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Author Topic: 🚩 Global Climate Chaos ☠️  (Read 117164 times)

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AGelbert

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Re: 🚩 Global Climate Chaos ☠️
« Reply #1080 on: October 03, 2017, 05:50:48 pm »
Climat Lab Book
Open climate Science

Is the 1.5°C target still reachable?

 


SNIPPET:


Figure 2. Global mean temperature estimates of HadCRUT4 (left) and GISTEMP (right) against the CO2 concentration on a logarithmic scale with a linear fit. Pre-industrial CO2 concentrations are usually taken to be 280 ppm.

Conclusions

Reaching the 1.5 degree target agreed-upon in Paris as a desirable goal is going to be hard. Exactly how hard depends on a couple of crucial definitions and physical effects of the order of a tenth of a degree. Millar et al. have reduced these uncertainties by moving the starting point of modelling from pre-industrial to the present, taking the observed trend as given (and attributable to human influences, a point we have not discussed). However, they also use definitions of the global mean temperature rise that are not universally accepted and estimates of committed warming for zero emissions that are at odds with older (AR4) ideas that were based on constant atmospheric composition. To aid in the understanding of the results of Millar et al., we tried to highlight differences in definitions and cancellations in temperature trends after CO2 emissions would have ceased. Whatever the final way the 1.5 degree or indeed 2 degree target is defined, it will take a huge effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions fast enough to reach it.

Full detailed article with charts from peer reviewed scientific studies

http://www.climate-lab-book.ac.uk/2017/is-the-1-5c-target-still-reachable/
He that loveth father or mother more than me is not worthy of me: and he that loveth son or daughter more than me is not worthy of me. Matt 10:37

 

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