VUW professor warns of “remarkable” increase in global warming
November 12, 2017
Wellington.ScoopProfessor James Renwick of the School of Geography, Environment and Earth Sciences at Victoria University of Wellington, said this week that the recent rate of change of warming globally has been really remarkable.
He was commenting on a statement from the World Meteorological Organisation which said 2017 is set to be in the top three hottest years on record, with record-breaking extreme weather.
“We now appear to be well and truly through the 1 degree of warming (compared to pre-industrial) barrier, heading for 2 degrees,” said Professor Renwick. “What’s really striking is that this year is coming in as probably
the second warmest year on record, after the big El Niño-influenced 2016. The fact that we have such warmth this year without an El Niño, and in fact with a slightly cooling La Niña developing in the Tropical Pacific, tells me that the background warming trend (from greenhouse gas increase) is really becoming apparent.
“The main way we experience climate change is through extreme events, and this year has seen extraordinary extremes around the world. From record floods and fires in North America to record monsoon rains in Bangladesh and India, to heatwaves in many parts of the globe, 2017 has already been exceptional.
“Here in New Zealand, we have seen several major flood events, including Edgecumbe in April and the eastern South Island from Dunedin to Christchurch in July. While the analysis has yet to be done, it is very likely that these events have a climate change ‘fingerprint’, as a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, making heavy rain events more frequent. Sea levels continue to rise, and the latest science shows that we may see considerably more than 1 metre this century, with many more metres to come, unless we cap greenhouse gas emissions urgently.
“The Bonn ‘COP23’ meeting is on this week and now is the time for countries to demonstrate action on climate change. To stay below the 2 degree Paris limit, the world economy needs to be carbon-free within 50 years. A huge ask, but the costs of inaction or failure are almost incalculable. Rather than a burden, this is a real opportunity for government and business to lead the way into the green economy.”
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