Renewable Revolution

So Mean Methane is rising at 0.52%/year.
In AR4, Methane represents 30% of Total Net Forcings, and the annual increase represents 0.15% of Total Net Forcing.

You are the mathematician, so you are the last person that should talk about some smooth linear increase in the light of the findings of the following:

The release of methane from the Arctic is in itself a major contributor to global warming as a result of polar amplification. Recent observations in the Siberian arctic show increased rates of methane release from the Arctic seabed.[4] Land-based permafrost, also in the Siberian arctic, was estimated in 2013 to release 17 million tonnes of methane per year – a significant increase on the 3.8 million tons estimated in 2006, and estimates before then of just 0.5 million tonnes.[10][11][12] This compares to around 500 million tonnes released into the atmosphere annually from all sources.[10]

Shakhova et al. (2008) estimate that not less than 1,400 gigatonnes (Gt) of carbon is presently locked up as methane and methane hydrates under the Arctic submarine permafrost, and 5–10% of that area is subject to puncturing by open taliks. They conclude that "release of up to 50 Gt of predicted amount of hydrate storage [is] highly possible for abrupt release at any time". That would increase the methane content of the planet's atmosphere by a factor of twelve.[13]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic_methane_emissions

Palloy, when that is triggered (all which does not have BEANS to do with the IPCC model CH4 increase predictions BECAUSE none of that massive amount of CH4 is from burning fossil fuels!), an increase by a factor of TWELVE (a MASSIVE AMOUNT GREATER than IPCC.AR4 projections) is not a pretty picture, now is it?

Watch this short video by David Wasdell. I know you think he is bonkers, which is necessary for you to cling to your "peak oil will save us" meme, but he is spot on about the TRUE climate sensitivity that you do not want to accept is a real and present existential threat to mankind NOW, not in 20 or 30 years. Your radiative forcing math is way too low, period.

 
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Nick Breeze

Published on Jan 17, 2014