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Author Topic: Global Warming is WITH US  (Read 25946 times)

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AGelbert

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Re: Global Warming is WITH US
« Reply #1365 on: June 17, 2018, 06:35:56 pm »
Agelbert NOTE: If you have a few minutes to hear what the top scientists out there are saying to each other about our climate change situation, check this radio program out from Radio Echoshock. Basically, they are appealing to philanthropists because scientists are convinced that governments are living in "we'll think of something" happy talk la la land.

Posted on June 6, 2018

SNIPPET 1:

Welcome to Radio Ecoshock. Later I’ll be talking with NASA scientist Matt Rodell about a new map of future Earth in a changed climate. Meanwhile, many European countries had the hottest May in over a hundred years or more. It’s hot and stormy, with hundreds of thousands of lightening strikes. But first this.

MICHAEL MIELKE: CLIMATE EMERGENCY, ECO-EMERGENCY

Are you already experiencing extreme climate change? We are. Around here, the new greatest record flood ever was just subsiding from homes and downtown streets – when the wildfires began. We had 90 degree heat in May (32 degrees C), in Canada. In the last few days mosquitoes have driven everyone inside. We don’t get mosquitoes here. Listeners in the American mid-West, the East Coast, and people around the world know what I’m talking about. We are getting worn down, and the real impacts of climate change are still ahead.

Why are world leaders still talking about 1.5 degrees C global warming as though that was still possible? Why is the American government calling it all a hoax? Why isn’t the media warning everyone, every day?

With too many questions I can’t answer, I called up a lifeline. Micheal Mielke calls himself a “Cultural Transformation Engineer”. He was the Executive Director for a movement that became the Coastal Wetlands Planning, Protection and Restoration Act for Louisiana and the Gulf Coast, passed by Congress.

SNIPPET 2:

THE CORPORATE WORLD 💵 🎩 – SILENT PARTNERS 🙉 🙊 TO CLIMATE CATASTROPHE 🏴‍☠️

Disney Corporation and ABC shut down the Roseanne Barr show, due to her racist Tweets. It took them just a few hours to do it. But all the major media companies rake in billions of advertising dollars promoting gas-burning cars and trucks designed to emit greenhouse gases for at least another 20 years. What’s wrong with that picture?  >:(

We can understand why the Koch Brothers bribe politicians, or at least fund their elections, to keep their oil profits rolling in. But what about the other corporations? Their investors and CEO’s have kids who need a livable future. So do their customers. Why can’t corporate America, corporate Europe, or Japan, or business everywhere plan for salvation of the climate and the species?

DRAGON AND DELUSIONS

In May 2018 Michael and the Association for the Tree of Life released a new ebook titled “Climate and Ecological Delusions and Contradictions That Will Rapidly End Humanity 🏴‍☠️ …Unless…”It is free to anyone online. The MAHB site at Stanford immediately published a shorter summary piece, and Resilience.org picked it up too.

We Are All in the Clutches of the Delusion Dragon
 
It’s time to accept that we are not going to dislodge the entrenched interests holding back effective action on looming climate chaos by any means tried so far. Believing that 97% of credible scientists is consensus enough is 103% short for effective response.

KEVIN ANDERSON AND THE AMERICA CLIMATE EMERGENCY SUMMIT THAT NEVER WAS…

Many of my scientific guests, including Kevin Anderson, point to plenty of delusions and contradictions. But as Michael tells us, science alone cannot disable the suicide switch built into this civilization. The Chair of ATL met with Dr. Kevin Anderson at the Paris Climate Summit in 2015. Michael told me in an email:

“Following that, we were involved with a large effort, coordinated with Bernie Sanders during the campaign, (Bernie twice mentioned “mobilizing for climate” during the campaign), to have a “climate summit,” during the first 100 days of a Clinton Administration.

Russell Green was the key person, and he had over 20,000 people and organizations behind him (including our ATL), and with Clinton’s agreement and Sander’s causing it to happen, the Democratic Platform contained that Climate Summit. I asked Kevin to chair the Summit from the scientific perspective, and he agreed.”


Of course, when Donald Trump 🦀 was elected, the American emergency Climate Summit never happened, and the Donald withdrew the United States from the Paris Climate Accord. A world-changing opportunity was missed, with costs too big to calculate.

Full free podcast interview:

https://www.ecoshock.org/2018/06/calling-a-lifeline.html
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AGelbert

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Re: Global Warming is WITH US
« Reply #1367 on: June 19, 2018, 05:39:47 pm »
Agelbert NOTE: This is a refreshingly objective analysis of Guy McPherson's prediction and the actual threats to civilization from Catastrophic Climate Change.

Global Glacier, Arctic and Antarctic Ice decline, CO2 pollution and global dimming are covered factually.

Denier myths like "a new ice age is coming because the sun is getting weaker" and "human civilzation (i.e. burning fossil fuels) caused GHG emissions are not warming the atmosphere" baloney exposed with facts.

This man is a prepper with all his scienctific facts ducks in a row. He backs what he says with scientifc data.

He agrees that civilization collapse is near but he does NOT agree that it will happen on Guy's timetable. 

It is well worth the 30 minutes of this video to listen to him and view his slide presentation.

Society to COLLAPSE September 2018...Probably
 


Quote
Huples Cat Emergency Preparedness Lifestyle

Published on Jun 11, 2018

Guy McPherson believes industrial global society will probably collapse this September (in three months!)
This will lead to an abrupt rise in global temperatures due to global dimming being turned off and the extinction of all humans by 2026 at the latest.

Super Climate Doomer or the only one who sees it as it is? You decide. Wide ranging talk here on this aspect of prepping.

If you decline to accept human caused climate change or if you embrace it this talk should offer you much food for thought.

I am intending to live and not doing much differently based on this news. Frankly I'll be shocked if it appears as predicted but if it does then it does.



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AGelbert

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Re: Global Warming is WITH US
« Reply #1368 on: June 19, 2018, 06:14:41 pm »

Climate & Extreme 🔥 🌩 💧 🌪 Weather News #125 (5th-13th June 2018)


Understanding Climate Change

Published on Jun 13, 2018
00:27 Germany: Meiningen, Kaiserslautern & Dudeldorf flash floods
04:53 France: Bretuil, Chaponnay & Salies-de-Bearn flash floods
10:43 Bulgaria: Varna flash flood
11:02 Slovakia: Bratislava flash flood
11:29 Spain: Sitges flash flood
13:04 Italy: Bussoleno mudslide & Rosta hailstorm/flash flood
17:20 Slovenia: Crnomelj hailstorm
18:56 Austria: Neunkinchen flash flood
19:52 China: Typhoon Ewiniar & Guangdong floods
22:39 India: Northern storms
23:06 Bangladesh: Floods
24:10 Mexico: Guadalajara & Papantla flash floods
28:11 Panama: Panama City flash flood
29:01 The USA: The 416 Wildfire
30:28 New Zealand: North Island storm
30:59 Temp Data: inc. C3S May, June anomalies & anomaly forecasts
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AGelbert

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Re: Global Warming is WITH US
« Reply #1369 on: June 19, 2018, 09:08:43 pm »
Time to Wake Up: Polar Distress: Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (June 2018)

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AGelbert

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Re: Global Warming is WITH US
« Reply #1370 on: June 22, 2018, 07:51:47 pm »


June 22, 2018

#Energiewende #Government #Industrial policy

Hannoversche Allgemeine Zeitung

Heavy industry employers’ association criticises German government for inaction in energy policy

The German government currently administers past achievements and fails to set new impulses in economic and energy policy to ensure that the current economic upswing can be sustained, Rainer Dulger, head of the heavy industry employers’ association Gesamtmetall, says in an interview with the Hannoversche Allgemeine Zeitung. “In many areas, they simply tick boxes of the coalition treaty.

If we criticise something, we only hear ‘What do you want? Things are working just fine’.” But apart from the economy, nothing is fine,” Dulger says. “The Energiewende is utter shambles,” he says, arguing that Germany shuns an inevitable public debate over changing its fundamental approach.

http://www.haz.de/Nachrichten/Wirtschaft/Niedersachsen/Gesamtmetall-Praesident-Rainer-Dulger-prangert-fehlenden-Reformeifer-der-Bundesregierung-an

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AGelbert

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Re: Global Warming is WITH US
« Reply #1371 on: June 22, 2018, 08:21:48 pm »
The Billionaire Class is Not Fit to Rule – Paul Jay

June 21, 2018

The ruling elites are creating a world where the majority of people suffer the consequences of the climate crisis and massive unemployment while the super-rich use artificial intelligence to save themselves – a commentary by TRNN’s Senior Editor


Story Transcript

The urgency of the situation is startling. The more I look at it, the more it scares the hell out of me. But that’s sort of the point. We need to tell people the whole truth about the urgency of this historical moment. The existential threat of the current moment. Of course, it feels overwhelming, but it does not have to be paralyzing. People can say we are being alarmist, but it’s past time to be alarmed.

While the fight for health care for all, a higher minimum wage, unionization, against systemic racism, mass incarceration and other necessary reforms are just and critical to engaging people in struggle, we also need to tell people the whole truth about just how critical the big picture is.

While the Trump 🦀 presidency is a cabal of criminals, billionaires and far-right ideologues, it must first of all be seen in the context of the threats to our very existence, not merely reduced to the daily scandals and twitter storms. There is no need to treat working people as infants. The culture is aimed at the infantilization of our political discussion. We can believe that America is already great or that we should Make America Great Again, but it’s all the religion of Americanism, and it’s meant to make us willing children who will march into battle or just resign ourselves to things the way they are. We are not infants and we must, as best we can, tell people the whole truth.

As catastrophic and savage as capitalism was during the 20th century, continuous wars and genocides, deep economic crisis and the constant threat of nuclear annihilation, the system proved to be resilient, the global elites did find a kind of equilibrium. Capitalism did not come to an end and the attempts at socialism failed. While many societies around the world have been destroyed, millions slaughtered in war and many more living in deep poverty, the truth is the majority of the people in the advanced capitalist world are mostly doing ok. In the United States there are as many families earning more than $100,000 a year, as there are earning under $30,000. But as resilient as capitalism has proved to be, I don’t think this world order is sustainable. The elites are no longer capable or willing of dealing with grave systemic threats, even when it is in their own long-term interests to do so.

We’re in a different kind of moment than we’ve ever faced before. Of course, nuclear weapons posed an existential threat before, but at least the elites saw that ending human life on earth wasn’t in their interests. That is so far that’s true. Because as crazy as the prospect of nuclear war is, they have not given up their deteriorating hair triggered nuclear arsenals and they actually contemplate the use of localized nuclear weapons. As you know, first Obama planned for a new wave of nuclear weapons, and now Trump is spending billions expanding America’s nuclear capability. While it’s unlikely that the elites will deliberately launch a nuclear Armageddon, we are all living in denial if we think that an accidental triggering of such isn’t possible. The hair trigger policy means there is around ten minutes to decide if what looks like an attack is one or is a glitch in the software. It’s a cold war posture still in place in the United States and Russia, it’s Dr. Strange Love’s Doomsday machine. We can’t have faith in the political leadership of these elites, that is the current leadership of either the Republican or the Democratic Parties or the billionaires who bankroll them, to face up to this danger. One would think it’s in the interest of the elites themselves to deal with this. But the military-industrial complex has far too much invested in a narrative that depends on a major existential rival. They need war and almost war.  American capital will not give up it’s dominant global commercial position they believe depends on their military might. Oil and guns determines US foreign policy, not national security. On this point alone, one can argue this ruling class is not fit to rule. But of course, there is more.

Modern industrial capitalism has given rise to the climate change crisis, a clear and objective existential threat to human and all living things. I’m sure Real News viewers have heard the basic facts, and the process is speeding up. Leading climate scientists have modeled that we will cross the 2 degrees above pre-industrial temperature threshold by 2050, and that was based on all the countries that signed the Paris accords living up to their commitments. Of course with the election of a climate denier as president and the undoing of the far too modest measures that were passed under Obama, who knows what that means to the model. We could cross 2 degrees in less than twenty years? Once that threshold is crossed, apparently, it’s far more difficult to slow down and reverse the process. Dramatic action is needed now. But it’s far down the list of things that get discussed in corporate media. According Media Matters, in the 2016 elections, the four major broadcast channels gave climate change 96 minutes of coverage, and those numbers included Fox who promotes climate denial.

According to a Yale poll, only 13% of people know that more than 90% of scientists believe humans activity causes climate change. Of course, it’s more like 97% of scientists. When it comes to voting, its barely on anyones radar. Yet it is clearly the gravest threat humans have ever faced.

You would think that the elites would find it in their own interest to take action given the apocalyptic consequences of denial or feeble action. But effective policy requires taking on the fossil fuel industry and committing to a green and sustainable economy. Clearly it will require strengthening the role of the public sector and democratizing the political process. It requires changing how things are owned and who has power. Even modest reforms are almost impossible as most of the elites care more about lowering taxes than saving the planet. They are not fit to rule.

Artificial Intelligence is here and rapidly advancing. It will soon produce a world with millions less jobs. Truck and taxi drivers to doctors to you name the occupation, it won’t be long before the top twenty percent of the population, won’t need most of the 80%. If you are a capitalist, a world with massive unemployment might not seem to be so bad, workers trying to compete agains the cost of robots.

The digital revolution makes all this possible. It’s allowed the process of financialization and globalization to grow to a qualitatively greater scale. Imagine creating complex financial products with a pencil and paper. There’s no Amazon or Walmart without computers to create such a beautifully efficient global supply chain. And of course, to play cheap global labor off against American workers which has basically stalled wage increases and hollowed much of the industrial working class.

Why can’t the ruling elites deal with the systemic threats of climate change, financial crisis, global war, and AI? Threats to the future of their own system?  Because they are in the middle of an o r g y of profit making. They can’t believe their good fortune. If they had any doubts before the election, Wall St. now loves Trump. Even though most of finance knows that unregulated, it’s only a matter of time before the crisis of 07/08 repeats itself. But what the hell, no one will go to jail and the public will bail them out again.

Wall St. is euphoric as they swim in an ocean of super wealth. While the financial sector represents about 7 percent of our economy it takes around 25 percent of all corporate profit, with only 4 percent of all jobs. With such concentrated wealth goes a competitive culture that prizes daily returns on capital, above the future of humans on earth. These are the people that control American politics as they throw unlimited funds at political campaigns.

The threat of climate crisis? The elites believe, if they actually think beyond their private jets and yachts, that they will be ok. Their kids will be ok, even their grandkids. And then? Apres Moi le Deluge. After me comes the floods said Louis the XV. In Maryland we just saw much of a city washed away, and it’s surely the shape of things to come.

I think potential of Artificial Intelligence is why the elites who think about such things, are not more alarmed by climate change. Rather than take the necessary measures to transform the economy to one that’s green and sustainable, they are planning to literally head for the hills. They have escape plans. They imagine cities on the hill serviced by robots. It’s the stuff of science fiction, but it’s on the horizon. Their greatest fear is not the cataclysmic destruction of the rest of humanity, but that AI will take over from the humans. Frankly, in that world, I’m rooting for the robots. This ruling class is not fit to rule. We must tell people the whole truth.

Those individuals in the elites who do see what’s coming and are trying to sound the alarm, and there are more than a few, are marginalized.

Of course, corporate media plays a critical role in all of this. They are far too concerned about Russia Gate and Trump’s tweet storms than the critical issues that face us. For obvious ratings reasons, but one wonders how the producers and journalists that play this game live with themselves.

Everything comes down as always, to a simple question. If we have no faith in the ruling elites, and we shouldn’t, then we the people have to change who controls government and build the public sector to challenge the power of the oligarchy. Our job at The Real News is as best we can, tell people the whole truth. The lead up to the 2020 elections will be a critical time to tell this truth. The outcome of those elections can’t be overestimated.

As much as the digital revolution helped create a vile stratum of the ultra-rich, it’s also created the conditions for a more democratic economy and politics. The Sanders campaign has shown that the political structures that were built to look democratic because the power of billionaires would always win out, can be challenged with mass fundraising. Online organizing and social media has transformed political campaigning and made it less reliant on funds for TV ads. The internet allowed independent media to challenge the power of concentrated media ownership, it made The Real News possible. We are just seeing the early phase of what’s possible.

Most importantly, Artificial Intelligence makes a planned and rational economy possible. You can’t have a planned national economy with a pencil and paper, we’ve seen what bureaucracy that led to in the Soviet Union.  But AI gives us the promise of a planned, green and sustainable economy. In fact, massive planned economies already exist. Amazon or Walmart are superbly planned and rational, with an efficient global supply chain that interconnects production everywhere. Superbly planned, internally, as the economy and politics around them become increasingly insane. The problem is the tremendous promise of AI is being strangled by private ownership whose only objective is profit. Scientist Stephen Hawking said control of AI is in the end, the greatest fight we have before us. The fight to harness AI in the public interest can’t be separated from the fight to develop a rational climate policy or a more equitable society.

All over the country and the world people are organizing, fighting for such change. People are in action, at the ballot box and in the streets, to assert the people’s interests. At the Real News we want to strengthen our coverage of these movements, enrich our work on the search for effective solutions, and focus on reaching working people who rarely hear about the big picture in corporate news.

We will redouble our efforts to build our global Climate Crisis Bureau. We are building on our stellar coverage of global affairs, with a focus on US foreign and military policy. We are going hyper local in Baltimore, connecting the daily struggle for a safe and more equitable city with the systemic reasons for chronic poverty and unemployment. Soon we will go local in southern Pennsylvania, covering a congressional race where a progressive Democrat is taking on a Trump supporter. Here we will cover the issues of concern to people who voted for Trump and engage people in the search for real solutions.

And in whatever we do, we will do our best to tell people the whole truth. But we can’t do it without you. It’s critical that we have the funds to strengthen our content and our marketing reach. If you agree with what I’ve said so far, please hit the donate button now. Write a check. Make a phone call. In the US and Canada, the donation is tax deductible. If you are already a donor, thanks very much, and think about donation again. If you are not a monthly subscriber, during our matching grant campaign is the time to sign up. If you give monthly, our matching grant will match a year’s worth of donations. Help us tell people the whole truth. Help us Make Real News.

https://therealnews.com/stories/the-billionaire-class-is-not-fit-to-rule-paul-jay

 For the latest verision of Apex Predators,Tomorrow is Yesterday...

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AGelbert

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Re: Global Warming is WITH US
« Reply #1372 on: June 24, 2018, 01:05:47 pm »
If you have a few minutes to hear what the top scientists out there are saying to each other about our climate change situation, check this radio program out from Radio Echoshock. Basically, they are appealing to philanthropists because scientists are convinced that governments are living in "we'll think of something" happy talk la la land.

Posted on June 6, 2018

SNIPPET 1:

Welcome to Radio Ecoshock. Later I’ll be talking with NASA scientist Matt Rodell about a new map of future Earth in a changed climate. Meanwhile, many European countries had the hottest May in over a hundred years or more. It’s hot and stormy, with hundreds of thousands of lightening strikes. But first this.

MICHAEL MIELKE: CLIMATE EMERGENCY, ECO-EMERGENCY

Are you already experiencing extreme climate change? We are. Around here, the new greatest record flood ever was just subsiding from homes and downtown streets – when the wildfires began. We had 90 degree heat in May (32 degrees C), in Canada. In the last few days mosquitoes have driven everyone inside. We don’t get mosquitoes here. Listeners in the American mid-West, the East Coast, and people around the world know what I’m talking about. We are getting worn down, and the real impacts of climate change are still ahead.

Why are world leaders still talking about 1.5 degrees C global warming as though that was still possible? Why is the American government calling it all a hoax? Why isn’t the media warning everyone, every day?

With too many questions I can’t answer, I called up a lifeline. Micheal Mielke calls himself a “Cultural Transformation Engineer”. He was the Executive Director for a movement that became the Coastal Wetlands Planning, Protection and Restoration Act for Louisiana and the Gulf Coast, passed by Congress.

SNIPPET 2:

DRAGON AND DELUSIONS

In May 2018 Michael and the Association for the Tree of Life released a new ebook titled “Climate and Ecological Delusions and Contradictions That Will Rapidly End Humanity 🏴‍☠️ …Unless…”It is free to anyone online. The MAHB site at Stanford immediately published a shorter summary piece, and Resilience.org picked it up too.

We Are All in the Clutches of the Delusion Dragon

It’s time to accept that we are not going to dislodge the entrenched interests holding back effective action on looming climate chaos by any means tried so far. Believing that 97% of credible scientists is consensus enough is 103% short for effective response.

KEVIN ANDERSON AND THE AMERICA CLIMATE EMERGENCY SUMMIT THAT NEVER WAS…

Many of my scientific guests, including Kevin Anderson, point to plenty of delusions and contradictions. But as Michael tells us, science alone cannot disable the suicide switch built into this civilization. The Chair of ATL met with Dr. Kevin Anderson at the Paris Climate Summit in 2015. Michael told me in an email:

“Following that, we were involved with a large effort, coordinated with Bernie Sanders during the campaign, (Bernie twice mentioned “mobilizing for climate” during the campaign), to have a “climate summit,” during the first 100 days of a Clinton Administration.

Russell Green was the key person, and he had over 20,000 people and organizations behind him (including our ATL), and with Clinton’s agreement and Sander’s causing it to happen, the Democratic Platform contained that Climate Summit. I asked Kevin to chair the Summit from the scientific perspective, and he agreed.”

Of course, when Donald Trump was elected, the American emergency Climate Summit never happened, and the Donald withdrew the United States from the Paris Climate Accord. A world-changing opportunity was missed, with costs too big to calculate.

Full free podcast 🔊interview:

https://www.ecoshock.org/2018/06/calling-a-lifeline.html

Quote
Brent Jatko

It doesn't really matter. ExxonMobil's quarterly profits are apparently more important than the planet.

agelbert >Brent Jatko Bingo! They simply do not care. The following sea level rise is baked in. Absolutely nothing that is done, no matter how gigantic the effort, will stop this from happening.

That does not mean we should not try, but any Climate Change mitigating effort must be based on preserving the biosphere for future generations. It's too late to stop this and the next TWO generations from experiencing massive, worldwide Catastrophic Climate Change.

The timing of this sea level rise is still in question, but its inevitability, due to the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere, is not.



Quote
Steve Hanley > agelbert

Super response. Thanks. Love the graphic. And yes, it is happening no matter what we do. So depressing. But, you know.....Hillary's e-mails!!!!
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AGelbert

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Re: Global Warming is WITH US
« Reply #1373 on: June 24, 2018, 03:37:36 pm »


How long before the world runs out of fossil fuels? ???

LAST UPDATED ON JUNE 8TH, 2018 AT 3:57 PM BY TIBI PUIU 

Fossil fuels are the main source of energy in the world, powering much of modern civilization as we know it, from transportation to industrial applications. But this paradigm can’t last forever.

Millions of years to make, only hundreds of years to spend

Fossil fuels have formed over an extensive period of time from the remains of plants and animal that lived hundreds of millions of years ago. Humans have been using them in ample amounts since the 19th century and with our current rate of consumption, fossil fuel resources are depleting much faster than their formation. Naturally, the question arises: how long before we run out?

In the 1950s, geologist M. King Hubbert predicted that the world will experience an economically damaging scarcity of fossil fuels. This idea has remained in the collective consciousness as the Peak Oil theory, according to which the production of oil, as a finite resource, will peak at some point and ultimately decline and deplete. According to some researchers, Hubbert included, Peak Oil is already behind us, and we are now living in a decline.

So, how long before we run out of fossil fuels? In order to project how much time we have left before the world runs out of oil, gas, and coal, one method is measuring the R/P ratios — that is the ratio of reserves to current rates of production. At the current rates of production, oil will run out in 53 years, natural gas in 54, and coal in 110. This is bearing in mind a 2015 World Energy Outlook study by the International Energy Agency, which predicted fossil fuels will constitute 59% of the total primary energy demand in 2040, even despite aggressive climate action policies.

Other researchers, organizations, and governments have different deadlines for fossil fuel exhaustion, depending on the data and assumptions that they make, as well as political affiliation and interests. The American Petroleum Institute estimated in 1999 the world’s oil supply would be depleted between 2062 and 2094, assuming total world oil reserves at between 1.4 and 2 trillion barrels. In 2006, however, the Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) predicted that 3.74 trillion barrels of oil remained in the Earth — three times the number estimated by peak oil proponents. 👀


Is Peak Oil behind us? Not clear

While we know for sure that the exploitation of fossil fuels is limited, estimates can vary wildly because new deposits are sometimes found and new technology enables access to previously untapped oil or gas fields or allows more efficient extraction. So, the challenge in estimating a timescale for fossil fuel depletion lies in the fact that new resources are added fairly regularly. Therefore, we have to keep in mind that all of these estimates are based on R/P ratios and thereby only consider proven reserves, not probable or possible reserves of resources. For instance, in 1980, the R/P ratio suggested only 32 years of oil production from existing reserves. 

A 1977 report issued by the Energy Information Administration concluded that the United States could only access 32 billion barrels of oil reserves and 207 trillion cubic feet of natural gas reserves. But from then to 2010, the country extracted 84 billion barrels of oil (2.6 times more than the initial estimate) and 610 trillion cubic feet of gas (2.9 times the initial reserve estimate). What’s more, reserves are growing. Today, the U.S. has increased the size of its reserves by a third since 2011 thanks to horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracking which enable access to oil and gas trapped in underground rock formation. Previously, it wasn’t economically feasible to extract these resources.

As technology continues to improve, both governments and oil & gas companies will be able to access new reserves — some that can’t currently be exploited and others that are still unidentified.

Japan, for instance, is planning to one day extract methane from undersea hydrate deposits — these types of deposits may contain more than twice the amount of carbon as Earth’s fossil fuels.  


Elsewhere, climate change is opening corridors in the Arctic — ironically facilitated by the burning of fossil fuels — that enable extraction of oil that was previously logistically impossible to undertake. It was Russian company Gazprom that brought home the first barrels of oil from the Arctic in 2014, and more have followed since.

Again Russia, this time in partnership with France’s Total and China’s CNPC, wants to start drilling the Arctic in 2019 for natural gas. The $27 billion plant is expected to extract 16.5 million tonnes of natural gas per year.


Keep the oil in the soil

Some might fear that we’ll run out of oil and coal before we get the chance to replace them with renewable energy, thereby triggering a planetary-wide collapse of human civilization.

But that’s an unlikely scenario. First of all, if we burn even 50% of the world’s reserves, we’re screwed ☠️. Forget about the prospect of not being able to turn the lights for a second, and think greater perils: runaway climate change.

Despite having used only a small fraction of fossil fuels, the planet’s atmosphere is already around one degree Celsius warmer on average than it was prior to the Industrial Revolution. A 2016 study published in Nature Climate Change assessed what would happen if we burned all the fossil fuels known to exist on Earth. Assuming a scenario where there are no efforts to curb global warming, by 2300 CO2 would stabilize at roughly 2,000 parts per million (ppm), five times higher than today’s level (~408ppm) — resulting in a total of 5tn tons of carbon dioxide finding its way into the atmosphere.

In this nightmare scenario, global average temperatures would be pushed by 8 degrees Celsius past Industrial levels, with the Arctic bearing the grunt of warming, experiencing temperatures rising by as much as 17 degrees Celsius.

As such, the limiting factor on humans’ fossil fuel use is not the depletion of recoverable fossil fuels, but the crossing of a dangerous threshold past which the planet is no longer able to withstand the byproducts of burning fossil fuels.

Knowing oil and gas won’t ever run out in your lifetime shouldn’t be an excuse to keep using them. Rather, knowing this, we should all take action to ensure that our children and grandchildren actually have a future.  

https://www.zmescience.com/other/feature-post/how-long-fossil-fuels-last-43432/

Agelbert NOTE: The part not mentioned in this well referenced article is that our species has NEVER lived in a world where an average 3º Celsius past Industrial levels exists, never mind 8º Celsius past Industrial levels. Anyone who thinks we can delay transitioning to 100% Renewable Energy until the end of this century is dreaming. With PRESENT CO2 levels, 4º Celsius past Industrial levels is guaranteed BEFORE 2100. That means massive sea level rise and severe ocean acification, along with all the other biosphere degrading Catastrophic Climate Change effects. Add to that the FACT that Fossil Fuel Inndustry methane leaks have been seriously underestimated, and you have to move up every negative effect (i.e. positive feedbacks that accelerate heating) closer to us in time, making the situation even more urgent than it already is.   

The problem is GHG caused Catastrophic Climate Change, not lack of hydrocarbons to burn.


Unburnable fossil fuels to stay below 2º C limit



Quote
In 2006, however, the Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) predicted that 3.74 trillion barrels of oil remained in the Earth — three times the number estimated by peak oil proponents.

CERA is financed by the oil industry, to oppose the Peak Oil theory which will bankrupt them as soon as it is believed.

Quote
While we know for sure that the exploitation of fossil fuels is limited, estimates can vary wildly because new deposits are sometimes found and new technology enables access to previously untapped oil or gas fields or allows more efficient extraction.

To get a proper sense of proportion, this is discoveries and production over time.  The shortfall on discoveries is gigantic, because they have looked everywhere and there are no big discoveries left to be made:


Quote
Japan, for instance, is planning to one day extract methane from undersea hydrate deposits

The problem is they have no idea how to do it, and haven't even tried it yet on an experimental level.

The article is right as far as if we have the FFs, we will burn them and cause catastrophic climate change, but wrong in that oil WILL run out first.  Already they are producing shale oil with borrowed money and not making a profit, but can't stop because they have debts to repay.  Only the US has the ability to print fiat money and lend it to oil-frackers.  That's why the US is the only country doing it.

Renewables are energy-intensive to make, and when the current small levels are ramped up to greater levels, the FF energy just won't be there or affordable.

Down-shifting our energy lifestyles is vital, but no one wants to do it.  Gas-powered chainsaws to cut firewood, not the hand-axe.  And before RE chips in with all MY lifestyle faults, I only drive a 1500 cc Toyota Corolla, and never drive more than 32 Km round trip.  I would get a smaller car if there was one.  I NEVER fly.  I eat local produce wherever possible.  I NEVER buy frivolous stuff, or tickets to watch films, theatre, concerts, sporting matches, or coffee in cafes, or beer in pubs, or food in take-aways or restaurants.  With the carbon captured by my forest, I reckon I have a carbon neutral lifestyle.


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AGelbert

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Re: Global Warming is WITH US
« Reply #1374 on: June 24, 2018, 03:39:07 pm »



That graph only goes through 2004.  What do the latest real data points look like? ???

RE

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Re: Global Warming is WITH US
« Reply #1375 on: June 24, 2018, 03:41:43 pm »
Quote
In 2006, however, the Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) predicted that 3.74 trillion barrels of oil remained in the Earth — three times the number estimated by peak oil proponents.

CERA is financed by the oil industry, to oppose the Peak Oil theory which will bankrupt them as soon as it is believed.

Quote
While we know for sure that the exploitation of fossil fuels is limited, estimates can vary wildly because new deposits are sometimes found and new technology enables access to previously untapped oil or gas fields or allows more efficient extraction.

To get a proper sense of proportion, this is discoveries and production over time.  The shortfall on discoveries is gigantic, because they have looked everywhere and there are no big discoveries left to be made:[/size]

Quote
Japan, for instance, is planning to one day extract methane from undersea hydrate deposits

The problem is they have no idea how to do it, and haven't even tried it yet on an experimental level.

The article is right as far as if we have the FFs, we will burn them and cause catastrophic climate change, but wrong in that oil WILL run out first.  Already they are producing shale oil with borrowed money and not making a profit, but can't stop because they have debts to repay.  Only the US has the ability to print fiat money and lend it to oil-frackers.  That's why the US is the only country doing it.

Renewables are energy-intensive to make, and when the current small levels are ramped up to greater levels, the FF energy just won't be there or affordable.

Down-shifting our energy lifestyles is vital, but no one wants to do it.  Gas-powered chainsaws to cut firewood, not the hand-axe.  And before RE chips in with all MY lifestyle faults, I only drive a 1500 cc Toyota Corolla, and never drive more than 32 Km round trip.  I would get a smaller car if there was one.  I NEVER fly.  I eat local produce wherever possible.  I NEVER buy frivolous stuff, or tickets to watch films, theatre, concerts, sporting matches, or coffee in cafes, or beer in pubs, or food in take-aways or restaurants.  With the carbon captured by my forest, I reckon I have a carbon neutral lifestyle.

At the current level of resource depletion I believe the fuel for my chainsaw is worth it. I would never cut trees with an axe but move to a pull saw. Cold kills in this part of the world firewood is very important and worth the fuel. My land can produce all my wood for the year; for heating anyways. I drive too much, eat too much meat, don't produce enough food on my land, and have too much house for a sustainable world (approx 400 sq ft per person it was 300 per person with my wife). If I had more bodies in it I could perhaps justify using hand labour for the wood to stay alive in the winter. It's hard finding like minded crazies in this world though. I don't fly except under duress and generate over 50 percent of my electricity by solar;it used to be over 90 percent. Energy use in the house has ballooned since we had kids.  hopefully that will return to above 90 percent this fall with the new solar array. I believe people will only change their way once the poop hits the fan.Not this slow frog in a pot of water bad but really really bad.  I'm not sure if FF depletion or climate change gets us first I'll let you two fight it out.
Cheers,  David

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AGelbert

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Re: Global Warming is WITH US
« Reply #1376 on: June 24, 2018, 03:42:40 pm »
Quote
RE: That graph only goes through 2004.  What do the latest real data points look like?

BP(2018) shows production in 2004 was 81.1 Mbpd and in 2017 was 92.6 mbpd - that's a 14% increase in 13 years. (1.01% / year, after 20 years of 1.6%).  That includes fracked oil , tar sands and Natural Gas Liquids.  The split between Crude and Condensate is unknown since nobody collects the data ( ! ) so we can't tell how much is fracked.  However we do know fracking only came on stream in 2006, just in time for the Peak in Crude Only in 2005.  Fracking has never made a profit and as soon as USG/Fed stops backing the losses, the whole lot will collapse in a heap overnight, causing a major financial shock, which will bring down the Dollar and Industrial Civilisation.
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AGelbert

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Re: Global Warming is WITH US
« Reply #1377 on: June 24, 2018, 03:44:03 pm »
Quote
RE: That graph only goes through 2004.  What do the latest real data points look like? ???

BP(2018) shows production in 2004 was 81.1 Mbpd and in 2017 was 92.6 mbpd - that's a 14% increase in 13 years. (1.01% / year, after 20 years of 1.6%).  That includes fracked oil , tar sands and Natural Gas Liquids.  The split between Crude and Condensate is unknown since nobody collects the data ( ! ) so we can't tell how much is fracked.  However we do know fracking only came on stream in 2006, just in time for the Peak in Crude Only in 2005.  Fracking has never made a profit and as soon as USG/Fed stops backing the losses, the whole lot will collapse in a heap overnight, causing a major financial shock, which will bring down the Dollar and Industrial Civilisation.

Amazon, Tesla, Facebook and numerous other Industrial Civilization ventures have never made a profit either, but that doesn't stop the  TBTF Banks from buying their corporate paper with money borrowed from Da Fed.  In fact, Steve's analysis shows no industrial enterprise from the railroads to carz to planes ever made a real profit, all these industries grew on credit and eventually went BK, to then be bailed out by Da Goobermint and the debt shifted (in theory) to the tapayer.  The taxpayer of course can't afford to retire this debt either, so the total debt keeps increasing as long as the enterprises are kept running.

Since as you say they must have an endless credit line to keep running, it's unlikely Da Fed will cut off that credit because then it means not just the end of Industrial Civilization but the end of their hegemony over the world, through the credit they issue to the MIC to buy planes, drones and bombs.  There will either have to be some sort of credit lockup or the resources become unavailable no matter how much credit you issue.  Another possibility is that the resource controllers who actually still have some oil left underground they can pump up stop taking the credit in payment, aka they abandon the Dollar.  However, since they hold so much of their reserves in Dollars. this amounts to cutting off your nose to spite your face.  It's why nobody has quit on the whole system yet.  It will of course inevitably occur, but the timeline on it still remains obscure.

RE

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Re: Global Warming is WITH US
« Reply #1378 on: June 24, 2018, 03:46:52 pm »
Agelbert NOTE: K-Dog lives in Seattle, Washington.

Coal Trains have joined the oil trains going north for export.  I have seen 3 coal trains passing through Seattle in the last week.   I saw the first one only two weeks ago.  It had three engines pulling and was a mile long easy.


I do not want to criticize or disrespect anybody here who cares about their carbon footprint but when I see megatons of coal and oil leaving the country to keep the fat cat gravy train going and nobody caring I wonder what is the point of it all. 

We import, so we export.  I get that.  I also know that our fracked oil is best blended with other stock because refineries just for fracked oil don't exist.  I get that.  Stop using the stuff tomorrow and we are all dead.  I get that.  It is not a black and white issue.  I get that.  Nobody cares about changing the equations so we survive.  I don't get that.

As too how much is left I'll make the observation that the conservative element of suit wearing forked tongued devils in American have digested peak oil dogma as well as we have here but from a completely different perspective.  The point of peak oil was only ever to show that the oil supply is finite.  The M. King Hubbert classic depletion curve is from a single field with a simple development and extraction profile.  All it was ever meant to do is tell everybody, see kiddies if you eat all your candy it will be all gone. 

The world was never going to follow that simple curve and even we advocates of understanding have been distracted by the 'theory' aspect of it all, as if the ragged edge of the real depletion curve disproved something.  The ragged edge reflects real world complexity.  Humans have wars and kill each other.  Economies crash.  People want to make America great again.  These things throw more variables in the picture than a single field has and the fact that the peak is ragged does not change what remains in the ground in any way.  Yet some are quick to say peak oil is dead and the theory wrong.

Ugo Bardi has pointed out that collapse can, most likely will, resemble Seneca's cliff.  In that scenario significant oil will be in the ground but it won't be easy to get to and it won't matter because we will be in a new stone age.  Fact is if we were not fracking now we would all be fu cked.  A minor detail it seems everybody has overlooked.  We found some more borrowed time.  That is all that has happened or America would already have crashed so hard that 2008 would be looking like a summer picnic right now.

That is what we have done again.  Technology which in modern times is mostly the hundreds of ways in which we use hydrocarbons has enabled us to innovate our way out of a corner to get more hydrocarbons to use up.  The can has been kicked down the road. But it can't last.  Our ditch awaits.


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AGelbert

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Re: Global Warming is WITH US
« Reply #1379 on: June 24, 2018, 03:47:59 pm »
I do not wan't to criticize or disrespect anybody here who cares about their carbon footprint but when I see megatons of coal and oil leaving the country to keep the fat cat gravy train going and nobody caring I wonder what is the point of it all.

A few people care, like us Diners.

The point is to try and wake up a few of the slightly lower wattage bulbs out there  who might just grasp the truth if you explain it carefully, and then have some time to Prep Up!

Remember the Motto of the Diner...


"SAVE AS MANY AS YOU CAN"

RE

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