Renewable Revolution

Quote

I admire his push to get off the planet as a technical achievement, but I share your opinion that it is not presently doable in any sustainable way. When everything goes to hell in a handbasket here, the Mars colonists will get no help from Earth and will perish, PERIOD.

It is quite difficult for me, utilizing the small amount of knowledge about Elon known to me, to consider it even remotely possible that he is  not aware of and has a plan to deal with this problem.
Bezos, Hawkings, Branson and others who view this is viable as well.

They are hardly likely to have a plan that makes them dependent on an entity they feel is doomed.

While extremely skeptical myself of the success of the endevour, this idea is even more improbable to me.

Time will tell. Musk would not be the first genius that bit off more than he could chew. If he can pull off the Mars thing, more power to him. I give him the benefit of the doubt but I am pessimistic about any hope for an off planet solution to mankind's fouling of the nest problem.

Quote from: agelbert on March 11, 2018, 08:05:34 pm

How do you propose to avoid the pitfalls of being the smartest guy in the room? How do you ensure the high IQ folks don't start believing the Darwinian bullshit that they are "better" than the grunts, unless the society you set up is 100% equal pay, equal privilege, equal opportunities and equal food and housing? Is your vision that of a horizontal power structure? If so, I support it.

I have always supported equal pay for equal work.

Look, it is simply ridiculous to say LD does not work as hard as Eddie or is not as Motivated as he is,  but LD gets paid about 10% what Eddie gets paid.  Why?  Because Eddie works in a gated profession that selects for "smart guys", and there aren't many Dentists because of that, but there are a s h i t load of truck drivers all competing for jobs.    Eddie benefits from being part of a Criminal Racket.  He won't ever acknowledge that of course, but it is the truth.

How do you prevent this sort of abuse from occuring?  First off, you get rid of the gate keeping.  Second, you keep the society small enough so everyone realizes that they depend on everyone else for survival.  Sanitation workers contribute more to your overall health than a doctor ever will, but they also are paid a fraction fo the salary that a "doctor" ( read that QUACK 🦆) is paid.  Traders on Wall Street contribute ZERO to the society, but get paid more than ANYBODY!  Does this make sense to you?  It doesn't to me.

RE

GREAT post! 

THe Wall Street insanity certainly DOESN'T make sense to me. It's a joke to anybody that has studied the stock market that we "need" brokers. You don't need a broker to buy a car or a house or whatever. The broker fee "requirement" is, and always was legalized highway robbery.

In regard to human health, Thom Hartmann recently came from a trip to Cuba (not a toursit trip, which is currently not allowed, but an official visit by some approved organization). He was gobsmaked by the perfect teeth he saw everywhere in Cuba, as opposed to the MANY Amercans he runs into in the USA with poor dentition and/or missing teeth due to the unaffordability of dental health care.

Health care should be paid by we-the-people for ALL aspects of human health. I certainly do agree that, regardless of how many years of study you put in, work should be your vocation, not some stepping stone to riches. That said, hard working people like Eddie should not have to buy their equipment (horrendously expensive drills. lazers, specialized chairs, etc) OR pay for office rent. The government SHOULD provide ALL of that and pay the professional a decent income with six weeks vacation a year, in addition to family leave for pregnancies and/or funerals plus child activities like field trips and other government funded mentoring activities to strengthen family ties.
 
But this country went the dog eat dog Darwinian route. That is why things are so messed up. Socialism with horizontal power distribution with 100% democracy and no hierarchichal pecking order of poobahs that prey on the rest of us is the answer. I do not see that happening any time soon. 

Blog Article!   

Fill it out a bit more and send to me in PM without all the fancy fonts.

RE

Let me ponder this for a while. 
I suppose I could gather a bunch of screenshots from Google earth of potential crop growing high mountain areas, check out the tree line during the Eemian period, scrounge around for some LARGE greenhouse pictures (with zombies looking in - just kidding!) and this and that.  I'll get back to you.

By Anthony G. Gelbert (Edited April 6, 2018)

During many periods in human history, some were doing just fine and others lived on the edge of starvation in a constant state of collapse. Abrupt changes in climate, such as that caused in France by a massive Laki volcanic eruption in Iceland in 1783, have resulted in famine induced starvation. In that case, starvation was followed by social upheaval and revolution, instead of collapse. Civilization in Iceland was nearly wiped out with that eruption (over one third of the population was killed), but did not collapse.

For a collapse to occur, the society destroying pressure must last longer than a decade or so. For example, natural climate alterations that produced lengthy droughts caused some ancient starving civilizations to eventually collapse. 

SNIPPET From the March 21, 2016 article, "Ten Civilizations or Nations That Collapsed From Drought", by Jeff Masters:

Drought is the great enemy of human civilization. Drought deprives us of the two things necessary to sustain life--food and water. When the rains stop and the soil dries up, cities die and civilizations collapse, as people abandon lands no longer able to supply them with the food and water they need to live. While the fall of a great empire is usually due to a complex set of causes, drought has often been identified as the primary culprit or a significant contributing factor in a surprising number of such collapses. Drought experts Justin Sheffield and Eric Wood of Princeton, in their 2011 book, Drought, identify more than ten civilizations, cultures and nations that probably collapsed, in part, because of drought. As we mark World Water Day on March 22, we should not grow overconfident that our current global civilization is immune from our old nemesis--particularly in light of the fact that a hotter climate due to global warming will make droughts more intense and impacts more severe. So, presented here is a "top ten" list of drought's great power over some of the mightiest civilizations in world history--presented chronologically.

֍ Collapse #1. The Akkadian Empire in Syria, 2334 BC - 2193 BC.
 
֍ Collapse #2. The Old Kingdom of ancient Egypt, 4200 years ago.

֍ Collapse #3. The Late Bronze Age (LBA) civilization in the Eastern Mediterranean. About 3200 years ago, the Eastern Mediterranean hosted some of the world’s most advanced civilizations.

֍ Collapse #4. The Maya civilization of 250 - 900 AD in Mexico. Severe drought killed millions of Maya people due to famine and lack of water, and initiated a cascade of internal collapses that destroyed their civilization at the peak of their cultural development, between 750 - 900 AD.

֍ Collapse #5. The Tang Dynasty in China, 700 - 907 AD. At the same time as the Mayan collapse, China was also experiencing the collapse of its ruling empire, the Tang Dynasty. Dynastic changes in China often occurred because of popular uprisings during crop failure and famine associated with drought.

֍ Collapse #6. The Tiwanaku Empire of Bolivia's Lake Titicaca region, 300 - 1000 AD. The Tiwanaku Empire was one of the most important South American civilizations prior to the Inca Empire. After dominating the region for 500 years, the Tiwanaku Empire ended abruptly between 1000 - 1100 AD, following a drying of the region, as measured by ice accumulation in the Quelccaya Ice Cap, Peru.

֍ Collapse #7. The Ancestral Puebloan (Anasazi) culture in the Southwest U.S. in the 11th - 12th centuries AD. Beginning in 1150 AD, North America experienced a 300-year drought called the Great Drought.

֍ Collapse #8. The Khmer Empire based in Angkor, Cambodia, 802 - 1431 AD. The Khmer Empire ruled Southeast Asia for  intense decades-long droughts interspersed with intense monsoons in the fourteenth and fifteenth centuries that, in combination with other factors, contributed to the empire's demise.

֍ Collapse #9. The Ming Dynasty in China, 1368 - 1644 AD. China's Ming Dynasty--one of the greatest eras of orderly government and social stability in human history--collapsed at a time when the most severe drought in the region in over 4000 years was occurring, according to sediments from Lake Huguang Maar analyzed in a 2007 article in Nature by Yancheva et al.


֍ Collapse #10. Modern Syria. Syria's devastating civil war that began in March 2011 has killed over 300,000 people, displaced at least 7.6 million, and created an additional 4.2 million refugees. While the causes of the war are complex, a key contributing factor was the nation's devastating drought that began in 1998. The drought brought Syria's most severe set of crop failures in recorded history, which forced millions of people to migrate from rural areas into cities, where conflict erupted. This drought was almost certainly Syria's worst in the past 500 years (98% chance), and likely the worst for at least the past 900 years (89% chance), according to a 2016 tree ring study by Cook et al., "Spatiotemporal drought variability in the Mediterranean over the last 900 years." Human-caused emissions of greenhouse gases were "a key attributable factor" in the drying up of wintertime precipitation in the Mediterranean region, including Syria, in recent decades, as discussed in a NOAA press release that accompanied a 2011 paper by Hoerling et al., On the Increased Frequency of Mediterranean Drought.

A 2016 paper by drought expert Colin Kelley showed that the influence of human greenhouse gas emissions had made recent drought in the region 2 - 3 times more likely.

Ten Civilizations or Nations That Collapsed From Drought - lots of great pictures

As Dr. Jeff Masters evidenced above, extended drought, sometimes alternating with other harsh climate conditions like intense rains, can lead to starvation. Long wars exacerbate the situation, leading directly to collapse.

In addition to the above, there is another climate change based collapse level attack on human civilization, one that is 100% unavoidable now, that has wreaked havoc in the past.

SNIPPET from the March 23, 2018 article, "Humanity has contended with rising seas before — and it didn’t go well for us", by Alxandru Micu:

The Neolithic revolution was the first major transformation humanity had paused — the transition foraging to farming. Spreading out from the Middle East, this wave of change took peoples used to hunt and forage wherever they pleased and tied them down, hoe in hand, to sedentary — but oh so lucrative — farms and fields.

Around 7,600 years ago, however, the revolution paused — no new agricultural settlements seemed to pop up in Southeastern Europe around the time, existing communities declined, and the progress of civilization as a whole came to a standstill. Up until now, we didn’t have any inkling as to why this happened, but new research from the Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre, the Goethe University in Frankfurt, and the University of Toronto sheds some light on this mysterious period.

According to their findings, this lull in progress was due to an abrupt rise in sea levels in the northern Aegean Sea. Evidence of this event was calcified in the fossils of tiny marine algae preserved in seafloor sediments.

The impact this event had on societal dynamics and overall development during the time highlights the potential economic and social threats posed by sea level rise in the future, the team says. Given that climate-change-associated changes in sea level are virtually unavoidable, the team hopes their findings will help us better prepare for the flooding ahead.

“Approximately 7,600 years ago, the sea level must have risen abruptly in the Mediterranean regions bordering Southeastern Europe. The northern Aegean, the Marmara Sea and the Black Sea recorded an increase of more than one meter. This led to the flooding of low-lying coastal areas that would have been ideal areas for settlement,” says lead author Professor Dr. Jens Herrle.

The evidence supports a link between the two timeouts in the Neolithic revolution and the flooding events. The event 8,400 years ago coincides with archaeological findings suggesting that settlements in low-lying areas were under significant hardship from encroaching seas and other associated climatic changes. The renewed rise just 800 years later likely amplified these communities’ woes, keeping them from making the transition to agriculture.

“The source of this may have been Lake Agassiz in North America. This glacial meltwater lake was enclosed in ice and experienced a massive breach during this period, which emptied an enormous volume of water into the ocean.”

Past fluctuations in sea levels have already had a significant effect on human history during the early days of agriculture, the authors note, warning that it would be unwise to dismiss the challenges it will place in our path in the future.

"Humanity has contended with rising seas before — and it didn’t go well for us"

The article goes on to repeat the overly conservative estimate from the IPCC of a rise by up to "one meter over the next 100 years". That is the same IPCC that predicted the amount of ice depletion we have at present at the poles would not occur until 2070. That is the same IPCC that has NOT figured in the contribution of ice loss from Greenland to global sea level rise in any of the models.

So, if you are a logical person, I recommend you count on 3 to 6 meters, at least, of sea level rise several decades before the end of the century. As Peter Ward says (The Flooded Earth: Our Future In a World Without Ice Caps by Peter D. Ward]), over 25% of the world's arable land is near sea level and will be flooded. Most major airports along coastlines will be flooded. Every harbor facility in the world will require a staggering amount of land fill to raise them as the sea level goes up. Most coastal real estate, currently highly assessed in value, will be flooded and become worthless.     

By the way, the latest science indicates that rapid sea level rise will be accompanied by a large increase in volcanic eruptions (which might slow down the heating due to a temporary increase in aerosols), and and increase in earthquaqe activity. The volcanic aerosols, at most, will be a minor speed bump on the way to intolerable climate caos. So, please don't count on volcanic eruptions to 'save us' from global warming hell. That is wishful thinking.

I am not a voice "crying in the wilderness" on this issue. I will provide you some screenshots from the video of a scientist who recently wrote the book, "Waking the Climate Giant". He predicts a continued increase in volcanic activity, now observed in the data, due to terrain bounce from melting land ice and increased pressure on the surrounding seabed, as the the global average temperature increases. It's not the volcanoes that are increasing the heat, it's the greenhouse gases that are causing massive ice melt that, in turn, triggers earthquages and volcanic eruptions. Read his book if you disagree. I just watched the video but I think he is spot on.

On Earth, destructive climate change was not catastrophic before. The difference now it that the entire globe will be impacted. Humans have never lived on a planet with an average temperature of 3° C above pre-industrial. We will pass that mark up a half century before 2100 and continue towards PLUS 4° C and beyond, with no available technological or natural negative feedback mechanism to stop the continued acceleration, not slowing, of the rate of increase in temperature.

Already our atmosphere is being distorted by global warming to the point of pushing the dry subtropical bands on either side of the tropics towards their respective pole, thereby increasind drought conditions in highly populated areas and a large percentage of hitherto arable terrain.

SNIPPET from the February 2, 2016 article, "The mystery of the expanding tropics", by Olive Heffernan

As Earth's dry zones shift rapidly polewards, researchers are scrambling to figure out the cause — and consequences.

One spring day in 2004, Qiang Fu was poring over atmospheric data collected from satellites when he noticed an unusual and seemingly inexplicable pattern. In two belts on either side of the equator, the lower atmosphere was warming more than anywhere else on Earth. Fu, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Washington in Seattle, was puzzled.

It wasn't until a year later that he realized what he had discovered: evidence of a rapid expansion of the tropics, the region that encircles Earth's waist like a green belt. The heart of the tropics is lush, but the northern and southern edges are dry. And these parched borders are growing — expanding into the subtropics and pushing them towards the poles.

Tropical forest losses outpace UN estimates

Cities that currently sit just outside the tropics could soon be smack in the middle of the dry tropical edge. That's bad news for places like San Diego, California. “A shift of just one degree of latitude in southern California — that's enough to have a huge impact on those communities in terms of how much rain they will get,” explains climate modeller Thomas Reichler of the University of Utah in Salt Lake City.


Elsewhere, there is evidence that tropical expansion is affecting the ocean. Where the Hadley cell descends, bringing cool air downward, it energizes the ocean and whips up currents to high speeds. This energy powers the upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich waters towards the surface, which feeds some of the world's most productive fisheries. But there are hints that some of these regions are suffering because of shifts in the Hadley cell.

These upwelling zones could move south over time, or get weaker or stronger, depending on what happens to the Hadley cell, says Cook. In any case, it means that fishing communities that rely on these resources will not be able to count on traditional patterns.

On land, biodiversity is also potentially at risk. This is especially true for the climate zones just below the subtropics in South Africa and Australia, on the southern rim of both continents. In southwestern Australia, renowned as one of the world's biodiversity hotspots, flowers bloom during September, when tourists come to marvel at some of the region's 4,000 endemic plant species. But since the late 1970s, rainfall there has dropped by one-quarter. The same is true at South Africa's Cape Floristic Province, another frontier known for its floral beauty. “This is the most concrete evidence we have of tropical expansion,” says Steve Turton, an environmental geographer at James Cook University in Cairns, Australia.

Turton worries that the rate of change will be too rapid for these ecosystems to adapt. “We're talking about rapid expansion that's within half or a third of a human lifetime,” he says. In the worst-case scenario, the subtropics will overtake these ecologically rich outposts and the hotter, drier conditions will take a major toll.

The Mystery of the Expanding Tropics

Vermont is already experiencing the economy harming effects of climate change. A Vermonter, concerned about this, wrote about it. He has a right to be.

Watching Nature Collapse March 24th, 2018 by George Harvey

Sometimes it seems the best of everything is passing away.

SNIPPET:

A few years ago, someone threw a peach pit into shrubbery on the front yard of the house where I live. The tree that sprouted from the peach pit is now bearing fruit. Neighbors have paw-paw trees growing in their yards. But Vermont’s maple sugar industry, and the apple orchards, and the blueberry fields are all suffering. Vermont is fast becoming a place unlike what it has ever been, and it is not an improvement.

Watching Nature Collapse

Don't look at what he wrote as the "new normal" and just think we can 'adapt' to climate change by growing different crops and so on. This is the leading edge of climate that will soon, much sooner than many think, become intolerable for crop growing. We are not just on a treadmill moving in the wrong direction; our velocity on that deadly treadmill is increasing. Please keep that in mind so you are not lulled into thinking it would be 'nice' to grow palm trees in Burlington. Yes, the fossil fuel industry 🦖 does continue to try to pitch the 'warmer weather good' out of context propaganda happy talk. They'll do anything to keep their profit over people and planet suicide machine going. Stupid is as stupid does.

All these deleterious effects of Catastrophic Climate Change will continually get worse, not for a decade or so, but for over a century.

Temperatures unsuitable for human life are baked in for at least a couple of centuries, even if we stopped the insanity of constantly making things even worse by going on a crash program to stop burning fossil fuels. Yeah, we have to do that. Yeah, if we don't, we are all dead. But, regardless of what we do, it will take a while to catch up to all of us. I write this for those who, though sadly unable to stop the insane suicidal "business model" of the biosphere killing fossil fuel fascists, wish to survive as long as possible.


I wish to stress that, though many confused voices out there do not wish to face this, the one unifying aspect of the present threat 🌡️ to human civilization is Catastrophic Climate Change 🚩, NOT lack of fossil fuel based energy.

Have I got your attention? Good.

Then, look at this graphic from the Video, "Waking the Climate Giant", and ask yourself if it reflects our current situation:


The above graphic is already correct in its prediciton. In 2017 (the emissions data was for the years 2014, 2015 and 2016) the greenhouse gas emissions INCREASED. Consequently, there is a very, very high probability that the collapse of our civilization will occur much sooner than we think.

Some humans in different parts of the globe are already well acquainted with living on the edge of collapse. I am absolutely certain that many jungle tribes in Brazil, Ecuador and Peru, RIGHT NOW, live on the edge of starvation in a constant state of collapse, while most of the city dwellers nearby live not much better, but still avoid starvation.

My point in this quixotic exercise in hard truth logic is that the lack of food in the past has eventually triggered revolutions, not collapse of the civilization. It is after the social upheaval, when no solution to the lack of food problem is found, such as is in LONG WARS of aggression or extended harsh climate conditions, that collapse ensues.

People tend to fear other people more than deleterious climate. People can certainly be a threat to your life and stuff, but Catastrophic Climate Change is a much greater threat to everything you hold dear, past, present and future.

Catastrophic Climate Change is worse than a long war of aggression because it will last much longer than a human lifetime.

The climate change problem is intractable, but I believe some WILL beat it for maybe a century or so. For example, there are places near the equator with very high mountains. A world heated plus 4° C by around 2060, despite happy talk by certain wishful thinkers, will kill off most humans. BUT, in high mountains, the tree line will move way up while the temperature becomes temperate, even at the Equator. I stress the equator, though RE will vigorously disagree, because human civilization in a low food environment with over acidified seas (no easy fish or whales or seals to catch = NO ESKIMOS) with poor available sunlight is not a recipe for long term survival, even if the temperature is mild enough to grow crops.

There is a mountain in Ecuador (Chimborazo) about 20,000 feet high that will, because of the horrendously altered atmosphere, get plenty of rain even at high altitudes. There are several other candidates in the HIGH tropics around the world. This will enable the folks living there to grow enough food, thanks to an ABUNDANCE of sunlight all year round, with low tech methods. They just might be able to ride out the fossil fuel burning stupidity that dooms most of human civilization.

The tree line, the highest point on a mountain that trees will grow, varies between 5,000 feet and up to 13,000 feet above sea level. It varies so much mainly because of wind chill, though the length of the summer growing season is important as well. A tree in relatively mild wind conditions can grow all the way up to the maximum recorded tree line altitude at temperature well below freezing (down to minus 40° F =- 40° C  ), provided its roots can get enough water.

Trees can have liquid water in their tracheal elements at such low temperatures because of a wonderful combination of two factors. The first is that the 'pumping' mechanism of a tree is more a sucking mechanism than a pumping mechanism. The transpiration of water vapor into the atmosphere at the branch leaf pores creates negative pressure on the water molecules inside the tree (as long as the tracheal elements vacuum is not breached by air intrusion).

Water molecules, as they travel up the inside of tree, aided by capillary action as well as transpiration, can be stretched by as much as negative 25 atmospheres! That is how those Giant Sequoias can move up to a 130 gallons of water a day over a 100 feet vertically.

The second factor is that the water in the tracheal elements, in addition to being thoroughly stretched, is extremely pure. This prevents the crystalization of water around non-water substances that would normally trigger freezing at 0° C. But, when the wind is howling during below freezing temperatures, the wind chill can cause the water in the tree to freeze and eventually kill the tree.

The closer to the equator a high mountain tree is located, the longer it's growing season will be. If the growing season is too short, like in the White Mountains of New Hampshire, the tree line is only about 4,500 feet.

SNIPPET from an article about the Tree line:

The elevational limit of such suitable summer conditions varies by latitude. In Mexico, for example, treeline occurs somewhere around 13,000 feet, whereas farther north, in the Tetons, for instance, it occurs lower, at approximately 10,000 feet. Again, it’s a ragged line that may vary by hundreds of feet on any mountain, depending largely on shelter and exposure.

Because the elevational treeline is so closely tied to temperature, many suggest that it could be a particularly sensitive indicator of global climate change. Presumably, rising temperatures would increase the elevation of treeline in any locale, altering forest distribution and potentially ousting rare plant communities – and their inhabitants – that now exist above treeline. Although the specific physiological mechanism of treeline formation is not fully understood, there is growing photographic and other evidence of upward shifts in treelines worldwide.

Why Is the Treeline at a Higher Elevation in the Tetons than in the White Mountains?

A PLUS 4° C (and still going up) atmosphere by around 2060 will enable trees to grow at much higher altitudes. For every degree increase in average global temperature, a corresponding increase in humidity of at least 7% to 13% will take place. We will have an atmosphere expanding vertically, but also with increased humidity. This will accelerate warming because water vapor is a powerful greenhouse gas, but the good news is that high mountain areas will, in some areas, experience more rain higher up.

As noted at the beginning of this article, humans need water and other adequate growing conditions in order to have a viable civilization.

The Catastrophic Climate Changed world of 2060 will be a stormy place. The over acidified, mostly dead oceans, will be full of giant waves. The winds during storms will be off the charts in comparison to what we experience now. High up in the mountains, some type of barrier will need to be erected to keep the fierce winds from destroying the crops.

Finally, those hardy folks who carve out a life in year-round sunny high mountains will have to deal with UV radiation. It is a fact that, at present, the UV levels at around 10,000 ft. and above are particularly hazardous to humans.

However, with the expanded atmosphere in an overheated planet, this is the one area I see as hopeful for humans and animals living on very high mountains. You see, in said expanded atmosphere of plus 4° C and above, the massive increase in humidity will inhibit UV radiaiton.

Nevertheless. Since the equator alpine areas are infamous for high UV radiation, it would be prudent to plan to plant crops that have high UV tolerant foliage, like tubers. Hopefully, the greatly increased humidity will help protect the High Mountain Human Heroes.

SNIPPET:

Everyone is exposed to UV radiation from the sun and an increasing number of people are exposed to artificial sources used in industry, commerce and recreation. Emissions from the sun include visible light, heat and UV radiation.

The UV region covers the wavelength range 100-400 nm and is divided into three bands:

UVA (315-400 nm)
UVB (280-315 nm)
UVC (100-280 nm).

As sunlight passes through the atmosphere, all UVC and approximately 90% of UVB radiation is absorbed by ozone, water vapour, oxygen and carbon dioxide. UVA radiation is less affected by the atmosphere. Therefore, the UV radiation reaching the Earth’s surface is largely composed of UVA with a small UVB component.

Environmental factors that influence the UV level

Sun height—the higher the sun in the sky, the higher the UV radiation level. Thus UV radiation varies with time of day and time of year, with maximum levels occurring when the sun is at its maximum elevation, at around midday (solar noon) during the summer months.

Latitude—the closer the equator, the higher the UV radiation levels. 

Cloud cover— UV radiation levels are highest under cloudless skies. Even with cloud cover, UV radiation levels can be high due to the scattering of UV radiation by water molecules and fine particles in the atmosphere.

Altitude—at higher altitudes, a thinner atmosphere filters less UV radiation. With every 1000 metres increase in altitude, UV levels increase by 10% to 12%.

http://www.who.int/uv/uv_and_health/en/

What do you think are the chances of human civilization achieving what the following graph says we HAVE TO DO?


There is NO WAY in God's (formerly good) Earth that we can avoid a climate that is almost entirely unsuitable for human life. The above graphic illustrates that. Anyone who thinks that we can do what needs to be done to avoid a PLUS 4° C (and above!) climate that will kill most humans and cause the extinction of thousands of other vertebrate species is engaging in magical thinking.   

ALL the people near the surface in the tropics will die as crispy critters, period. Those in temperate zones will perish too. Those near the poles who live near the surface will last as long as the food they have lasts. Unless they can maintain some geothermally heated and powered high tech greenhouse CITY that includes PLENTY of crop growing quality light and plenty of water, they will die too.

I might add that those greenhouse giant domes, both near the poles ond on high equatorial mountains, had better be MASSIVELY strong. The storms that will visit them and the wind speeds they will face in a PLUS 4 ° C planet  will make any recent hurricane look like a gentle breeze.

In Antarctica, some vegetables have now been (sort of) successfully grown.

SNIPPET:

These Antarctic vegetables were grown without pesticides, daylight, or even soil — but they look absolutely delicious.


Germany’s southernmost workplace, the Neumayer-Station III, has harvested the first crop of Antarctic vegetables. Biologists report that they’ve successfully grown 3.6 kilograms (8 pounds) of salad greens, 18 cucumbers and 70 radishes grown inside a high-tech greenhouse, as temperatures around the research station were plummeting to -20 degrees Celsius (-4 Fahrenheit).

The plants were grown without soil, in a closed-water circle. No outside lighting was used — instead, researchers optimized and used an LED system. The carbon dioxide cycle was also closely monitored.

While this is a solid crop already, researchers are expecting much more in the future. The German Aerospace Center DLR, which coordinates the project, said that in the coming months, they expect to harvest 4-5 kilograms of fruit and vegetables a week.


Full article: Scientists harvest first batch of Antarctic vegetables

I am skeptical of the nutritive value of crops grown this way. Though it is good to know they used no pesticdes, the article says nothing about any nutritive mineral analysis of these vegetables, so there is no evidence yet that this is a sustainable crop growing method in a harsh climate changed plus 4 degrees C world.

The article ends with optimistic talk about using the above technique (and similar techniques like they use in the International Space Station) to eventually grow food in spaceships and on other planets.

Within a decade or less, successfully growing food near the poles will be far more important for the survival of humanity here on earth than in space or on some other planet. 

Speaking of activity near the poles to deal with Climate Change, Iceland is one of the few places on Earth that are seeing benefits from Climate Change. They may be destined to be one of the outposts of humanity in an increasingly overheated world.

Now they are planting evergreens 🌱 🌲.
But, if we do not reverse the overheating trend, they will eventually have to plant these: 🌴 



Vikings cleared the forests, now Iceland is bringing them back

Even with laudable efforts like the forest planting project in Iceland, humanity needs to do far, far more to survive.

We will need gigantic, and I mean "miles in diameter" GIGANTIC, greenhouses to get a reasonable amount of food grown near the poles and/or on the equatorial mountains.

The giant greenhouse domes situated in the high equatorial mountains would have to be something like the U.K. Eden Project Domes, but way up high on a mountain. In England they have an enclosed rainforest in these domes. They need to be ten or twenty times bigger for an equatorial alpine community. If the post collapse alpine community could control the atmospheric pressure in the giant domes, more UV protection is guaranteed and more comfortable living for humans too.



For those still worried about fellow humans trying to kill you for your stuff, remember that high mountains are a natural defense against warlike humans during the initial phases of the Climate Change Caused Collapse. The heat lower down will eliminate any human threat after a couple of decades. 

STOP thinking you are going to live on planet that has the remotest resemblance to the one you have lived in all your life. THAT is WISHFUL THINKING! The LEAST of your problems is going to be worrying about the "zombie" humans getting your stuff.

NOTE: I pose these issues for your discussion. I will not argue the merits of them beyond this comment. If you disagree with anything I said, then you are entitled to be as wrong as you like.     

April 28th, 2018 by James Ayre

As the ice sheets of the world melt, an enormous amount of pressure will be lifted off of the continental crusts that play host to them, as well as the surrounding oceanic basins. Something similar is broadly true, but to a much lesser degree, of the world’s remaining large glaciers (think of the Himalayas).

As this pressure is lifted, after tens of millions of years of being there, tectonic and volcanic features that have been dormant for hundreds of thousands of years or even tens of millions of years will awake — as will broader geologic-system elements and processes.


The ice sheets of East Antarctica have effectively been there in one form or other for ~15 million years (to a lesser extent than now, though), while a portion of the Greenland ice sheet is thought to have partially melted around 120,000–130,000 years ago during the Eemian interglacial period. The volcanic and tectonic pressures of the regions in question, in other words, are now well primed.

While all of this may just sound like a horror story or something to some of those reading this, there’s a reason for that — a basic sense of highly traumatic natural disasters is encoded culturally (and possibly genetically as well) in people, with stories being the vehicle to bring such awareness to the surface. (This is the take of many people, mine included.) That basic sense effectively brings with it hundreds or thousands of millennia’s worth of “human” experience of extreme natural disruption and disaster. Hence the relatively common human fascination with them (think of the way that some but not all people are inherently wary of snakes and spiders, despite the very limited immediate danger they pose).

The reality is that the last few thousand years have been almost unbelievably stable by (pre)historical standards when it comes to geologic and volcanic events. Looking back across longer stretches of time, one sees what would be considered to be “civilization-wrecking” natural disasters regularly.

One also often sees, of course, oceans with currents, winds, and waves that would effectively make modern-style large-scale oceanic shipping an impossibility. These periods of time often seem to also be host to enormous and powerful storms that do not have modern analogs. But that’s mostly neither here nor there with regard to this subject. Though, I will note that as sea levels continue rising, and as ocean temperatures continue rising, the total area of the earth covered by the oceans will increase, and a greater portion of overall ocean area will relate to shallow areas — which will make the open oceans a much more dangerous place than they are now.

Back to the subject at hand, though, I’m going to provide an overview here of the potential volcanic and geologic events awaiting us as the world’s ice sheets disappear and the processes buried beneath them wake up. I’m going to do that by doing what reliably throughout human existence has given the best predictions — taking a look at the past (at actual geological history), inferring patterns, and intuitively projecting them out onto the future.



As a reminder of why this matters, it should be realized that the world is now on track for a 3° Celsius to 8° Celsius temperature rise by the year 2100 — effectively, enough to lead to the complete melting of the West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, and possibly the East Antarctic ice sheet as well.


As far as the timing of such melting, assuming that the just mentioned range of warming occurs by 2100, it shouldn’t be assumed that melting and collapse will occur slowly or evenly. As noted in a 2007 paper co-authored by James Hansen: “We find no evidence of millennial lags between forcing and ice sheet response in paleoclimate data. An ice sheet response time of centuries seems probable, and we cannot rule out large changes on decadal time-scales once wide-scale surface melt is underway.”

That’s the reality of the situation — past ice sheet melting processes have played host to catastrophic pulse events, whereby global average sea levels have risen by many tens of feet in just a few years time. 

In such cases, pressure changes on tectonic plates and volcanic hotspots would have been severe, leading directly over the short  or mid term to a large uptick in volcanic and tectonic activity, as numerous studies exploring the issue have found. (For instance, by 2 to 6 times above background levels from 12,000 years ago to 7,000 years ago in de-glaciating regions with regard to volcanism.)

On that note, in the past when this subject has been brought up, I have heard some people argue that such an increase in volcanism would result in global cooling due to the release of reflective compounds into the atmosphere. A look back at geological history, though, shows clearly that this idea is mistaken — volcanic cooling due to the release of reflective compounds is a very short-term phenomena, whereas greenhouse gas climate forcing plays out over much longer periods of time. To simplify it, greenhouse gases are atmospheric gases, whereas the reflective compounds just discussed are essentially dust (which largely settles).

It should be realized here, in relation to that, that the current widespread burning of fossil fuels itself results in the release of such reflective compounds into the atmosphere. If such burning was to cease completely as of right now, the “cooling” effect provided by such compounds would disappear over just a few years while the “heating” effects provided by the greenhouse gases released to date would continue far into the future. As it stands, the greenhouse effect already greatly eclipses the cooling effect, but with the settling of the reflective compounds, heat gain would amplify quickly — leaving the world in a bit of a catch-22 when it comes to fossil fuel burning.

Moving on to the crux of the article…


To start this off, it should be noted that some research examining the history of the relationship between volcanic events and ice sheet melting has posited the theory that one of the drivers for the relatively rapid shifts from glacial to interglacial time periods (as is often seen in the geologic record) is in fact rising rates of volcanism.

The idea is that, as ice sheets melt, the reduced pressure leads to rising rates of volcanism (as can be observed in the record) and this leads to gains in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations over the mid term. So, to say it again, over the mid term, rising rates of volcanism leads to rising temperatures — as the cooling effect resulting from the volcanic emission of reflective compounds into the atmosphere is short lived whereas the effects of greenhouse gases are much longer lived.

Conversely, that idea includes the assertion that falling rates of volcanism (as interglacials drag on) is a cause of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and temperatures — and thus a return to glacial conditions.

Interestingly, the evidence also seems to show that, as temperatures rise, and thus as sea levels rise (from glacial melt), volcanic activity on the seafloor is reduced — owing to the greater weight of the water resting on it. Tectonic activity on the other hand is a different matter — as increasing oceanic weights may well intensify the intensity of earthquakes and similar events.

To go back to specifics here, there are numerous volcanoes currently active around the peripheries of Antarctica, but what’s very interesting is the presence of an extensive volcanic belt beneath the West Antarctic Ice Sheet — possibly the largest such belt of volcanoes in the world according to a recent study (at least 138 strong, some of which are quite extensive).

As noted in that study, West Antarctica is also home to one of the “most extensive regions of stretched continental crust on the Earth,” so it’s not surprising to learn that volcanic and tectonic activity in the region is potentially (periodically) quite high.

What’s particularly notable to us here right now, though, are the potential effects that such subglacial volcanic and tectonic activity could have on the stability to the nearby ice sheets. It isn’t necessary for an ice sheet to completely melt for a large volcano to erupt, after all — partial melting, and thus greatly reduced compression, could well be enough on its own to trigger widespread subglacial volcanic activity in the region.

And what would a large increase in volcanic and tectonic activity lead to in the region? Increased ice sheet melt rates? Large partial collapse events? Sea level rise pulses of several to tens of feet in just a few years time? To what degree could subglacial volcanic eruptions increase basal ice sheet flow rates?

Of course, no one can say for sure on any of those counts as of right now, but it is very notable that there’s evidence for numerous large sea level rise pulses throughout prehistory that retain ambiguous origins. The speculations discussed above provide a potential (partial) answer.

Back to the world of what is known concretely, Antarctica is currently home to at least 4 volcanoes on the mainland, and numerous volcanoes on nearby islands. As would be expected, these active volcanoes are only known of because they are located on the peripheries of the ice sheets, or on outcrops. Whatever volcanoes are present under the vast ice sheets have to be inferred (though they are clearly widespread, with there being at least 138 in just West Antarctica, as noted above).


The 4 active mainland volcanoes are: Mount Berlin; Mount Hampton; Mount Melbourne; and Mount Kauffman — three stratovolcanoes and a caldera. On the surrounding islands, there are a fair number of active and large volcanoes as well, including Mount Erebus and Deception Island, both of which have been relatively active in recent history. Other island volcanoes known to be active are: Penguin Island; Buckle Island; Lindenberg Island; and Paulet Island.

The area around West Antarctica is also known to be home to numerous underwater volcanoes — some of which are located in relatively shallow areas.

Evidence for high levels of relatively “active” volcanoes in the region include pronounced geomagnetic anomalies, evidence of subglacial volcanism, and high regional heat fluxes — that all being the case, those that assume the relative quiet of recent centuries with regard to West Antarctic volcanism will continue indefinitely are likely mistaken. As the ice sheets there continue shedding mass (and thus lowering compression), an increase in activity seems likely.

Another aspect to consider while discussing this subject is the presence of large coal deposits and oil shales (dating back to the Devonian and Jurassic periods mostly) around the Transantarctic Mountain range. While such a possibility is a low-probability event, it still seems worth considering what would happen if these relativity exposed coal seams were to be ignited via volcanism (an event which appears that have happened at numerous times in prehistory in different parts of the world).


What do we know about the volcanic and tectonic history of Greenland? Not much, due to the great thickness of the ice sheet that covers most of the island and limited research to date. What we can say for sure, though, is that a volcanic hotspot is located just to the east on the island on Iceland. We can also note that Iceland is known to have experienced an increase in volcanic activity as it de-glaciated.

Does this imply that something similar will happen in Greenland (but on a much larger scale)? No one can say for sure one way or another at this point.

Despite that being the case, I’ll still note here that, given the bowl-like shape of the island (with the ice sheet held in the center), potential subglacial volcanic eruptions would likely increase the rate at which the ice sheet melts and flows into the sea. Geologic history shows this to be the case in Iceland, and something very similar has been inferred to have happened numerous times in West Antarctica in the past as well.

Something that’s less up for debate, though, are the effects that the melting of the truly massive ice sheet of Greenland would have on the tectonic stability of the wider region. It’s pretty much a given that large tectonic events would follow over the near or mid term if the ice sheet were to completely (or even just largely) disintegrate. Other things to bear in mind are the possibilities of such melting events setting off sea-floor sediment collapses, like the one thought to have caused an enormous tsunami that hit Western Europe in prehistory; and also the inevitability of large post-glacial rebound in the surrounding areas (the land rises due to the lack of compression).

There are other possibilities as well, of course, but the aforementioned ones should give those who read this a better understanding of the way that ice sheet melting and cycles of regional and volcanic and tectonic activity are linked. While cycles may not show clearly on the global level when it comes to such things, they do tend to show on the regional and local levels.

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https://cleantechnica.com/2018/04/28/the-tectonic-volcanic-events-that-will-accompany-the-melting-of-the-ice-sheets-an-overview/

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High Engineering

Published on May 8, 2018

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