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Author Topic: Future Earth  (Read 53633 times)

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AGelbert

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Re: Future Earth
« Reply #120 on: September 24, 2015, 01:07:01 am »

The only way to approach this situation is to demand all fossil fuels stop being burned. I will never agree with you that we need them.

I have never argued that we need Fossil Fuels.  In fact I argue precisely the opposite, that Homo Sap did fine without them for millenia.  I argue that we can return to Stone Age technology (with some improvements) and live a rich, intellectually and culturally diverse life without all the Bling we seem to think is necessary now.

The Polynesians did it.


They built those boats with all stone age technology.  No metal hardware whatsoever.

DONE ONCE, IT CAN BE DONE AGAIN.

RE

I won't argue the point.  Sails are cool!   


But there is an issue with the collapse scenario you may not have taken into consideration.

As you know, the ocean served as a CO2 sink for the greater part of the industrial revolution, thereby masking the seriousness of the CO2 pollution existential threat to humanity. Now, as the scientist in the Arctic lecture I posted today said, the ocean is undergoing what they call "sink degradation". That's another way of saying that it CANNOT keep sucking in CO2 at the rate it has been doing for over a century until about 2010.

Each year it's rate of CO2 absorption is slowing.

Since the rate we are emitting CO2 is NOT slowing, the atmosphere has another positive feedback goosing warming.

And, of course, the 40 years of baked in CO2 is still being emitted at increased rates as well because 40 years ago our CO2 emissions were accelerating like crazy.

The ocean CO2 emissions CLOCK is at around 1975. If we had STOPPED burning fossil fuels in 1975, NOW the oceans would begin to heal and the parts per million in the atmosphere would have reached their zenith of a  little less than 400PPM or so. Yep, CO2 is VERY persistent, once it gets in the atmosphere. And through the hypothetical 40 year period without fossil fuel burning, the oceans would be emitting right up to the present.

A cursory glance at the industrial activity of the human civilization since 1975 only leaves the brain damaged wishful thinkers with any hope that we can put a lid on atmospheric CO2 before they reach Permian extinction levels.

We have plus 4 degrees C above baseline (pre-industrial civilization) ensured if we stop burning fossil fuels TODAY. Man has never walked the earth in a climate over plus 3.3C from baseline.

But it gets worse.

There is another mechanism threatening the chances of those rooting for collapse to save the hide of a small percentage of humans.
That is particulate matter emitted by industrial civilization that, like the ocean CO2 sink I mention, masks global warming by providing some aerosol caused dimming.

We have a hell of high temperature baked in with the 4C mark.

But guess what happens when civilization collapses? The temperature JUMPS about ONE degree!


So all that "happy talk" about a collapse saving the good guys because 90% of humanity buys the farm is wishful thinking.

WHY? Because when all that particulate matter isn't there because all the factories and other machines that emit STOP emitting, the air clears within days to a few weeks and the sun becomes ANOTHER positive feedback mechanism jacking up the temperature.   

Sorry, I couldn't resist bringing in the doom smileys ;D. And no more Alaskan mountain pictures, please. I know you'll be holed up in the mountains. It's still gonna be a major challenge to survive. What do you do for water in the mountains if it DOES NOT RAIN?

The lack of clouds (see my post on "the other CO2 problem" of ocean acidification killing the critters than produce a cloud making chemical) is still another positive feedback mechanism.

And trees ALSO make that chemical. If you got a giant tree die off, your cloud cover is further reduced. That ANOTHER positive feedback mechanism to heat the cr ap out the vegetation left and kill more trees.

The dying plankton that no longer turn white (for up to a thousand square miles or so) when they are blooming is still another positive feedback mechanism enabling the oceans to absorb MORE heat.

The noble savages surviving the human cull will have to deal with a world that CONTINUES to warm rapidly for AT LEAST a century. And the staying power of that CO2 causing that heat is estimated by credentialed atmospheric scientists (this is WITHOUT any emissions whatsoever!) to be not less than a 1,000 years.

These screen shots below are from a Guy McPherson lecture but the data has NOTHING to do with his opinions. As you can see (the  literature references), it is hard science, not hyperbole or scaremongering.



He that loveth father or mother more than me is not worthy of me: and he that loveth son or daughter more than me is not worthy of me. Matt 10:37

 

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