+- +-

+-User

Welcome, Guest.
Please login or register.
 
 
 
Forgot your password?

+-Stats ezBlock

Members
Total Members: 53
Latest: Jesuscepsy
New This Month: 1
New This Week: 0
New Today: 0
Stats
Total Posts: 16222
Total Topics: 264
Most Online Today: 4
Most Online Ever: 201
(December 08, 2019, 11:34:38 pm)
Users Online
Members: 0
Guests: 1
Total: 1

Author Topic: COVID-19 🏴☠️ Pandemic  (Read 14810 times)

0 Members and 0 Guests are viewing this topic.

AGelbert

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 33007
  • Location: Colchester, Vermont
    • Renwable Revolution
This illustration, created at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), reveals ultrastructural morphology exhibited by coronaviruses.

PREPARING FOR THE INEVITABLE CORONAVIRUS DISEASE 2019 OUTBREAK
February 26, 2020/316 Comments/in emptywheel /by Jim White

Jim here.

I am quite late to getting to a post on the new coronavirus, but headlines yesterday finally forced me to move ahead and gather info today. First, watch this incredibly informative video from the World Health Organization. It gives very good information on the biology of the virus and what’s going on in the outbreak:


Although 🦀 Donald Trump and his 😈 media partners have been denying that Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a real cause for concern, there were multiple statements yesterday from US health officials that ranged from quite alarming to somewhat more reassuring. The announcements were summarized well by the Washington Post. Perhaps the most attention was paid to portions of what Dr. Nancy Messonnier provided in a telephone briefing yesterday morning. Dr. Messonnier is the Director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. A recording of the briefing and a full transcript can be found here.

Of most note from the briefing is when Messonnier stated:

Quote
Ultimately, we expect we will see community spread in this country.  It’s not so much a question of if this will happen anymore but rather more a question of exactly when this will happen and how many people in this country will have severe illness.

So, yes, spread of COVID-19 in the US is inevitable. Messonnier continued, discussing what can be done to try to contain the disease. Because there’s no vaccine or specific treatment for the virus, control has to be through what is termed non-pharmaceutical interventions or NPIs:

Quote
There are three categories of NPIs.  Personal NPIs which include personal protective measures you can take every day and personal protective measures reserved for pandemics.  Community NPIs which include social distancing measures designed to keep people who are sick away from others.  And school closures and dismissals.  And environmental NPIs which includes surface cleaning measures.

It’s in the category of potential community NPIs where the biggest concerns start to appear:

Quote
Now I’d like to talk through some examples of what community NPIs look like.  These are practical measures that can help limit exposure by reducing exposure in community settings.  Students in smaller groups or in a severe pandemic, closing schools and using internet-based teleschooling to continue education.  For adults, businesses can replace in-person meetings with video or telephone conferences and increase teleworking options.  On a larger scale, communities may need to modify, postpone, or cancel mass gatherings.

Messonnier expanded on the disruptions:

Quote
Secondary consequences of some of these measures might include missed work and loss of income.  I understand this whole situation may seem overwhelming and that disruption to everyday life may be severe. But these are things that people need to start thinking about now.

So, yes, there may well be significant disruptions to everyday life in parts of the US. We of course don’t know when this would occur, or where in the US it would be. But this is a good time to start thinking about how a disruption to moving around for a couple of weeks would affect you. Here in Florida, we regularly have to prepare for a week or more of loss of electricity during hurricane season. Preparing for community control measures would be a bit different. Right now, my thoughts for our household are that I will stockpile a few extra large cuts of meat in the freezer. These are things I’d eventually use anyway, so it won’t hurt to have them around. I’ll increase a few of the pantry items that I wouldn’t otherwise increase until the start of hurricane season. I’ll beef up my supplies for baking bread. If a disruption starts looking more likely locally, I’ll even add some frozen veggies to my stockpile, but for now I’m going to rely mostly on my ongoing CSA supply.

But I’m not going to rush out and buy an N95 respirator facemask. The current recommendations from CDC do not recommend facemasks for the general public. They are only recommended for people who are sick or for those who are caring for someone who is sick. This and the other CDC recommendations for treatment and prevention can be found on this helpful page.

The key thing to remember in trying to avoid catching COVID-19, as described in the video above and on the CDC page linked just above, is to avoid being very close to sick people. The guideline mentioned is six feet. If you see someone who looks symptomatic, it shouldn’t be too hard to stay six feet from them. Also, if the virus is known or suspected to be in the area where you are, be especially careful to keep your hands below your shoulders at all times and to wash your hands frequently if visiting public places. As CDC describes here, transmission is thought primarily to be through aerosol droplets such as sneezes and coughs, but it remains possible that the virus could be picked up by touching contaminated surfaces.

Finally, people are also quite concerned about the prediction discussed here by Professor Marc Lipsich, an epidemiologist at Harvard. He has stated that it’s possible that a COVID-19 pandemic could result in 40-70% of people world-wide becoming infected. As Lipsich points out, however, that estimate must be coupled with the realization that we currently have no good estimate for what percentage of people who become infected develop few or no symptoms. In fact, moving out from his discussion, there currently are widely ranging estimates of what percentage of infected people die. Inside Wuhan, where the virus first emerged, estimates now are that 2.8% of those infected die. Outside Wuhan, however, that number drops to 0.18%, a difference of over 15-fold. For a discussion of how early we are in the process of understanding the epidemiology of this virus and why these numbers differ, see this paper.

For perspective, it appears that COVID-19 spreads far more efficiently than SARS and MERS, but conversely, SARS and MERS killed a higher percentage of those infected. We see more COVID-19 deaths because many more people have been infected.


The featured image for this post is in the public domain and comes from CDC. Here is the caption CDC provides: “This illustration, created at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), reveals ultrastructural morphology exhibited by coronaviruses. Note the spikes that adorn the outer surface of the virus, which impart the look of a corona surrounding the virion, when viewed electron microscopically. A novel coronavirus, named Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), was identified as the cause of an outbreak of respiratory illness first detected in Wuhan, China in 2019. The illness caused by this virus has been named coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).” Credit for the image goes to Alissa Eckert, MS, Dan Higgins, MAM.

Tags: Centers for Disease Control, coronavirus, COVID-19, World Health Organization

https://www.emptywheel.net/2020/02/26/preparing-for-the-inevitable-coronavirus-disease-2019-outbreak/

Agelbert NOTE: You don't need to be a medical doctor to understand the method a corona virus uses to attack cells. Some knowledge of biology is important, of course, but the "how it works" of a corona virus can be grasped after some study and thought.

The video below gives you the basic idea. The deal with viruses in general is that they need cell reproductive machinery in order to be fruitful and 😈 multiply. Viruses are like microscopic safe crackers. They unluck protein "doors" on a cell wall by using their set of "tools" to fool the cell wall into allowing entry by molecular mimicking of a protein the cell needs to absorb. Corona viruses are even more efficient at doing that because they have those "tools" sticking way out all over their outer surface (i.e. the protrusions made of various safe cracking proteins that make the "crown" that gives the little bugger the "corona" virus name).

You see, at the cellular level, everything (i.e. immune system defense and offense) is about DISTANCE. Within a certain distance of a cell wall, an immune system response (i.e. chemtaxis) is triggered which, after a series of chemical steps, identifies the virus as an invader to be both defended from (i.e. close all the cell wall doors until it goes away) and call the antibody troops to attack the virus.

The "tools" sticking out of the corona virus enable it to get closer to the cell wall protein "doors" than a virus without said handy protrusions.


In the illustration below, some attacker proteins are not as far out as the S-Protein reddish ones, which are primarily responsible for the ability of the corona virus to attach, hang on to, and open the doors to let the other attacker proteins in.


Thus the corona virus can sneak attack and enter a cell before the general alarm is put out by chemotaxis. If enough cells get infected, the host dies.

It's a war in there. You've heard the "might equals right" Social Darwinian term corollary that "The best defense is a good offense", haven't you. A lot of evil bastards live by that society destroying stupidity. Well, in your body, the TRUTH of the biological REALITY matter is that the best offense is a good defense.

That applies to a lot more than microbiology, but I digress. Enjoy the video and defend your health and that of those around you with kindness, care and altruism, not 🦀 Trumpian society (and biosphere) destroying "survival of the meanest MF around" Social Darwinsim.


« Last Edit: March 01, 2020, 02:53:41 pm by AGelbert »
Rob not the poor, because he is poor: neither oppress the afflicted in the gate:
For the Lord will plead their cause, and spoil the soul of those that spoiled them. Pr. 22:22-23

 

+-Recent Topics

Experts Knew a Pandemic Was Coming. Here’s What They’re Worried About Next. by Surly1
May 12, 2020, 07:46:22 am

Doomstead Diner Daily by Surly1
May 12, 2020, 07:40:17 am

Profiles in Courage by AGelbert
May 09, 2020, 11:47:35 pm

Money by AGelbert
May 09, 2020, 11:27:30 pm

Creeping Police State by AGelbert
May 09, 2020, 10:35:38 pm

COVID-19 🏴☠️ Pandemic by AGelbert
May 09, 2020, 10:19:30 pm

Resisting Brainwashing Propaganda by AGelbert
May 09, 2020, 10:07:28 pm

Corruption in Government by AGelbert
May 09, 2020, 09:54:48 pm

🚩 Global Climate Chaos ☠️ by AGelbert
May 09, 2020, 09:10:24 pm

Intelligent Design by AGelbert
May 09, 2020, 06:38:41 pm