Renewable Revolution

The PLUS 2 degree C world, now locked in according to the IPCC, is BAD NEWS.

The year 2014 was the warmest year across global land and ocean surfaces since records began in 1880. The annually-averaged temperature was 0.69°C (1.24°F) above the 20th century average of 13.9°C (57.0°F), easily breaking the previous records of 2005 and 2010 by 0.04°C (0.07°F).

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201413


THAT IS, 2014 had an AVERAGE global temperature of 58.24°F = 14.58°C.

In 2015 an EL NIÑO began. EL NIÑOs always flush a LOT of heat from the oceans into the atmosphere. They can last more than just one year.

So, 2015 will top 2014. It is safe to add another 0.04°C (0.07°F) for an estimate of 2015 temperature. That will bring us to  58.31°F = 14.62°C.

If we continue to rise  0.04°C per year, we will reach the IPCC plus 2 degree C red line (NOW inevitable according to them), in about 28 years.

That is assuming we are ONLY 0.85°C above the pre-industrial baseline.

If we are at 1.00 °C above the pre-industrial baseline, as some claim is the case, we will reach plus 2.00°C of 15.62°C = 60.12 °F in about 25 years.

This, though lower than the previously set IPCC  plus 2.00°C mark of 16.49 ^oC  (IPCC, 2007), doesn't sound too bad. That sounds like we have that much time to deal with it. But that reasoning has a problem. 

All that ASSUMES a LINEAR annual temperature increase of 0.04°C.

All that IGNORES the feedback acceleration of heat reinforcing now going on. 

All that IGNORES the sink (ability to absorb CO2) degradation the oceans are undergoing which is guaranteed to increase the RATE of heat entering the atmosphere from the oceans, irrespective of any additions in CO2 input we add.

What's the big deal about a 2 degrees C increase?

The 1990 global atmospheric mean temperature is assumed to be 14.49 ^oC (Shakil, 2005; NASA, 2002; DATAWeb, 2012) which sets the 2 ^oC anomaly above which humanity will lose control of her ability to limit the effects of global warming on major climatic and environmental systems at 16.49 ^oC  (IPCC, 2007).

The major Permian extinction event temperature is 80 ^oF (26.66 ^oC) which is a temperature anomaly of  12.1766 ^oC above the 1990 global mean temperature of 14.49 ^oC (Wignall, 2009; Shakil,  2005).

Global Extinction within one Human Lifetime as a Result of a Spreading Atmospheric Arctic Methane Heat wave and Surface Firestorm