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Author Topic: Global Warming is WITH US  (Read 29840 times)

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AGelbert

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Four Missing as Car Carrier Capsizes at Port of Brunswick, Georgia
September 8, 2019 by Mike Schuler

Golden Bay capsized at port of brunswick - U.S. Coast Guard Photo

Update (Monday, Sept. 9, 2019): Contact Made with Missing Crew Members -Breaking

(Sunday, Sept. 8, 2019): The U.S. Coast Guard and multiple agencies are responding after car carrier became disabled and capsized with a fire on board Sunday morning in St. Simons Sound, Brunswick, Georgia.

A search is underway for four missing people.

The U.S. Coast Guard said it was notified at approximately 2 a.m. on Sunday that the 656-foot vehicle carrier Golden Ray was disabled and listing heavily with a fire on board in the St. Simons Sound. The ship had a total of 24 people on board, including 23 crew members and 1 pilot.

U.S. Coast Guard Photo

The Coast Guard reported on Twitter that it and other agencies had multiple rescue assets on scene and were in process of evacuating crew members from the vessel.

Currently, 20 people have been safely removed and four people remain unaccounted for.

#Update Evacuations of the Golden Ray’s crew continue. All vessel traffic in the Port of Brunswick is currently suspended unless approved by the @USCG Captain of the Port. #HappeningNow pic.twitter.com/F7JbdGCShU
— USCGSoutheast (@USCGSoutheast) September 8, 2019

The vessel’s master and chief engineer are assisting authorities and salvage teams to develop plans to stabilize the vessel and continue rescue efforts, the Coast Guard reported.

Coast Guard units involved in the response include:

Two Coast Guard Station Brunswick Response Boat crews
Two Coast Guard Air Station Savannah MH-65 Dolphin helicopter crews
Coast Guard Cutter Heron launched to assist
Coast Guard Sector Charleston
Marine Safety Unit Savannah
Coast Guard Salvage Engineering Response Team (SERT) launched to assist


The Port of Brunswick Captain of the Port (COTP) has established an emergency safety zone in St. Simons Sound. Vessels are not authorized within .5 miles of the overturned ship.

The Port of Brunswick is the second busiest roll-on/roll-off port in the United States and the number one for new auto imports. Port of Brunswick is comprised of three deepwater terminals owned by Georgia Ports Authority, including two directly operated by the GPA.

AIS ship tracking data shows the Marshall Islands-flagged Golden Ray was outbound from the port when it became disabled. The ship has a destination of Baltimore.

The cause of the incident is under investigation.

Also assisting in the response are the Georgia Department of Natural Resources, Moran Towing, SeaTow, Brunswick Bar Pilots Association, and the Glynn County Fire Department.

https://gcaptain.com/four-missing-as-car-carrier-capsizes-at-port-of-brunswick-georgia/

Agelbert NOTE: Global warming is bringing rougher seas. It will get worse.

Climate Change, Blue Water Cargo Shipping and Predicted Ocean Wave Activity: PART 1 of 3
Hope deferred maketh the heart sick: but when the desire cometh, it is a tree of life. Pr. 13:12

AGelbert

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Re: Global Warming is WITH US
« Reply #1906 on: September 09, 2019, 04:29:43 pm »
Agelbert NOTE: I am reposting ths article due to the fact that the graphics in the original have been so thoroughly hacked by the 🦖 Hydrocarbon Hellspawn, that anyone trying to read it would be discouraged from the missing graphics. I laboriously recovered the graphics, so the first part is, once again ;D, legible and instructive for those who care about the future of our biosphere and want to know where, EXACTLY, to assign the blame for the continued profit over people and planet multiple extinctions causing rampant degradation. Remember, somebody (i.e. 🦕😈🦖) out there hacked the crude oil tanker picture, the RCP scenario graphics, the scientists 2 degree C rise danger warning pictures and ALL the ECM graphics because they did not want YOU to know the Global Warming facts. All the graphics unrelated to climate change and hydrocarbon fuels were not hacked. The hacking is VERY targeted. For that reason alone, I encourage you to read it and pass it on.


Climate Change, Blue Water Cargo Shipping and Predicted Ocean Wave Activity

PART ONE OF THREE PARTS

In this three part article I explain what the scientific community defines as the "Business as Usual" scenario in regard to atmospheric pollutants fueling Global Warming. A brief review of the existential threat to marine life that this scenario represents will follow.

Subsequently, I discuss global shipping. I provide a summary of the tremendous importance of blue water (deep ocean) cargo shipping to global civilization. You will be surprised at how vital to global civilization blue water cargo shipping is. All the military vessels, all the pleasure yachts and even all the fishing fleets are insignificant in tonnage compared to that of ocean going cargo and tanker vessels.

I then leave the subject of shipping and the types of cargo vessels, which I return to at the end, to provide the reader with a graphic climate history of the Northern Hemisphere, from the last Glacial Maximum to the present, followed by the, scientifically based, predicted sea level and land vegetation changes in the "Business as Usual" scenario within the next 85 years.

The discussion then returns to cargo ships and their behavior in rough seas. I provide graphics to explain what has been learned about ocean waves in the last 40 years that shocked the scientific community and caused them to go back to the drawing board on the science and math formulas of hydrodynamics in regard to maximum wave heights. Some tragic cargo vessel losses from "rogue" waves (that turned out not to be as "rogue" as science had thought) are presented as evidence that the oceans are becoming increasingly dangerous to shipping.

Finally, the Hansen et al paper, published in June of 2015, is referenced as evidence of a coming abrupt sea state change that will make modern blue water surface cargo shipping either too costly or impossible. The reason for this will be explained in detail with graphics showing ocean wave action and modern shipping design limitations.

Included in the last section that ties all the others together is a reference to another scientific paper published in July of this year (2015) that provides evidence that the worst case scenario ("Business as Usual") modeled by the scientific community severely understates the amount of sea level rise in the next 85 years.

I conclude with recommendations on what the governments of the industrialized countries of the world need to do within the next decade in order to prevent a collapse of civilization (or worse) within the next 25 years.

Let us begin with these nuggets of climate science from NASA:

Carbon Dioxide Controls Earth's Temperature

Water vapor and clouds are the major contributors to Earth's greenhouse effect, but a new atmosphere-ocean climate modeling study shows that the planet's temperature ultimately depends on the atmospheric level of carbon dioxide.

Without non-condensing greenhouse gases, water vapor and clouds would be unable to provide the feedback mechanisms that amplify the greenhouse effect.

The study ties in to the geologic record in which carbon dioxide levels have oscillated between approximately 180 parts per million during ice ages, and about 280 parts per million during warmer interglacial periods. To provide perspective to the nearly 1 C (1.8 F) increase in global temperature over the past century, it is estimated that the global mean temperature difference between the extremes of the ice age and interglacial periods is only about 5 C (9 F).

"When carbon dioxide increases, more water vapor returns to the atmosphere. This is what helped to melt the glaciers that once covered New York City," said co-author David Rind, of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies. "Today we are in uncharted territory as carbon dioxide approaches 390 parts per million in what has been referred to as the 'superinterglacial'."

"The bottom line is that atmospheric carbon dioxide acts as a thermostat in regulating the temperature of Earth," Lacis said.
Quote
"The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has fully documented the fact that industrial activity is responsible for the rapidly increasing levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.

It is not surprising then that global warming can be linked directly to the observed increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide and to human industrial activity in general
."

http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/co2-temperature.html

So, if you read some happy talk from the fossil fuel industry that it's the "water vapor" that is causing global warming, be sure and reference the above study (and the companion study also mentioned at the link) just before you call them on their ignorance, or worse, their duplicity.


You just read about the huge difference a mere 5 degrees C (Centigrade) can make.
Here's a graphic to give you an idea about how effective our greenhouse gas (GHG) shell is at keeping us from turning into a ball of ice.


Greenhouse gases are vital to regulating Earth's temperature. But there is a goldilocks band of these gases that must be adhered to in order to provide a viable biosphere.

In addition, GHG changes in concentration within that band must proceed, down or up, at or slower than a certain rate in order to allow the organisms that live in that biosphere to adapt to the changes or they will go extinct.

Industrial civilization has BOTH exceeded the upper margin of the GHG band by a huge margin AND has done it at a rate far above the ability of most complex non-microscopic organisms to adapt to these violent changes. Mammalian vertebrates, among the complex organisms on Earth, are the least able to adapt to rapid GHG concentration changes.


There is no precedent in the geological record for the increase in CO2 caused by the burning of fossil fuels over the last century. And the rate those fossil fuels are being burned is increasing, not slowing down or ceasing.

Non-self aware mammalian vertebrates, unlike us, cannot use technology to adapt. This is the part the CEO of ExxonMobil (Rex Tillerson) forgot accidentally on purpose when he said, "We will adapt to that". Mr. Tillerson is an idiot or a liar (possibly both). Those "qualities" seem to be a job requirement for those that work in the fossil fuel industry.

Mr. Tillerson's optimistic happy talk is not based on climate science or the geological record.

Quote
"Mass extinctions due to rapidly escalating levels of CO2 are recorded since as long as 580 million years ago."

http://theconversation.com/another-link-between-co2-and-mass-extinctions-of-species-12906

Whether we humans want to admit it or not, we need the 75% of all of Earth's species in danger of extinction from climate change. I know it is really hard for the fossil fuel industry predators 'R' US crowd to wrap their greedy heads around this, but it's hard to live on a diet of hydrocarbons. And if we don't stop burning them, both our plant and animal food supply, along with thousands of other species of other earthlings that make this planet viable, will go extinct.

This is not hyperbole. Mass extinctions are part of the geological record. In all but one of those mass extinctions, the rapid rise in GHG was the cause of the extinctions. Furthermore, in all the former mass extinctions, the RATE of rise in GHG was much slower than today.
Quote

"As our anthropogenic global emissions of CO2 are rising  at a rate for which no precedence is known from the geological record with the exception of asteroid impacts, another wave of extinctions is unfolding."

http://theconversation.com/another-link-between-co2-and-mass-extinctions-of-species-12906


According to the latest scientific studies on Global Warming, "Business as Usual", touted as the basis for the continued health of global civilization, is actually the greatest threat to global civilization and our species that we have ever faced.

Before we get to what exactly is meant by, "Business as Usual", let us first review the human caused pollution effects on ocean physical chemistry and temperature and marine species biochemistry.

The following review references an analysis of oceans that totally omits a growing problem for worldwide shipping. Although the review is mostly very bad news, it may turn out to be, in terms of what deals the collapse triggering blow to human civilization as we know it, the "good" news.

The World Ocean Review

The ocean may be buffering the most severe consequences of climate change for now. But in the long run we can only hope to avoid these if we strictly curb GHG emissions today.

Experts are concerned that hundreds of thousands of tonnes of methane hydrate could break down due to the warming of seawater – gas masses that are lying inertly in solid, frozen form in the sea floor sediments today. A portion of the methane, which is a powerful greenhouse gas, could then rise into the atmosphere and further accelerate the process of climate change – a vicious circle.

The oceans absorb many millions of tonnes of carbon dioxide annually. They are the largest “sink” for anthropogenic CO2 emissions. The excess carbon dioxide, however, upsets the chemical equilibrium of the ocean. It leads to acidification of the oceans, the consequences of which are unpredictable. Acidic water disrupts the sense of smell in fish larvae, carbonate formation by snails, and the growth rates of starfish. The phytoplankton, tiny algae in the ocean and vital nutrient basis for higher organisms, are also affected by acidification.

The coastal environment is still being damaged by effluent and toxic discharges, and especially by nutrients conveyed to the ocean by rivers. Thousands of tonnes of nitrogen and phosphorus compounds flow into the ocean around the world, causing an explosion in algal reproduction. In many coastal regions the catastrophe begins with the death of the algae. Bacteria feed on the algal remains and consume oxygen in the water. In these oxygen-depleted zones all higher life forms die off. Efforts to reduce nutrient levels have been successful in Western Europe.

Worldwide, however, the input of nutrients is becoming increasingly problematical. People are, without a doubt, abusing the oceans in many respects, and this is increasing the stress on marine organisms. Through over-fertilization and acidification of the water, rapid changes in water temperature or salinity, biological diversity in the ocean could drop worldwide at increasing rates. With the combination of all these factors, the disruption of habitats is so severe that species will continue to disappear.

Clearly the oceans continue to be the “last stop” for the dregs of our civilization, not only for the persistent chemicals, but also our everyday garbage. Six million tonnes of rubbish end up in the ocean worldwide every year. The trash is a fatal trap for dolphins, turtles and birds. Plastic is especially long-lived and, driven by ocean currents, it collects in the central oceans in gyres of garbage covering hundreds of square kilometres. A new problem has been identified in the microscopically small breakdown products of plastics, which are concentrated in the bodies of marine organisms.

http://worldoceanreview.com/en/wor-1/wor-1-in-short/

That World Ocean Review I just quoted from, after laying out the hard facts, incredibly goes on to happily discuss ocean mining opportunities and methane hydrate harvesting plans for "energy products" for "energy independence". The only caveat they supply is more of an epitaph for human willful denial of facts than a precautionary warning. Please file the following in the WTF!? category.

Quote
Energy from burning ice

In addition to abundant minerals, there are large amounts of methane hydrate beneath the sea floor. Some countries hope to become independent of energy imports by exploiting marine gas hydrate deposits near their own coasts. The technology for production, however, is not yet available. Furthermore, the risks to climate stability and hazards to marine habitats associated with extraction of the methane hydrates must first be clarified.


http://worldoceanreview.com/en/wor-3-overview/methane-hydrate/

Yes, it seems the DANGER of extracting methane hydrates has not been "CLARIFIED" enough. Neither the Permian Extinction geological record nor the PETM (Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum) geological record has "clarified" the methane issue enough.

Hello? Is this, a more recent pre-human epoch, CLARIFICATION enough for you fellows providing your business friendly "World Ocean Review ", claiming, among other wonders of optimistic prose, that the sea level is only going to rise about 180 cm by century's end?


The following alarming, but still too conservative, MIT study EXCLUDES the ABRUPT climate change positive feedback loop effects we are now beginning to experience.

Do they think this MIT study needs "clarification"?

And the DANGER of an acidified ocean to most marine species, which will clearly be exacerbated by the methane bomb, has not been clarified? Didn't Professor Gerardo Ceballos, lead author of a study published in June of 2015 on the Sixth Mass Extinction we are now entering, with particular emphasis on marine mammal extinction threats, get the word?

I think he and his fellow scientists CLARIFIED the methane issue AND the CO2 pollution issue rather well. For those that do not get it, the CO2 pollution, now baked in, is already threatening marine mammals with extinction. When methane hydrates are added to the mix from a warmed ocean, acidification will accelerate and trigger anoxic conditions throughout the ocean water column, thereby destroying the food chain. That is a death sentence for most non-microscopic marine life and a large portion of the microscopic oxygen producing microscopic phytoplankton as well.


These scientifically challenged, insultingly naive, business friendly, bland statements sold as "sober advice" are precisely the kind of double talk that has placed humanity in the polluted situation it finds itself.

Some have blamed the scientific community.



They forget that scientists are mostly employees. They forget that businesses gag their reports or keep their published, peer reviewed papers from the public on a regular basis. So the criminally negligent here are business leaders, not scientists.

My experience with reading these big picture reviews of our terribly polluted situation is that they seem to feel obligated to give some peppy, optimistic, happy talk at the end.

Do these people understand what "business as usual" means? It appears that either they don't or willfully avoid doing so.

The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) has a scientific name for Business as Usual. They have modeled it. They have a number for it. It's called the RCP-8.5. RCP stands for Representative Concentration Pathway.


Business as usual is a death sentence for over 75% (or more) of life on Earth.

The people that defend business as usual are deluded. There is evidence, which I will present, that even the RCP-8.5 scenario is too conservative. And yet the methane issue needs "clarification"?

Dr. Scott Goetz (Deputy Director and Senior Scientist of the Woods Hole Research Center) has that thousand yard stare for a reason.

CHANGES IN THE ARCTIC AND THEIR CLIMATE FEEDBACK IMPLICATIONS: Interview with Scott Goetz


Friends, there is a crime being committed. But the guiltiest parties do not want to pay for their share of the damage. And that is why these reviews lack the urgency that they need to have in order to successfully convince government policy makers to alter our destructive trajectory.

But I have discussed that in my recent article, Dianoia is sine qua non to a viable biosphere.  So, I will move on to other matters of concern to humanity.


Global shipping

Human civilization has come to rely on the relatively inexpensive movement of millions of tons of cargo over the oceans.

It is difficult or impossible to avoid a collapse without the use of the oceans.

To underline the importance of cargo shipping as the lifeblood of civilization, you need to look at the massive amount of tonnage these ships move globally on a daily basis.


Tankers, bulk carriers and container ships are the most important means of transportation of our time. Each year they carry billions of tonnes of goods along a few principal trade routes. Containerization has revolutionized global cargo shipping, bringing vast improvements in efficiency.


Throughout history the oceans have been important to people around the world as a means of transportation. Unlike a few decades ago, however, ships are now carrying goods rather than people.



Deadweight tonnage (abbreviated to dwt) or tons deadweight (TDW) is a measure of how much mass a ship is carrying or can safely carry; it does not include the weight of the ship.

Agelbert NOTE: Please take note of the caveat, "safely carry".  More on what that means later.

In terms of carrying capacity in dwt,


tankers account for 35 per cent,


bulk carriers account for 35 per cent,



container ships 14 per cent,



general cargo ships 9 per cent



and passenger liners less than 1 per cent.

In all, the global merchant fleet has a capacity of just under 1192 million dwt.

Shipping Activity of Tankers, Cargo and Cruise Ships on October 12, 2015:

The growth of the global merchant fleet according to type of vessel (as at 1 January [sic]) 2009.
http://worldoceanreview.com/en/wor-1/transport/global-shipping/

There is a LOT of shipping out there and a LOT of ships. If the above graphics have not brought home to you how much shipping is going on 24 hours a day, 365 days a year, take a look at this:

In summary, this is what is out there going hither and yon across the oceans on a regular basis:
Singapore anchorage

Most of those affordable products in our homes are a direct result of a the uninterrupted global lifeblood of efficient blue ocean shipping. If that shipping was no longer possible, global civilization would be impossible because it would be unaffordable. It is, therefore, extremely important to ensure that human civilization can use those oceans for routine cargo transportation. 

The oceans, as was pointed out earlier in this article, are a giant heat sink. The more CO2 we pump into the air, the hotter the oceans get. When the oceans get hotter, they become more active. This means trouble for shipping.

Insurance companies do not like that. They analyze the risks of blue water shipping and track any trends that might increase those risks. They have actuaries that pay a lot of attention to losses of insured ships.

All commercial shipping is insured. You and I are billed for insuring, not just the merchant fleets, but the military ships too! That's what the "defense budgets" lobbied for by all those welfare queen corporations, constantly whining about that "dangerous world out there", are all about.

Well, it looks like all shipping is going to find out how DANGEROUS the oceans, not some invented threat about bellicose humans, can be. The insurance actuaries already know that the "terrorist" or piracy threat on the high seas is insignificant compared to the threat of sinking from rough seas.

Of course you haven't read that in the papers. But you will read it here. And I will provide evidence for it.

But I'm getting ahead of myself. To understand what is happening in the oceans today, we need to go back in time about 20,000 years. We need to go back to the Last Glacial Maximum.

WHY? Because the sea state, as well as the sea level, is a function of the average global temperature. In addition, the vegetation changes that accompany changes in the average global temperature can have deleterious effects on the sea state, totally separate from the dire extinction threat these temperature changes represent to marine organisms.

The Environmental Change Model (ECM)

The following series of graphics deals with accurately modeled representations of the climate in a large part of the Northern Hemisphere centered on the Arctic. A link to the science and the source is provided. The average global temperature and pertinent data on the ice cover and types of vegetation is provided. Of particular importance to the reader are the different types of Tundra coverage. The legend has color codes for the graphical representations.

NOTE: The Greek letter "DELTA" ="Δ". It is used in science to mean, "Change in". The referenced average global temperature is what we have today (about 15 degrees Centigrade = T).

So, ΔT = - 6C is a change in average temperature of minus 6 degrees centigrade from today. THAT was when there was a two mile high glacier sheet edge near what is now New York City. That was also when the oceans were 120 meters = 394 feet lower than they are today.

http://cci-reanalyzer.org/ECM/

Notice how much dry and moist Tundra there was.
Notice the range and size of the types of forests and the polar desert coverage too. At a glance you can see that this was a very dry world in comparison to our world.

Fast forward to ΔT = - 0.5C.
This was the Little Ice Age of 1850. That was just before the industrial pollution revolution had gotten up to full biosphere trashing speed.

Sea level is close to the present level. Notice how the forest cover has changed. Notice how the Tundra moved north as the ice retreated. Notice how the forests and the forest Tundra transition changed.


Tundra responds in one of two ways when it goes above freezing. It has to do with the available oxygen. If there isn't enough in the soil, the microbes resort to anaerobic metabolism and make lots of methane. This is NOT methane locked in the Tundra. This is NEW methane. This is unrelated to the methane hydrates frozen on the ocean bottom, but it is still an additional feedback mechanism that increases the RATE of atmospheric heating. So these mechanisms are, by definition, not linear. They can become self reinforcing. That means they can go exponential.

Below, please find, the world we all grew up in (ΔT = 0C.). I have labeled some areas for clarity. The Tundra continues to shrink, as does the ice coverage. The forest transition area creeps north and the forests grow along with the prairie grass covered areas. There is less ice.


Which brings us the IPCC RCP-8.5 scenario labeled "Business as Usual".

This scenario is considered "worst case". It does not expect us to hit  ΔT = plus 2C until 2050. The boundless optimism of the IPCC sounds a lot like those fellows doing the "World Ocean Review" that mentioned the methane "issue" needed "clarification" right after they admitted that the PRESENT conditions were causing the extinction of most marine animals. 

Please look at this graph:

The line with the number "1" is the  IPCC RCP-8.5 scenario. The temperature increases in lines 2 and 3 ARE NOT in the IPCC RCP-8.5 scenario.

ΔT = plus 2C is considered extremely dangerous.
 

The IPCC projects a mere 0.5 meters sea level increase by 2050. But the July 2015 study that I reference in the graphic claims a sea level rise greater or equal to 6 meters (over 19 feet!) is evidenced in the geologic record for this type of temperature rise.

The IPCC projected sea ice decline to 2010 will give you more context to understand why it is unrealistic to believe that we will not hit the  ΔT = plus 2C until 2050.


But nevertheless, the IPCC RCP-8.5 scenario for ΔT = plus 2C is instructive because the Tundra is disappearing. You know what that means for increased methane release, don't you?


A note about the word, "Equilibrium" on the graphic: The word "Equilibrium" means that the full effects of the temperature change are being felt throughout the planet. Glaciologists had previously thought that "equilibrium" effects on ice sheets took centuries or millennia.

Now, because of empirical observations on the Greenland ice sheet, Antarctica and various glaciers in the world, they have come to accept that equilibrium is reached in decades or in years, depending on the temperature anomaly increase. As you know, or should know, the polar regions have warmed over 3C MORE than the rest of the planet in the last 50 years. 

The huge differential was not plugged in to the IPCC models so they are too conservative on ice retreat and sea level rise. So, if somebody tells you that all this is a long way off, they are uninformed or working for the fossil fuel industry.

I will return to the dangers of the ΔT = plus 2C (and beyond) world in a moment.

For now, I wish to show you the rest of the IPCC RCP-8.5 scenario projections. Please remember that they are conservative projections and the effects portrayed will most likely arrive 25 years or more earlier than predicted. Also please remember that the actual sea level increase (see graphic below),

Science 10 July 2015: Vol. 349 no. 6244 DOI: 10.1126/science.aaa4019
Sea-level rise due to polar ice-sheet mass loss during past warm periods

according to the July 2015 paper referenced previously, will be several METERS, not feet, above the predictions.

ΔT = plus 3C

Sometime after the loss of the ice cap, all the Tundra will have thawed. ALL the trapped gases, be they CO2 or CH4, will be released. Added grasses absorbing CO2 will not be enough to counteract the warming acceleration.

There are those who expect a negative feedback from the stopping of the thermohaline oceanic current circulation (stopped by all the cold fresh water melted off the Greenland ice cap into the oceans). Perhaps that will help slow the heating (north of about 45 degrees latitude - below that they will roast even more!) for a decade or so. But it will do nothing to calm the ocean surface.

ΔT = plus 4C


The worst effect is that Arctic ocean bottom frozen clathrates will thaw and the methane will be released. The planet will continue warming increasingly faster past  ΔT = plus 4C.

 That will exacerbate ocean conditions 🌊even more. With more and more heat energy present, the ocean surface will get increasingly more turbulent. And we will already be well past the ΔT = plus 2C mark.

As evidenced by the two referenced scientific studies, both published recently this year (2015), and the woefully conservative IPCC predictions on the rate of the North Polar Ice Cap retreat, Antarctic and Greenland ice cap melt rates, and temperature rise rate, sea level will most likely rise a minimum of 6 meters within 10 years, not 35 years. We are talking about 2025, not 2050, for a ΔT = plus 2C world. We are not preparing adequately for that.

For those who will point to the increase in size of the floating ice around Antarctica as evidence that the Earth is not really warming, I beg to differ.

The fact that the Antarctic land mass IS losing ice has been measured with satellites. It is losing ice because of global warming. It is true that the floating ice around Antarctica has increased and will continue to increase as long as the Antarctic land mass is shedding melt water.

This is because of two factors. The first one is that there are very high winds around Antarctica, unimpeded by any land mass. The second factor is that fresh water freezes more rapidly on the ocean surface than salty water.

That's why salt is spread on roads in winter. On the ocean, the water molecules must rid themselves of the sodium and chloride ions dissolved in them before they can freeze. All the ice floating on the oceans is water ice. It has no salt in it.

And as long as that floating ice is the product of melt water from the Antarctic land mass, it will ADD to sea level.

And when the sea level goes up just 6 feet, never mind the 19 feet or more increase expected with CURRENT CO2 levels, all shipping port facilities (and most coastal airport facilities too!) in the world are no longer usable without gargantuan and heroic efforts requiring trillions of dollars in costs for every foot the land and port infrastructure must be raised.

It seems that the countries (see every industrialized country on the planet) dragging their feet on CO2 reduction actions do not understand this. There are, as of this writing, over 140 countries investing trillions of dollars in port facilities.

No, they aren't raising the level of the port facilities to prepare for rapidly rising sea levels. They are trying to cash in on container shipping by building more container shipping infrastructure.  


Don't these governments listen to their climate scientists?


End of PART ONE.

Climate Change, Blue Water Cargo Shipping and Predicted Ocean Wave Activity: PART TWO


Thank you for reading this article. Have a nice day.
« Last Edit: September 10, 2019, 01:15:12 pm by AGelbert »
Hope deferred maketh the heart sick: but when the desire cometh, it is a tree of life. Pr. 13:12

AGelbert

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Bahamas Death toll FAR HIGHER than 🙊 reported
« Reply #1907 on: September 10, 2019, 09:53:52 pm »
BLACK BEAR NEWS 9.9.19 Non reporting of casualties in Bahamas - New Yorker article
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Black Bear News
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Hurricane Dorian survivors take stock as death toll rises in the Bahamas
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Hope deferred maketh the heart sick: but when the desire cometh, it is a tree of life. Pr. 13:12

AGelbert

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Climate Lab Book
Open Climate Science

September 12, 2019 By Ed Hawkins  e.hawkins@reading.ac.uk

Atmospheric temperature trends

The lower atmosphere is warming 🚩 while the upper atmosphere is cooling – a clear fingerprint of the enhanced greenhouse effect from human emissions of carbon dioxide.

The simple explanation is that some of the infrared radiation emitted by the surface, which would have normally reached the upper atmosphere, is absorbed by greenhouse gases in the lower atmosphere. The upper atmosphere therefore receives less energy than before, and so cools. The very warm years (intense reds) in the upper atmosphere are the 1982-83 El Chichón and 1991-92 Pinatubo eruptions respectively.

Changes in global atmospheric temperature at different levels in the atmosphere from 1979 to 2018: surface, TLT, TTT, TMT, TLS. Data from Cowtan & Way, and RSSv4. The colour scale goes from -0.75K to +0.75K, relative to the average of 1981-2010 for each layer separately.

http://blogs.reading.ac.uk/climate-lab-book/2019/atmospheric-temperature-trends/

Hope deferred maketh the heart sick: but when the desire cometh, it is a tree of life. Pr. 13:12

AGelbert

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How Greenland's massive ice melt will totally transform the world
55,476 views•Published on Sep 11, 2019


Channel 4 News
840K subscribers
Remember that heatwave back in August? Well, the Arctic remembers it too. Record rates of ice melt have been recorded on the great ice-shelf of Greenland. It's critical for all of us because of its potential effect on global sea levels. In the first of a series of special reports from Greenland, we examine the threat to the giant glaciers and to those whose lives depend upon the sea ice.

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News & Politics
Hope deferred maketh the heart sick: but when the desire cometh, it is a tree of life. Pr. 13:12

AGelbert

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2°C: BEYOND THE LIMIT

By Chris Mooney and John Muyskens | Photos and videos by Carolyn Van Houten

SEPT. 11, 2019



Hope deferred maketh the heart sick: but when the desire cometh, it is a tree of life. Pr. 13:12

AGelbert

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BLACK BEAR NEWS 9.14.19 Extinction or Extermination?
« Reply #1911 on: September 14, 2019, 10:01:38 pm »
BLACK BEAR NEWS 9.14.19 Extinction or Extermination?
287 views•Published on Sep 14, 2019


Black Bear News
2.4K subscribers

Rio de Janeiro Records its Highest Ever Winter Temperature
https://riotimesonline.com/brazil-news/miscellaneous/rio-de-janeiro-records-the-highest-winter-temperature/

Drone strikes knock out half of Saudi oil capacity, 5 million barrels a day 
https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/14/business/saudi-oil-output-impacted-drone-attack/index.html


This Is Not the Sixth Extinction. It’s the First Extermination Event.
https://truthout.org/articles/this-is-not-the-sixth-extinction-its-the-first-extermination-event/

Twitter @BlackBearNews1

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Hope deferred maketh the heart sick: but when the desire cometh, it is a tree of life. Pr. 13:12

AGelbert

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Hope deferred maketh the heart sick: but when the desire cometh, it is a tree of life. Pr. 13:12

AGelbert

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Re: Global Warming is WITH US
« Reply #1913 on: September 17, 2019, 01:15:10 pm »
Doomstead Diner's "RE": "I Cannot See How This Monetary System Can Survive More Than Ten Years"

Agelbert OBSERVATION: Surly, in this interview with Sam, RE tells the story of the Doomstead Diner, completely leaving my contributions to that forum and blog for nearly five years, out. :( Considering that I am the one who first brought the Collapse Chronicles dude videos to the attention of the Doomstead Diner, and considering that many views were generated there by my posts, it's rather disappointing. I remember when RE was ready to close up shop in the summer of 2013 from lack of visitors and new members and I helped cheer him up and keep going. I guess he forgot.

BUT, there is more. It seems that RE is unaware that you post here, because when he mentioned the Admins posting there, he specificially said that, though K-Dog posts additionally in his own blog, "Surly ONLY posts at the Doomstead Diner". It seems that RE has written me out of his history.

Most of the rest of the interview is devoted to RE's views on economics, always leaving Renewable Energy and ethics TOTALLY out of the picture, while harping on the "importance" of hydrocarbons. That is, the "lack" of hydrocarbons is what RE continues to, erroneously, IMHO, believe will cause the "collapse" (that never seems to come). I'm surprised he didn't launch into the old "high energy density" happy talk so favored by all hydrocarbon based energy WORSHIPPERS.

Although I am quite familiar with RE's arguments, listening to this interview I confirmed much about RE's world view that I had previously only suspected. I know RE is your friend, Surly, so I will not share with you what I think of RE's, "without oil, civilization will collapse and most of us are all gonna die" pitch, never mind his selective memory.

Of course RE is spot on about Trump. 👍

Finally, I will always be grateful to RE for setting up this forum and suggesting the "Renewable Revolution" name for it. 👍

That said, the interview cleared up any lingering doubts about the wisdom of my decision to stop posting at the Doomstead Diner.


The best way to court heartbreak is to expect gratitude from others. In his best days, RE has always been about himself, first, last, always, regardless of the pious pronouncements. And these are far from his best days. As his health deteriorates, his attitudes and awareness of others has as well. Don't sweat it. I run the DD Facebook page, which reaches more people in a week than the Diner forum , and he has no idea about that either.

Expect ingratitude, and you'll never be disappointed. Especially with him.


Agreed. What bothers me far more than my disappointment with RE's self centered selective memory is his irrational clinging to a theory about "collapse" based on a lack of availability of hydrocarbons. His fantasy about small tribes of humans survivng after "peak oil" causes a "collapse" has no scientific basis whatsoever.

The amount of hydrocarbons being produced for fuel worldwide is actually increasing, NOT "decreasing from peak oil".

On top of studiously ignoring that hydrocarbon hellspawn 'peddle to the metal' production reality, RE dismisses the 30 year lag time MASSIVE DEATH CAUSING INERTIA in Global Warming that puts us into the hothouse earth human species shitstorm as if that is a "survivable" situation. In the interview he admits the average global temperature may increase 10 degrees C but refuses to accept the FACT that anything above 2 degrees C is a funeral dirge for Homo sap. RE's pitch on the climate is that the Earth's biomass is "just too big" for GHG caused Catstrophic Climate Change to "threaten the human species with extinction".   

RE is worse than a climate change denier; he is a hydrocarbon fuels loving, Catastrophic Climate Change EXISTENTIAL THREAT DENIER.

IOW, RE is stuck in his, "peak oil will save us" pretzel logic ideology.

Catastrophic Climate Change Science FACTS pass over him like water off a duck. I pity anyone that is convinced by his dangerously flawed arguments. He is actually dooming people that are convinced by his pitch, not "saving" them.

But then, what can one expect from somebody who has publicly stated he is a great friend of 🦕 Gail Tverberg, the "energy expert" who is a card carrying member (see: "this finite world" hydrocarbon "scarcity" means the price has gotta go UP! 😈) of the 🦖 hydrocarbon hellspawn "industry"?

RE's claim in the interview that world shipping is showing signs of "collapse" evidences his delusional stance about the "coming collapse". Sam pointed out some facts about world shipping activity and RE responded with his famous "I'll cut up anybody's argument claiming world shipping is thriving like a thanksgiving turkey".

Apparantly RE, in his confirmation bias zeal to see only what he wants to see, never visits the World Marine Traffic website.



None so blind as those who refuse to see.
Hope deferred maketh the heart sick: but when the desire cometh, it is a tree of life. Pr. 13:12

AGelbert

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Hope deferred maketh the heart sick: but when the desire cometh, it is a tree of life. Pr. 13:12

AGelbert

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... a way to bring some urgency to the matter ...
« Reply #1915 on: September 18, 2019, 04:36:39 pm »

WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 18, 2019

| Nine days left to raise $50,000. Can we do it? |

By C.J. POLYCHRONIOU, TRUTHOUT

Noam Chomsky and Robert Pollin: If We Want a Future, Green New Deal Is Key
Quote
Yet, just at the time when all must act together, with dedication, to confront humanity’s “ultimate challenge,” the leaders of the most powerful state in human history, in full awareness of what they are doing, are dedicating themselves with passion to destroying the prospects for organized human life.

While the planetary future looks grim, there is a realistic global climate stabilization project that is economically and technically feasible -- if we can find the political will to implement it, say Noam Chomsky and Robert Pollin, co-authors of a forthcoming book on climate change and the Green New Deal. This month's climate strikes are a way to bring some urgency to the matter and raise public awareness.

Read the Interview →

Hope deferred maketh the heart sick: but when the desire cometh, it is a tree of life. Pr. 13:12

AGelbert

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"Earth Warming More Quickly Thank Previously Thought" ( ::) What a Surprise)
575 views•Published on Sep 18, 2019


Collapse Chronicles
3.06K subscribers

In today's Chronicle of the Collapse, I read an article from Phys.org titled "Earth Warming More Quickly Than Thought." Here is a link to the rest of the article:
https://phys.org/news/2019-09-earth-q...
If you would like to support Collapse Chronicles, there are several ways to do just that. You can hit the Paypal Donate icon on the homepage, or send a Paypal donation through collapsechronicles@gmail.com

If you would like to become a Patron of Collapse Chronicles, here is a link to my Patreon page:
https://www.patreon.com/user?u=16077447

If you would like to send a check or money order to support this channel, you can email me at collapsechronicles@gmail.com.
Thank you!

Category News & Politics




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'Dead tree after dead tree.' The case of Washington's dying foliage


Trees are shown through fog on Friday, April 5, 2019, in the Hoh Rainforest on the Olympic Peninsula.
CREDIT: KUOW PHOTO/MEGAN FARMER
When Jim and Judy Davis moved to their property in Granite Falls two and a half years ago, the trees in their 25-acre forest were healthy.

Then the hemlocks started to turn brown.

Now, “if we were to walk this path completely -- it’s about a quarter of a mile -- this is what you would see,” Jim Davis said, “just dead tree after dead tree.

“It’s just a feeling of sadness and helplessness."

News outlets around the country are providing special coverage this week of climate change. KUOW will have stories and interviews on the crisis and what to do about it. #ClimateCoverageNow

So the Davises called in Kevin Zobrist.

“I feel like I'm always coming out to a crime scene, you know: another dead tree, another one lost, coming out to investigate,” Zobrist said.

Zobrist is a forestry professor at Washington State University. He said this isn’t just a problem on the Davis’ property.

“When I drive up and down the highways around western Washington, I just see dead and dying hemlocks all up and down the roads,” Zobrist said. “We first noticed it right around 2016, and now I just see it everywhere.”

And it’s not just hemlocks. Western red cedars and big-leaf maples are struggling as well. All three species are native to western Washington.

Zobrist isn’t the only one seeing this: KUOW’s listeners have been writing in to ask about why they’re seeing so many dead trees.

Zobrist thinks the answer lies in climate change.

“At this point in time, my top suspect is drought — drought stress from climate change,” he said. “We've seen records being set for heat and drought in a number of years in a row now, starting with 2012.”

“This summer was a little bit better,” he said. “But that cumulative drought stress is really taking its toll.”

Thirst can weaken trees’ immune systems, and then something else, like an insect or fungus, can kill them.

It's not just happening in places we can see it, like gardens, parks and roadways. It’s happening deep in the forest as well.

Glenn Kohler, a forest entomologist for the Washington Department of Natural Resources, visits a forest near Bellingham where he spotted dead trees during an annual forest health survey.
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Glenn Kohler, a forest entomologist for the Washington Department of Natural Resources, visits a forest near Bellingham where he spotted dead trees during an annual forest health survey.
CREDIT: KUOW PHOTO/EILIS O'NEILL

Glenn Kohler, a forest entomologist for Washington’s Department of Natural Resources, and his colleagues fly over every forested acre of the state every year and measure how many trees have died.

“So the individual trees or a patch of dead trees are going to have the same kind of red color that's easy to see from an airplane,” Kohler said. “That's what we're mapping.”

“The amount of that is increasing right now,” he said.

In 2018, Kohler and his colleagues found that nearly 500,000 acres of Washington’s forests had some level of damage. That’s an area bigger than all of Kitsap County.

In short, western Washington’s forests are changing, Zobrist said. Some trees may be lost in places where they used to be able to survive.

“This is, I think, the first really visible impact of climate change in our area,” Zobrist said. “And it's kind of a warning of things to come.”

Jim and Judy Davis say, now that the initial shock of the dying hemlocks has worn off, they’ve come up with a plan. They’re going to take out some of the dead trees and limbs to reduce fire risk around their house, and they’ve started to plant new trees, choosing drought-tolerant native species.

Zobrist said other homeowners can do the same thing.

Also, he said, take a look around the tree, at what else might be competing for water.

“Grass is the worst,” he said. “I see lots of situations where there's a lawn or tall grass all the way up to the edge of the tree and that grass layer robs all the water, so get the grass out of there. Replace that with a good three to four inches of mulch.”

The Davises hope measures like these will help their forest survive for decades to come, for their kids and seven grandkids.

This story is part of Covering Climate Now, a global collaboration of more than 220 news outlets to strengthen coverage of the climate story.


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Sea Level Rise Maps
« Reply #1918 on: September 19, 2019, 07:05:58 am »
Sea Level Rise Maps
Speculative maps showing the changes to our world from an 80m sea level rise. Effectively all ice on earth having melted. Created with a variety of climate science reference, digital elevation models, and Photoshop.
Vancouver Sea Level Rise
Bay Area Sea Level Rise
Toronto Sea Level Rise
Europe Sea Level Rise
North America Sea Level Rise
Asia Sea Level Rise
« Last Edit: September 23, 2019, 02:37:35 pm by AGelbert »

AGelbert

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🧐 Great visuals!
« Reply #1919 on: September 19, 2019, 02:49:42 pm »
Great visuals on the sea level rise maps! 
« Last Edit: September 19, 2019, 10:43:49 pm by AGelbert »
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