). Taking a step back, in my view the “big picture” on acceleration is that we have moved from a stable preindustrial sea level to one now rising at 3 mm/year (see Fig. 1 here). The differences between the quadratic acceleration numbers come from differences in the decadal to multidecadal variability in the curves which I don’t consider very robust (we have shown in Rahmstorf et al. 2012 how strongly these can be affected by a small amount of “noise” in the sea-level data).

Why are there at all different reconstructions of the global sea level history? The reason lies in the challenge to calculate global sea level as accurately as possible from a suboptimal data base. Different research groups have developed different approaches for this.

The data problem looks like this:
•Tide gauge measurements are not available in sufficient number (especially in earlier times) and not distributed evenly over the oceans: the Northern Hemisphere, for example, is strongly over-represented and tide gauge stations are located along the coasts.
•Many of the time series have data gaps.
•Tide gauges (unlike satellites) measure sea level relative to the land, so these data are ‘contaminated’ by land uplift or subsidence.

A particular challenge is posed by the positioning of the gauges along the coasts, because coastal sea level can be affected by local effects such as the wind piling up water against the shore. Variability in the prevailing winds (which can extend over decades, England et al. 2014) will therefore lead to variability in the water level along the coasts – but of course we know that the wind cannot change global sea level at all as it merely redistributes the water. Nevertheless such variability induced by winds or currents may give a false impression of global sea level fluctuations in analyses of tide gauge data.

The new reconstruction of Hay et al. is an important addition to the body of sea-level work, coming from top experts. But is it better than previous ones? Which of the curves shown is “the best” is not easy to assess. No one knows the exact true sea-level evolution – so we have to consider what methodology is likely to be the most appropriate to cope with the challenges mentioned. I hope that the authors and other experts might stop by here at Realclimate for a discussion of the advantages and drawbacks of the different methods.

The until now widely favored method of reconstruction is that of Church & White (2006 and updated 2011). It uses the satellite data of sea level to determine the typical variability patterns of the sea surface and thus to establish the link between the locally measured tide gauge values and the global sea level. The big advantage is that one does not need questionable assumptions to extrapolate from the measurements on the coasts into the open ocean, but that empirical data on the actual relationship are used. The disadvantage is that unfortunately the satellite data exist only for about twenty years. This method thus relies on the relationship between sea level on the coast and in the rest of the ocean having remained essentially unchanged.

The new reconstruction of Hay et al. uses statistical methods for dealing with incomplete data which have already proven their worth in other applications. In addition, it also uses knowledge about the physics of sea level rise: it determines the components of the global sea-level rise (e.g. the contribution from ice melt in Greenland and Antarctica) taking into account the knowledge about the spatial pattern, the so-called ‘fingerprint’ associated with each of these components. On the other hand, it does not explicitly take into account the specific patterns of natural variability caused by winds or currents that can masquerade as a false global signal (as described above).

Hay et al perform a test in which they take their reconstruction as “truth” and see how well the method of Church & White performs in reproducing it. They find it to be biased high, although the obtained sea level trend in this case is lower than in the real Church & White reconstruction and fully encompasses the hypothetical “true” range. Although this is an important test, it is thus not entirely conclusive, also considering that it was performed just on one particular sea level pattern (that reconstructed by Hay et al.) so it would be premature to conclude that the method is biased high in general.

To sum up, in my view the strength of the method of Hay et al. is that it uses the expected “fingerprints” of the global warming signal, while the strength of Church & White is to take into account the empirical patterns of natural variability. Ideal would of course be a combination of both, and this could be the next step for further research. Ultimately, it is not clear down to what level of accuracy we will ever know the sea level evolution over the past hundred years or so. But for practical purposes, I don’t think it matters whether the rise from 1900 AD has been 3 centimetres more or less. I do not think this changes our outlook for future sea-level rise in any significant way.

 http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2015/01/a-new-sea-level-curve/#sthash.9rWYeLNv.dpuf

Agelbert NOTE:
But you can count on the fossil fuelers concluding with much fanfare, puffery and whining   , as usual, that any and all methods "bias high".    

Hope deferred maketh the heart sick: but when the desire cometh, it is a tree of life. Pr. 13:12

AGelbert

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Re: 🚩 Global Climate Chaos ☠️
« Reply #172 on: February 18, 2015, 12:15:35 am »
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CTsjOH_HJYc&feature=player_embedded
Must see NASA image studio video! Absolutely mesmerizing!
Hope deferred maketh the heart sick: but when the desire cometh, it is a tree of life. Pr. 13:12

AGelbert

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Re: 🚩 Global Climate Chaos ☠️
« Reply #173 on: February 23, 2015, 08:36:27 pm »
Thu Feb 19, 2015 at 07:34 PM EST.

Mother Earth weeps as Arctic Circle ice cap slides into the sea.

by Pakalolo.


 
Image credit:Jason Roberts, BBC-**** surface: The largest ice cap in the Eurasian Arctic - Austfonna in Svalbard -

The Austfonna ice cap is located in northeastern Svalbard within the arctic circle north of Scandinavia. "Roughly  28% of the ice cap bed lies below sea level and over 200 km of its southern and eastern margin terminates in the ocean [Dowdeswell, 1986; Dowdeswell et al., 2008], with parts resting on a retrograde slope."

Like most glaciers that terminate at the sea, warm water from the Atlantic is making its way north to the Arctic ocean (including Berants sea) where the warmth helps to melt the underside of the glacier which in turn causes thinning resulting in rapid retreat. This process is also exacerbated by melt water and bedrock warming.  This is changing the flow dynamics of the glacier.

The Earth Story describes the dynamic change as follows:

This glacier appears to have come ungrounded,
flowing out to sea at a rapid pace and draining ice from the ice cap in the process. The ice cap is now thinning by an average of 25 meters per year.

The waters of the Arctic Ocean have warmed at a rapid pace relative to the rest of the world over recent years, and 2012 in particular was a year of exceptional melting and warmth in the arctic due to some extreme storms. The sudden movement in this glacier suggests that this pulse of heat has helped destabilize glaciers in the surrounding territory and it is happening at an exceptionally rapid pace.
The technical study concludes:

To date, the observed dynamical imbalance has propagated 50 km inland to within 8 km of the ice cap summit, producing widespread ice loss to the ocean. Currently, the glacier terminus rests on a broadly undulating bed; however, farther inland the bed deepens, providing the potential for future instability if further ungrounding occurs [Schoof, 2007]. The imbalance could have been triggered by a number of processes, including an internally generated surge, increased meltwater availability at the bed [Dunse et al., 2014], or enhanced ocean- or atmosphere-driven melting at the terminus; indeed, a combination of factors may have contributed [Nick et al., 2009; Jenkins, 2011].

Across Austfonna, however, there is a coherent pattern of ice margin thinning at all marine-based sectors, which is not apparent at land-terminating basins (Figure 1). This may suggest either a common ocean forcing or the influence of bed conditions specific to marine settings. Additional evidence of anomalously warm waters offshore [Polyakov et al., 2005, 2013] and insignificantly increased atmospheric melting in recent years leads us to favor the former mechanism, rather than one linked to increased melt water delivery to the bed, although a definitive link would require dynamical modeling and measurements at the calving front.

Until then, it is unclear whether the moderate rates of thinning of other marine ice sectors are a prelude to similar widespread mass loss in these areas, or whether the large dynamical imbalance at basin 3 will be sustained over time. Nonetheless, the behavior recorded here demonstrates that slow-flowing ice caps can enter states of significant imbalance over very short timescales and highlights their capacity for increased ice loss in the future.

This video is from Chasing Ice where Adam LeWinter and Director Jeff Orlowski filmed a historic breakup at the Ilulissat Glacier in Western Greenland. Though not Austfonna, we get the idea of what is happening to our glaciers worldwide. 
               


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hC3VTgIPoGU&feature=player_embedded

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/02/19/1365572/-Mother-Earth-weeps-as-Arctic-Circle-Ice-Cap-slides-into-the-Sea   
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AGelbert

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Re: 🚩 Global Climate Chaos ☠️
« Reply #174 on: February 23, 2015, 08:56:02 pm »
Hope deferred maketh the heart sick: but when the desire cometh, it is a tree of life. Pr. 13:12

AGelbert

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Re: 🚩 Global Climate Chaos ☠️
« Reply #175 on: February 24, 2015, 02:56:20 pm »

  teph·ra Geology noun: tephra; plural noun: tephras rock fragments and particles ejected by a volcanic eruption.   

The mystery of the offset chronologies: Tree rings and the volcanic record of the 1st millennium
Filed under: Aerosols,  Climate Science,  Paleoclimate
Guest commentary by Jonny McAneney
Volcanism can have an important impact on climate. When a large volcano erupts it can inject vast amounts of dust and sulphur compounds into the stratosphere, where they alter the radiation balance. While the suspended dust can temporarily block sunlight, the dominant effect in volcanic forcing is the sulphur, which combines with water to form sulphuric acid droplets. These stratospheric aerosols dramatically change the reflectivity, and absorption profile of the upper atmosphere, causing the stratosphere to heat, and the surface to cool; resulting in climatic changes on hemispheric and global scales.
Interrogating tree rings and ice cores
Annually-resolved ice core and tree-ring chronologies provide opportunities for understanding past volcanic forcing and the consequent climatic effects and impacts on human populations. It is common knowledge that you can tell the age of a tree by counting its rings, but it is also interesting to note that the size and physiology of each ring provides information on growing conditions when the ring formed. By constructing long tree ring chronologies, using suitable species of trees, it is possible to reconstruct a precisely-dated annual record of climatic conditions.
Ice cores can provide a similar annual record of the chemical and isotopic composition of the atmosphere, in particular volcanic markers such as layers of volcanic acid and tephra. However, ice cores can suffer from ambiguous layers that introduce errors into the dating of these layers of volcanic acid. To short-circuit this, attempts have been made to identify know historical eruptions within the ice records, such as Öraefajökull (1362) and Vesuvius (AD 79). This can become difficult since the ice chronologies can only be checked by finding and definitively identifying tephra (volcanic glass shards) that can be attributed to these key eruptions; sulphate peaks in the ice are not volcano specific.
Thus, it is fundamentally important to have chronological agreement between historical, tree-ring and ice core chronologies: The ice cores record the magnitude and frequency of volcanic eruptions, with the trees recording the climatic response, and historical records evidencing human responses to these events.
But they don’t quite line up…

The importance of frost rings
An additional piece of evidence is the existence and dating of “frost ring” phenomena observed in bristlecone pines growing at high altitude in Western North America. These rings form when temperatures drop well below freezing for extended periods during the tree’s growing season, and are evidenced by physical scarring of that year’s growth ring that can be caused by volcanically induced climate dislocation – an idea first suggested by LaMarche and Hirschboeck in 1984.
 
figure 1: Dates of large historical eruptions (Siebert et al., 2011) within the last 600 years that likely caused significant Northern Hemisphere negative temperature anomalies as noted and ranked by Briffa et al. (1998). Bristlecone pine frost rings as recorded by LaMarche and Hirschboeck (1984)(†) and Salzer and Hughes (2007)(‡), are also listed, as are the start years of large ice acid signals (deposition SO42- in units of Kg/km2 are given in parentheses) observed in the NEEM S1 and WDC06A ice cores Sigl et al. (2013). Space analysis between successive phenomena (highlighted in bold) shows high consistency, and that large volcanoes can induce frost damage in bristlecone pines.
If we take some notable volcanoes in the past 600 years (Figure 1), we can confirm that frost rings in bristlecone pines are good indicators of large explosive volcanic eruptions, similar to the known coincidence of hemispheric cooling evidenced in growth rings of European trees in the years around historically dated eruptions. For this period, dates for large volcanic acid signals in ice cores are consistent with both historical and tree ring observations. However, this consistent linkage breaks down in the 1st millennium when frost ring dates and ice core acidity dates are compared. So if frost rings are indicative of large explosive volcanism in recent centuries, is it that the ice cores may be misdated in the 1st millennium? This is the question we explore in a recent paper (Baillie and McAneney, 2015).
Re-dating the ice cores?
 
figure 2: Temperature sensitive Swedish pine chronology showing synchronisms with bristlecone pine frost rings (Baillie, 2010). Ice acid dates (o) original (Clausen et al. 1997); (m) moved 2.5 years (Larsen et al. 2008); (B) moved 7 years (Baillie 2008).

In 2008 and 2010, Baillie used bristlecone pine frost rings as well as temperature sensitive Swedish pine tree ring chronologies to propose that the dating of the Greenland ice cores was too old by approximately 7 years in the period before the 7th century AD, see Figure (2). In our current paper, we reinforce this proposed re-dating by looking at ice core data published since 2010, from both Greenland (NEEM S1 (Sigl et al., 2013)) and Antarctica (WDC06A (Sigl et al., 2013), Law Dome (Plummer et al., 2012)) as well as the Antarctic DML core (Traufetter et al., 2004). We consider the space intervals between frost rings, and compare them to space intervals between ice acid layers in each core during the 6th and 7th centuries, noting that there is a similarity in the event intervals. The similar space intervals in each data set would appear to suggest that trees and ice cores are recording the same volcanic events, but that the ice cores are offset from tree rings. (See tables 1-3 in our paper for more details). All cores except DML appear to be too old with respect to tree-ring dates, with the latter being slightly too young.
Why should we listen to the trees?
At this point one might quite rightly stop and ask whether it is realistic that a large set of independently replicated ice cores could be misdated? Might the problem instead lie with the dendrochronology? Fortunately, dendrochronological replication is often provided by comparing chronologies produced by independent workers in independent laboratories. In this respect, it is extremely unlikely that any of the tree ring data used in this exercise is incorrectly dated. Though see this post  (at article link) discussing this exact issue – Ed.

 
figure 3: Historical dust veil events as noted by Stothers and Rampino (1983) in the period from 100 BC to AD 700, compared with bristlecone pine frost rings as recorded by LaMarche and Hirschboeck (1984)(†) and Salzer and Hughes (2007)(‡) and observation of ice acid in the GICC05 (Vinther et al. 2006) and NEEM S1 timescales (Sigl et al., 2013). Space analysis demonstrates that while there is a high consistency between phenomena spacing (highlighted in bold), ice core dates are offset by approximately 7 years.

One could also re-examine the hypothesis that frost rings are useful volcanic markers. In fact, it is possible to have some frost rings without any evidence of explosive volcanism, presumably occurring due to extremes in local weather, but, as shown above, they do seem to record large volcanic eruptions in recent times very well indeed. Why would that change in the 1st millennium? Furthermore, when a space analysis is performed between historically-dated severe dust veils between the 1st century BC and the 7th century AD, these compare well with frost rings, but again volcanic horizons in Greenland ice appear to be too old by 7-years (see Figure 3). Accepting, of course, that historical documentation is correct, the dated bristlecone pine frost rings agree perfectly as a response to the volcanically induced climatic events. We conclude then that these early ice core chronologies are at odds with both history and dendrochronology.
Implications
The implications of an ice core misdating are important. Global tree rings show that there was a major climatic event beginning in AD 536 lasting to at least AD 545, which may have been a catalyst for the Justinian plague in the 540s [This was discussed in a previous post in 2008 – Ed.]. Tree-rings suggest that this was a two stage event, with an initial abrupt reduction of tree growth at AD 536, a recovery over the next couple of years, followed by another abrupt reduction in tree growth following AD 540. This agrees extremely well with the frost rings at AD 536 and AD 541, and with the widely documented prolonged dust veil in Europe of AD 536. Current ice core chronologies conversely suggest that there was only one massive volcano in AD 536 which was responsible for the decade long climatic event (Larsen et al. 2008). They showed large volcanic signals in the ice at AD 529 and AD 533.5 and proposed that the latter related to AD 536 (see Figure 4). With the proposed re-dating of the ice cores, it now appears that the two massive volcanoes occurred in AD 536 and 540.5, which fits better with a two-stage event.
 
figure 4: Greenland ice cores suggesting two large eruptions in AD 529 +/- 2 and AD 533.5 +/- 2. Moving these acid dates by approximately 7 years would explain the two stage environmental event recorded in trees in AD 536 and AD 540 (Larsen et al., 2008).

The suggested ice dating offset would have other implications. It would imply that the identification of Vesuvius tephra in Greenland ice dating to AD 79 (Barbante et al, 2013) is in error, and it would also bring to prominence a major eruption in 44 BC, the year of Caesar’s death; the acidity associated with this eruption currently having an ice-acid date around 50 BC.
 
figure 5: Swedish pine temperature reconstruction showing sudden cooling at AD 800, which may be volcanically induced. The nearest acid layer in NEEM is dated to AD 793 (Grudd, 2010).

With the proposed dating revision, it is possible to tease out other potential candidates for unrecognised historical eruptions. Writing around AD 810-15 the chronicler Theophanes the Confessor records that after the capture and blinding of Byzantine emperor Constantine VI in August AD 797:
“The sun was darkened for seventeen days and did not emit its rays so that ships
lost course and drifted about. Everyone acknowledged that the sun withheld its rays
because the emperor had been blinded”
(Mango and Scott, 1997).
Such an event is suggestive of a volcanic dust veil or ash cloud observed from Constantinople, possibly from a Mediterranean eruption. The nearest acid signal in the NEEM S1 ice core occurs at 793.0 (Sigl et al., 2013), and is the only acid within +/-14 years of AD 797. Note that we are told Constantine’s blinding occurred after August 797, but we cannot know how long after. It is conceivable that the obscuration event could have been as much as a few years after the Constantine’s capture and blinding, but that the two events were associated as direct cause and effect by the popular psyche at the time, and recorded as such. It is thus tempting to link this event with the sudden cooling observed in Swedish pine that occurred in AD 800 (see Figure 5).
Another consequence might be that the current ice dating of the Icelandic Eldgjá eruption may need to be moved from around AD 933 to around AD 939/940. Sun et al. (2014) have identified stratigraphical evidence of Changbaishan eruption tephra in NEEM S1 lying 7 annual layers above Eldgjá tephra. Changbaishan can be dated to AD 946 by historical documents of local ash fall and unseasonably cold weather. This implies any ice dating offset occurs above this horizon. How far above is uncertain, though it is likely below the mid 13th century.
Conclusion
Tree rings cannot prove that ice cores are misdated; but the offset identified here should prompt a re-examination of the ice core chronology. If the dating revision proposed here is correct, it would rewrite the volcanic history of the 1st millennium. In particular, it would definitively show that the mid-6th century was not dominated by a single massive volcanic event in AD 536, but was also influenced by an important eruption in AD 540-541 – an event currently missing from all ice core and historical literature. The mystery deepens…
Article and Scientic References: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2015/02/the-mystery-of-the-offset-chronologies-tree-rings-and-the-volcanic-record-of-the-1st-millennium/#sthash.vNTXTbxa.dpuf

A.G. Gelbert comment:

I think the evidence for erroneous ice core dating is irrefutable. In fact, a rate of dating error inducement may be a function of hydraulic forces with increased age. That is, the older the ice core date, the greater the error. If a formula could be computed by a scrupulous comparison of dendrochronology data and historical human culture written and oral eye witness accounts of eruptions and cooling events, this would clear up the dating discrepancies, including the issue of diseased flora false signals.

Although ice core dating specialists may claim, with vigor, that they already factor in hydraulic forces, the new data suggests they are in error. 

I realize only historical eruptions have are being considered here, but would not pre-historic eruptions, as observed in ice cores and dendrochronology, help eliminate the ice core errors?

We have access to dendrochronology back to at least 6000 years. About 7,000 ago, the eruption of Mount Mazama—now Crater Lake—in southern Oregon was would have been spectacular to any one viewing it and would certainly have affected the tree rings within thousands of miles.

Also, the Mount Gambier volcano eruption 5,000 years ago in Australia would provide dating synchronization data.
http://monash.edu/news/show/new-clues-to-prehistoric-eruption

To the ice core specialists claiming their dating is accurate: Science is not about prideful turf protection. You made and honest mistake. Now correct it. 
Hope deferred maketh the heart sick: but when the desire cometh, it is a tree of life. Pr. 13:12

AGelbert

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Re: 🚩 Global Climate Chaos ☠️
« Reply #176 on: February 25, 2015, 01:45:06 pm »
 
Huge New Methane Blowholes in Siberia Have Scientists Worried Climate Change Is to Blame


Anastasia Pantsios | February 25, 2015 10:20 am

The large methane-filled blowholes that were discovered in Siberia last summer seem to be more numerous than originally thought, with four giant new craters, along with clusters of smaller ones, found in the permafrost in northern Russia. The new holes were discovered in the same general vicinity as the original three, on the Yamal Peninsula.


This map shows the locations of some of the craters scientists are discovering in Siberia. Image credit: Vasily Bogoyavlensky

“We know now of seven craters in the Arctic area,” professor Vasily Bogoyavlensky of the Moscow-based Oil and Gas Research Institutes and the Russian Academy of Sciences told the Siberian Times. “Five are directly on the Yamal peninsula, one in Yamal Autonomous district, and one is on the north of the Krasnoyarsk region, near the Taimyr peninsula. We have exact locations for only four of them. The other three were spotted by reindeer herders. But I am sure that there are more craters on Yamal, we just need to search for them. I would compare this with mushrooms: when you find one mushroom, be sure there are few more around. I suppose there could be 20 to 30 craters more.”



One of the first blowholes was discovered by helicopter. Image credit: Marya Zulinova, Yamal government press service

The cause of the blowholes is not entirely clear, although probable explanations have been coming into focus as Russian scientists have continued to study them. The most prominent theory is that exceptionally warm temperatures caused by climate change have released methane stored in the permafrost, causing a sort of explosion that creates the craters.

Bogoyavlensky says two of the craters have turned into lakes, as examination of satellite images has allowed scientists to learn more about them, their location and how numerous they are. It complements the exploration inside the craters undertaken late last year. Bogoyavlensky has urged further exploration but has warned about the risks involved, saying that leaking methane could cause new explosions at any time.


Satellite images reveal more craters than previously thought. Photo credit: Vasily Bogoyavlensky

“We know that there can occur a series of gas emissions over an extended period of time, but we do not know exactly when they might happen,” he said. “For example, you all remember the magnificent shots of the Yamal crater in winter, made during the latest expedition in November 2014. But do you know that Vladimir Pushkarev, director of the Russian Centre of Arctic Exploration, was the first man in the world who went down the crater of gas emission? More than this, it was very risky, because no one could guarantee there would not be new emissions.” 

http://ecowatch.com/2015/02/25/new-methane-blowholes-climate-change/
Hope deferred maketh the heart sick: but when the desire cometh, it is a tree of life. Pr. 13:12

AGelbert

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Re: 🚩 Global Climate Chaos ☠️
« Reply #177 on: February 26, 2015, 02:05:02 pm »
Berkeley study directly IDs climate change culprit
 
By David Perlman
 
Updated 9:43 pm, Wednesday, February 25, 2015


 http://www.sfgate.com/science/article/Berkeley-experts-study-strengthens-human-link-6101054.php
Hope deferred maketh the heart sick: but when the desire cometh, it is a tree of life. Pr. 13:12

AGelbert

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Re: 🚩 Global Climate Chaos ☠️
« Reply #178 on: March 01, 2015, 05:21:21 pm »
3 Connections Between Climate Change and Extreme Weather
http://ecowatch.com/2015/03/01/connections-climate-change-extreme-weather/

Agelbert Comment:


There is a LOT more. The deadly elephant in the temperature and weather extremes room is GEO-ENGINEERING.

A fellow in Boston asked my why he was so cold if global warming is going on.

GO said,
Quote

Still waiting for a dissertation on Global Warming, and it better be good, no BS or Charts. My ice blue testicles and over a grand in oil bills so far demand an explanation.

GO,

The extreme cold (and by the way, it's a LOT WORSE where I am in Vermont than where you are (Boston) or where RE (Alaska) is as well!) is a DIRECT consequence of GLOBAL WARMING.

If you will recall, we went through this subject last year around this time when I said 2014 promised to be hotter than hell (never been there but ya get the idea  ;D). You scoffed. 2014 was the hottest year on record.

Based on my track record of accuracy and integrity (see the numerous times I took Snowleopard to task for pushing fossil fueler mendacity and propaganda - something that always seemed to upset you for some reason.   ), I am going to explain to you what our FOSSIL FUEL OWNED GOVERNMENT is DOING to further fu ck things up with their desperate attempt to put a DR. Strangelove Geo-engineered "heat shield" on the planet.

This is a quote from a recent discussion with Eddie.

QUOTE

February 16, 2015, 01:00:38 PM

 Eddie,

I believe geo engineering is quite advanced even though they (quote from our government "we will own the weather by 2025"  ) don't "own" the weather yet. The reflective aluminum particles being sprayed routinely for over a decade now to keep our climate from over heating (see stretching the profits of fossil fuel oligarchs that OWN our government) are having several unexpected results.

1) the temperature extreme ranges have increased in degree span and rapidity of switching from normal to extreme heat or extreme cold is killing wildlife.

2) Vitamin D deficiency is now common in the USA when it was RARE just two decades ago. As a medical professional, you know that Vitamin D deficiency can lead to a plethora of deleterious health issues, including giving you lots of dental problems, never mind the weaker bones in growing children, early osteoporosis in adults and less immune system defense of several types of cancers.



3) Allergic reactions to the new toxins in the air for thousands of different species, including Homo SAPs.




4) There is a lot more
but that has to do with government media and medical profession CORKING of the reporting of, medical recognition of and proper treatment of humans experiencing harmful side effects from this profit preserving scheme for fossil fuelers trying to prevent or/and delay global warming.

Anecdotally, I have something to report that has me absolutely raging mad. The temperature is way too low for normal in Vermont. It's been that way for a couple of weeks. That long of a period with temperatures hovering just above or below zero (even in daylight) is NOT Vermont weather and, except for the little ice age centuries ago, never has been.

Even when it gets real cold, the animals survive BECAUSE the longer sunlight period in late February and early March enables them to warm their nests in the day. But when you **** with the sunlight by putting reflective particles in the air, this VITAL buffer that enables animal life to make it to the spring is gone. This is a DEATH SENTENCE for much of Vermont wildlife that doesn't hibernate.

Today I found an uninjured adult squirrel frozen to death. It was laying on our driveway. It's just another debt the MKing's of this world do not own up to with their profit over planet murderous irresponsibility.

F UCKING BASTARDS!

UNQUOTE

GO,

YOU and I are experiencing this SH IT because of people like YOU KNOW WHO. No Vermont town has EVER publicly broadcast over the TV and radio that people MUST leave their faucets RUNNING at pencil width of water. Winooski (just south of Colchester and slightly LESS Norh Pole Fu cking Cold than Colchester) is telling Vermonters to do this in order to avoid huge expenses in road and frozen pipe repairs UNRELATED to the frozen pipes in homes. CLEAN water is being WASTED because of this COLD. People's water bills will not be raised but YOU KNOW we-the-people will end up paying for it somehow! They want us to leave the faucets running THROUGH March!!! Water pipes in homes are bursting from here all the way to ATLANTA, Georgia!

Do you think Mking (a fossil fueler propagandist climate denier) and his pals are willing to foot the bill, or do you think, PERHAPS, that they will, ONCE AGAIN, disingenuously ask, "Uh, what happened to global Warming?".

 You, as a keen listener, do not need a lot of words to figure this out.

The Geo-Engineering Techno-Fix that the governemnt has been orchestrating for about 20 years will go down in history as the most colossal mistake mankind has ever made (see below).

Hope deferred maketh the heart sick: but when the desire cometh, it is a tree of life. Pr. 13:12

AGelbert

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Re: 🚩 Global Climate Chaos ☠️
« Reply #179 on: March 05, 2015, 03:07:55 pm »

Phil Rasch is a liar. Every single documented case of cooling caused by volcanic eruption aerosols from 537 A.D. eruption two decade "cooling" to this day HAS BEEN TEMPORARY and HAS NOT slowed down the overall heating trend after Younger Dryas. 

THAT heating trend has been accelerated far beyond the planet's natural thermostatic control mechanism by the burning of fossil fuels. Phil Rasch knows that. However, he has a job to do  for the fossil fuel government. So science must, ONCE AGAIN, take a back seat to fossil fuel profits. 


Since a "How to stop the planet's atmosphere from threatening fossil fuel profits  " meeting in 1997, that we-the-people WERE NOT TOLD ABOUT, decided that the DOE and the DOD would GeoEngineer a "heat shield" with aerosols  , BOTH the Department of Energy (DOE) and the Department of Defense (DOD) have studiously denied that they are actively engaged in this THEFT of taxpayer dollars to MASK Global Warming for the sake of fossil fuel profits.

NASA and NOAA have been gagged to say NOTHING about the FAILURE of aerosols to cool the planet as a whole.   >:(

The deleterious side effects of the sprayed chemicals (like the FACT that just ONE of the chemicals used contributes to DROUGHT) are also taboo subjects in the medical community and the news media.  >:(

ANY pro-aerosol baloney said by Phil Rasch, Chief Scientist for Climate Science at the DOE's Pacific Northwest Lab,  must be viewed in the appropriate context.  ;D

 You KNOW that good old Phil has a nice package of graphics and 24/7 data plot of exactly where the tankers are dumping the aerosols so he can DIRECT more dumping here or less there. This FOSSIL FUEL TOOL is as "objective" about aerosols spraying as Mking.

A word about the propaganda front that attempts to capitalize on "we can stop global warming" baloney.


WHERE do you think the talk about the "pause" in global warming SINCE THE YEAR 2000 came from. HUH!!!? These bought and paid for greedballs KNEW what they were doing with those aerosols and, true to there mens rea modus operandi, began their propaganda campaign by tracking cherry picked temperatures DIRECTLY related to the aerosol spraying we were NOT being told about. These evil predators are crafty bastards, aren't they?

Too bad for them that volcanic aerosols, although they did create local cooling periods, NEVER DID slow global heating overall BEFORE fossil fuel massive burning began with the industrial revolution pollution.

At present, there is not a snowball's chance in hell that they will actually slow global warming. Please keep that in mind when you read news reports about erupting volcanoes like the following marvel of half truths:


 
03/04/2015 01:42 PM         
Could This Volcanic Eruption Slow Climate Change?
SustainableBusiness.com News
 
At around 3AM this morning, one of Chile's most active volcanoes began erupting, forcing evacuations of 4000 people.

Villarrica is one of the few permanently active volcanoes in the world, and this latest eruption - the strongest in 20 years - could give humans a hand in slowing climate change.
When volcanoes erupt, they spew sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere (where it turns into aerosols), which gradually make its way around the earth, reflecting heat into space - thus, cooling down our planet for several years until it finally dissipates.

"Yes, this can be the planet's own form of climate engineering,"    Phil Rasch , Chief Scientist for Climate Science at the Department of Energy's Pacific Northwest Lab, told Christian Science Monitor.

Indeed, this is one of the more promising forms of human geoengineering that scientists are working on . They would seed clouds with sulfur dioxide, mimicking volcanoes.   

Is this eruption big enough to make a dent in global warming? Scientists don't know yet, they are taking measurements, but blow-outs over the centuries have cooled the earth as much as 0.3 degree C.  *

9000-foot high Villarrica through an ash plume up another few kilometers high, and although the eruption ceased by morning, seismic ratings are still high, which could mean more action.  ::)

http://www.sustainablebusiness.com/index.cfm/go/news.display/id/26182

Agelbert NOTE: RIGHT... Notice that neato key word, "action" and key phrases like "mimicking volcanoes" and "volcanoes + sulphur dioxide =  global cooling" fascinating bits of doubletalk. WHY? Because Sulphur dioxide AIN'T ENOUGH  to do the job for starters.

The aerosols they are charging we-the-people to spray (without telling us about it until they can, hopefully, claim it worked stop warming! Then, like Mking, regardless of the externalized costs to fauna and flora, they will claim they were NOT doing it for fossil fuel profits, but for our own good. LOL!) have a plethora of toxic substances (sorry, no sulfur dioxide) that are KNOWN carcinogens and KNOWN drought inducing chemicals and KNOWN endocrine disrupters. 

These types of articles are designed to do exactly what corporations do with GMOs. They first tell you about how it's "NATURAL" (looky here, volcanoes are natural planet coolers!).

The next step, in a subsequent article published when they want to claim victory, is to tell us they were/are "mimicking NATURE" (by adding a few totally unnatural chemicals made by a chemical corporation at taxpayer expense) FOR OUR OWN GOOD!
Believe this crap at your pocketbook's expense and your peril. 

 
* This is a HALF TRUTH. The fact is that the temperature TREND continued going UP after a LOCAL pause. They DO NOT have historical access to data on a planetary scale beyond ice cores and dendrochronology. BOTH tree rings and ice cores are LOCAL phenomenon from which scientists have EXTRAPOLATED assumptions about global average temperature conditions.

ONLY at present, with the global temperature monitoring sensors in place, can scientists state unequivocally whether the globe is warming or cooling. And the hard data says it is warming with an accelerating trend, PERIOD.   

Quote
QUOTE No, climate change is not experiencing a hiatus. No, there is not currently a “pause” in global warming. UNQUOTE

Climate Oscillations and the Global Warming Faux Pause Filed under: Climate Science — mike @ 26 February 2015 - See more at: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2015/02/climate-oscillations-and-the-global-warming-faux-pause/#sthash.r8nREqGU.dpuf
« Last Edit: March 05, 2015, 06:47:30 pm by AGelbert »
Hope deferred maketh the heart sick: but when the desire cometh, it is a tree of life. Pr. 13:12

 

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