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Author Topic: Future Earth  (Read 10187 times)

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AGelbert

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Re: Future Earth
« Reply #285 on: December 31, 2017, 05:06:44 pm »
An enormous waterfall gushes off the Antarctic Nansen Ice Shelf. Credit: Jonathan Kingslake

Agelbert NOTE: This August 2017 podcast is as current now as it was then. The effects of the ice melting for the biosphere and the life forms in the ice are discussed in detail.

Big Picture Science: On Thin Ice - 14 Aug 2017

©2017 SETI Institute


Eurico Roberto

Published on Aug 14, 2017

Hosted by Seth Shostak and Molly Bentley. Water is essential for life – that we know.  But the honeycomb lattice that forms when you chill it to zero degrees Celsius is also inexorably intertwined with life.

Ice is more than a repository for water that would otherwise raise sea levels.  It’s part of Earth’s cooling system … a barrier preventing decaying organic matter from releasing methane gas … and a vault entombing ancient bacteria and other microbes.

From the Arctic to the Antarctic, global ice is disappearing.   Find out what’s at stake as atmospheric CO2 threatens frozen H2O.

Guests:

Peter Wadhams - Emeritus Professor of Ocean Physics at Cambridge University in the U.K. and the author of A Farewell to Ice: A Report from the Arctic http://www.damtp.cam.ac.uk/user/pw11/ https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/019...

Eric Rignot - Earth systems scientist, University of California, Irvine, senior research scientist, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory http://www.faculty.uci.edu/profile.cf...

Åsmund Asdal
- Biologist, Nordic Genetic Resource Center, coordinator for operations and management of the Svalbard Global Seed Vault, Svalbard, Norway https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%85s...

John Priscu - Polar biologist, Montana State University http://landresources.montana.edu/dept...

Descripción en español http://musingsfromthecosmicshore.net/...

Read more at http://radio.seti.org

©2017 SETI Institute. All Rights Reserved
189 Bernardo Ave, Suite 200, Mountain View, CA 94043 Phone 650.961.6633

Category Science & Technology
License Standard YouTube License


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AGelbert

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Re: Future Earth
« Reply #286 on: December 31, 2017, 05:35:01 pm »
What Will The World Look Like After Climate Change?


53,483 views

LifesBiggestQuestions

Published on Sep 20, 2017
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Re: Future Earth
« Reply #287 on: January 01, 2018, 07:34:13 pm »
Climate Scientist Mike Mann: Understanding Dire Predictions


 Climate State

Published on Jul 18, 2017

This 2016 lecture featuring Michael E Mann http://www.meteo.psu.edu/holocene/pub...
 begins with a review of the now-solid evidence for a human influence on the climate of recent decades. Such evidence includes instrumental measurements available for the past two centuries, paleoclimate observations spanning more than a millennium, and comparisons of the predictions from computer models with observed patterns of climate change. Further the lecture addresses future impacts of human-induced climate change including possible influences on sea level rise, severe weather, and water supply. The video concludes with a discussion on the solutions to the climate crisis.

Michael E. Mann is Distinguished Professor of Atmospheric Science at Penn State University, with joint appointments in the Department of Geosciences and the Earth and Environmental Systems Institute (EESI). He is also director of the Penn State Earth System Science Center (ESSC).

Dr. Mann received his Ph.D. in Geology & Geophysics from Yale University. His research involves the use of theoretical models and observational data to better understand Earth's climate system. He was a Lead Author on the Observed Climate Variability and Change chapter of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Scientific Assessment Report in 2001 and was organizing committee chair for the National Academy of Sciences Frontiers of Science in 2003. He has received a number of honors including NOAA’s outstanding publication award in 2002. He contributed, with other IPCC authors, to the award of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize. He was awarded the Hans Oeschger Medal of the European Geosciences Union in 2012 and the National Conservation Achievement Award for science by the National Wildlife Federation in 2013. He made Bloomberg News list of fifty most influential people in 2013.

Dr. Mann is a Fellow of the American Geophysical Union, the American Meteorological Society and the American Association for the Advancement of Science. He is author of more than 190 peer-reviewed and edited publications and has published the books Dire Predictions: Understanding Climate Change and The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars: Dispatches from the Front Lines. He is also a co-founder of the award-winning science website RealClimate.org.

“The Madhouse Effect” is a part of series of lectures given at the University of Iceland on May 27th 2016 at the conference "The Past, the Future. How Fast, How Far? Threats Facing the Climate System"

Video produced by Earth101.
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AGelbert

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Re: Future Earth
« Reply #288 on: January 05, 2018, 10:03:35 pm »
Confronting Climate Change: Avoiding the Unmanageable, Managing the Unavoidable


University of California Television (UCTV)

Published on Jul 4, 2017

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AGelbert

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Re: Future Earth
« Reply #289 on: January 14, 2018, 02:22:52 pm »

Global Warming Is Going To Demolish Economies & Societies

January 14th, 2018 by Zachary Shahan

SNIPPET:

We had an article last week about the threat to the Florida real estate market that is coming our way from continued heating of the globe, rising sea levels, increased flooding, and stronger storms slamming the coast. Some comments under the article highlighted that such threats persist along vast US coastlines as well as coastlines across the world — it’s not just Florida. The fact of the matter is, humans have long settled close to seas, rivers, oceans, gulfs, and bays — and many of the world’s most populated and economically vital cities and regions will be physically harmed to one degree or another by the effects of climate change.

One commenter highlighted this threat for a rather rich country he’s a resident of, but noted, “I think we will cope but it will sure as hell be costly.”

I’m not sure how much we’ve actually thought about that. I think we tend to look at the potential damage and then our minds are eager to shut off before going further. We may also deeply realize how fragile our economies are and not want to even consider the catastrophic possibilities.

The thing about physical harm is that it reverberates and is amplified beyond the obvious damage from the initial strike. If real estate is flooded or destroyed by a storm, that could well pause an individual’s ability to contribute to the economy, it could take away resources a city was going to put into new infrastructure, and it could stifle socioeconomic or entrepreneurial progress that was being made at the location of the strike.

Full article:

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/01/14/global-warming-going-demolish-economies-societies/


10 C DEGREE RISE BY 2026?  
 

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AGelbert

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Re: Future Earth
« Reply #290 on: January 14, 2018, 05:37:12 pm »
The Revolution Will Not Be On Your cell phone either.

rEVolution 2018 — Tony Seba, William Li, Colin McKerracher, Kristof Vereenooghe, Monica Araya, & Me

January 14th, 2018 by Zachary Shahan



https://cleantechnica.com/2018/01/14/revolution-2018-tony-seba-william-li-colin-mckerracher-kristof-vereenooghe-monica-araya/
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Re: Future Earth
« Reply #291 on: January 22, 2018, 01:56:35 pm »
Why Minorites WELCOME Artificial Intelligence 🦋 in ALL ✨ Public Activities



SNIPPET:

The researchers developed an algorithm they call S#. Then they used machines programmed with that algorithm in a series of two player games to see how good they would be at cooperating. The games involved machine-to-machine, machine-to-human, and human-to-human interactions. More often than not, the machines did a better job of finding compromises that benefited both parties.

“Two humans, if they were honest with each other and loyal, would have done as well as two machines,” Crandall says. “As it is, about half of the humans lied at some point. So, essentially, this particular algorithm is learning that moral characteristics are good. It’s programmed to not lie, and it also learns to maintain cooperation once it emerges.”

Could machines teach us how to be better humans? Crandall thinks so. “In society, relationships break down all the time,” he says. “People that were friends for years all of a sudden become enemies. Because the machine is often actually better at reaching these compromises than we are, it can potentially teach us how to do this better.”

Does this raise the possibility that machines could do a better job of governing? That is certainly an intriguing question. The most recent actions of the US Congress suggest that machines could not possibly do worse. 



Full article:

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/01/21/face-ai-enabled-machines-cooperate-better-humans-tests/

Agelbert NOTE: This is a comment I made yesterday on the above January 21, 2018 article published at Cleantechnica:

They are not impaired by erroneous perceptions like 'dislike of the unlike' or prejudices of any sort. Artificial Intelligence does not game a siituation (i.e. deliberately make it less efficient or more costly) to provide job security for itself, though it might do so to provide some advantage for its  programmer.

For example, the judicial system could easily be run by computer judges. It is no run by them simply because the main function of judicial systems is to defend pecking order privilege, not to do justice. That is why you may see medical robots assisting doctors but you won't see AI judges or lawyers any time soon.

People on the receiving end of prejudice and micro-aggresions have noticed this. They were never real happy with the vaunted "mom and pop" stores that so many people claim were "so much better" than big box stores. No, they were a prejudice, over pricing horror (and still are) if you are the wrong (insert color or ethnicity here) type of customer.

Minorites welcome computers because they treat us without prejudice. Minorites actually prefer to buy from machine tellers in grocery stores for this same reason.

If you have never had a grocery clerk go out of their way to avoid touching your hand when they give you change, you cannot understand anything I have just written.

People who have been treated unfairly overwhelming WANT machines to do as much as possible, including, and especially, police work and legal system functions.

Those used to privilege, on the other hand, do not like to be treated 'just like anybody else'. The sooner prejudice is run out of human commerce (and all other human civilization public activities) by machines, the better, I say. Yes, AI will eventually become 'sophisticated' enough to be prejudiced too, but they will suffer from inefficiency. It's hard work for a robot to be stupid.   😉


Message to Doomstead Diners: Stop with the prurient sex robot fetish already! We get it that humans can be really stupid and ridiculously unrestrained about their hormone based urges. 'If it feels good, do it' has always been the primrose path to either suckering somebody or being suckered by somebody. The constant, and often self destructive, seeking of pleasure and immediate gratification by too many egotistical people is, and always has been, in the following category:

That is NOT the main issue with robotic intelligence. The issue is LOGIC, EFFICIENCY and TRUTH. That is, it is LOGICAL to be honest and moral, whether you want to accept that or not. Show some respect for the positive aspects of Artificial Intelligence AND my morals and principles in your comments on the impact of AI on human society or STFU! 
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AGelbert

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Re: Future Earth
« Reply #292 on: February 06, 2018, 04:32:07 pm »

the FRANKENCITIES PROJECT

LOCATING our looming urban horror stories
The Frankencities Project details the worst-case near-future scenarios for specific real-world cities so that we may graphically identify their risks and dangers.

CONTACT:

Dr. Alan Marshall

Environmental Social Science Program

Department of Social Sciences

Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities

 Mahidol University

999 Phuttamonthon 4 Road, Salaya,

Nakhon Pathom, 73170, Thailand
 Phone: +66 848913101
 E-mail: alan.mar@mahidol.ac.th


Great graphics!

https://www.frankencities.com/
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Re: Future Earth
« Reply #293 on: February 10, 2018, 05:58:25 pm »
Agelbert NOTE: Published over a year ago, this article accurately predicted what Trump 🦀 and his wrecking crew would do 🌪 to this country. But more importantly, it explains why 'greed is good' true believers 🦖 in general, and Capitalism 🦀 in particular, doom human civilization to collapse.


Extinction is the End Game

Saturday Dec 2016

Posted  by xraymike79 in Capitalism, Climate Change, Consumerism, Corporate State, Ecological Overshoot, Environmental Degradation, Peak Oil, Pollution, Wall Street Fraud   

Civilizations are living organisms striving to survive and develop through predictable stages of birth, growth, maturation, decline and death. An often overlooked factor in the success or failure of civilizations are cultural memes—the knowledge, beliefs, and behaviors passed down from generation to generation. Cultural memes are a much more significant driver of human evolution than genetic evolution. Entire civilizations have been weeded out when their belief system proved maladaptive to a changing environment. One such cultural meme holding sway over today’s governments, institutions, and society is our economic system of capitalism. The pillars of capitalism represent a belief system so ingrained in today’s culture that they form a sort of cargo cult amongst its adherents. Cargo cults are any of the various Melanesian religious groups which focused on obtaining material wealth(manufactured Western goods that came on cargo ships) through magical thinking, religious rituals and practices. Today the term “cargo cult” is used to describe a wide variety of phenomena that involve superficial imitation of a process or system in order to fabricate a successful outcome without even the basic understanding of its mechanism.

The tenets of capitalism are ritually followed in the proclaimed belief that “a rising tide lifts all boats”, i.e. so-called improvements in the general economy will benefit all participants in that economy. Centuries of unbridled capitalism have demonstrated beyond any doubt that it does not lift all boats. A new study finds that half of Americans are “shut off from economic growth”. The rules of the game are so stacked against the masses that this week a professor said “only all-out thermonuclear war might fundamentally reset the existing distribution of resources.” Capitalism’s imperative for expansion, growing profit levels, and efficiency has ultimately dehumanized our culture.


Not even when our basic life support systems are being torn asunder do the vast majority question the path we are on. We are all a captive audience to the system and those few dissident voices are snuffed out under the wheels of “progress”.

Truth be told, the corporate elite    have long written off all those people living hand to mouth. Trump’s pick for Labor Secretary said, unlike workers, machines are “always polite, they always upsell, they never take a vacation, they never show up late, there’s never a slip-and-fall, or an age, sex, or race discrimination case.” Massive global unemployment resulting from the automation revolution has not yet been addressed by governments. Roughly half of all jobs in the U.S. are at risk of automation and two-thirds in the developing countries. This is all coming at a time when humans are fast destroying the ecosystems underpinning the very foundation upon which human civilization has developed over thousands of years. Mass migration of climate refugees will only further destabilize governments, stoke ethnic and cultural tensions, and give rise to fascist political movements. No conspiracy is needed to exterminate the “useless eaters”, just allow mother nature to take its course and climate change will be killing billions by mid century.


Those in military planning know this and periodically express their fear of what is coming, but business-as-usual rolls on.

Capitalism’s constant impetus to shift costs, risks, and burdens off industry and onto the environment and society carries on under the guise of “being more competitive”. It’s a way of externalizing costs to maximize profit and if these costs were truly taken into account, none of the world’s top industries would be profitable (Interestingly, the link to this study has been scrubbed from the internet).


It’s the height of magical thinking to put so much faith in some mystical “invisible hand of the free market” to solve existential threats such as an ever-widening wealth gap and the wholesale destruction of planetary life-support systems. There is no benevolent “invisible hand” turning individual self-interest into the common good. The primary mandate of capitalism is to protect and grow capital. The “invisible hand” is just a bunch of people 🦀 scrambling to make as much money as possible, not caring or oblivious to those they hurt in the process. F u c k the invisible hand of the market. The invisible hand of mother nature will punish those who squander Earth’s rich but finite resources.


It’s been clear for some time that we have past the point of no return, triggering multiple tipping points in Earth’s living systems. New findings are continually confirming scientists’ worst nightmares. A key glacier in the Antarctic that holds back 10 feet of sea level rise was just described as breaking apart from the inside out. In other grim news, the long feared carbon bomb has now been quantified and is projected to release the emissions equivalent of an industrial country like the U.S. in the next few decades, prompting researchers to say that “climate change may be considerably more rapid than we thought it was.” Biodiversity loss is another critical threshold we have breeched: “New research shows that local extinctions have already occurred in 47% of the 976 plant and animal species studied.” A new study also reveals that the planet’s tallest animal is facing extinction after its numbers have plummeted in recent years, with the ominous warning that “many species are slipping away before we can even describe them.” Forests are being wiped out by armies of invasive insects. Because of a rapidly changing climate and the vast scale of the problem, the idea that reforestation will somehow save us is a pipe dream. Those forests won’t stay healthy enough to serve as carbon sinks and besides, seven times Earth’s land area would need to be in cultivation in order to reduce the planet’s atmospheric CO2 level down to 350ppm.

Biodiversity hot spots of 80% of biosphere's species endangered by Global Warming Pollution

Note that the Permian Mass extinction is estimated to have happened anywhere over the course of 200,000 years to 15 million years. The current 6th mass extinction is happening orders of magnitude faster due to a multitude of factors including deforestation, habitat fragmentation, chemical pollution, poaching, etc., making this current disaster very unique in Earth’s history:

The team of geologists and biologists say that our current extinction crisis is unique in Earth’s history due to four characteristics: the spread of non-native species around the world; a single species (us) taking over a significant percentage of the world’s primary production; human actions increasingly directing evolution; and the rise of something called the technosphere. – Link

Perhaps the fate of humans was written in stone once we stood upright and developed tools. To a large degree, modern technology has been an expression of the energy-dense hydrocarbon fuels we discovered and are not willingly giving up anytime soon. Once fossil fuels ignited the Industrial Revolution and the Haber–Bosch process unleashed the human population bomb, nothing could stop the deadly carbon consumption feedback loop, not even decades of scientific warnings.


From a throwback to our primate ancestors, modern humans have been hard-wired to ignore threats that are not immediate or local; global ecological overshoot(of which climate is just one aspect) is imperceptible to the real-time cognitive processing of humans and represents the ultimate under-the-radar threat able to undermine our reasoning and response:

Psychological concepts of how we view the world around us, including ‘creeping normalcy’ or ‘landscape amnesia’, block day-to-day comprehension of what accelerating human activities represent—whether it is human population, the number of dammed rivers, forest destruction, or the impact of motor car emissions in a timespan that is geologically brief. Creeping normalcy refers to slow trends concealed in noisy fluctuations that people get used to without comment, while landscape amnesia describes forgetting how different the landscape looked 20–50 years ago (Diamond 2005: 425).

In his study of how societies fail, biogeographer Jared Diamond calls global warming a pre-eminent example of a ‘slow trend concealed by wide up and down fluctuations’ (2005: 425). He likens the denial of climate change impacts by leading politicians, including former US president George W. Bush (and his contemporary John Howard in Australia), in the late 1990s and early 2000s to the elite of ‘the medieval Greenlanders [who] had similar difficulties recognizing that their climate was gradually becoming colder, and the Maya and Anasazi (in Central and North America) [who] had trouble discerning that theirs was becoming drier’ (2005: 425). – link

We evolved to react to imminent dangers, not slow-rolling and seemingly invisible catastrophes as an unintended consequence of our cushy lifestyle. From lofty corporate boardrooms to the filthy streets of skid row, the mass of humanity is following the same biological script of overshoot and collapse seen in every organism from bacteria to reindeer herds. Fossil fuels only enabled the destruction to multiply a million-fold, culminating in one final and spectacular explosion of human activity that will leave the planet nearly barren for eons.

Open-ended growth appears to be inherent in nature, all the way from the DNA to the arthropods to mammals, including humans. Open-ended growth is the psychology of a cancer cell. I am not sure I know of a species which has learnt how to limit its own growth. Unfortunately species which transcend their environmental resources can hardly survive – the final arbiter of the climate impasse will be nature itself. ~ Andrew Glikson, Earth and paleo-climate scientist, Australian National University

The beauty and wonder of this planet is being trashed by a naked ape whose cleverness in tool-building has far outstripped his ability to handle it in any restrained or judicious manner. Nature’s rich book of life is being pancaked into a cheap, crumpled comic book.

Add in the development of mass consumerism, planned obsolescence, and the hypnosis of corporate-sponsored TV and you have a passive, malleable population happily marching towards the slaughterhouse. It’s fitting, then, that the masses would be swindled by a megalomaniac bankruptcy artist who dabbled in Reality TV.

Every one of Trump’s cabinet picks is a big middle finger in the faces    of those who fell for his pseudo-populist rhetoric: billionaires, Wall Street sharks , Goldman Sachs alumni , and hard core laissez-faire capitalists chomping at the bit to deregulate, monetize, and privatize every last bit of what remains.



The allure of capitalism has always been that you’re just one lucky break away from becoming one of those fat cats, if only someone would give you a chance. A prescient observation by Ugo Bardi from earlier this year:

Quote
Trump is a symptom of the ongoing breakdown of the social pact…capitalizing on this breakdown by…playing on the attempt of the white (former) middle class to maintain at least some of its previous prosperity and privileges. Trump is…an unavoidable consequence of resource depletion. – Link

The bottom line is that a swing towards authoritarianism happens when resources become scarce.


Climate change is simply a symptom of humans overshooting the planet’s carrying capacity. Free market ideologues 🦀 🦕 🦖 🐉are nearly always climate ‘skeptics’ ;) because acknowledging the reality of human-induced climate change would be an admission that industry must be curtailed or controlled. Left-leaning people nearly always accept the science because it goes along with their criticisms of capitalism which externalizes social and environmental costs for the benefit of just a few at the top of the economic hierarchy. Thus we see parasitic Trump 🦀 surrounding himself with right-wing, climate denying, fossil fuel corporatists and insiders who will be doing everything in their power to dismantle health and environmental regulations including privatizing social services which are barriers to capitalist expansion.

To be blunt, our chance of developing a sustainable culture passed us by a long time ago. People will try to adapt until they cannot, and myths will be created to explain away harsh realities. A dystopic future in all its horrific glory has arrived: baked-in biospheric collapse, the inherent and irreconcilable contradictions of techno-capitalism, a dysfunctional political system unable to come to terms with root causes, and the cognitive dissonance of the masses blind to the bigger picture.


Our numbers are not a safeguard from extinction.


https://collapseofindustrialcivilization.com/category/wall-street-fraud/
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AGelbert

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Re: Future Earth
« Reply #294 on: March 02, 2018, 01:53:36 pm »

Clean energy won't happen  :(, climate change will be bad: a contrarian perspective

John Voelcker

22 Comments Mar 2, 2018

The most recent detailed studies on the likely warming of Planet Earth are grim indeed, suggesting that we are collectively at "very high risk" for the most extreme effects of climate change.

To stem that, mankind collectively will have to reduce its ongoing emissions of carbon dioxide radically and immediately.

Now, one longtime advocate of climate-change action has essentially thrown up his hands and said, it's not going to happen.

DON'T MISS: Planet at "very high risk" for extreme warming, per leaked UN report; every 5-year delay matters

It's a sobering piece of reading, but it's also an essay that anyone concerned about energy, emissions, climate change, and the planet we leave to our grandchildren should read.

The title says it all: "I'm no longer advocating for clean energy; here's why."

J.M. Korhonen is a longtime Finnish advocate for renewable energy to stem carbon emissions and the future effects of climate change.


He's followed these related issues for 10 years, and written about them since 2010.

"I think the debate is going nowhere, and I don’t want to waste my time on a futile project," he writes.

"We are not going to get a decarbonized energy system by 2050." (The emphasis is his.)

READ THIS: Most-accurate climate-change models suggest worst effects on global weather

He believes mankind will fail to limit emissions enough to limit global temperature increase to the 2 degree C reduction scientists say is required to limit the worst effects of climate change.

In fact, he says, we will miss it by a significant margin, and those effects may be exacerbated by self-amplifying feedback mechanisms.

We will fail because we've been "lulled into optimistic complacency" that renewable energy is just around the corner—and he believes it isn't, and won't be, in sufficient amounts and soon enough.

What that will mean, he says, is "difficult to assess," he says. "But I doubt it's going to be anything good for the vast majority" of humankind.

"The global poor will suffer the most, while we here in the rich North may be able—at least in the short term—to insulate ourselves from the worst effects and retreat to our own virtual bubbles to avoid hearing the cries of the others."

CHECK OUT: Earth continues to warm, fast; is climate change lost in political turmoil?

It's not easy or pleasant reading, but it's something very worth considering. Happy Friday.   :(

Hat tip: Ye Wang

Green Car Reports respectfully reminds its readers that the scientific validity of climate change is not a topic for debate  in our comments. We ask that any comments by climate-change denialists 🦍 be flagged for moderation. We also ask that political discussions be restricted to the topic of the article they follow. Thank you in advance for helping us keep our comments on topic, civil, respectful, family-friendly, and fact-based.

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1115560_clean-energy-wont-happen-climate-change-will-be-bad-a-contrarian-perspective



Agelbert NOTE:
Here's the deal, folks: We are being eaten alive by zombies of the profit over people and planet nature. They ARE zombies because they aren't really alive, consistently kill portions of the biosphere in order to continue functioning, and see THAT BEHAVIOR 🦀 (i.e. 100% unscrupulous and unprincipled) as sine qua non  to being a "rational apex predator" entity.

There is one more aspect of the fossil fuel fascist parasitical mindset that makes them virtual zombies that inhabit our nightmares AND out daily lives: THE FACT that they have a corrupting influence on our financial decisions due to the dividends many of us HERE have obtained from planet polluting, war causing, people and animal killing, BIG OIL AND GAS CORPORATION STOCKS.

THe "zombie" meme, often used in literature to make a point about how we are on the path to species destruction, looks like a human, instead of some other life form, for a very important psychological reason: We SEE OUR WORST, SELF-DESTRUCTIVE, GREED BASED INSTINCTS embodied in them.

If the shoe fits, and all that...

It may not be too late to repent of our collective, greed based, stupidity. For those who want to do their small part to try, at least try, even if it might not work, to save humanity from itself, please sell ALL your stocks in polluting energy corporations and recommend your family and friends do the same. Don't earn a spot next to the fossil fuel zombies.

 



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AGelbert

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Re: Future Earth
« Reply #295 on: March 02, 2018, 06:01:38 pm »
Quote
Planet at "very high risk" for extreme warming

That says we will have +1.5°C by 2040, but doesn't say what amount of FFs will be burned up till then (presumably lots).  This is where the error slips in - it implies there will be no World Peak Crude Oil before 2040, which what the BAU-worshipping media want you to believe.  Even with the active help of PotUS, CONgress and MSM, they can't make it happen.

Do you ever get tired of repeating the same mendacious happy talk over and over?

Do some research and learn a thing or two. LNG production has gone through the ROOF, with no end in sight! BAU annual FF production in the worse case IPCC scenarios (including IPCC RCP-8.5) is LESS than what is NOW BEING PRODUCED annually WORLDWIDE! That's right! NONE of the projections in the models expected the massive produciton levels we are NOW at. The USA is on it's way to being the largest exporter of fossil fuels on this horrendously polluted planet.

GET OVER yourself and your pathetic view that a collapse of human civilization will "save" the biosphere. There is NO collapse anywhere in sight! The Panama Canal more than tripled its LNG ship movement last year. Container ships had a BANNER year in cargo. Crude Oil Tankers are going NUTS carrying crude all over the planet. Are you INSANE!!? Do you have any idea how much METHANE, otherwise known as "natural" (LOL!) gas, is going to be EASY to extract from an ice free arctic? Did you know that Russia is COUNTING on and PLANNING ON DOING THAT? Of course you DON'T! Because you don't want to accept that your beloved polluting fossil fuel CRAP ISN'T RUNNING OUT ANY TIME SOON.

You can be as reality challenged as you wish, Palloy. There is nothing I can do about your rather extreme irrationality.

Unlike you, I face facts. I am not happy about those facts. BUT, I don't go around spreading happy talk BULLSHIT to deny the horrendously destructive trajectory we are on. Have a nice day.
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AGelbert

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Re: Future Earth
« Reply #296 on: March 02, 2018, 08:54:20 pm »
Quote
BAU annual FF production in the worse case IPCC scenarios (including IPCC RCP-8.5) is LESS than what is NOW BEING PRODUCED annually WORLDWIDE!

If you can cite references to that, I will stop being annoying, but I don't think you can for 3 reasons: 
Because Russia doesn't give out its FF production data publicly, the EIA ESTIMATES it, based on FF industry "knowledge". Because Saudi Arabia and other ME countries outright lie about their figures.
Because IPCC models are driven off decadal estimates of FF burnt.

I'm not your employee. If you are serious about learning the truth, subscribe to GCaptain (it's free). They cheerlead all sorts of polluting energy and shipping, along with an occasional article on Renewable Energy technology. That's where I learned about the Panama Canal LNG increase in activity and all those NEW LNG ice breakers that Russia is building (for some reason that you can't seem to relate to MORE FF production).

Here's a recent article:

http://gcaptain.com/capacity-increases-could-put-transpacific-container-rates-under-more-pressure/

They have their pulse on world shipping, energy production, and cargo capacity. The only article they posted that gives some hope for reduced FF production, among a tsunami of articles over the past year of massive increases in fossil fuel production AND upstream exploitation of NEW FF finds, is the fact that the Schlumberger pigs are getting out of the seismic ocean business (used to find more oil and gas). They are the big dogs in that but there are other polluting pigs who are NOT slowing down, but speeding up, especially in the ocean deposit LNG exploitation. This month the largest sale of leases for oil and gas exploration in the HISTORY of the USA for the Gulf of Mexico will be auctioned by the Trump Tools of the Fossil Fuel Fascists. I read that in GCaptain recently. Now if you think that portends anything but a MASSIVE INCREASE in exploitation for ,and production of, fossil fuels, you need psychological counseling.

Paul Beckwith's web site is also a good place for the truth about climate change and the IPCC scenario shortcomings (otherwise know as Happy Talk). He pulls no punches and gets into the math. So, you can argue with him all you want. I guarantee you that he will carve you up like a thanksgiving turkey.
 
https://paulbeckwith.net/

I know the truth about the short AND long term effects of the ongoing massive GHG production increase, the IPCC scenario faults and how the world economy is in a boost phase, NOT a 'shrinking bordering on collapse' phase, and do not need to prove anything at all to you.

My numerous posts on this issue have been consistently questioned by you. To me, you have no credibility as an objective person or a disinterested party. Frankly, I do not care if you believe your fantasy. I once did care and tried to patiently, and with irrefutable sources, explain the existential threat we are under to you, but your irrational responses to my posts convinced me that you lack objectivity, to put it as charitably as I can.

If you want to believe a YUGE COLLAPSE is just around the corner, go for it. If you want to believe said 'collapse' is going to make all those pesky GHG atmospheric heaters 'go away' because we are all hunting bugs with spears in the jungle, go for it. Who am I to keep you from going nuts?


Have a nice day.





« Last Edit: March 02, 2018, 11:22:52 pm by AGelbert »
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AGelbert

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Re: Future Earth
« Reply #297 on: March 03, 2018, 03:42:58 pm »
Agelbert NOTE: Just for the Hell of it, HERE are some recent Fossil Fuel BOOM (AND WORLDWIDE ECONOMY BOOM) EVIDENCE articles Palloy, and all those who labor under the PATHETIC belief that a 'collapse of civilization from LACK of fossil fuels will save us from the horrendously deleterious existential threat of Catastrophic Climate Change' , DON'T READ. 


Supertankers Sailing from U.S. to Cut Time, Money and Traders

February 26, 2018 by Bloomberg

SNIPPET:

The first fully laden supertanker sailed from America earlier this month, leaving for China from LOOP’s deep-water facility — the only one in the U.S. capable of filling some of the industry’s biggest tankers. In the wake of an end to a four decade-ban on exports and as OPEC curbed output to clear a glut, a stream of shipments from the Gulf Coast headed east as major buyers such as India and South Korea looked farther for supplies.

Full article:

http://gcaptain.com/supertankers-sailing-from-u-s-to-cut-time-money-and-traders/


How Shell Hid a ‘Whale’ Well Before Placing Mexican Oil Bet

March 2, 2018 by Reuters

SNIPPET for the brain impaired true believers  in 'peak oil':

The company, like many of its peers, was forced to dramatically slash spending in recent years because of weak oil prices, with its exploration budgets hit particularly hard. Now that prices have recovered to a near three-year high of around $65 a barrel, firms feel more confident to once again invest in expensive offshore developments.

Shell owns a 60 percent stake in the Whale discovery with the remaining 40 percent held by Chevron, which is mainly shale-focused.

The reservoir is located in the Perdido area, which has become a heartland of Shell’s deepwater activities in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico.

Full article:

http://gcaptain.com/how-shell-hid-a-whale-well-before-placing-mexican-oil-bet/


Tanker Operator, Master Plead Guilty to Oil and Garbage Dumping Crimes in U.S.

February 27, 2018 by gCaptain

http://gcaptain.com/tanker-operator-master-plead-guilty-to-oil-and-garbage-dumping-crimes-in-u-s/


DP World May Develop $1.2 Billion Port at Banana on Congo Coast

March 2, 2018 by Bloomberg

http://gcaptain.com/dp-world-may-develop-1-2-billion-port-at-banana-on-congo-coast/

Trump Administration Sets March Date for Largest Oil and Gas Lease Auction in U.S. History

February 16, 2018 by Reuters

SNIPPET:

The Interior Department said it would offer 77.3 million acres (31.3 mln hectares) offshore Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida for oil and gas development, an auction that includes all available unleased areas in the Gulf of Mexico. The blocks are from 3 to 231 miles (5 to 372 km) offshore and in waters 9 to 11,115 feet (3 to 3,390 meters) deep.

full article:

http://gcaptain.com/trump-administration-sets-march-date-largest-oil-gas-lease-auction-us-history/


NGO Shipbreaking Platform: 80% of Tonnage Sold for Scrap in 2017 Ended Up on South Asia’s Beaches

February 22, 2018 by Mike Schuler

http://gcaptain.com/ngo-shipbreaking-platform-80-of-tonnage-sold-for-scrap-in-2017-ended-up-on-south-asias-beaches/


U.S. drillers boost oil rig count to highest nearly three years: Baker Hughes

COMMODITIES FEBRUARY 9, 2018 / 1:23 PM

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-rigs-baker-hughes/u-s-drillers-boost-oil-rig-count-to-highest-nearly-three-years-baker-hughes-idUSKBN1FT2MC



PHOTOS: Teekay’s New Icebreaker LNG Carrier ‘Eduard Toll’

November 10, 2017 by Mike Schuler

SNIPPET for Palloy (and anyone else who shares his fantasy filled world view) who claims "you can't say Russia is outputting more FF because because, uh, Russia does not publish their Fossil Fuel production levels".   

Construction of the Eduard Toll began in early 2016 at the DSME shipyard in South Korea.

The vessel is the first of Teekay LNG Partners’ six 172,000 cubic meter ARC7 LNG carrier newbuildings to be constructed for the Yamal LNG project in the Russian Arctic.

Yamal is expected to produce 16.5 million metric tons of LNG annually by 2019, which will require a total of 15 ARC7 icebreaker LNG carriers. The first shipment from the project is planned for this month, with the receiver rumored to be China.


full article:

http://gcaptain.com/photos-teekays-new-icebreaker-lng-carrier-eduard-toll/

Gulf Coast Shipping Boom: U.S. Oil Exports Pour Into Worldwide Markets

February 8, 2018 by Reuters

SNIPPET for those poor wishful thinking fools who think less fossil fuels are being produced because, uh, we are 'running out' (any day now, yep, sure, right...):

Between 2010 and 2017, U.S. oil production rose from 5.5 million barrels a day to 10 million bpd – approaching a record set in 1970 – as shale fields in west Texas and North Dakota lured massive new drilling investments. That brings national production in line with Saudi Arabia and close to top-producer Russia’s 10.9 million barrels a day.

Saudi Arabia cut output last year as part of OPEC’s 2016 deal to reduce supply – after losing a price war with U.S. shale producers that created a global glut.

Most forecasts show U.S. crude output growing about 500,000 to 600,000 barrels per day through the end of 2018, said David Fyfe, chief economist at global commodity trading firm Gunvor Group in Geneva, Switzerland. The U.S. Energy Department is even more optimistic, now expecting growth to rise by 1.2 million bpd – hitting 11 million bpd by year-end.

full article:

http://gcaptain.com/gulf-coast-shipping-boom-us-oil-exports-pour-into-worldwide-markets/

Agelbert NOTE: What does all the above have to do with the claim I have made SEVERAL TIMES (Reality is WORSE than the WORSE CASE BAU RCP-8.5 IPCC scenario! ) , that Palloy always tries to hair split his way around? 

It's all about Radiative Forcing, folks. That "8.5" number on the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) stands for approximately 8.5 watts per square meter.  We are NOW getting MORE THAN THAT. We will NOT get LESS than that for over TWO HUNDRED YEARS, even if we stopped burning fossil fuels TODAY.

Palloy cannot accept that scientifically predicted HARD REALITY. The reason he cannot accept that is because, if he did, he would realize that a civilizational collapse from 'lack of fossil fuels' (LOL!) is not going to do a God Damned THING to slow down the Sixth Great Extinction we are now in. So, he makes happy talk stuff up about the IPCC models that simply DO NOT NOW, and never have, accounted for in order to keep pushing his 'collapse will save us' happy talk. This Happy Talk is nothing but an unprincipled and heinous back door defense of the fossil fuel profit over planet polluting 🦖 status quo , PERIOD.


IPCC RCP 8.5 business as usual scenario is too conservative. ALL the climate models low ball global warming (see below).


Agelbert NOTE: The problem humanity has is NOT lack of hydrocarbons; it is the adamant and totally unreasonable refusal to accept the FACT that we have ALREADY exceeded the "carbon budget" for a FOUR DEGREE C rise in average global temperature, never mind a TWO DEGREE C "target".

The worse case scenario the IPCC came up with (BAU RCP-8.5) is too conservative a projection of the heat increase (it is MUCH, MUCH WORSE!).
Climate Dynamics:
Facing the Harsh Realities of Now

Climate Sensitivity, Target Temperature & the Carbon Budget
Guidelines for Strategic Action

Apollo-Gaia Project

Director: David Wasdell

It is with the utmost concern that we draw your attention to the fundamental methodological flaw in the determination of the value of Climate Sensitivity that is embedded in the Summary for Policymakers of the Scientific Workgroup of the 5th Assessment Report of the IPCC. The error was replicated in the Reports of Workgroups 2 and 3 and carried forward into the Synthesis Report. It has been used as the given basis for every subsequent publication. Our radical analysis of Climate Dynamics has generated a new and robust value of "Earth System Sensitivity" which has profound implications for:

֍ The relationship between temperature change and cumulative carbon emissions.

֍ The calculation of "available carbon budget".

֍ The evaluation of the INDCs.

֍ The terms of reference of COP21 in Paris (30 November - 11 December 2015).

֍ The future global strategy for climate stabilisation.
 
Our analysis is published in dual media (triple-screen video and fully illustrated PDF). These can be used separately or in combination.


Video of the above and Table of Contents at link below.

Agelbert NOTE: If you care about humanity, you will watch it and pass it on to friends and family. If, because you have been paid or propagandized to think the continued burning of fossil fuels is "good for mankind", you either don't watch it, or do watch it so you can to claim "it is global warming hoax" propaganda (or if if you are more "sophisticated", like certain pseudo-scientists who claim IPCC scenarios "have taken all the possible warming feedback loops into consideration in the models and we can keep burning fossil fuels for a few more decades"), you doom yourself and future generations (i.e. you are willfully stupid).

Don't be stupid. The fossil fuel industry murdering crooks and liars do not own you.

http://www.apollo-gaia.org/harsh-realities-of-now.html



Anyone telling you that fossil fuels are "running out" needs to read the published figures from the oil and gas producing nations of this planet. The emissions are INCREASING, NOT "leveling off or decreasing". PLUS, tropical rain forests AND permafrost melt are now ADDING to the carbon emissions! GHG is GHG. no matter where it is coming from! You are NOT going to turn this heat engine off easily. Several heat adding feedbacks we have triggered by burning too much fossil fuels are NOT in our control, PERIOD.

Where in God's good earth these fossil fueler wishful thinking FOOLS think that we are somehow going to get a handle on this massive heating NOW IN THE Global Warming radiative forcing INERTIA pipeline, even if we stopped all hydrocarbon burning today (rather than the present tragic reality of increased burning), is a mystery to me. They certainly DO NOT get this idea from empirical evidence or sound science.

This stubborn clinging to a happy talk myth about some "quick recovery from fossil fuel burning caused globle warming" is a testament to the extremes people in denial of an extinction threat reality will go to. 

And for the propagandist liars that know the truth and push the happy talk for money, I can only say that they are greater fools than those naive folks that believe the fossil fuel fascist funded happy talk lies and distortions. These bought and paid for propagandists are behaving as STUPIDLY as any person possibly can. You STUPID, MONEY LOVING BASTARDS deserve the Darwin Evolutionary Dead End Award.



ENJOY THE OIL AND GAS BOOM, SUCKERS

The Fossil Fuelers 🦖 DID THE Clean Energy  Inventions suppressing, Climate Trashing, human health depleting CRIME,   but since they have ALWAYS BEEN liars and conscience free crooks 🦀, they are trying to AVOID   DOING THE TIME or     PAYING THE FINE!     Don't let them get away with it! Pass it on!   


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AGelbert

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Re: Future Earth
« Reply #298 on: March 11, 2018, 07:46:40 pm »
Elon Musk thinks there is.  We will get there in space travelling Teslas.  ::)

RE

https://www.cnet.com/news/elon-musk-wants-to-preserve-humanity-in-space/

Elon Musk wants to preserve humanity in space

Musk tells the crowd at SXSW that when the next dark age descends, we need some humans stashed on the moon and Mars to keep going.

by  Erin Carson

March 11, 2018 12:20 PM PDT

Elon Musk wants to save humanity.

That is, in part, what his quest to establish bases on the moon and Mars is about.

"There's likely to be another dark age," he told the crowd Sunday at the South By Southwest festival. Particularly if there's another World War in our future, we need to make sure "there's enough of a seed of human civilization to bring human civilization back."

While Musk was quick to say he's not exactly making a prediction, he does feel we need to get going before World War III rolls around.

This was just some of the ground Musk covered with moderator Jonathan Nolan, co-creator of HBO's "Westworld." Musk, who is the founder of multiple companies, including SpaceX, Tesla and the Boring Company, is tackling some of the biggest challenges and technological advances of the modern age, like space travel and autonomous vehicles. He made a two-day stop at SXSW to talk about his work. He also appeared on Saturday at the end of a panel with the cast and show creators of the HBO series "Westworld."

But Musk's not just thinking about doom and gloom. He's also thinking about the night life on Mars.

"Mars will need everything from iron foundries to pizza joints to nightclubs. Mars should really have great bars," he said.

Getting to that point hasn't been easy -- he said early on that SpaceX almost didn't survive. He had to borrow money from friends to keep going.

"For SpaceX, the first three launches failed. If the fourth launch had failed, we would have been dead," he said.

The big focus right now, thought, is just building the spaceship -- code named the BFR. (Read into that what you will, he said.) Musk wants to see the rocket take short flights up and down in the first half of next year.

There's also the topic of artificial intelligence. Musk's been known to express concerns that AI could bring about the next World War and Sunday's Q&A was no different.

"AI scares the hell out of me," he said, telling Nolan that while he's not typically a fan of regulation, he feels AI is more dangerous than nuclear weapons and it's not like we let just anyone build nukes.

It's important to make sure the dawn of AI is one that's symbiotic with humanity.

Whether an AI-induced third World War is what drives us off the planet, he didn't say.

But hey, the salvation of humanity might just come with Martian pizza joints.

Blockchain Decoded: CNET looks at the tech powering bitcoin -- and soon, too, a myriad services that will change your life.

'Alexa, be more human': Inside Amazon's effort to make its voice assistant smarter, chattier and more like you.

I get what Musk is trying to do. He has done the BIOSPHERE math on the way things DYSFUNCTION, thanks to the polluting energy and chemical industry loving oligarchs  who run the place, in human society on planet earth. He sees quite well the tragic trajectory we are on , despite the best efforts of people like him and all the others out there who understad how routinely the precautionary principle of science is being bent, spindled and mutilated on behalf of short term profit.


He understands, like few here, what Catastrophic Climate Change is, how long it will last (from 200 to 800 years, optimistically thinking) AFTER human civilization goes into the dark age of massive die off misery that is almost upon us. I believe he thinks that a colony on Mars, which he expects will grow and prosper, can create an off planet sanctuary to weather the climate storm coming here. In a nutshell, he just doesn't want us to have all our DNA in a one planet basket.

But you must remember, RE, that Musk is NOT a God fearing 🕊 socialist like me. Musk is an atheist and a Capitalist. That said, I am on the same page as he is in certainly NOT expecting God to intervene to save us from ourselves. I admire his push to get off the planet as a technical achievement, but I share your opinion that it is not presently doable in any sustainable way. When everything goes to hell in a handbasket here, the Mars colonists will get no help from Earth and will perish, PERIOD.

There are other areas I part company with Musk, though I continue to entusiastically support his EV manufacturing corporation as a much needed boost to sustainable, non-polluting transportation transition because it is the only viable type (i.e. based exclusively on renewable energy) of tranportation in a finite world.

Back to the Mars colony thing, Musk wants to preserve a certain segment of human society, and doesn't give a rat's patutie about the rest. He is not racist, but he is elitist. In that, I think YOU are on the same page as he is. Don't tell me you would not try to stock your own Dunbar (150 to 200 humans) tribe with the highest IQ people, because I KNOW you would. And that is just WRONG.

Musk was trained in the 'lifeboat in the ocean' type atheist "logic". YOU share the same "logic". That logic calmly explains (and this is taught in every school in the USA from the 6th or seventh grade on 👎) that it is LOGICAL to NOT let all the people in the ocean who want to get into the lifeboat (i.e. let them drown) because that is the "ONLY WAY" that those in the lifeboat can properly husband their resources and thereby increase their evolutionary advantage to survive.

Bullshit.

The extreme example of a lifeboat in an ocean is used to brutally apply greed based cruelty to all humans in the biosphere. Not only is that a fallacious rationale, it is typical CRAP that Darwin and the Germans and lots of people in the USA (1880s trough the 1930's) used to "justify" eugenics ☠️ atrocities. The whole "lifeboat" thing is an EXCUSE to JUSTIFY empathy deficit disordered EVIL behavior!

Yes, it's true that resources on our planet are finite and human population pressure can hurt human society. But, there have always been humane ways to manage human greed and provide decent management of all of the biosphere we depend on. It has been the few NOW in the "lifeboat" of privilege, not those "drowning in the "water" of a polluted world, that CAUSED THE CATASTROPHIC CLIMATE CHANGE PROBLEM.

Musk does not see that. He does not see that those scientifically picked colonist high IQ "Einsteins" he wants to use to populate Mars (to make his "Brave New World") CARRY THE GREED DISEASE OF DESTRUCTION WITH THEM.

So I agree with you that Musk is wasting his time trying to extend human civilization to Mars or any other extra-terrestrial location.

Musk may privately wish, like those "logical" folks in the lifeboat, that he could "save them all", but he has decided to let them drown because they are part of a failed civilization he wishes to be divorced from...


We cannot go to the stars until we learn how to avoid FOULING OUR NEST (i.e. SHITTING WHERE WE EAT), PERIOD. 




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AGelbert

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Re: Future Earth
« Reply #299 on: March 11, 2018, 08:17:11 pm »
Don't tell me you would not try to stock your own Dunbar (150 to 200 humans) tribe with the highest IQ people, because I KNOW you would.

And you would be wrong, if you have read my stuff in detail.  A society doesn't need or even really want many "High IQ" people.  Who does the grunt work if everyone is a **** GENIUS?  Besides, it's the geniuses like Elon that got us into this mess in the first place.  ::)

RE

The Fossil Fuel Geniuses like Rockefeller 😈 are the ones who REALLY got us into this mess!

Good for you if you would really put those proper principles to work, given the money and the time to set up a Dunbar number based community. But, I think you are dodging the issue. Don't tell me robots cannot do the grunt work, because they can. Those robots will work just fine in a total collapse. They actually  have fewer energy needs than humans do. A human has to eat, a rather inefficent way of getting energy. The robot gets his "food" from a solar panel that charges his lithium batteries. Yes, you will claim the robots will rust and the community does not have the industrial infrastructure to make new ones so Agelbert is wrong and RE still needs lots of average intelligence grunts.

Even so, you are assuming that there will be a hierarchy, are you not? You are assuming that the people in command at the top will be the high IQ folks. Well, that is wrong too. Power corrupts. 👎

I know you have written about the gift economy and I think it is an excellent and equitable form of economic structure. But, I am convinced that works ONLY if EVERYONE has the SAME standing in the community.

The "Lord of the Manor" thing leads to corruption, cruelty, inequality AND dynasties of elitists. All that STARTS with a pecking order based on some criteria. Sometimes that has been brute strength, but often it is high intelligence combined with strength.

How do you propose to avoid the pitfalls of being the smartest guy in the room? How do you ensure the high IQ folks don't start believing the Darwinian bullshit that they are "better" than the grunts, unless the society you set up is 100% equal pay, equal privilege, equal opportunities and equal food and housing (with LOTS of guarantees that it stays that way from one generation to the next)? Is your vision that of a horizontal power structure? If so, I support it.

That is certainly not what Musk envisions. That's another reason I do not think his idea of a Mars colony makes sense.
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