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Author Topic: Global Warming is WITH US  (Read 27913 times)

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AGelbert

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    • Agelbert Truth AND Consequences
Re: Global Warming is WITH US
« Reply #1170 on: December 15, 2017, 12:39:13 am »
Why the RCP 2.6 scenario is wishful thinking

THIS is what the RCP 2.6 is all about:

QUOTE:

RCP2.6 was developed by the IMAGE modeling team of the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency.

The emission pathway is representative of scenarios in the literature that lead to very low greenhouse gas concentration levels.    ;) It  is a “peak-and-decline”  scenario; its radiative forcing level first reaches a value of around 3.1 W/m2  by mid-century, and returns to 2.6 W/m2  by 2100.

In order to reach such radiative forcing levels, greenhouse gas emissions (and indirectly emissions of air pollutants) are reduced substantially, over time (Van Vuuren et al. 2007a). (Characteristics quoted from van Vuuren et.al. 2011)

UNQUOTE

https://www.skepticalscience.com/rcp.php?t=3

Agelbert Explanation: First of all the emissions have not shown ANY tendency to slow down yet. But let us say that wishful thinkers (or perhaps fossil fuel industry propgandist status quo defending liars and crooks   ) are counting on a collapse to get the radiative forcings down to the RCP 2.6 level, INSTEAD OF ABOVE THE RCP 8.5 scenario, as they are NOW tracking.

Let us say that on January 1, 2018, we stop all polluting emissions of fossil fuels. Yeah, I know, RIDICULOUS. But here is where you are missing the pitch that the defenders of RCP 2.6 heaven are using. As long as the EVENT when fossil fuels use SLOWS DOWN is somewhere in the future (i.e. 2050) the BASTARDS that push this BALONEY can contiue urging us to burn fossil fuels with the CON that the radiative forcings are going to go WAY DOWN in 2050 and make everything better. That is BULLSHIT.

WHY? Because the radiative forcings DO NOT GO DOWN, as projected in RCP 2.6, just because emissions slow down! How can that be? It IS because CO2 doesn't just "go away" when you stop pumping more of it in to the atmosphere. It STAYS there for CENTURIES.

The whole CON here is the incredibly mendacious claim that there is a DIRECT cause and effect climate warming relationship to emissions. The FACT is that there is about a 40 year LAG. But the defenders of the RCP 2.6 do not want to talk about that.

For those who still cannot wrap their "collapse solves the problem" head around this inconvenient 40 year lag reality, that means that in 2017 plus 40 years - 2057 (if we come to a dead STOP on January 1, 2018 - you know that ain't gonna happen!), the radiative forcings we have TODAY, which are ABOVE RCP 8.5 (the number is related to the W/m2 of radiative forcings) will THEN begin to descend.

Oh, but there is MORE that those fine "honest"  fellows like Palloy do not want to discuss. You see, The radiative forcing scenarios are IRRELEVANT when a runaway greenhouse (several self reinforcing warming loops absent ANY added emissions) is in progress. THAT is where we are already at.

Consequently, for the two reasons I just stated, there is not a snowball's chance in hell that we will EVER get to a radiaitve forcings level of between 3.1 and 2.6 W/m2 by 2100. Our radiative forcings NOW are ABOVE 8.5 W/m2 and they ARE NOT going to go below that for at least 40 years, no mattter what the Palloys of this world otherwise mendaciously claim.

So why to the bullshitters pushing the RCP 2.6 scenario persist? BECAUSE they IGNORE the CO2 already in the atmosphere AND the 40 year lag while they give ALL THEIR ATTENTION (and they want YOU to look NOWHERE ELSE) at the amount of ENERGY generated by fossil fuels each year. That is just plain BONKERS. The other two factors are even MORE important at this stage of the runaway greenhouse!

But, as I said, the method in that madness is to make you and I believe the CON that collapse is going to make everything just dandy. Don't worry about a thing   . Just use that polluting fuel all you want. It's gonna run out soon, real, real soon and it will all work out.

Don't swallow the con. All these fossil fueler crooks and liars want is to keep you USING fossil fuels for profit over planet! Stop using them wherever you can. The only good Fossil fuel corporation is a BANKRUPT fossil fuel corporation.


Leges         Sine    Moribus     Vanae   
Faith,
if it has not works, is dead, being alone.

 

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