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Author Topic: Global Warming is WITH US  (Read 27914 times)

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AGelbert

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    • Agelbert Truth AND Consequences
Re: Global Warming is WITH US
« Reply #1185 on: December 15, 2017, 11:29:07 pm »
A number of outright mistakes in your history of RCP-2.6.  ::)

It WAS a peak-and-decline scenario when it was originally called RCP-3PD, but later it was converted to a "viable" scenario that achieved a temperature increase of less than 2C.  This include a HUGE increase in renewable energy - enough to keep the total energy output increasing at 3% p.a.  The embedded energy in creating this much renewable energy infrastructure was NOT included, because that would have made the total energy fall.  (There is NO SOLUTION that allows total energy to keep increasing.)

The models were calibrated by running them using data up to 1984 and demonstrating that they predicted the same values as the REAL 1984-2014 data.  Therefore they DO contain all the factors that the models contain, including the CO2 lag effect. The lag isn't just 40 years, it depends on the assumptions and under RCP-2.6 it is 32 years. The following decline is very slow, but the peak temperature is +1.6C.


Quote
AG: "Just use that polluting fuel all you want. It's gonna run out soon, real, real soon and it will all work out. "  

Van Vuuren doesn't exactly put it that way.  It is ME and other Peakists that says it's gonna run out real soon and then we will have kept temperature rise to below +1.6C, BUT WE WILL HAVE AN EVEN WORSE PROBLEM ON OUR HANDS - COLLAPSE.

It is this bind that our leaders have to face, and there is NOTHING they can do about it, except plan to have us as weak (politically) as possible so that we won't be able to hang them from the nearest lamppost. So concentrate on the right problem, Collapse, not Climate Change.

RCP-2.6 says the quantity of natural gas being produced in 2070 will be three times the current level.  Do you believe that?  Imagine how much gas RCP-8.5 implies.


ALL the scenarios except the RCP 8.5 are "mitigation" scenarios. This "peak and decline" issue is contingent on technology for carbon sequestration THAT HASN'T BEEN INVENTED! The most advanced CO2 scrubbing technology is in nuclear submarines and they CANNOT get it below 5,000 PPM of CO2! They have to surface when it gets to 8,000 PPM (the scrubbing technology cannot keep up) after several months. The "mitigation" scenarios, including the RCP 2.6, ASS-U-ME carbon sequestration technology (the space aliens will give us, I guess  ::)) that NOBODY HAS INVENTED YET to get the radiative forcings down. Don't tell me you did not know that! Yeah, even the RCP 6.0 (QUOTE ... application of a range of technologies and strategies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions Fujino et al. 2006; Hijioka et al. 2008 UNQUOTE) ASS-U-MES that magical thinking!

Who said anything  about ENERGY INCREASING? YOU are the one that won't let that go. I am the one trying to get you to understand that the polluting particles in our atmosphere WILL PRODUCE the radiative forcings that will NEVER descend anywhere near 2.6 even with ZERO production of fossil fuels. You just cannot accept that. Yet, any climate scientist will be happy to explain it to you.

Putin and Trump sure as hell believe they will keep producing oil and gas willy nilly! But you still cannot wrap your head around the fact that radiative forcings will continue to INCREASE for 40 years (at least) even after production of fossil fuels decreases to zip. NO, the LAG is NOT properly accounted for. There are SEVERAL real world conditions ABSENT from ALL the models. You just cannot accept what a self reinforcing global warming feedback loop (i.e. "postive") is AND that there are well over THIRTY of them now in play the models DO NOT account for. And NO, that isn't just from Guy McPherson or Sam Carana, your favorite punching bags; eminent glaciologists have already made that clear.

Then there is the permafrost you don't realize will add one hell of lot more radiative forcings even after, to use your fascinating term, the lack "profitable" exploration for and extraction of fossil fuels makes them "too expensive" and they go the way of the dodo bird around the time your assumed collapse scenario happens


Sorry Palloy, your scenario has more logical holes in it than a piece of swiss cheese.

Give it a rest Palloy. You simply do not know what you are talking about. The fact is that they are going to SOON have to label the "Business as Usual" scenario the RCP 9.0  (radiative forcing of 9.0 W/m2 OR MORE for at least 40 years!) or higher because of the LATEST radiative forcings in 2017. That's right, Einstein, global greenhouse gas emissions are INCREASING (see my note after the Latin America Renewable Energy post below). Your "collapse will solve the emissions and warming" magical thinking is irrational. Clinging to it is delusional. Stop it. Join the real world of biosphere math and stop wishing reality away with a convenient collapse.

Have a nice day.       


Leges         Sine    Moribus     Vanae   
Faith,
if it has not works, is dead, being alone.

 

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