+- +-

+-User

Welcome, Guest.
Please login or register.
 
 
 
Forgot your password?

+-Stats ezBlock

Members
Total Members: 51
Latest: JUST4TheFACTS
New This Month: 0
New This Week: 0
New Today: 0
Stats
Total Posts: 14959
Total Topics: 261
Most Online Today: 38
Most Online Ever: 201
(December 08, 2019, 11:34:38 pm)
Users Online
Members: 0
Guests: 1
Total: 1

Author Topic: 🚩 Global Climate Chaos ☠️  (Read 44043 times)

0 Members and 0 Guests are viewing this topic.

AGelbert

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 31818
  • Location: Colchester, Vermont
    • Renwable Revolution
Re: 🚩 Global Climate Chaos ☠️
« Reply #1395 on: June 28, 2018, 12:39:44 pm »
Patrick T. Brown, PhD

Curriculum vitae

 CURRENT POSITION

Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford University
Postdoctoral Research Scientist (under Ken Caldeira)
EDUCATION

Duke University, Durham, North Carolina
Doctor of Philosophy, Earth and Ocean Science, 2016
San Jose State University, San Jose, California
Master of Science, Meteorology and Climate Science, 2012
University of Wisconsin – Madison, Madison, Wisconsin
Bachelor of Science, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, 2008

Quote
Tweets by ‎@PatrickTBrown31
 Patrick T. Brown, PhD Retweeted

Max Roser

@MaxCRoser
Recently @BillGates asked me which statistics we should all know if we want to understand how the world is changing.

Just now he published my answer on his personal website:https://www.gatesnotes.com/Development/Max-Roser-three-facts-everyone-should-know …


Greater future global warming (still) inferred from Earth’s recent energy budget

Posted on December 21, 2017 by ptbrown31

SNIPPET:

We recently published a paper in Nature in which we leveraged observations of the Earth’s radiative energy budget to statistically constrain 21st-century climate model projections of global warming. We found that observations of the Earth’s energy budget allow us to infer generally greater central estimates of future global warming and smaller spreads about those central estimates than the raw model simulations indicate. More background on the paper can be obtained from our blog post on the research.

Last week, Nic Lewis published a critique of our work on several blogs titled A closer look shows global warming will not be greater than we thought. We welcome scientifically-grounded critiques of our work since this is the fundamental way in which science advances. In this spirit, we would like to thank Nic Lewis for his appraisal. However, we find Lewis’ central criticisms to be lacking merit. As we elaborate on below, his arguments do not undermine the findings of the study.

Full lengthy article:

https://patricktbrown.org/2017/12/21/greater-future-global-warming-still-inferred-from-earths-recent-energy-budget/


Rob not the poor, because he is poor: neither oppress the afflicted in the gate:
For the Lord will plead their cause, and spoil the soul of those that spoiled them. Pr. 22:22-23

AGelbert

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 31818
  • Location: Colchester, Vermont
    • Renwable Revolution
Re: 🚩 Global Climate Chaos ☠️
« Reply #1396 on: June 28, 2018, 03:32:33 pm »
CO2 traps heat by continually absorbing and releasing it until it finally gets to space.  The effect can be measured and a mathematical model could be built to show average warming to high accuracy.  On the earth other variables such as cloud cover will affect how warming manifests locally.  Anybody who would actually do the work would be a fool and likely assassinated so instead mountains of obfuscation hides a truth that could easily be modeled by a second order differential equation.

An analog computer from the fifties could do it.


The physics behind the problem have been known for a 100 years.  All some mathematicians have to do is make a model of the atmosphere and 'illuminate' it with a stimulus which models solar radiation inputs.  In an analog computer that would modeled by a series of voltages.  Several voltages would account for different frequencies of solar radiation.  A fixed percentage of solar radiation from each band is turned into heat by a resistive divider.  The heat signals are summed together and passed up thorough the atmosphere simulation.

Heat is continually caught and released as it travels through the atmosphere but eventually finds its way into space.  The more it bounces around before it gets a clear shot off the planet determines how much the atmosphere warms.  The method described produces a graph of retained heat as a function of CO2 concentration.  This graph of values could then be used in weather predictors to see what happens. 

A Monte Carlo analysis of predictions could produce a series of stepwise approximations to determine a new steady state.   This would allow us to know how bad thermogeddon will be.

https://barringtonstewart.wordpress.com/thermogeddon-when-the-earth-gets-too-hot-for-humans/

Parts of the Earth could start to become uninhabitable within a century. Surely it cannot be true?

Belong caught in trivia is the game 'they' want you to play because that cultivates doubt.  Yesterday's political production of fear has run its course.  Now a switch is being made to emphasize doubt until fear regains potency.  Doubt is divide and conquer so don't play! 

Or we can all pretend the problem is really complicated and have nothing to do with it on a personal level.  We can all talk **** about it if we all do that.  That being the easiest thing to do will be the way it rolls.

In my dreams I see a club of nerds and one of them has added a methane gas model to simulate the effect of arctic methane release.  He is going to release it into the model both slowly and all at once to see if there is a difference at Tuesdays meeting.  The final steady state being the same he won't see any once things settle down.  That will be true for the earth as well though for humans it makes a lot of difference it thermogeddon comes on quickly or slowly.

Doing such a simulation would be far too useful.  Consequently it must never be done!



Let's talk about what is applicable to this debate. I appreciate the fact that you are objective enough to not point out my frequent spelling errors. Anyone that does that, instead of arguing the issues, is deliberately creating an Ad Hominum distraction.

Since you are not into disingenuos distractions, I will debate the CO2 issue with you briefly.

As you know, CO2 is a tri-atomic molecule. Tri-atomic molecules (e.g. H2O), due to their covalent bond nature (varying electronegativity in the molecular electron cloud topography) to absorb energy in some frequencies in the Infrared Band.

Quote
CO2 and other molecules with a similar structure (e.g. O3, H2O) insulate the earth. This greenhouse effect keeps the earth’s surface temperature at a habitable level of about 14 °C (57°F) instead of the temperature -19 °C (-2.2 °F) which it would have without the atmosphere absorbing the radiated IR. Thus, the greenhouse accounts for approximately a
33°C (59°F) warming (Le Treut et al., 2007). By trapping energy, the greenhouse heats the earth and its atmosphere by raising the radiative equilibrium.

http://jvarekamp.web.wesleyan.edu/public_htmlA/public_htmlA/CO2/FP-1.pdf

Your statement, "CO2 traps heat by continually absorbing and releasing it until it finally gets to space." omits 
a very import frequency changing aspect of CO2 gas. It absorbs energy in higher bands and emits energy at a much lower IR frequency. That heat energy, due to being of such a low frequency, cannot ever get into space. That is why we have such a huge global Warming problem with GHG pollution from the burning of hydrocarbons.

At the end of this post I will provide additonal quotes about CO2 atmospheric chemistry.

Other atmospheric variables that decrease surface heat that you mentioned, such as cloud cover, don't actually come into play when the overall average temperature of the atmosphere is figured, though they do affect surface temperatures, as global dimming caused by particulates from hydrocarbon burning pollution also do now. That is because virtually all the higher energy coming in the atmosphere, except for the very highest levels, where O3 sends some heat energy back into space (O3 at the surface sends nada back into space), has already been converted into an IR frequency without the power to get back into space. It is here.

Quote
Many people incorrectly assume that once we stop making greenhouse gas emissions, the CO2 will be drawn out of the air, the old equilibrium will be re-established and the climate of the planet will go back to the way it used to be; just like the way the acid rain problem was solved once scrubbers were put on smoke stacks, or the way lead pollution disappeared once we changed to unleaded gasoline. This misinterpretation can lead to complacency about the need to act now. In fact, global warming is, on human timescales, here forever. The truth is that the damage we have done—and continue to do—to the climate system cannot be undone.

And it is here for centuries, not a decade or so. The above quote and the following one, from a 2013 well referenced article, explains:

Quote
Since the Industrial Revolution, CO2 from our burning of fossil fuels has been building up in the atmosphere. The concentration of CO2 is now approaching 400 parts per million (ppm), up from 280 ppm prior to 1800. If we were to stop all emissions immediately, the CO2 concentration would also start to decline immediately, with some of the gas continuing to be absorbed into the oceans and smaller amounts being taken up by carbon sinks on land.

According to the models of the carbon cycle, the level of CO2  (the red line in Figure 1A) would have dropped to about 340 ppm by 2300, approximately the same level as it was in 1980. In the next 300 years, therefore, nature will have recouped the last 30 years of our emissions.


https://www.skepticalscience.com/global-warming-not-reversible-but-stoppable.html
 [/size]

As dire as the above quotes sound, the article is actually overly optimistic. As of 2013, it was believed that, IF we stopped TOTALLY any and all human industrial hydrocarbon burning caused addition of CO2 to the atmoshere, the temperature would remain where it was, due to natural processes that absorb CO2.

As of 2017, scientists like Dr. Brown (and others) have made clear that the heat in the Global Warming pipeline has been grossly underestimated.

Also, even if the "Collapse from ZERO availability of cheap hydrocarbons to burn will save us" meme was true, no IPCC scenario addresses that. They ALL count on a certain amount of hydrocarbons to burn. The rosy scenarios count on technology for capturing and sequestering CO2 that, as the International Space Station evidences, cannot get the ppm of CO2 back to 280 ppm. The best they can do in nuclear submarines and space is about 4,000 ppm CO2. Astronauts have headache issues. Ya don't say? The Planet's Biosphere is starting to have them too, to put it mildly.

Even the RCP 8.5 "business as Usual" scenario is too conservative, though RCP 8.5 (that 8.5 means radiative forcing in W/m2) is, according to the Brown and Caldeira peer reviewed paper published in Nature, the one that best fits empirical observations.

There is no way in God's good Earth that this planet's increasingly over-heated atmosphere is going to recover for at least 300 years, even if we had stopped buring hydrocarbons as of 2013. It is now 2018. It is now a lot worse. Three hundred years is a long time, K-Dog.

More technical stuff on Carbon Dioxide Gas:

Quote
Much attention has been given to the CO2 absorption band at 15 microns because this absorption peak has high absorptivity placed in the far-IR region, and the paramitization of its effects have been comparably easy to quantify (Fomichev et al., 1993; Fomichev & Turner, 1998; Kiehl & Briegleb, 1991).

Carbon dioxide, though, also absorbs radiation in near-IR (NIR) bands between 1.05-4.3 µm. When a CO2 molecule absorbs NIR radiation it is excited to the v3 (anti-symmetric) mode. Using the more realistic model of non-local thermodynamic equilibrium (non-LTE), the energy is redistributed by emission in the NIR bands, and converted into thermal energy by colliding with other molecules, or de-excited to the v2 (bending) mode. The v2 energy is either emitted as a photon of lower frequency or it is converted to thermal energy by colliding with other molecules (Figure 3).

In lower altitudes where pressure is higher, more energy is converted to thermal energy due to more frequent collisions with other molecules such as N2. (López-Puertas & López-Valverde, 1990; Fomichev et al., 2004;
Ogibalov & Fomichev, 2003)

Quote
There are three general vibrations for a CO2 molecule:

a symmetric mode,
 
a bending mode,

and an asymmetric mode (Figure 1).

Each mode is able to absorb certain bands of wavelengths, with the bending mode absorbing longer wavelengths (667 cm-1) and the asymmetric absorbing shorter wavelengths, 2349 cm-1 (Figure 2). (Kverno)

Ultimately, the energy from the photon has two pathways.

It can either be converted into thermal energy by the conversion of the internal kinetic energy of the CO2 molecule to the kinetic energy of a different, inert molecule such as N2. Or the molecule can reemit a photon at a lower frequency.

CO2 and other molecules with a similar structure (e.g. O3, H2O) insulate the earth.

http://jvarekamp.web.wesleyan.edu/public_htmlA/public_htmlA/CO2/FP-1.pdf

Rob not the poor, because he is poor: neither oppress the afflicted in the gate:
For the Lord will plead their cause, and spoil the soul of those that spoiled them. Pr. 22:22-23

AGelbert

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 31818
  • Location: Colchester, Vermont
    • Renwable Revolution
Re: 🚩 Global Climate Chaos ☠️
« Reply #1397 on: June 28, 2018, 03:39:08 pm »
So, why ain't I upper middle class or rich? The REASON I am not rolling in the doe is not something I wish to discuss, but my intelligence is not the reason I am not upper middle class.

Anybody who's been around the block knows damn well that affluence is not a function of intelligence. Sometimes I think it's a major impediment. Not that affluence was ever your goal (I know it wasn't).

Affluenza is not my disease either, although some people seem to think so. Actually, my goal is simply to prosper in the coming hard times and hopefully help my kids and grandkids (hope springs eternal). I hope for the best and don't at all expect it. Like GO, I've been poor. I can do poor if I need to, and I'm not expecting that I won't need to, at some point.

I never expected anybody to help me in life. But several people did, and I give them a lot of thanks, even though most of them are long gone now. I've always been lucky.

Karma of Luck. Dharma of Hard Work. I don't think it's an accident that our little Diner group is here, watching the world end.

I don't believe in coincidences. Where some people see nothing but randomness, I see elegant patterns. I don't always understand them.

Thank you. I too do not believe in coincidences.

Eddie, I appeal to you, a person who survived the gruelling mess of 23 plus credit hours of college punishment, to carefully read what Dr. Brown has said. If you are unfamiliar with some term just please look it up.

That's what I did with some of the terms in the article until I figured out exactly where the clever scientist trying undermine Brown's paper was coming from.

The whole point, which I have tried to make for YEARS on this forum, to moslty deaf ears, is that the IPCC RCP 8.5 is the closest one to reality, even if it is too conservative. I held this view long before Dr. Brown did, but not have the credentials or the scientific tools to make my case, I would post items from those who did.

RCP 8.5 is ANATHEMA to the fossil fuel industry and the denier shills they fund BECAUSE it forces TPTB to DO something about Global Warming. So, I understand why all shills, like the scientist Lewis, go ballistic every time RCP 8.5 is presented, in a peer reviewed paper, as the best fit.
Rob not the poor, because he is poor: neither oppress the afflicted in the gate:
For the Lord will plead their cause, and spoil the soul of those that spoiled them. Pr. 22:22-23

AGelbert

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 31818
  • Location: Colchester, Vermont
    • Renwable Revolution
Re: 🚩 Global Climate Chaos ☠️
« Reply #1398 on: June 28, 2018, 03:42:25 pm »
I fully expect that human created CO2 will kill our precious blue marble. I see no other reasonable expectation. I don't have to read Dr. Brown to get that. I can see that there is no chance for voluntarily powering down.

I do wonder if we will get a chance to see how Climate Change might be affected by a few years of Nuclear Winter. That's the only thing humans might actually do that would affect the outcome. Not much of a trade-off, I know.

I only wanted you to thoroughly absorb the nitty gritty from Dr. Brown so you can laugh in anybody's face that claims any other IPCC scenario besides RCP 8.5 is "more realistic".

As to what humans will do, that is an interesting question. We know what the elite plan to do. They plan to throw any life form, human or otherwise, under the profit over planet bus. The "creep, creep, creep" of Global Warming is not something they want to think about. Of course Global Warming will eat the elite's lunch AFTER most of us are long gone. I guess being the last group of assholes standing is all the Darwinian Justification they need to continue their stupid profit over planet modus operandi.

You know MKING and I went round and round. ;D However, as you demontrated in your discussions with him, nobody can doubt that MKING is a knowledgable person in regard to the availability of hydrocarbon sources on this planet. He is, after, a Geochemist. He may lie about lots of stuff and psuh happy talk that ignores the pollution issue 24/7, but I always believed, and said so, that he was RIGHT about the fact that we aren't gonna run out of hydrocarbons any time soon.

Here is an old quote from him. He was trying to cheer me up, as strange as that sounds. Of course he was also taking his book, but I continue to believe that Fossil Fueler is right about how much hydrocarbons we can access to burn for well over 50 years.

MKing said,
Quote
You are on the right track agelbert, don't give up yet. Obviously you look around and see everything you've written extensively on, while the power of fossil fuels might get you down occasionally, buck up! They can certainly duke it out for decades, maybe even a century or two, but at the end of the day it is a finite world, and there is only one choice. Gradually increasing scarcity will affect price, people reacting to this economic stimuli will drive substitution and conservation, and one day a few generations from now Johnny will laugh at old granddad for offering him a ride in that antique classic, a 2014 Corvette. Sorry Pops, he will say, but my carbon fiber 1200# with D/C motors in each wheel hub and fully charged just 20 minutes ago ride makes that heap of junk look like a Model T, fit only for senior citizens with poor reflexes or antique collectors. And jesus Pops, it SMELLS and makes all that NOISE.

Might not happen in your lifetime Agelbert, or mine, but the future is already here, oil is already obsolete, and the winds of change aren't just turning windmill blades in southern Colorado nowadays.

Well,  I agree on your last statement. It will definitely NOT happen within the next 50 years. I am a realist, as much as I understand the math and physics, I also understand the power politics. Big oil will transition ONLY when they are assured continued control of the centralized energy spigot

There is a way to do that with renewable energy. As a matter of fact, it dovetails EXACTLY with something big oil might be VERY interested in pushing simply because they will continue to have control through a centralized source of energy with such a gigantic concentration of energy in a small footprint that, get this, it has more energy than a nuclear power plant.

The ONLY energy corporations in a PERFECT position to tap this massive energy gold mine (lots of free minerals without open pit mining as well!) are the Oil corporations because you need a massive "former" (lol!) Sea going oil platform to position the equipment and tap the energy. Exxon Mobile, if it hogs the hydrothermal vent energy gold mine will be even richer than it already is. And that means more fascism, MKing. I wish it didn't.

But anyway, it doesn't look like energy is going to be lacking anytime soon, whether we go extinct from pollution along the way or not.

Enjoy this video. It's not pie in the sky; Big oil has the pipes and knowhow to lay them to collect this energy with the SAME steam turbines (400C to 600C) that they use in nuclear power plants to generate electricity and cable it to shore. Big oil has lots of rigs that float or are anchored to the sea bed. In short, THEY have the lead on this bonanza.

Listen to the stats. It's forking mind boggling. 20 MILLION households powered from ONE hydrothermal tap!

All that deep ocean drilling knowhow they have developed can now be put to use. Sure, the corrosive crap that comes up from these hydrothermal vents may have every heavy metal contaminant in the world BUT they might have rare earths and other mineral goodies too. It might be a double grand slam for big oil
.


But thanks for the pep talk, anyway. 

Rob not the poor, because he is poor: neither oppress the afflicted in the gate:
For the Lord will plead their cause, and spoil the soul of those that spoiled them. Pr. 22:22-23

AGelbert

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 31818
  • Location: Colchester, Vermont
    • Renwable Revolution
Rob not the poor, because he is poor: neither oppress the afflicted in the gate:
For the Lord will plead their cause, and spoil the soul of those that spoiled them. Pr. 22:22-23

AGelbert

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 31818
  • Location: Colchester, Vermont
    • Renwable Revolution
Re: 🚩 Global Climate Chaos ☠️
« Reply #1400 on: June 29, 2018, 03:11:28 pm »


Denver Matches All-Time High of 105°F 🚩; Heat 🔥, Pollution Spread East This Weekend 😓

Bob Henson  ·  June 29, 2018, 11:06 AM EDT


Above: This photo provided by the Department of Homeland Security Emergency Management shows a wildfire burning near Forbes Park in southern Colorado, Thursday, June 28, 2018. Hot, dry and windy weather has raised the fire danger across much of Colorado as well as Utah and parts of Arizona and Nevada. (DHSEM via AP).

June will segue into July this weekend with much of the central and eastern U.S. enduring a blistering, dangerous heat wave that could extend into the July 4 holiday in some areas. Excessive heat warnings were already in place Friday morning for parts of 11 states from Kansas to Michigan, and heat advisories for the upcoming onslaught extended all the way to Vermont.

Ample low-level moisture—perhaps boosted by “corn sweat”—will add to the misery of the high temperatures in many locations. The heat index, a measure of the combined effects of heat and humidity, was predicted to soar as high as 120°F on Friday and Saturday across parts of northern Illinois as dew point temperatures approach 80°F. The heat index could be in the 105-110°F range in the New York City area from Sunday into Tuesday.

All-time record highs 🚩 matched or toppled from Colorado to Scotland 😨

The dome of heat building into the Northeast U.S. gripped the Rockies on Thursday. Denver’s high of 105°F on Thursday matched its all-time high in data going back to 1872. The other dates that saw 105°F in Denver were June 25 and 26, 2012; July 20, 2005; and Aug. 8, 1878. Two other nearby cities set daily records that came within 1°F of their all-time highs: Colorado Springs, CO (100°F) and Cheyenne, WY (99°F). Amid the intense heat, a wildfire in the Sangre de Cristo range of southern Colorado surged to envelop more than 14,000 acres by Friday morning, closing a major travel route (U.S. Highway 160).

All-time heat records will be a bit less likely across the central and eastern U.S., but many daily record highs and record-warm minimums can be expected. Triple-digit highs aren’t out of the question by Sunday in upstate New York, where such readings are very uncommon. The last time Albany, NY, got up to 100°F was on Sept. 3, 1953.

Parts of Europe are also suffering through an intense early-summer heat wave, especially the United Kingdom. Thursday was the first day since 2013 that all four U.K. countries (England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland) saw a temperature of at least 30°C (86°F). The airport observing site at Scotland’s largest city, Glasgow, notched the city’s highest official temperature ever recorded Thursday: 31.9°C (89.4°F). It was so hot that a membrane on the roof of the Glasgow Science Centre—designed to be “weatherproof”—began to melt. The capital of Northern Ireland, Belfast, also broke its all-time high on Thursday at the airport observing site, with a high of 29.5°C (85.1°F) beating 29.4°C (84.9°F) from July 10, 1934. In western Ireland, Shannon set its all-time high with 32.0°C (89.6°F). According to weather records expert Maximiliano Herrera, the reading at Shannon is the hottest temperature recorded anywhere in Ireland since 1976.

Extremely dry conditions have paved the way for the heat across northwest Europe. The Netherlands are expecting their driest June on record, with the De Bilt weather station now at a record-low June rainfall total of 12.1 mm (0.48”). England’s “home counties” surrounding London are on track to tie June 1925 as their driest on record; they’ve averaged just 3.3 mm (0.13”) for the month so far—about 6% of normal. Near Manchester, an unprecedented burst of moorland fires is ravaging the normally moist peat-bog countryside.


Moorland fire near Manchester, England, 6/28/2018

Figure 1. Firefighters tackle the wildfire on Saddleworth Moor, England that continued to spread on Thursday, June 28, 2018, after the blaze was declared a major incident by Greater Manchester Police. Image credit: Danny Lawson/PA Images via Getty Images.

Heat 🌡️ is one of the most dangerous 🚩 weather hazards ☠️

It’s estimated by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that 150 to 300 people are killed in the U.S. each year directly by heat, with heat contributing to hundreds more deaths in some years. The worst year of the 21st century for U.S. heat deaths was 2006, with 2012 a close runner-up. Air pollution during heat waves can be just as dangerous as the heat itself (see below).

For those without air conditioning, the most dangerous set-up is a multi-day stretch of hot afternoons combined with very high overnight lows that keep interior spaces (and people) from cooling off. Fortunately, the U.S. has made great strides in heat awareness and heat safety over the 20 years since the horrific 1996 heat wave in Chicago that led to more than 700 deaths. For example, neighborhood cooling centers are now common in larger Midwest and Northeast cities, and media are paying more attention to heat risks.


AQI Forecast

Figure 2. Predicted air quality index (AQI) for Friday, June 29, 2018. Regions colored in orange are expected to see ozone levels in excess of the federal standard, reaching the “Unhealthy For Sensitive Groups” range. Image credit: U.S. EPA.
Dangerous ozone pollution event underway

This week’s heat wave is bringing the worst ozone air pollution thus far this year to much of the Midwest and Northeast United States. An Ozone Action Day was declared for 24 U.S. cities for Friday, including Cincinnati, Detroit, Dayton, Denver, Indianapolis, Louisville, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, St. Louis, and Salt Lake City. On Saturday, Ozone Action Days are up for 18 cities, mostly in New Jersey and Utah. Ground level ozone, which has been blamed for approximately 12,000 premature deaths per year in the U.S. between 2010 and 2016, is created from chemical reactions between volatile organic carbon (VOC) compounds and nitrogen oxides in the presence of sunlight. The chemical reactions that create ozone happen faster at high temperatures, and the current heat wave can be expected to cause one of the deadliest ozone pollution events of 2018. Expect to see many areas with ozone pollution topping out in the “Unhealthy For Sensitive Groups” (orange) range on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. At this level of pollution, people who are sensitive to air pollution can see negative heath effects, though the general public is not likely to be affected. If pollution levels hit the “Unhealthy” (red) range, people who are sensitive to air pollution are at increased risk of stroke, heart attack and breathing problems, and even healthy people may experience discomfort. On an Ozone Action Day, you are encouraged to:

• Conserve electricity and set your air conditioner at a higher temperature.

• Choose a cleaner commute—share a ride to work or use public transportation. Bicycle or walk to errands when possible.

• Refuel cars and trucks after dusk.

• Combine errands and reduce trips.

• Limit engine idling.

• Use household, workshop,and garden chemicals in ways that keep evaporation to a minimum, or try to delay using them when poor air quality is forecast.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Denver-Matches-All-Time-High-105F-Heat-Spreads-East-Weekend

Agelbert NOTE: I will add a recommendation for those who live in latitudes like that of Vermont. The water is always relatively cold. If you are suffering from heat because of a power blackout, which often happens in northern country when the frozen chosen go nuts turning on their air conditioners, go to the shower and put your head under it for a minute or so every half hour. Lay on the floor and read a book or concentrate on ice cubes. DO NOT open the refrigerator or freezer for ANY reason during daylight hours.

If you follow this advice from a VERY frugal fellow  ;D, No matter how hot it gets, you will not die of heat prostration.

Rob not the poor, because he is poor: neither oppress the afflicted in the gate:
For the Lord will plead their cause, and spoil the soul of those that spoiled them. Pr. 22:22-23

AGelbert

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 31818
  • Location: Colchester, Vermont
    • Renwable Revolution
Re: 🚩 Global Climate Chaos ☠️
« Reply #1401 on: June 29, 2018, 09:07:23 pm »
Can 'We' Save 'Us' from Our Own Greed and Stupidity?


UPFSI

Published on Jun 10, 2018

Here's an acerbic sound bite with Dr. Peter Wadhams on humanity's greed and stupidity ranging from SUVs (Stupid Urban Vehicles) to the idiocy of politicians who won't take the steps to save humanity because they think it will cost too much and they might lose some votes.

We are not as clever a species as we think we are. After all, how can we save ourselves if there's no profit in it? Simply mind-boggling discussion you may want to watch twice. 

Do share it around the world. And help us translate subtitles this and other videos for other languages.


Rob not the poor, because he is poor: neither oppress the afflicted in the gate:
For the Lord will plead their cause, and spoil the soul of those that spoiled them. Pr. 22:22-23

AGelbert

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 31818
  • Location: Colchester, Vermont
    • Renwable Revolution
Re: 🚩 Global Climate Chaos ☠️
« Reply #1402 on: June 30, 2018, 10:01:11 pm »
Climate Change: Heading For Extinction - Robin Boardman

Fossil Free Bristol

Published on Jun 5, 2018


Agelbert NOTE: Learn how depraved humans can get when there isn't enough food. The historical example of extremely depraved German treatment of Russian soldier prisoners during WWII is discussed.  :(

Rob not the poor, because he is poor: neither oppress the afflicted in the gate:
For the Lord will plead their cause, and spoil the soul of those that spoiled them. Pr. 22:22-23

AGelbert

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 31818
  • Location: Colchester, Vermont
    • Renwable Revolution
Re: 🚩 Global Climate Chaos ☠️
« Reply #1403 on: July 02, 2018, 09:43:03 pm »
Rob not the poor, because he is poor: neither oppress the afflicted in the gate:
For the Lord will plead their cause, and spoil the soul of those that spoiled them. Pr. 22:22-23

AGelbert

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 31818
  • Location: Colchester, Vermont
    • Renwable Revolution
Re: 🚩 Global Climate Chaos ☠️
« Reply #1404 on: July 03, 2018, 01:36:33 pm »
Rob not the poor, because he is poor: neither oppress the afflicted in the gate:
For the Lord will plead their cause, and spoil the soul of those that spoiled them. Pr. 22:22-23

AGelbert

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 31818
  • Location: Colchester, Vermont
    • Renwable Revolution
Re: 🚩 Global Climate Chaos ☠️
« Reply #1405 on: July 03, 2018, 05:52:56 pm »
TD ORIGINALS

JUL 02, 2018

New Atlas Traces the Scar Humans Have Inflicted on Earth

 Soil erosion at Péyiri, Burkina Faso. (Le Soleil dans la Main / Wikimedia Commons)
Earth’s human scar, the mark humankind has left upon the planet, is growing apace: three-fourths of the ice-free land areas of the globe have been in some way degraded, according to a new global survey.

And by 2050 this degradation could reach nine-tenths, unless the world’s nations take urgent action. But by that time an estimated 700 million people could have been displaced because of all the implications of this debasement of what was once rich natural landscape.

A new edition of the World Atlas of Desertification, just published by the European Commission, spells out the scale of the problem: an area almost half the size of the European Union is each year in some way damaged by erosion, overgrazing, salinisation, desiccation or human exploitation.

Although the continents most at hazard are Asia and Africa, even the temperate nations of the European Union are affected: around 8% of the land of the member states in southern, eastern and central Europe is affected by desertification.

The word itself is a catch-all term: the editors of the Atlas themselves call it a nebulous and all-encompassing concept that defies physical description. But they choose the term degradation and make their meaning clear: they are talking about soil erosion by wind and rain; they are talking about deterioration of the properties of the soil, and they are talking about the loss of natural vegetation.

In their definition, in a degraded landscape, natural ecosystems cannot supply the essential goods and services to which humans have become accustomed.

These include the supply of food, forage, fuel, building materials; fresh water for humans and their livestock, for irrigation and for sanitation; control of agricultural pests, nutrient recycling, the purification of air and water, the moderation of extreme weather, the protection of biodiversity and other benefits.

And, of course, all the challenges presented by the expansion of both human population and national economies are heightened by global warming and climate change as a consequence of the fossil fuel combustion that adds greenhouse gases to the atmosphere.

In principle, the researchers who have assembled the Atlas from prodigious quantities of satellite data have simply reinforced warnings issued earlier. Climate change has already begun to expand those arid zones defined by geographers as deserts, while drylands that now provide grazing and shelter for huge numbers are likely to become more arid as the global thermometer rises. As usual, the hardest hit will be the poorest nations.

Climate change is likely to affect rainfall patterns in ways that will affect global food production and worsen loss of natural forests, and the degradation of what would have been healthy natural grassland or wetland will in turn fuel further climate change.

Confident statement

What is new is the level of detail and confidence in the information in the new edition of the Atlas, along with extra focus on the human impact on the planet: an impact so marked that many earth scientists now use the term Anthropocene to describe the present geological epoch.

The European Commission has already charted population growth and the explosion of the cities with a new Atlas of the Human Planet.

The latest study calculates the economic cost of soil degradation and climate change as a threat to global food supplies: the two together could lead to a drop in global crop yields by about 10% by 2050.

Most of this will be in India, China and sub-Saharan Africa: in this last region, land degradation could actually halve agricultural output. And by 2050, another two billion people will have been added to the planetary population.

https://www.truthdig.com/articles/new-atlas-traces-the-scar-humans-have-inflicted-on-earth/

Rob not the poor, because he is poor: neither oppress the afflicted in the gate:
For the Lord will plead their cause, and spoil the soul of those that spoiled them. Pr. 22:22-23

AGelbert

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 31818
  • Location: Colchester, Vermont
    • Renwable Revolution
Re: 🚩 Global Climate Chaos ☠️
« Reply #1406 on: July 03, 2018, 06:17:02 pm »
World Resources Institute

by Frances Seymou - June 26, 2018

Deforestation Is Accelerating, Despite Mounting Efforts to Protect Tropical Forests. What Are We Doing Wrong?

       
Logging in Brazil. Photo by Wilson Dias/Agência Brasil

The 2017 tree cover loss numbers are in, and they’re not looking good. Despite a decade of intensifying efforts to slow tropical deforestation, last year was the second-highest on record for tree cover loss, down just slightly from 2016. The tropics lost an area of forest the size of Vietnam in just the last two years.

In addition to harming biodiversity and infringing on the rights and livelihoods of local communities, forest destruction at this scale is a catastrophe for the global climate. New science shows that forests are even more important than we thought in curbing climate change. In addition to capturing and storing carbon, forests affect wind speed, rainfall patterns and atmospheric chemistry. In short, deforestation is making the world a hotter, drier place.

In light of these high stakes, those of us in “Forestry World” who dedicate our professional lives and personal passions to saving the rainforest need to pause and reflect:  If the indicators are going in the wrong direction, are we doing something wrong?


Brick on the Accelerator, Feather on the Brake  >:(

There’s no mystery on the main reason why tropical forests are disappearing. Despite the commitments of hundreds of companies to get deforestation out of their supply chains by 2020, vast areas continue to be cleared for soy, beef, palm oil and other commodities. In the cases of soy and palm oil, global demand is artificially inflated by policies that incentivize using food as a feedstock for biofuels.  And irresponsible logging continues to set forests on a path that leads to conversion to other land uses by opening up road access and increasing vulnerability to fires.

A large portion of that logging and forest conversion is illegal, according to the laws and regulations of producer countries, yet illegality and corruption remain endemic in many forest-rich countries. And Indigenous Peoples—whose presence is associated with maintaining forest cover, yet whose land rights are often unrecognized—continue to be murdered when they attempt to protect their forests.

The situation reminds me of the many movies that feature a runaway train: The throttle of global demand for commodities has been engaged, and the brakes of law enforcement and indigenous stewardship have been disabled. The only way to prevent a disastrous train wreck is for the hero (or heroine) to get into the conductor’s seat, remove the brick on the accelerator, and hit the emergency brakes.

We actually know how to do this. We have a large body of evidence that shows what works. Brazil, for example, reduced large-scale deforestation in the Amazon by 80 percent from 2004-2012 by increasing law enforcement, expanding protected areas, recognizing indigenous territories, and applying a suite of carrots and sticks to reign in uncontrolled conversion to agriculture, even while increasing production of cattle and soy. The problem is that our current efforts to apply these tools amount to a feather on the brake compared to the brick on the accelerator.

Forests Are Collateral Damage in Major Economic and Political Events

To a certain extent, the bad news in the 2017 tree cover loss numbers reflects collateral damage from unrelated political and economic developments in forested countries. Colombia’s 46 percent increase in tree cover loss is likely linked to its recent conflict resolution, which opened up to development large areas of forest previously controlled by armed rebel forces. While the doubling of Brazil’s tree cover loss from 2015 to 2017 was in part due to unprecedented forest fires in the Amazon, the uptick is likely also attributable to a relaxation of law enforcement efforts in the midst of the country’s ongoing political turmoil and fiscal crisis. Indeed, it is striking how many of the world’s tropical forested countries have either experienced a recent change in government (Liberia, Peru), are currently in political crises (Brazil, Democratic Republic of Congo), are in the midst of elections (Colombia), or will face elections in the near future (Indonesia).

We Know the Solutions for Stopping Deforestation

This context hammers home what we already knew: No amount of international concern about tropical forests will make a difference unless it meaningfully connects to domestic constituencies in forested countries, and changes the incentives that drive deforestation.

One of the key strategies for aligning national priorities with anti-deforestation actions started a decade ago. Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation and enhancing forest carbon stocks, or REDD+, is a framework endorsed by the Paris Agreement on climate change that encourages rich countries to pay developing countries for limiting deforestation and forest degradation. Unfortunately, the volume of REDD+ funding on offer (about a billion dollars per year) remains trivial compared to the $777 billion provided since 2010 for financing agriculture and other land sector investments that put forests at risk.  This is surely one reason why domestic coalitions for change in countries participating in REDD+ have been unable to overcome competing coalitions for deforestation-as-usual.

While the prospects for immediate increases in REDD+ finance remain bleak, other strategies to strengthen domestic constituencies for reform show promise.

Brazil pioneered a system of monitoring deforestation by satellite. The public disclosure of that data was key to generating political will and the information necessary for fighting illegal clearing. Now, remote-sensing tools are helping communities and law enforcement officials around the world to detect and respond to illegal deforestation in near-real time. For example, Peru’s Ministry of Environment distributes weekly deforestation alerts to more than 800 government agencies, companies and civil society groups, which led to several prosecutions in 2017.

International cooperation on law enforcement can also create domestic incentives for forestry sector reform. In late 2016, Indonesia became the first country to receive a license to export to the European Union timber verified as legally harvested. By ensuring that its timber was harvested legally, Indonesia secured access for its forest products in a lucrative international market.

Indonesia has also witnessed the application of a new generation of transparency tools to fight deforestation. For example, in 2017, civil society groups used publicly available databases on corporate finance and governance to uncover monopolistic practices and non-compliance with plantation regulations among 15 companies in the palm oil sector. They then shared their findings with Indonesia’s Corruption Eradication Commission and other government authorities in a position to respond with policy or legal action.

Finally, there’s increased action at the sub-national level. Dozens of governors and district heads in forest-rich jurisdictions around the world have committed to low-emissions development. For example, the Brazilian State of Mato Grosso launched a “Produce, Conserve, and Include” strategy to end illegal deforestation while promoting sustainable agriculture. Some of the companies that have made anti-deforestation commitments are considering preferential sourcing of commodities from such jurisdictions as a way of both reducing risk and encouraging continued progress toward better land-use management.

Those of Us in “Forestry World” Can’t Do It Alone

There are clearly solutions out there, but they need to be scaled up and expanded to forests throughout the world. This week, more than 500 citizens of Forestry World are gathering at the Oslo Tropical Forests Forum to reflect on the last 10 years of efforts to protect forests, and chart a way forward. But we can’t do it alone.

Preliminary analysis suggests that a significant chunk of forest loss in 2017 was due to “natural” disasters of the sort expected to become more frequent and severe with climate change. Hurricane Maria flattened forests in the Caribbean, and fires burned large areas of Brazil and Indonesia over the last few years. While degradation of forests through logging and fragmentation by roads renders them less resilient to extreme weather events, there is a limit to which forest-specific interventions can be effective in the face of a changing climate. While stabilizing the global climate is contingent on saving the world’s forests, saving the forests is also contingent on stabilizing the global climate.

In addition to doubling down on the proven strategies for reducing deforestation (and allocating a fair share of climate finance toward those efforts), all countries need to up their game on climate action.

Nature is telling us this is urgent. We know what to do. Now we just have to do it.

TAGS:
deforestation, climate, forests


http://www.wri.org/blog/2018/06/deforestation-accelerating-despite-mounting-efforts-protect-tropical-forests
Rob not the poor, because he is poor: neither oppress the afflicted in the gate:
For the Lord will plead their cause, and spoil the soul of those that spoiled them. Pr. 22:22-23

AGelbert

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 31818
  • Location: Colchester, Vermont
    • Renwable Revolution
Re: 🚩 Global Climate Chaos ☠️
« Reply #1407 on: July 03, 2018, 08:29:25 pm »
The Nuts and Bolts of Arctic Methane 🚩 1


Paul Beckwith

Published on Jun 27, 2018

In this first of a series of videos on Arctic Methane, I get down to the nitty-gritty. I discuss natural and human-caused sources of methane, and how humans are even changing these natural sources with abrupt climate change. 

I highly recommend that you google “AMAP Arctic Methane” and download the comprehensive report to follow along as you watch this video and the ones to follow.

The risk of huge burps of methane in the Arctic are ever increasing from Arctic Temperature Amplification and accelerating sea ice loss.

Please support my work with a donation at http://paulbeckwith.net

The Nuts and Bolts of Arctic Methane 🚩 2


Paul Beckwith

Published on Jun 30, 2018

What are the major sources and sinks for methane gas? Are they “natural” or human caused; does “natural” even exist in our world of abrupt climate change? How does methane concentration change hourly, daily, weekly, monthly, seasonally and yearly? How does it change with latitude, elevation, and even temperature? Why does any of this matter? Believe me; if, or rather when, it comes up big time from a burst it will affect us all. This info is very important.

Please consider supporting my prolific educational video production with a donation at http://paulbeckwith.net



The Nuts and Bolts of Arctic Methane 🚩 3


Paul Beckwith

Published on Jul 3, 2018

As climate change accelerates, it is crucial to understand risks from feedbacks like methane bursts from terrestrial permafrost (think Siberian blowholes) and marine sediment clathrates (think methane “gun”). To understand these things, this video continues the Arctic Methane story. Risks increase significantly as we near an Arctic “blue ocean” event (loss of all sea-ice), which will greatly accelerate Arctic warming, since ice keeps Arctic Ocean temperatures near zero Celsius.

To get the unvarnished no-BS story on Abrupt Climate Change in videos please share and donate to my blog http://paulbeckwith.net

Rob not the poor, because he is poor: neither oppress the afflicted in the gate:
For the Lord will plead their cause, and spoil the soul of those that spoiled them. Pr. 22:22-23

AGelbert

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 31818
  • Location: Colchester, Vermont
    • Renwable Revolution
Re: 🚩 Global Climate Chaos ☠️
« Reply #1408 on: July 04, 2018, 09:12:28 pm »
 

Agelbert NOTE: Dr. Canadell tells it like it is. That is, emissions are going unsustainably UP, as in, there is NO WAY we can stop warming at 2º C above pre-industrial UNLESS we have ZERO emissions as of 2040.

He explains the gravity of the climate situation with evidence. He points out that fires are occurring in wooded areas with no history of fires.

He explains that when most known coral bleaching occurs, the cause is that corals basically starve over several weeks, but the Australian Great Barrier Reef bleaching was caused by the corals overheating to death in about ONE WEEK!.

He explains that an even more alarming event, that has not been widely publicized, occurred. That is, mangrove regions experienced the largest die-off that has ever been observed. All this is a DIRECT result of Global Warming.

Finally, this serious scientist with world class credentials makes it crystal clear that if we do not replace ALL hydrocarbon burning with Renewable Energy Technology BEFORE 2050 , 4º C above pre-industrial and above is unavoidable. He goes further to state that, by 2040, ALL developed country economies most be fully decarbonized. He admits he sees no way that can occur unless massive carbon capture and sequestration technology efforts are undertaken.

He states that it would be incredibly stupid to continue burning hydrocarbons in the face of the threat to the biosphere of an overheated climate.

For anybody here (you know who you are) that attempts to discredit or ridicule what Dr. Canadell says in the interview, I suggest you read his bio before you insert your hydrocarbon loving foot in your mouth. Please do not make a fool of yourself by trying to undermine the validity of Dr. Canadell's information.

Quote

Dr. Josep (Pep) Canadell

email pep.canadell@csiro.au

Ph.D. Biology (Terrestrial ecology)

1995 University Autonomous of Barcelona, Spain

Current Position: Executive Director Global Carbon Project and CSIRO Research Scientist

Education: B.S. Biology (Biology) 1984 University A. of Barcelona, Spain

M.S. Biology (Terrestrial ecology) 1988 University A. of Barcelona, Spain

Ph.D. Biology (Terrestrial ecology) 1995 University A. of Barcelona, Spain


Learn more about this respected scientist at the link below:

Awards top

Member of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Fourth Assessment Report) awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007.

Professional Experience

Executive Director of the Global Carbon Project (GCP), the first joint project of the Earth System Partnership (ESSP) sponsored by: the Interntional Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP), the International Human Dimension Programme (IHDP), the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), and Diversitas. For information on the GCP, please visit: www.globalcarbonproject.org.

http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/who_is_who/pep_canadell.htm

Carbon Climate Showdown

Posted on June 20, 2018, by Radio Ecoshock
 
In this week’s show I have two top level scientists. Pep Canadell the Director of the Global Carbon Project reports a big increase in greenhouse gas emissions in 2018, mostly coming from China. We talk about whether even 2 degrees C of global warming is just a dream now.

Listen to or download this Radio Ecoshock show in CD Quality (57 MB) or Lo-Fi (14 MB)

The first interview is with Pep Canadell from the Global Carbon Project. As examples, Pep told me three stories about Australia that made my hair stand up 😨 (well… the hair I have left). Two I heard of and covered, and yet his explanation carried fundamental facts about each that I did not know.

Also, he says, in the first 3 months of 2018, global carbon emissions took a serious step up, after pausing for a couple of years. (For a couple of years the increase paused, not the pollution). The reason for the new carbon spurt: growth in the Chinese economy. China emitted 27% of the globe’s greenhouse gases in the past year. The U.S. was responsible for 14%, and the EU 7%.

Quote
““Our estimates indicate that, due to higher than assumed economic growth rates, there is a greater than 35 per cent probability that year 2100 emissions concentrations will exceed those given by RCP8.5,” says Peter Christensen of the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign.”

Christensen continues: “While some claim the link between economic growth and greenhouse emissions has been broken – or ‘decoupled’ – it’s only been weakened. Carbon emissions have risen in the European Union over the past four years as economic growth has picked up, Peters points out. In 2017, EU emissions rose 1.8 per cent.”

Climate change is coming sooner and harder than expected. With alarming new research, I’ve been saying the dreaded 2 degrees C of warming is unlikely – even with geoengineering. So why are some officials still talking as though 1.5 degrees is the goal? Finally more realism is emerging – partly due to stunning new emission figures for China. Andy Pitman, director of the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, told the Sydney Morning Herald newspaper “Most climate scientists think 2 degrees to be aspirational.”

While all industrial nations have failed to slash emissions, the story from China is worse. The latest emissions figures come from satellite data, with reporting from Greenpeace and the Global Carbon Project.

The Greenpeace report says:

“Now government data indicates China’s CO2 emissions went up 4.0% on the first quarter, after a 2% increase in 2017. Calculating demand from government data on production, trade, and industry data on inventories, coal demand increased 3.5%, oil demand 4.3%, gas demand 10% while cement output fell 4.5%. This has led researchers to warn that we could see a 5% increase in emissions from China this year, the largest since 2011.”

In Canberra Australia, I reached Dr. Josep Canadell, known as “Pep”. He is the long-time Executive Director of the Global Carbon Project, and a research scientist for the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) in Australia. Pep is an author in more than 150 peer-reviewed science papers and a member of the Nobel Prize-winning 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report.

Dr. Josep “Pep” Canadell, Global Carbon Project and CISRO

There was a lot of good news coming out of China over the past few years. Mass transit there is booming along with the world’s largest solar build-up. We heard the Chinese coal plant binge was ending. I thought big hydro electric plants, like Three Gorges, would help cut coal dependence. But actual emissions measurements tell us greenhouse gas emissions from China are much worse during the first 3 months of 2018.

Dr. Canadell was also a co-author of a 2016 paper on “Estimating cropland carbon mitigation potentials in China“. There are several ways China can modify its huge agricultural system to help the climate system, but they need time and a lot of investment in training millions of farmers. For example, rice-growers can reduce the time their fields are flooded, to reduce the dangerous greenhouse gas methane.

We also discuss whether the world can stop at 2 degrees of warming, or whether we are headed to a planet 3, 4 or more degrees C hotter. In July 2011, there was a conference at the University of Melbourne, titled “Four Degrees Or More? Australia in a Hot World”. The German climate scientist Dr. John Schellnhuber gave the keynote address, which we broadcast on Radio Ecoshock. The mood then was “what if”. Now four degrees seems much more possible.

A day before this interview, I drove through a flooded out neighborhood in southern British Columbia. Everything was dragged to the street in piles. Many houses had a red tag, condemned to be torn down. Hardly anyone could get insurance. Their lives are wrecked along with their homes. Local business may never return. We see emissions accelerating. So are the repeated hits to people and communities all over the world. Do you think climate change alone could bring down the economy into a new low state?

We began by talking about a worrying burst of carbon coming from China. I worry that pretty soon the worst of nationalist voices will blame China for the extreme weather. But of course, the extreme heat and weather we are experiencing now comes from emissions from North America and Europe. The real impact of Chinese emissions in 2018 will be experienced at least 20 years from now.

Tune in the big picture on carbon in the atmosphere at globalcarbonproject.org.

JIM KOSSIN – MORE DAMAGING STORMS

My second discussion is with Jim Kossin who just published a paper in Nature about slower moving cyclones since 1950. They are slowing (think Hurricane Harvey) and the peak is moving toward the Poles. Closer to the tropics a slight there may be a slight reprieve in the odds of extreme rainfall events; further north – welcome to a new and terrible experience!

Dr. Jim Kossin, NOAA

From Texas to Taiwan slow-moving hurricanes have caused record damage. Has something changed in the way these big storms work? Four well-known climate scientists are asking “Does global warming make tropical cyclones stronger?”

Dr. Jim Kossin is an Atmospheric Research Scientist. He’s with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration or NOAA. Jim is currently a Lead Author on the U.S. Global Change Research Program, for their Fourth National Climate Assessment [NCA4]. He’s also working on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC] Sixth Assessment Report [AR6]. Jim has won awards and the key science he publishes is used by world climate researchers and meteorologists. He’s just published an important paper in the journal Nature.

Dr. Jim Kossin of NOAA leads climate reports for the U.S. Government and the IPCC. His specialty is big storms. Kossin’s latest paper says tropical cyclones (hurricanes) are slowing down and leaving a greater trail of destruction. This is your news before it’s news, on Radio Ecoshock.

https://www.ecoshock.org/2018/06/carbon-climate-showdown.html






« Last Edit: July 05, 2018, 11:54:02 am by AGelbert »
Rob not the poor, because he is poor: neither oppress the afflicted in the gate:
For the Lord will plead their cause, and spoil the soul of those that spoiled them. Pr. 22:22-23

AGelbert

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 31818
  • Location: Colchester, Vermont
    • Renwable Revolution
Re: 🚩 Global Climate Chaos ☠️
« Reply #1409 on: July 05, 2018, 12:31:13 pm »

Radio Ecoshock

June 20, 2018

JIM KOSSIN – MORE DAMAGING STORMS 🌪

My second discussion is with Jim Kossin who just published a paper in Nature about slower moving cyclones since 1950. They are slowing (think Hurricane Harvey) and the peak is moving toward the Poles. Closer to the tropics a slight there may be a slight reprieve in the odds of extreme rainfall events; further north – welcome to a new and terrible experience!

Dr. Jim Kossin, NOAA

From Texas to Taiwan slow-moving hurricanes have caused record damage. Has something changed in the way these big storms work? Four well-known climate scientists are asking “Does global warming make tropical cyclones stronger?”

Dr. Jim Kossin is an Atmospheric Research Scientist. He’s with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration or NOAA. Jim is currently a Lead Author on the U.S. Global Change Research Program, for their Fourth National Climate Assessment [NCA4]. He’s also working on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC] Sixth Assessment Report [AR6]. Jim has won awards and the key science he publishes is used by world climate researchers and meteorologists. He’s just published an important paper in the journal Nature.

Dr. Jim Kossin of NOAA leads climate reports for the U.S. Government and the IPCC. His specialty is big storms. Kossin’s latest paper says tropical cyclones (hurricanes) are slowing down and leaving a greater trail of destruction.

Kossin also helped co-ordinate the Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters. He is a recognized world experts on big storms. Jim’s latest paper was published June 6th, 2018 in Nature. It is titled “A global slowdown of tropical-cyclone translation speed“.

Before we can talk about the most damaging storms in the world, we need to quickly clear up two terms. First, hurricanes and tropical cyclones are the same thing.

Second, storm scientists talk about “translation speed”. While newscasters report on the spinning speed within the hurricane (winds of 160 miles per hour, for example) – the translation speed is the progress of the storm over land or sea. If it is moving “forward” at 30 miles or kilometers per hour, that is the translation speed. This new paper is largely about a slowdown not in the winds of hurricanes (in general those are tending to increase) but in the movement of the big storms across the landscape.

That matters a lot. Hurricane Harvey stayed over Houston for a couple of days, dumping massive amounts of rain, and then doubled back for a second hit. It’s translation speed was quite low. In 2011, I covered Hurricane Irene which wasn’t all that strong by the time it hit New England. But it dumped incredible amounts of rain for several days, causing wide-spread flooding and damage. When we consider a warmer atmosphere puts more water into the sky, a slower translation speed means even more flooding.

Similarly, while scientists suspect that a slow-down in the movement of tropical cyclones/hurricanes is due to climate change, the exact mechanism has not yet been proven.

Another recent paper, published April 6th and led by Ethand Gutmann from The National Center for Atmospheric Research also suggested slower moving storms with faster winds. That study was published by the American Meteorological Society, and it backs up what our guest Jim Kossin found.

From Kossin’s paper, here are the regions most impacted by this tropical cyclone slowdown. “Of particular importance is the slowdown of 30 per cent and 20 per cent over land areas affected by western North Pacific and North Atlantic tropical cyclones, respectively, and the slowdown of 19 per cent over land areas in the Australian region.”

“THE STRONGEST FUTURE STORMS WILL EXCEED THE STRENGTH OF ANY IN THE PAST”

Jim Kossin, Kerry Emanuel, Stefan Rahmstorf and Michael Mann published a post in the RealClimate blog titled “Does global warming make tropical cyclones stronger?“.

This is your news before it’s news, on Radio Ecoshock.

My 31 minute interview with Jim Kossin

https://www.ecoshock.org/2018/06/carbon-climate-showdown.html





Rob not the poor, because he is poor: neither oppress the afflicted in the gate:
For the Lord will plead their cause, and spoil the soul of those that spoiled them. Pr. 22:22-23

 

+-Recent Topics

2020 Presidential Election by AGelbert
January 26, 2020, 12:08:52 am

🚩 Global Climate Chaos ☠️ by AGelbert
January 25, 2020, 06:42:29 pm

Profiles in Courage by AGelbert
January 25, 2020, 06:18:12 pm

War Provocations and Peace Actions by AGelbert
January 25, 2020, 04:39:27 pm

Pollution by AGelbert
January 25, 2020, 04:27:03 pm

Electric Vehicles by AGelbert
January 25, 2020, 03:57:00 pm

Doomstead Diner Daily by AGelbert
January 25, 2020, 03:52:34 pm

Non-routine News by Surly1
January 25, 2020, 07:15:58 am

“It is now 100 seconds to midnight.” by Surly1
January 25, 2020, 06:59:03 am

Money by AGelbert
January 24, 2020, 08:02:28 pm